Mid-Season Questions Answered

Been fielding a lot of informal questions during this extraordinary baseball season. Here are some of them...

Q. Is the ball juiced?
A. Some research, to which I've previously alluded, seems to indicate it's bouncier and the seams are flatter. The differences are minute but they add up over thousands of pitches thrown, which only takes a few games. I doubt it's purposeful but it seems to be a factor in all the long balls.

Q. Are all the home runs and strikeouts bad for baseball?
A. All the talk about home runs and strikeouts being bad for baseball is bad for baseball. The game itself is fine. If no one informed you about all the home runs and strikeouts you would hardly realize it by watching. 

The difference between this remarkable season and the previous record for home runs is a bomb every 10 games per team. Let's say you're a Padres fan,* would you even notice an extra blast every two weeks?

* I picked them to avoid confusion because there aren't actually any Padre fans.

Sure, a large number of strikeouts and walks is dull. Home runs are exciting and make every lead a hair-trigger situation. So on balance, let's just enjoy the games.

Q. Can Aaron Judge keep this up? Will he win the MVP?
A. It's always unlikely that the hottest player in the game will remain that hot all season, and that's particularly true of anyone who has never done it before. And it's double true with a cherry on top when his BABIP is .400. At the same time, only a truly good hitter can produce an 1.150 OPS over 80 games. So I expect Judge to regress some, but he's obviously a very good hitter. By the way, he's also athletic despite his size and has flashed solid defensive and base running skills.

Q. Are the Twins really this good?
A. "This" is the illusion of weak competition. The Twins are barely a .500 team, but because the rest of the division's GPS is recalculating, they've been occupying first place. So sure, they can continue to play .500 ball and finish 10 games out of first.

Q. Are the Phillies really this bad?
A. We have this false notion that a franchise that flips its veterans for minor league talent will automatically contend five years later. It turns out the young prospects acquired by the Phillies just aren't that good, whether because of talent or development. The Braves are experiencing the same problem, though they have executed some wily trades and signings of veterans and earned an upgrade to mediocrity.

Q. Which team currently under .500 has the best chance of earning a playoff spot?
A.  With the Rockies possibly fading, I'd say ... the Cardinals? If the Mets get healthy-ish it could be them.

Q. Is all this launch angle and exit velocity stuff just a fad? Don't you still have to hit the ball to be good?
A. Oh yeah, just like the running craze. In the 70s, people would get up early in the morning, put on sweats and special running shoes, eat some high protein food like an egg or a shake, and go outside to run for miles. Just run, and end up right back where they started. I couldn't wait for that fad to end.

Q. Some folks are saying the Orioles are just awful but it's being camouflaged by their hot start. Do you think they're awful and should blow it up?
A. The people who say the Orioles are awful said the Orioles were awful in 2016. And 2015. And 2014, 2013 and 2012. During that time they won the division once, the Wild Card twice and never finished under .500. I think the Orioles are less awful than the projection tools of those who denigrate the Orioles.

That said, man their pitching sucks.

Q. Is Craig Kimbrel going to the Hall of Fame?
A. I'm sure he can afford a flight to Albany and a car rental to Cooperstown.

As for enshrinement, it's so tricky with relievers. At this moment, there is not a single pitcher in the Hall who was primarily a closer. Rivera will be the first. 

That said, Kimbrel's leading the league in saves for the fifth time in nine years and sports a 1.80 career ERA and 14.6 strikeouts per 9 innings. Let's see him do that for another eight years and then I'll guarantee him entrance without a ticket.

Q. Which active players would make the Hall if they retired today?
A. Pujols, Ichiro, Cabrera, Kershaw (it's his 10th season), Beltre, Beltran. Maybe Cano.

Q. Who will be the next guy after that group into Cooperstown?
A. Buster Posey? Heck, it might be Trout. He's already 13th in WAR among active players.

Also, I didn't include Utley, but he's right on the borderline. Easy now to forget how terrific he was '05-'09.

Q. Who was on your All-Star ballot?
A. I doubt you want to read the whole thing. I did put Trout on the team so he can be honored and replaced by Mookie Betts. I chose Paul Goldschmidt over Ryan Zimmerman, Joey Votto and the injured Freddie Freeman for NL first baseman, and Justin Smoak over Logan Morrison for AL first baseman, mostly because Smoak is from my neck of the woods. NL third base was the toughest pick with Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Justin Turner, Jake Lamb and Travis Shaw. I picked Arenado.

Q. What if the Cubs are like this all season?
A. Imagine the NL Central champ with 84 wins. But I really do believe they have too much talent (and money) to be this middling for an entire season. The rotation is their Achilles heal right now and they can always go into the market for a pitcher. Or, they can just reload next year.

Q. Are the Nats toast with that bullpen?
A. They'd cruise into the playoffs with 50 Cent as their closer, so the question is about the post-season. The benefit of having one truly glaring need is that it's easy to fill that hole and instantly improve. So Washington will snag a closer and set-up man before the trade deadline passes.

Q. How good does Bryce Harper have to be in his career to not be considered a bust?
A. He's got to be near Hall worthy. Keep in mind, though, he's younger than Aaron Judge and already owns 26 WAR. He's almost a lock for 60 or 70 career WAR, which puts him in the Hall conversation.

Q. I'm a Met fan. Woe is me. What should we do?
A. Wail unceasingly. Rend garments. 

At least you have the Jets and Kni...nevermind.

Q. If you were a member of a championship team, would you go to the White House to meet the President?
A. Of course. This isn't about the buffoon in office; it's about our team's accomplishment being honored at the White House. 

But I'd leave my wife home.

Q. Why are there no Lavar Balls in baseball?
A. For the same reason there were no Lavar Balls in any sport until this year. Guy is a genius who has made himself rich and famous. And anyone who pays more than 50 bucks for his sneakers is a moron.

Q. From the influx of young infielders who burst on the scene together, who do you think we'll be remembering in 20 years and who will turn out to be pretenders?
A. I don't think any of them are pretenders. Carlos Correa, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Xander Boegarts, Andrelton Simmons, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have all proven they're the real deals. The days of shortstops and second basemen being the weakest hitters are over for a while.

Q. Should the Yankees acquire a pitcher at the trade deadline?
A. They have to be very careful not to mortgage the future. They're a juggernaut waiting to happen and they can't allow premature success to divert them from their plan. Or, they could, and that would be fine with me.

Q. The Giants' record in the second half will be...
A. .500 or better. They're not this bad and Bumgarner returns. But prognosticating baseball is for fools who are soon parted from their money.

Q. What player's absence would hurt his team most?
A. Chris Sale or Max Scherzer. Neither team has the rotation to incur the loss of their ace.

Q. Same question with position players only.
A. It'd be interesting to see how many other Yankees would fall off if they lost Judge.

Arenado off the Rockies would hurt because his defense polishes up the pitching and Colorado has to hang onto that Wild Card for 81 games.

Q. Joey Gallo has 20 homers and 13 singles. Have you ever seen anything like that?
A. I wrote about Adam Dunn doing that a few years back, but it wasn't such a wide margin. Gallo is the new breed of Three True Outcomes hitter -- young and athletic.  Guy is sub-Mendoza but playing regularly because of the jacks and his defense and base running.

Q. You've made a habit of denigrating Derek Jeter's diving catch into the stands. So what was the best catch you've ever seen?
A. It's not denigrating Jeter's catch to point out the fact that he didn't come anywhere near diving into the stands to make it. He caught the ball in fair territory 15 feet from the stands, took two long strides and then flung himself over the railing. We see catches this good or better twice a week on Web Gems, but because they weren't made by Derek Jeter, they're forgotten five minutes later.

Here's a screen grab of your diving catch in the stands.

The best catch I've ever seen was made by Garry Matthews Jr. and has never received its due.

Q. Why do you suck?
A. Because I drink through a straw.

...and on that note, Happy Independence Day and let's have a great second half of the season.

Chris Davis Regressing To His True Mean

An axiom of prognosticating the future performance of veterans who break out is to regress them back to the mean. Last year, Chris Davis regressed to the mean, the meaner and the meanest, putting his starting job with Baltimore in jeopardy.

This year, the bulky first baseman has found his own true average by mashing like he did in 2013 but without the gaudy average. The point with him is that as long as he goes yard and collects his walks he can be awfully valuable.

Let's take a look at the numbers:

In his first four seasons with Texas and Baltimore, Davis contributed below-average production at the plate while flashing 20-home-run power.

Then in 2013 he raked .286/.370/.634 with a league-leading 53 homers, 42 doubles and 138 RBIs, earning third place in the MVP voting.

Last season, the bottom fell out. His average sank to .196 with 26 home runs. Lumbering and defensively-challenged, Davis was a liability for the Orioles.

If you averaged those two seasons you'd get a .250 batting average with 40 home runs. With 60-70 walks, that's a middle-of-the-lineup Gulliver. Davis was headed that way, but at a lower batting average until he got hot, roughly coinciding with the O's collapse.

Today Chris Davis has the slash line up to .260/.351/.556 with 41 home runs. He's above four wins over replacement at the plate, which puts him at All-Star level with two dozen games yet to play.

When three true outcomes players like Davis -- i.e., he walks, strikes out or homers on most at bats -- get their average up to .260 they radically enhance their value, even beyond their own stat line. Opposing pitchers have to account for him every time the top of the order rolls around because of the damage he can do. That means pitching more carefully to everyone else, which leads to more opportunities up and down the lineup.

Davis is unlikely to ever again crush the record books the way he did two years ago. But .260 with 70 walks and 40 home runs will do just fine.

Adam Dunn's Nose Runs and His Feet Smell

If you want a bust in Cooperstown, either dominate the game for six or seven years, or compete at a high level for 20. You might call these the Sandy Koufax and Don Sutton methods, respectively.

But this isn't about the Hall of Fame at all. It's about Adam Dunn.
 
One method of determining with numerical analysis whether a contender is Hall-worthy is to measure his peak value -- the value he added to his team over some arbitrary number of his best years. In his six transcendent seasons, Koufax posted 46.6 wins against replacement. That's all the more astonishing because his total career value is only 53.2 WAR.

That's because the six seasons in which his performance looked like this -- 25-5, 1.88 -- followed six seasons that looked like this -- 11-11, 4.48. His career was a deep valley bordering a high mountain.

Wait til you hear about Adam Dunn.

Sutton, on the other hand, was more like a mesa, a high, flat plain. His peak six seasons only produced 31 wins against replacement for the Dodgers but his career mark of 68.7 outshines Koufax's. Sutton's best season, 1972 (19-9, 2.08), didn't look extraordinarily different from a below average season, say 1982 (13-8, 3.00).

Which brings us, mercifully, to Adam Dunn. The Big Donkey will see himself in Cooperstown only after purchasing admittance and looking in the bathroom mirror. What makes him special is his peak and career value.

Dunn is one of the very few players in baseball history whose peak value is higher than his career value. Dunn's top seven seasons (that's the number chosen for peak value by the respected JAWS system, developed by and named for former Baseball Prospectus writer Jay Jaffe) produced 16.5 wins. In his salad days, Dunn's batting average hovered around .250, he walked 100+ times and he socked 38 or more homers eight times. That was enough to overcome the face plant he did in the field. 

In his six worst seasons, Dunn has been an albatross, most notably in 2011, when he batted .159 with 11 homers in 496 plate appearances that made women and children weep. He cost the White Sox three wins that year compared to a Triple-A DH/left-fielder.

Adam Dunn is no stranger to nose-run/feet-smell kinds of results. Five times in his career (2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012) Dunn has compiled more extra base hits than singles. As of last year, only five players in baseball history with 1000+ plate appearances had more extra base hits than singles for their career, including Dunn. Sadly, he fell of the list in 2013 by banging just 49 of his 115 hits for multiple bases. (Giancarlo Stanton also exited the august group, which means the list is down to three.)

Here's another Escher drawing of Dunn's career: in 2011, Dunn walked more often than he hit safely. (In 2008 he walked exactly as often.) In the last 40 years, that has been accomplished just 23 times (minimum 450 plate appearances), most notably by Barry Bonds, six times between '01 and '07. 

Here's one that very possibly stands alone in the annals of the game. In 2009, the giant righty slugged 38 home runs for the Washington Nationals, got on base just under 40% of the time, produced an OPS 44% above league average and added four wins of value at the plate. And produced below-replacement value overall. How hard is that? He stole no bases, needed a triple to advance from first to second, and displayed all the defensive range of a cactus. For his career, Adam Dunn has cost his teams 28 wins in the field, despite DHing the last three years.

We'll not see quite the likes of Adam Dunn again. This is a ballplayer who made the All-Star team one year while batting .204 (yet nonetheless producing an above-average on base percentage). He  slammed 206 homers over five years and never finished in the top 25 in MVP voting. He racked up 58 extra base hits in 2002 but only 75 RBI. He's walked, fanned or homered -- in other words did not put the ball in play -- more than half the time in his nearly 8,000 career plate appearances.

Funn with Dunn. Enjoy it while you can.

A Tale of Two Sluggers

It was the best of starts. It was the worst of starts. Two all-or-nothing sluggers are providing their teams with a bit of all and a bit of nothing, and the contrast is instructive.

Mark Reynolds is now donning Indian garb, swinging his Three True Outcomes stick in Cleveland.  Reynolds is the owner of three 204+ strikeout seasons, four 74+ walk seasons and three 32+ home run seasons. 

He's following in the gigantic footsteps of 285-pound Adam Dunn, he of 409 lifetime home runs, 2055 whiffs and 1173 free passes. The Big Donkey is coming off a season in which he batted just .204 but gave the White Sox 105 walks and 41 home runs.

For both these players, it's really all about batting average. Even amassing big piles of walks and long balls, they're not real valuable without a few other hits sprinkled in. Dunn's hitting was 12% above average last year; add in his utter lack of baserunning or defensive value and he was pretty close to replacement level despite leaving the yard 41 times. With Reynolds, it's the same equation with a little more defensive and baserunning prowess, but fewer jogs to first.

With one-tenth of the season in the books, Reynolds is getting it done for the Tribe, collecting seven homers and an 1.128 OPS. Dunn is coming undone: three homers and a .454 OPS. One other detail is worth noting:

Mark Reynolds .298/391/.737, 8BB/15K, 7HR
Adam Dunn .108/.159/.295  3BB/26K, 3HR

Dunn is fanning in nearly half his plate appearances, which leaves little opportunity to be productive. Reynolds is making more contact, which leads to more of everything good.

This bodes very poorly for the White Sox, who are paying Dunn for his prodigious Big Fly tendencies accompanied by tolerable batting averages in the .230s. Since he arrived on the South Side in 2011, he's averaged .179/.307/.374, 28 homers, 95 BB and 219 K per 150 games. Not only is Chicago not getting its $15 million worth, it's not getting roster spot value. And the small sample size excuse doesn't work here because it's 289 games of data.

It's very early in 2013 and sluggers are notoriously streaky, so there's hope for Adam Dunn. The tables have turned and now Mark Reynolds is Dunn's guide. But he'll have to dig back to 2010 to turn things around.

Piercing Insights To Shock and Amaze

Momentary lasers of brilliance that couldn't wait to be disseminated to the world...

Big Donkey Still Kickin'

Adam Dunn wasn't nicknamed The Big Donkey to denote grace and beauty afield. Mostly the White Sox hide his glove and pencil in his name as DH. He's hitting .209 and following a record-setting strikeout trajectory with 172.

And he's worth nearly two wins compared to a replacement DH.

That's because Dunn leads the AL in home runs and walks too, giving him a respectable .342 OBP and an exemplary .494 SLG. By way of comparison, Reds sparkplug Brandon Phillips is batting 80 points higher but has posted an OBP 12 points lower.

Dunn is a quintessential Three True Outcomes (TTO) hitter: of his 512 plate appearances he's actually tested the opponent's defense just 214 times. The other 298 trips have comprised walks, strikeouts, HBP or balls hit out of the park. His infield teammate (when Sox manager Robin Ventura saddles his defense with Dunn at first), Gordon Beckham has made the defense work 333 times in just 445 plate appearances. Dunn's TTO score is 58.2%; Beckham's a more average 25.2%.

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Run-Run-Run-Runaway

If high drama is your cup of tea, the MVP race in each league is a steaming mug of strychnine. 

With a quarter of the season left, Miguel Cabrera, has a .990 OPS, 31 HR and 104 RBI, and has posted an offensive value in the five-win range. And he's a distant second in the MVP race. 

Angels phenom Mike Trout, with a 1.011 OPS and 39 steals in 42 attempts (zounds!) is worth nearly seven wins to his team -- and that's before you subtract Cabrera's third base butchery and add Trout's brilliance at the premium midfield position. 

Unless Trout tanks, Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Robinson Cano, Edwin Encarnacion, AJ Pierzynski and others will have to settle for an attaboy from their manager (and perhaps a World Series ring).

Likewise in the NL, where Melky Cabrera has turned into a pumpkin and Joey Votto's injury has removed him from contention. Pirate center fielder Andrew McCuthcen's 1.020 OPS and fielding genius has also lapped the field. Barring a McCutchen face plant down the stretch, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and David Wright will battle for silver (and probably no World Series appearances). 

Same for the Rookie of the Year award. Try a cuppa Joe.

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The Cat Says, Do It Now

Bobby Valentine could do something immediately to boost the Red Sox fortunes: Whisper the following to his disappointing left fielder, "Carl, have the surgery now."

Carl Crawford has played just 30 games this year due to a torn elbow ligament. He needs Tommy John surgery but a chivalrous streak has kept him from abandoning his troubled teammates and their late-season Wild Card run.

"What late season Wild Card run," you may have asked yourself, or your cat, who was minding her own important business, consisting largely of staring blankly into space or licking her private parts and swallowing the loose hair, for re-purposing later on the carpet. 

Exactly. 

Recovery from the TJ surgery will take six-to-nine months. (Recovery from the hairball will take several minutes and also involve labored breathing.) If Crawford hangs on for Boston's inevitable demise on Oct. 3, his healthy return for the 2013 campaign might be delayed into summer. Going under the knife next week virtually guarantees his availability at the start of the 2013 season, when the Red Sox won't be seven games in the hole.

With improved pitching that will result from the natural evolution of I haven't the foggiest idea, Boston plans to contend in 2013, and for that they need the contributions from Crawford that they paid for in the 2011 off-season. 

It's certainly possible that Fenway's brutal mound corps could catch fire pigs fly just as David Ortiz returns to a newly-rejuvenated lineup hell freezes over, leading New England's favorites out from the sub-.500 abyss chicken have teeth and past the five teams ahead of them for the Wild Card on a week with two Thursdays. That kind of miracle could occur, as this Boston contingent knows all too well, but if Crawford wants to play the odds, sticking around the rest of this season is like betting that fish will climb trees.

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He Can't Go Home Again

If Hanley Ramirez has a home in Miami, he might want to reconsider returning there following the season. After blasting the Marlins with his suck ray in 2011 and 2012, he's delivered .330/.392/.549 and good defense to the Dodgers, including four homers in a three game set against his old compadres. In just 23 games in L.A., Ramirez has been worth more to his team than in the previous 185 games in Florida.

Think they want to string him up in the Sunshine State?

Now if the Dodgers are smart, they'll flip Hanley's re-motivated self to another club while his value remains spiked and let his next sulk come at someone else's expense. That might ease the pain endured by the franchise from the re-signing of another Ramirez in 2009 to a disastrous two-year, $45 million deal after he temporarily re-discovered his inspiration with them in the 2008 season.

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The Devil's Good Side

While maintaining that expanded playoffs are the devil's workshop, I have to admit that the massive disadvantage bestowed in the new format upon Wild Card teams is shooting bolts of interest into the division races.

This year, it matters whether Chicago or Detroit wins the AL Central, or whether L.A. or San Francisco takes the NL West, even if the loser earns a post-season consolation prize. The loser's playoff fortunes will ride on a one-game, anything goes play-in game, followed by a division series in which they may have already burned their top starter.

The result: the consolation prize won't be worth anything to 50% of the teams that grab it, and even advancement into the playoffs will still entail a climb over the odds.

Expect two positive developments from the new post-season scenario:

1. Despite a doubling of Wild Card qualifiers, there will be a small decline in Wild Card teams making the World Series. 

2. The Wild Card game will be considered by baseball fandom to be a play-in, not a playoff, and teams that succumb in that  match will not be generally understood as having made the post-season.