You have questions? I have answers. Some of them are even right answers.
These are the questions baseball fans have been sending my way lately:
Q. Can the Indians return to the World Series next year?
A. Which is to say, can they make the playoffs? Fo' shizzle. Their two injured starters return to join my Cy Young pick, Cory Kluber, and Trevor Bauer is poised to take the next step. They lose Mike Napoli's bat but add by subtraction in the field. If Michael Brantley can return to anything like his 2015 self in 2017, and Lindor, Naquin and Ramirez avoid catastrophic sophomore slumps, they could be even better. With the Royals, White Sox and Twins reeling, only the Detroits have the stuff to challenge Believeland.
Q. When does the Yankees' rebuild pay off?
A.
Sooner than any of us want it to. They very likely have the best Minor
League system in baseball today, and that's even after Gary Sanchez and
Greg Bird made The Show.
Q. Should the Mets sign Yoenis Cespedes?
A. It's not my money, so sure! The Amazins can hurl with anyone, particularly with Gsellman in the mix and a potential Wheeler bounce-back, but they have fewer bats than an aquarium. Getting Neil Walker back is nice, but the Mets had better sign someone who can thump or the fans will be doing the hurling. They can sign Cespedes for some gargantuan contract that he won't be worth, once again playing three left fielders in their outfield. But who's the alternative -- DH Edwin Encarnacion? DH-in-waiting Jose Bautista?
Q. Which is the worst team in baseball next year?
A. i wouldn't bet against the Reds.
Q. What should the Jays do about their two big free agents?
A. Toronto is in a pickle. Lose Bautista and Encarnacion and there go 70 home runs out the door. Each is expecting the kind of deal that could sink a team as they age poorly. The Blue Jays are too good to punt and too smart to bankrupt the future on a 36-year-old defensive liability. I think the brass are hoping the market for Bautista cools and they can reclaim him for a reasonable amount.
Q. Is Andrew McCutchen over?
A. Boy, that would be precipitous -- from the game's most dynamic player to replacement level in one year. Regression to the mean suggests he'll be a 3-4 win player next season -- very good, but not the 'Cutch we knew. After that he's 31.
Q. How good can the Mets be next season? They were ravaged by injuries in '16 but overperformed; could they get a lot better and win fewer games in '17?
A. Depends on the sticks. The lineup they have today couldn't beat O'Neil's Texaco from the Bay Village Little League. They need to find some lumber, whether from inside the roster or plucked off another one. Add some scoring to 140 starts out of deGrom, Syndergaard, Gsellman, Harvey, Wheeler and Matz, and they're a serious World Series contender.
Q. Is there anyone on the free agent wire who can help my Orioles pitching staff?
A. Zippo, zilch, nada, nuttin, nil. Rich Hill's the best moundsman out there and he's 37 with 24 good starts in his pocket.
Q. Are we forgetting about Buster Posey?
A. Who? His output dipped 50 points of OPS in his age 29 season but he's still an above-average hitter with mad framing skills who was worth four wins to the Giants. He's a Hall of Fame argument, depending on how he ages, and still one of the best receivers in the game. It wouldn't surprise me if he hit .300 next year with a bump in home runs and 5+ wins of value.
Q. Who is the most under-rated player in baseball?
A. There are two variables in that question, one of which is, how is a particular player "rated." For the past two years I've touted Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich. The low-key 24-year-old has a Gold Glove, a Sliver Slugger and a .293/.368/.483 batting line over a three-and-a-half year career.
Q. Didn't Ian Kinsler sort-of get his wish?
A. When the Rangers flipped him to Detroit for Prince Fielder before the 2014 season, Kinsler called GM Jon Daniels a "sleazeball" and wished a 0-162 record on Texas. Since then, he's added 18 wins and a division title to the Tigers, but Texas has won its division each of the last two seasons, even as injuries ended Fielder's career prematurely. So assuming Kinsler hates the Rangers and not Prince Fielder, all he has is the satisfaction that his side got the better of the deal.
Q. What can we reasonably expect from Gary Sanchez in 2017?
A. Not that. Fangraphs projects .268/.329/.490 with 26 home runs and four wins against replacement. Pretty good for $540,000.
Q. It felt like Terry Francona out foxed Joe Maddon in the World Series. Why does everyone love Maddon?
A. For all the right reasons. He's smart and open to new ideas. His players love playing for him. He keeps it light over 162 games. He knows his players and never panics. That said, I agree that Tito did a great job of matching his limited assets -- most notably Cory Kluber and Andrew Miller -- against the Cubs' deep vein of talent.
Q. I can't decide whether Hal Steinbrenner is a better owner than his father. George was a lunatic but his teams won.
A. That's not technically a question, frequently asked or otherwise. It's a different time now. George could bully the rest of baseball then in a way Hal can't today. New York enjoyed advantages -- not just financial-- that pre-dated the luxury tax, shared revenue and a social media landscape that makes anywhere the center of the media world depending on who's Tweeting. George's brand of insanity would be a colossal failure today.
Q. You made it pretty clear that you think Donald Trump is a sociopath. What policies of his are you rooting for?
A. My problem with Trump is not partisan; who even knows where he stands on the issues? The problem is he's a despicable human being who remains willfully ignorant of the job he sought. Replacing the Affordable Care Act and enforcing some fiscal discipline would be welcome developments, though I have zero faith he will accomplish either.
Q. What is ahead for Bryce Harper? He was the world's best player in 2015 and then hit .243 last year.
A. Almost no one's career progresses in a straight line. Harper appeared to be dinged up last year, yet he managed a .373 OBP, 24 homers and three wins against replacement. His 2015 might have been a one-off, but Fangraphs projects a big bounce back for him, particularly in the power department.
Q. What do the Cubs do if Jason Heyward continues to suck?
A. The only thing that's certain is that they'll keep paying him through 2023.
Q. Where does Aroldis Chapman land and for how much?
A. Are we assuming he's chasing the cash? Word is he and the Yankees are courting.
Q. Am I crazy or is this Hot Stove season shaping up as the worst ever? The free agent crop is garbage.
A. The free agent crop is mostly garbage. As for your mental health, you should see a professional.
Q. Who is going to be the best free agent pickup this winter?
A. Ian Desmond? Versatile defenders with broad skill sets tend to have high floors, and speedsters tend to age well. Plus he's good looking and of uncertain ethnicity.
That's enough for now. Keep those cards and letters coming. And try to put the questions in question form.
Showing posts with label Buster Posey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buster Posey. Show all posts
22 November 2016
24 May 2015
Where Are the All-Time Greats?
A recent spate of Hall of Fame retirements has transformed today's Major Leagues from a repository of the enshrined to a roster of stars whose exact composition is a mystery. Players who are Hall of Fame locks right now number three: Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki and Miguel Cabrera.
Compare that to 10 years ago when Alex Rodriguez could have cruised into Cooperstown with hardly a dissenter. Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Derek Jeter, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Mussina, Kurt Schilling, Greg Madduz, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine were all dancing their waltzes into baseball history.
Purely on the merits, of course, ARod is a no doubter, just as Bonds and Clemens were. The forecast for any of them seeing their bust carved is partly dubious with a chance of impossible. Illicit performance boosting may also work against the borderline case of David Ortiz. Infielders Chase Utley and Adrian Beltre have to rate as probably nots, barring late career second acts (or third acts in Beltre's case.) Carlos Beltran's candidacy depends on how much voters have evolved to appreciate all-around skills, and then which way their coins toss.
Of course, there are some mid-career probablies out there. You have to like Buster Posey's chances, particularly if he can remain behind the plate. On top of his lifetime .300+ batting average, he owns a Rookie of the Year, an MVP and three World Championships. In his sixth season, at age 28, Posey is at it again, posting a .314 TAv.
Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Craig Kimbrel are on promising trajectories as well, though Kimbrel has been lit up in 16 innings this year and Kershaw's powers seemed to have disappeared, Samson-style, with the loss of his hair, in his case facial. Those last three names illuminate how wanting the Majors are today in pitching greatness. The top active hurling careers belong to Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Adam Wainright, Chris Carpenter and Joe Nathan, fine moundsmen all, but hardly bronze material. Other than King Felix, there will not be a single legitimate pitching candidate for a decade or so after the current backlog clears out.
Then there is Yadier Molina, who needs to keep hitting in the sunset years of his career to be considered this generation's Ivan Rodriguez. Twenty-nine-year-old Evan Longoria has a shot if he returns to the form of his first five full seasons. Joey Votto would have to maintain that consistent excellence for another decade to earn Hall stripes. And we can always dream on the second and third-year players like Puig, Cespedes, Harvey, Abreu and their ilk. But potential outnumbers fruition by a healthy margin.
Experience tells us that a couple of those named will slide off the list, just as Nomar Garciaparra, Tim Lincecum and Joe Mauer did. And others will climb on, following a path paved by Paul Molitor and Sandy Koufax, to name two. Still, it's likely that the ballot clogging now vexing Hall of Fame voting will not be an issue a decade or two from now.
Compare that to 10 years ago when Alex Rodriguez could have cruised into Cooperstown with hardly a dissenter. Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Derek Jeter, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Mussina, Kurt Schilling, Greg Madduz, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine were all dancing their waltzes into baseball history.
Purely on the merits, of course, ARod is a no doubter, just as Bonds and Clemens were. The forecast for any of them seeing their bust carved is partly dubious with a chance of impossible. Illicit performance boosting may also work against the borderline case of David Ortiz. Infielders Chase Utley and Adrian Beltre have to rate as probably nots, barring late career second acts (or third acts in Beltre's case.) Carlos Beltran's candidacy depends on how much voters have evolved to appreciate all-around skills, and then which way their coins toss.
Of course, there are some mid-career probablies out there. You have to like Buster Posey's chances, particularly if he can remain behind the plate. On top of his lifetime .300+ batting average, he owns a Rookie of the Year, an MVP and three World Championships. In his sixth season, at age 28, Posey is at it again, posting a .314 TAv.
Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Craig Kimbrel are on promising trajectories as well, though Kimbrel has been lit up in 16 innings this year and Kershaw's powers seemed to have disappeared, Samson-style, with the loss of his hair, in his case facial. Those last three names illuminate how wanting the Majors are today in pitching greatness. The top active hurling careers belong to Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Adam Wainright, Chris Carpenter and Joe Nathan, fine moundsmen all, but hardly bronze material. Other than King Felix, there will not be a single legitimate pitching candidate for a decade or so after the current backlog clears out.
Then there is Yadier Molina, who needs to keep hitting in the sunset years of his career to be considered this generation's Ivan Rodriguez. Twenty-nine-year-old Evan Longoria has a shot if he returns to the form of his first five full seasons. Joey Votto would have to maintain that consistent excellence for another decade to earn Hall stripes. And we can always dream on the second and third-year players like Puig, Cespedes, Harvey, Abreu and their ilk. But potential outnumbers fruition by a healthy margin.
Experience tells us that a couple of those named will slide off the list, just as Nomar Garciaparra, Tim Lincecum and Joe Mauer did. And others will climb on, following a path paved by Paul Molitor and Sandy Koufax, to name two. Still, it's likely that the ballot clogging now vexing Hall of Fame voting will not be an issue a decade or two from now.
01 February 2014
A Post With Tremendous Impact
When Congress was battling last year over maintaining reduced tax rates for everyone but wealthiest households, it was my opinion that the proposal on the table was a reasonable offset to all the reductions in services and increases in fees and taxes that everyone else was going to have to endure. It seemed to me that if we were going to slash services for households with low income, as surely we must given our Everest of debt, it's only fair that it be paired with a small sacrifice from those who can most afford it and will be least affected.
Democrats ultimately won that small concession, after which I awaited their plan to begin slashing the deficit without stunting growth. It never came. And so, in my mind, we have a situation reminiscent of a car commercial decrying "or" in favor of "and," as in sweet or sour chicken, cops who serve or protect, and staying in a bed or breakfast.
Similar sentiments accompany discussions among the lords of baseball with respect to the home plate collision. Evidently some higher ups, recalling the devastating crash that wrecked Buster Posey's ankle and leg in 2011 -- so injurious was it that he returned in 2012 and won the NL MVP and the World Series -- are seeking ways to outlaw this violent encounter.
I'm all for it. The human wreck takes place at no other base and is borne of two peculiarities of the play at home: runners can overrun the base without penalty and catchers, emboldened by body armor, physically block the base without the ball.
These two issues are as conjoined as Chang and Eng Bunker. Attempting to eliminate one without the other will result in mayhem, the proverbial one hand clapping. If base runners are prohibited from mowing down catchers then catchers must not be allowed to impede the runners' progress. Like Tennille and The Captain, you can't have one without the oth -- oh, nevermind.
The point remains, ban bumper pool at fourth base, but only while enforcing the rule against blocking it without the ball. Impact isn't possible if there's no one there.
Now, if we could just get about reducing our nation's spending...
Democrats ultimately won that small concession, after which I awaited their plan to begin slashing the deficit without stunting growth. It never came. And so, in my mind, we have a situation reminiscent of a car commercial decrying "or" in favor of "and," as in sweet or sour chicken, cops who serve or protect, and staying in a bed or breakfast.
Similar sentiments accompany discussions among the lords of baseball with respect to the home plate collision. Evidently some higher ups, recalling the devastating crash that wrecked Buster Posey's ankle and leg in 2011 -- so injurious was it that he returned in 2012 and won the NL MVP and the World Series -- are seeking ways to outlaw this violent encounter.
I'm all for it. The human wreck takes place at no other base and is borne of two peculiarities of the play at home: runners can overrun the base without penalty and catchers, emboldened by body armor, physically block the base without the ball.
These two issues are as conjoined as Chang and Eng Bunker. Attempting to eliminate one without the other will result in mayhem, the proverbial one hand clapping. If base runners are prohibited from mowing down catchers then catchers must not be allowed to impede the runners' progress. Like Tennille and The Captain, you can't have one without the oth -- oh, nevermind.
The point remains, ban bumper pool at fourth base, but only while enforcing the rule against blocking it without the ball. Impact isn't possible if there's no one there.
Now, if we could just get about reducing our nation's spending...
29 July 2013
A Kick In the Shin: The Most Under-rated Player in Baseball
He's a leadoff hitter with a .417 OBP (second in the NL) and plenty of pop too -- 14 homers and 26 doubles/triples. His OPS of .883 is 40% better than average and 10th best in the league. He gets on base even more often -- half the time -- in high leverage situations, like late in close games.
He's worth four wins to his team at the plate, fifth in the league, and staffs the critical center field position. Not surprisingly, he's third in the league in runs scored, thanks also to a great number three hitter and good cleanup guy.
He's no flash-in-the-pan either: during his nine year career, he's hit .289/.387/.465, 33% above average.
And yet, he wasn't even seriously considered for the All-Star team and isn't on anyone's MVP preview list. You probably don't know anything about him. Shin-soo Choo may be the most under-rated player in Major League Baseball.
It may be that the low-key Korean native has suffered an identity crisis from playing in Cleveland and Cincinnati, two Ohio cities with small Korean populations. It could be that his skills don't light up the BA-HR-RBI stat meter that uneducated baseball fans still use. It could be that teammates like superstar Joey Votto and flashy Brandon Phillips have overshadowed him.
Whatever the reason, Choo would have to be on your short list of MVP candidates so far, along with Votto, David Wright, Buster Posey, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutcheon, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina and Carlos Gomez.
It's worth noting that nowhere near that list is Phillips, the walking highlight reel powered by joie de vivre and accompanied by a decent stick. But the suggestion by an MLB-employed "analyst" (who shall remain nameless to spare him further embarrassment) that Phillips is the NL MVP so far because of his league-leading RBI total is so utterly out-of-touch that he should be relieved of duties based on that one statement alone. (Ironically, the offending analyst was a reliever when he played ball.)
Phillips led the league in RBIs -- he doesn't anymore -- because Choo and Votto occupy the basepaths before him. Phillips himself is hitting just .261/.313/.403, which, though highly respectable for a second baseman, is below average overall. Not only does he enjoy the most RBI opportunities in the league by a wide margin, he also benefits disproportionately from runners in scoring position. Phillips is a laudable sixth in the league in converting those opportunities, but that's hardly MVP material. He's been worth about a win-and-a-half to the Reds, small potatoes compared to Choo.
It's tempting determine player value by this method:
1. Find an everyday performer on a good team with a high batting average and big home run totals
2. Season with steals and fielding
3. Factor in his position.
That would make us feel like we'd covered the bases. You're likely to find a good player that way, but our tools are so much more refined and thoughtful, and easily available. They help us determine that a quiet guy like Shin-soo Choo is far more valuable than his tweeting, fun-king teammate, Brandon Phillips.
He's worth four wins to his team at the plate, fifth in the league, and staffs the critical center field position. Not surprisingly, he's third in the league in runs scored, thanks also to a great number three hitter and good cleanup guy.
And yet, he wasn't even seriously considered for the All-Star team and isn't on anyone's MVP preview list. You probably don't know anything about him. Shin-soo Choo may be the most under-rated player in Major League Baseball.
It may be that the low-key Korean native has suffered an identity crisis from playing in Cleveland and Cincinnati, two Ohio cities with small Korean populations. It could be that his skills don't light up the BA-HR-RBI stat meter that uneducated baseball fans still use. It could be that teammates like superstar Joey Votto and flashy Brandon Phillips have overshadowed him.
Whatever the reason, Choo would have to be on your short list of MVP candidates so far, along with Votto, David Wright, Buster Posey, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutcheon, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina and Carlos Gomez.
It's worth noting that nowhere near that list is Phillips, the walking highlight reel powered by joie de vivre and accompanied by a decent stick. But the suggestion by an MLB-employed "analyst" (who shall remain nameless to spare him further embarrassment) that Phillips is the NL MVP so far because of his league-leading RBI total is so utterly out-of-touch that he should be relieved of duties based on that one statement alone. (Ironically, the offending analyst was a reliever when he played ball.)
Phillips led the league in RBIs -- he doesn't anymore -- because Choo and Votto occupy the basepaths before him. Phillips himself is hitting just .261/.313/.403, which, though highly respectable for a second baseman, is below average overall. Not only does he enjoy the most RBI opportunities in the league by a wide margin, he also benefits disproportionately from runners in scoring position. Phillips is a laudable sixth in the league in converting those opportunities, but that's hardly MVP material. He's been worth about a win-and-a-half to the Reds, small potatoes compared to Choo.
It's tempting determine player value by this method:
1. Find an everyday performer on a good team with a high batting average and big home run totals
2. Season with steals and fielding
3. Factor in his position.
That would make us feel like we'd covered the bases. You're likely to find a good player that way, but our tools are so much more refined and thoughtful, and easily available. They help us determine that a quiet guy like Shin-soo Choo is far more valuable than his tweeting, fun-king teammate, Brandon Phillips.
29 September 2012
Insurmountable Lead . . . Surmounted
Official award ballots have to be finalized on the last day of the regular season. I only get a vote in the tangled web of my mind, and perhaps in your heart, so I'm assembling them now.
Earlier this season, Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen had taken the trophies (if indeed there are trophies involved) and stashed them prematurely in their attics (if indeed they have attics.) Both had established nearly insurmountable leads on the field.
Then a funny thing happened. Miguel Cabrera made an historic run at the Triple Crown. Buster Posey squatted between his entire team's legs and carried the Giants to an easy division crown (if indeed there is a crown involved.) And McCutchen scuffled as the Pirates rediscovered gravity.
Trout's lock on the MVP has already been documented here. (That's not to say he will win it, especially if the Tigers make the playoffs and the Angels don't. Sportswriters still stuck in the Cretaceous Period continue to limit their options to the fortunate few who have the best teammates. It's just to say that he has earned it, with all due respect to Cabrera, the best hitter in the AL and maybe the game.)
Just to add one more log to the raging inferno of awe over Mike Trout's rookie season: with respect to wins above replacement per 100 games played -- remember that Trout wasn't called up until May -- the top 10 seasons of all time have been posted by Babe Ruth (four times), Barry Bonds (twice), Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, George Brett and now the Angels' center fielder. Trout's 2012 ranks ahead of all but Ruth's 1923 season. This was Ruth's listing in Baseball Reference for that year:
Dude had a 1.309 OPS, more than double the league average, with 399 total bases. He got on base nearly 55% of the time and scored 151 runs. Trout is second to that. And he can't legally drink yet. (This was never an issue for The Babe.)
But this is a post about the NL MVP, which many believe is back in play because McCutchen hasn't prevented the Bucs from tanking. They point out that he hit just .252/.347/.346 in August, when the team lost its bearings and lost17 of 28 games for the month. But Pittsburgh has collapsed to 6-20 in September despite McCutchen's .260/.372/.510 bounce back. (He just hit a walk-off home run for the win as I write this.) Nonetheless, there is no doubt that the peloton has reeled him in.
Let's compare him to his three primary competitors for MVP:
McCutchen .330/.403/.557 55.6 runs offensive value very good glove/premium position
Buster Posey .334/.407/.544 65.9 runs value good glove/78% of games at plus-plus position
Yadier Molina .320/.378/.512 53.4 runs value great glove/plus-plus position
Ryan Braun .319/.391/.602 53.9 runs value weak glove/non-premium position
Clearly the field has narrowed. I see a discernible difference between the top two -- McCutchen & Posey -- and the bottom two -- Molina and Braun. Posey's bat is McCutchen's equal under more difficult conditions. Moreover, returning from a catastrophic 2011 injury, he may have needed time to round into form. He's hit .384/.456/.641 in the second half while playing mostly behind the plate. His added punch has offset the damaging loss of Melky Cabrera to the Giants just when the NL West division battle was heating up.
The MVP crystal ball, once crystal clear, has fogged. I'd cast my ballot for Posey unless something stunning happens in the last six games. Does that take Scott Cousins off the hook?
Earlier this season, Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen had taken the trophies (if indeed there are trophies involved) and stashed them prematurely in their attics (if indeed they have attics.) Both had established nearly insurmountable leads on the field.
Then a funny thing happened. Miguel Cabrera made an historic run at the Triple Crown. Buster Posey squatted between his entire team's legs and carried the Giants to an easy division crown (if indeed there is a crown involved.) And McCutchen scuffled as the Pirates rediscovered gravity.
Trout's lock on the MVP has already been documented here. (That's not to say he will win it, especially if the Tigers make the playoffs and the Angels don't. Sportswriters still stuck in the Cretaceous Period continue to limit their options to the fortunate few who have the best teammates. It's just to say that he has earned it, with all due respect to Cabrera, the best hitter in the AL and maybe the game.)
Just to add one more log to the raging inferno of awe over Mike Trout's rookie season: with respect to wins above replacement per 100 games played -- remember that Trout wasn't called up until May -- the top 10 seasons of all time have been posted by Babe Ruth (four times), Barry Bonds (twice), Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, George Brett and now the Angels' center fielder. Trout's 2012 ranks ahead of all but Ruth's 1923 season. This was Ruth's listing in Baseball Reference for that year:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB |
|---|
| 1923 | 28 | NYY | AL | 152 | 697 | 522 | 151 | 205 | 45 | 13 | 41 | 131 | 17 | 21 | 170 | 93 | .393 | .545 | .764 | 1.309 | 239 | 399 |
Dude had a 1.309 OPS, more than double the league average, with 399 total bases. He got on base nearly 55% of the time and scored 151 runs. Trout is second to that. And he can't legally drink yet. (This was never an issue for The Babe.)
But this is a post about the NL MVP, which many believe is back in play because McCutchen hasn't prevented the Bucs from tanking. They point out that he hit just .252/.347/.346 in August, when the team lost its bearings and lost17 of 28 games for the month. But Pittsburgh has collapsed to 6-20 in September despite McCutchen's .260/.372/.510 bounce back. (He just hit a walk-off home run for the win as I write this.) Nonetheless, there is no doubt that the peloton has reeled him in.
Let's compare him to his three primary competitors for MVP:
McCutchen .330/.403/.557 55.6 runs offensive value very good glove/premium position
Buster Posey .334/.407/.544 65.9 runs value good glove/78% of games at plus-plus position
Yadier Molina .320/.378/.512 53.4 runs value great glove/plus-plus position
Ryan Braun .319/.391/.602 53.9 runs value weak glove/non-premium position
Clearly the field has narrowed. I see a discernible difference between the top two -- McCutchen & Posey -- and the bottom two -- Molina and Braun. Posey's bat is McCutchen's equal under more difficult conditions. Moreover, returning from a catastrophic 2011 injury, he may have needed time to round into form. He's hit .384/.456/.641 in the second half while playing mostly behind the plate. His added punch has offset the damaging loss of Melky Cabrera to the Giants just when the NL West division battle was heating up.
The MVP crystal ball, once crystal clear, has fogged. I'd cast my ballot for Posey unless something stunning happens in the last six games. Does that take Scott Cousins off the hook?
05 June 2012
A Walk In the Park
The Cubs and Giants squared off yesterday in a Monday matinee for the benefit of sabermetricians everywhere.
Each team posted eight hits, including one double. The Cubs added a stolen base. They also recorded a double play on defense and their pitchers fanned eight to the Giants' five. They strung together their hits better too, with four singles from five batters in the two-run second inning.
Advantage Chicago.
Except.
Five Bearcub hurlers issued seven free passes (to none by San Francisco's Ryan Vogelsong and Jeremy Affeldt), four of them to Buster Posey. That's right, every time Posey came to the plate, he took first base without making an out. To the batting average counters, the star catcher accomplished nothing, but Posey forced Chicago pitchers to throw at least 16 unproductive pitches that failed to record a single out He also created a base runner each time he batted.
Without an official at bat, Posey scored two of the Giants' three runs, including the game-winner. His batting average didn't rise, he didn't hit a home run, or even a double or triple, he didn't steal a base, he didn't knock in a run. He didn't do anything that would awaken your average sportswriter from his 30-year slumber.
He was just the star of the game.
b
28 May 2011
Are the Giants Bustered?
An unnecessary train wreck in front of home plate earlier this week has left backstop phenom Buster Posey on crutches for the season. That's bad news for the offensively-challenged Giants, but there's some good news as well.
Posey is a legitimate star, his tepid .284/.368/.398 start in 2011 not withstanding. After a gleaming college career and a team MVP-caliber rookie season (.305/.355/.505), projecting him for five wins over a replacement-level player this year would not have been overly optimistic.
Well, now we get to see his replacement, journeyman Eli Whiteside, 31, who's played a notch above replacement level in 321 lifetime plate appearances, roughly what he could expect the rest of the way this year.
Of course, the Giant brass isn't locked into their back-up backstop. There's been talk that GM Brian Sabean might execute a trade with Pittsburgh for 30-year-old Ryan Doumit. Doumit is signed for this year and has a reasonable two-year option for $15.5 million, so he could be a short-term rental or a lease-to-buy, depending on the Giants' needs going forward. Doumit brings a respectable .262/.338/.438 lifetime line and could deliver roughly two wins the rest of the way.
So the Giants lost about four wins under the current arrangement (remainder of Posey's season, which would have been roughly four wins) or sacrifice some high-quality livestock from the farm to gain back two.
Four wins is a big deal. It's the difference between a .500 record and 85 wins, or between 85 and 89. In the flaccid NL West, 89 wins takes the division and 85 puts a team in contention. San Francisco is third best in the senior circuit in defense and third worst in offense, which means the pitching was already carrying the team to its division lead. With Whiteside, the load gets heavier and the Giants have to be considered co-favorites rather than clearly the best team in the NL West.
That's the good news: L.A., Colorado, Arizona and San Diego. The Dodgers, Rockies and D-Backs don't reside in the Padres' low-rent neighborhood, but they all need some gentrification before their neck of the woods is in the division-winning district. That's why losing their one true offensive threat doesn't alone derail the Giants' season.
From Sabean's point of view, there may be other avenues for the offensive uptick he needs to solidify a playoff spot in the Bay, even with Barry Bonds incarcerated. First, the Kung Fu Panda and his sterling .904 OPS is expected back in the lineup in June after wrist surgery. Replacing the odious stylings of Miguel Tejada's dessicated remains (.522 OPS and abysmal fielding) with Sandoval at third base adds back Posey's wins in one fell swoop. Aubrey Huff's return just halfway to last year's performance would jack his hitting above replacement level and add three wins to SF. Even the lost-cause free agent splash from three years ago, Aaron Rowand, could knock a loss off the team's record going forward by just stinking in center field, instead of putrefying.
So Sabean might just lay low and see if his lineup can coax a few more runs for Messers Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Baumgarner to pitch in front of. The Giants can probably win the West without panicking. Without hitting is another matter.
b
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)