R.I.P. Bob Welch. But Can We Have Your Cy Young Back?

It's very sad news that former Dodger and A's Bob Welch died of a sudden heart attack on Tuesday, way too young. Welch's untimely death is another sad reminder how fortunate we all are to have the luxury to obsess about things, like games, that don't really matter.

Welch enjoyed a stellar 17-year career in which he got credit for 211 wins, twirled 28 shutouts, fanned nearly 2000 batters, pitched in four World Series and eight league championship series, and earned 44 wins against replacement.

Bob Welch will best be remembered for the 1978 World Series showdown with Reggie Jackson in which he whiffed Mr. October on nothing but heaters. It's often forgotten that Jackson earned revenge with hits later in the Series -- and so did the Yankees -- sweeping the last four games for the championship.

The other claim to fame for the former first-round pick out of Eastern Michigan was his 1990 Cy Young for a 27-5, 2.95 season. No other pitcher has notched as many wins in the last 42 years.

Today, of course, we're not so easily romanced by big win totals. Examining Welch's record more deeply, it begins to deteriorate.

First, he pitched for a 103-win squad in the offensive sinkhole in Oakland. And that ERA -- 25% below league average back before steroids were prevalent -- is artificially sweetened by 12 unearned runs. His 3.40 RA is somewhat less impressive.

Welch also issued 77 walks, fanned just 127 and surrendered 26 home runs. Today we know that profile is more like a 4.19 ERA performance but for Lady Luck's accompaniment, which dampened opponents' batting average on balls in play to the unwhistleable tune of .255. 

He received six or more runs of support in 13 of his appearances and fewer than three runs just thrice. And he pitched 27 of his 35 starts against sub-.500 teams. In other words, the stars aligned in every conceivable way for Bob Welch that year, transforming a good pitcher into a 27-game winner.

In fact, Bob Welch was the 12th best starter in the American League that season, worth just three wins above replacement. The writers seemed to understand that when they voted Roger Clemens third in the MVP race for his 21-6, 1.93 dominance with 228 strikeouts. Clemens earned 10.6 WAR for his efforts -- more than three times as much as Welch, who finished ninth in the MVP balloting.

In addition to Clemens, Welch's teammate Dave Stewart (22-11, 2.56), the Angels' Chuck Finley (18-9, 2.40) and Bobby Witt (17-10, 3.36), KC's Kevin Appier (12-8, 2.76), Toronto's Dave Stieb (18-6, 2.93) and David Wells (11-6, 3.14), Seattle's Erik Hanson (18-9, 3.24), Boston's Mike Boddicker (17-8, 3.36), the White Sox' Greg Hibbard (14-9, 3.16) and Nolan Ryan of Texas (13-9, 3.44) are all credited today with superior seasons.

In fact, 1990 wasn't nearly Bob Welch's best season. He posted lower ERAs three times in his career and achieved higher WAR four times, but without the gaudy win totals. In those days, all of baseballdom confused (okay, Bill James and a few acolytes didn't) the arbitrary assignment of pitcher wins as vessels of significance. We know better today. I just wish Bob Welch were around to discuss it.

Unfreakenbelievable

Ron from Boston read the NL Cy Young post and wondered offline if Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel doesn't deserve consideration. Kimbrel's historic domination from the closer position deserves some award, but 63 innings, even high-leverage innings, just aren't as important as 230 from the starter's position.

That said, here in a nutshell is the extent to which Kimbrel toyed with National League hitters:

Just for fun, count all the guys who walked against Kimbrel in 63 innings. Add all the guys who singled, doubled and tripled. Add the three batters who homered. Add both batters hit by pitches. Then add all the batters who grounded out, flew out, popped out, lined out and sacrificed. Add the guys who hit into fielders' choices. Add them all up. All of them. 

That number is 115 batters. Kimbrel struck out 116, more than half the hitters he faced. 

The German word for that is: Unfreakenbelievable.

Mercy Rule in Cy Young Votes

We're coming down to the wire on a couple of races. Doubt has left the building in the American League and is making a token appearance in the NL. The Phils and Reds are in and a more balanced Atlanta squad has a much easier row to hoe than one-dimensional San Diego and San Fransisco. Odds are that the loser in the West gets the autumn off.

As for the seasonal hardware, there's still plenty to be settled. Prince Albert, who has lain mostly dormant lately, pounded two homers last night to re-state his NL MVP case, while CC Sabathia last night wrote his AL Cy Young concession speech.

In my view, Cy has already, with nine games left, gone around the circle calling "duck" and landed on his goose in each league.

First, a definition. The Cy Young Award recognizes each league's best pitcher. Period. There is no award for the pitcher who had the best offense behind him or relief pitching to support him. There is no award for the pitcher whose team won most when he was on the mound. There's no award for the best lifetime narrative. If you want to invent an award for those, go ahead. Bestow the Ron Davis Award, named for the reliever who, in his 1979 rookie campaign, posted a 14-2 record in the Bronx that vastly overstated his performance. His 1.5 K/BB ratio and 10 blown saves lurked in the shadows of an amazing W-L mark that mostly demonstrated his uncanny ability to walk off the mound just before the Yankees took their final lead of the game.

I'm looking for a pitcher who takes the ball every five days and goes deep into the game without giving up a lot of runs. I'm taking into effect context, most notably the ballpark he pitches in and the defense behind him. You can garnish with other considerations, like his own fielding ability and the strength of his competition, but these tend to have minimal impact. 

In the NL, the Cy Young Award clearly needs a Halladay. The Phillies' right-hander leads the circuit in innings pitched, strikeouts, fewest walks per game, K/BB ratio, complete games, shutouts and quality starts. His home office is Armageddon for pitchers, yet he's yielded just 2.76 runs (not just earned runs) per game, fourth in the league and just a quarter run per nine behind league leader Josh Johnson.The only knock against Halladay is that he can be taken deep -- 24 homers off him this year -- but that's picking at nits, particularly off a guy who does everything else well. 

In short, Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the NL this year by the length of KRod's rap sheet. Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, Cole Hamels, Brett Meyers, Johan Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez (remember him?) all deserve recognition for fine 2010 campaigns. But they're all racing for the lower box on the podium. 

In the Junior Circuit, the choice is stark. CC Sabathia has compiled a lot of wins pitching for the best team in baseball. Felix Hernandez has a .500 record for a team that scores less often than my high school friends (me included). Hernandez has pitched more innings than Sabathia and relinquished fewer hits, fewer home runs and fewer walks. He has more strikeouts and a better K/BB ratio. His ERA is a run lower.

In fact, the 24-year-old Venezuelan has so out-performed Carsten Charles this year, you might be wondering whether it's the wrong comparison. You might be thinking that Jon Lester, David Price and Jered Weaver are the more apt competitors for the award. Ah, you are wise grasshopper, but you are not a baseball writer. Sabathia's gaudy 20-7 record is like a shiny bauble to the baseball writers and they will compare it favorably to the 12-12 mark that the Ms have dangled around the neck of King Felix.

Before dismissing Sabathia, let's acknowledge that Yankee Stadium is a breeding ground for home runs and run scoring. The effect, however, is smaller than it appears because the Bombers are so loaded offensively. And while Safeco is a run suppressant, the difference is not nearly enough to balance the scales between Felix and CC.

Lester and Price both deserve notice for their accomplishments this season, but neither is the equal of the Seattle righty and both are being considered, again, mostly because of tasty W-L records. Weaver is an under-heralded annual aspirant to Cy's mantle, but Hernandez is a big hill to climb. In fact, King Felix is their superior in basically every category that matters (K/BB excepted).

Clay Bucholz, Cliff Lee and Brian Duensing have all authored masterful 2010 half-seasons. Had any of these pitched a full season (Bucholz because of injuries, Lee because of trade and Duensing because he pitched from the pen until July) they might now be a contender.

Many things can happen in the last nine games of the 2010 season. Carlos Gonzalez could homer twice a day and propel the Rockies into the playoffs on his MVP wings. The Red Sox could sweep the Yankees and plow into the playoffs ahead of NY. The Mets could decide not to fire Jerry Manuel and not to rue their Jason Bay signing. But many things can't happen. The Pirates cannot win out and end their sub-.500 streak. Prince Fielder cannot earn a Gold Glove. And Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez are out of opportunities to relinquish their unassailable claims on the Cy Young Awards.

b

Halftime Hardware

All-Star Break means taking stock, so let's examine the season at mid-life and pick the winners, losers and kncukleheads.

It's been a sub-par half-year for the best player in baseball. Albert Pujols' .416 OBP would be his worst since 2005, his .992 OPS would be the second worst of his career and his .332 "True Average," a catch-all seamhead measure adjusted to look like a batting average that purports to encompass total offensive value including baserunning and considering ballpark and pitching faced, would be the worst since his second season. Consequently, Price Albert is merely an MVP contender. Were he tearing it up as usual, he'd have lapped the field. 

It's hard to argue with Ubaldo Jimenez as the MVP of the Spring and early Summer in the NL. The Rockies are winning 89% of his starts and 48% of their other games. Luck and good defensive support play may be on his dance card every start, but Jimenez is pitching for the same team as his mound mates. His contribution to that gap -- no matter how incomplete -- sounds award-worthy. For what it's worth, sabermetric measures suggest Jimenez has been a little less effective than Roy Halladay & Josh Johnson.

If you're like me, you prefer to weigh your apples and oranges separately. That would leave Ubaldo to the Cy Young competition and pit Pujols against Joey Votto, David Wright, et. al. That particular trio ranks 1-2-3 in value over replacement player, which considers position, but not defense. They are close enough in VORP to justify elevating Wright's excellent defense at third over Pujols' superb glovework on the corner and leaving Votto behind.

The picture is more muddled in the Junior Circuit. Outfielder Josh Hamilton (.346/.390/.625, 47.2 VORP), first baseters Miguel Cabrera (.346/.423/.651, 46.8 VORP) and Justin Morneau (.345/.437/.618, 45.5 VORP), and keystoner Robby Cano (.336/.389/.566, 42.5 VORP) are the main options.  Cabrera is clearly the best hitter, but contributes the least with the leather. Cano is plainly swings the least lethal bat, but is most valuable facing the hitter. No one would have to justify a vote for Morneau or Hamilton either. It's worth accounting for offense-inflating ballparks in NY and Dallas, and recognizing that pitchers sing God Bless Comerica. What seems most likely, anyway, is that Cabrera maintains a stratospheric batting average while Hamilton suffers from mean-regression, making the choice a bit less Solomonic.

On to Cy Young. The above-referenced Jimenez  is an obvious NL choice, though Johnson (1.70 ERA, 4.39K/BB), Halladay (2.19 ERA, 6.74 K/BB) and Adam Wainwright (2.11 ERA, 3.63 K/BB) could proudly hoist the trophy -- if there is one -- guilt free. Halladay offers more endurance and that level of accomplishment in a home stadium that plays to the grand slam crowd, though it must be nice never to have to face his mates Chase, Ryan, Jayson, Shane, Jimmy, et. al. Johnson pitches in front of an infield anchored -- and I do mean anchored -- by Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. So pick your poison, or just wait for the rest of the season to play out.

Again in the AL, the view is more opaque. Cliff Lee (2.54 ERA, 15.17 K/BB, 10 of 13 Quality Starts) would be my history-making choice; he'd have to earn the award with one team in the first half and another post-ASB. Jon Lester (2.78 ERA, 2.82 K/BB, 13 of 18 with Fenway as home base), Felix Hernandez (2.88 ERA, 3.12 K/BB, 16 of 19) and others jostle for position at the front of the line.

Armando Gallaraga and Jim Leyland share the Gentleman Merit Badge for proving that you can have a perfect game even if you give up a hit. In the same vein, Jim Joyce wins the Don Zimmer Real Man Apology Award. Adrian Gonzalez earns the Snow White Trophy for playing with seven dwarfs in San Diego. The LeBron James Ribbon goes to the Cleveland Indians, who have saddened the people of Northeast Ohio by staying. The late George Steinbrenner takes the Warren Buffet plaque to eternity for plunking down $187,000 of his own schwag in an $8.7 mil play in 1974 for the Yankees, now worth $1.5 billion.

And then there's the the Idiot Award shared by all of us. Or at least all of us who thought the Reds were also-rans, the Padres were cellar-dwellers, the Mets were done, the Phillies were shoo-ins and the Mariners were contenders. And we'll earn it all over again unless we acknowledge that we might be right when it's all said and done. So let's just play the second half.

 I can't wait until Thursday.
b