Where Are the All-Time Greats?

A recent spate of Hall of Fame retirements has transformed today's Major Leagues from a repository of the enshrined to a roster of stars whose exact composition is a mystery. Players who are Hall of Fame locks right now number three: Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki and Miguel Cabrera.

Compare that to 10 years ago when Alex Rodriguez could have cruised into Cooperstown with hardly a dissenter. Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Derek Jeter, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Mussina, Kurt Schilling, Greg Madduz, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine were all dancing their waltzes into baseball history.

Purely on the merits, of course, ARod is a no doubter, just as Bonds and Clemens were. The forecast for any of them seeing their bust carved is partly dubious with a chance of impossible. Illicit performance boosting may also work against the borderline case of David Ortiz. Infielders Chase Utley and Adrian Beltre have to rate as probably nots, barring late career second acts (or third acts in Beltre's case.) Carlos Beltran's candidacy depends on how much voters have evolved to appreciate all-around skills, and then which way their coins toss.

Of course, there are some mid-career probablies out there. You have to like Buster Posey's chances, particularly if he can remain behind the plate. On top of his lifetime .300+ batting average, he owns a Rookie of the Year, an MVP and three World Championships. In his sixth season, at age 28, Posey is at it again, posting a .314 TAv.

Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Craig Kimbrel are on promising trajectories as well, though Kimbrel has been lit up in 16 innings this year and Kershaw's powers seemed to have disappeared, Samson-style, with the loss of his hair, in his case facial. Those last three names illuminate how wanting the Majors are today in pitching greatness. The top active hurling careers belong to Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Adam Wainright, Chris Carpenter and Joe Nathan, fine moundsmen all, but hardly bronze material.  Other than King Felix, there will not be a single legitimate pitching candidate for a decade or so after the current backlog clears out.

Then there is Yadier Molina, who needs to keep hitting in the sunset years of his career to be considered this generation's Ivan Rodriguez. Twenty-nine-year-old Evan Longoria has a shot if he returns to the form of his first five full seasons. Joey Votto would have to maintain that consistent excellence for another decade to earn Hall stripes.  And we can always dream on the second and third-year players like Puig, Cespedes, Harvey, Abreu and their ilk. But potential outnumbers fruition by a healthy margin.

Experience tells us that a couple of those named will slide off the list, just as Nomar Garciaparra, Tim Lincecum and Joe Mauer did. And others will climb on, following a path paved by Paul Molitor and Sandy Koufax, to name two. Still, it's likely that the ballot clogging now vexing Hall of Fame voting will not be an issue a decade or two from now.

Meet the New Boss; Same As the Old Boss

Q. What do you get when you put the worst defense behind the best pitcher?
A. Another Cy Young award.

That, in a nutshell, is Justin Verlander's 2012, another data point in his developing Hall of Fame resume. Prior to the season, I wrote that Roy Halladay remained baseball's best moundsman until he was dethroned. Consider the coup complete.

The Tigers without Verlander don't only fail to win their division or make the playoffs, they struggle to win half their games. Verlander was not only the best pitcher in the American League this year, he led the Majors in innings pitched, which means we was the best, the most, and consequently he rated first in baseball in pitcher value over replacement player. He placed second in the league in ERA despite a no-glove infield, second in WHIP and strikeout-walk ratio, and first in strikeouts, complete games, shutouts and quality starts.

Like the Venus de Milo, the numbers only represent part of the story. Justin Verlander is the unquestioned leader of the Tigers. He wants the ball every fifth day and he considers relief pitching a sign of weakness to be avoided. For the first half of the season, he was Detroit's only reliable arm. He's the best pitcher in the AL once again, and once again it isn't close.

All of which serves to overshadow the wonderful seasons posted by Tampa Bay's David Price (20-5, 2.56 in 211 innings, 25 quality starts and 205 strikeouts); the White Sox's Chris Sale (17-8, 3.05 in his first year as a starter, with 192 strikeouts in 192 innings); Seattle's Felix Hernandez (13-9, 3.06 for an offensively-null team and 223 strikeouts in 232 innings); Anaheim's Jered Weaver (20-5, 2.81 and leading the league in WHIP in 189 innings and 21 quality starts) and Yankee CC Sabathia (15-6, 3.38 in 200 innings of work in an offensive-friendly park).

In particular, it obscures the remarkable accomplishments of Jered Weaver in his still young career. The 6'7" Californian is now 102-52, 3.24 lifetime, and having just turned 30, there's plenty left in that right arm. In seven seasons, he's pitched to ERAs below 3.10 four times, with 20+ quality starts each of the past four seasons. Not viewed as an ace until recently, Weaver has earned his third straight top-5 Cy Young finish this year.

In the next post, I'll tell you whether R.A. Dickey or Clayton Kershaw should win the NL Cy Young award.

What Was Mussolini's Lifetime ERA?

What do these questions have in common:

What is the municipal budget of Lake Wobegon?
Who killed Paul McCartney?
What did Pee Wee Herman know and when did he know it?
How much is the square root of your grandmother?
Does Zack Grienke have enough wins to deserve the American League Cy Y0ung award?

The answer: they're irrelevant.

Greinke has been the best pitcher in the AL this year by the length of Curt Schilling's ego. Pitching in front of the retread defense of the Kansas City Royals, Greinke has thrown 210 innings of a 2.52 RA, better by a half run than anyone else. He's second in the circuit with 224 strikeouts and second in K/BB ratio with a mere 44 free passes. His austerity with long balls -- just 11 -- is by far the standard in the AL, as is his WHIP of 1.06. (Home runs are relatively hard to come by in Kauffman Stadium, Greinke's home park, but it's densely populated with doubles and triples. The park effect explains a nominal percentage of his superiority.)

The statheads say that Felix Hernandez's superb performance this year has saved the Mariners 68 runs compared to an average fifth starter. Roy Halladay has saved the Jays 59 runs. CC Sabathia's been worth 56. Justin Verlander, 54. Impressive, all.

Greinke: 80 runs. Attention those of you mistrusted with the vote for this award: 80 is a lot more than 68. It's a lot more than 59 and a lot more than 56 or 54.

It's also a whole lotta more than 26. That's Mariano Rivera's savings. Now, Rivera is theoretically saving runs with the game hanging in the balance, though it's debatable how true that is with a three-run lead in the 9th. Nonetheless, that's such a mammoth difference as to repudiate any vote for him over Greinke.

In short, there's really no credible argument for anyone else. But some sportswriters will demur based on Greinke's low win total. Greinke's 14-8 record pales compared to Sabatha's (17-7), Hernandez's (16-5), Verlander's (16-8) and even Jered Weaver's (15-6, with an ERA over four). Here's the problem with this argument: it's got nothing to do with anything.

That Zack's team can't figure out a way to win after he shuts down the opposition on two runs over seven frames isn't his problem. He's not responsible for the ineptitude of the relievers who follow him or the emptiness of the batting order behind him. Conversely, CC Sabathia deserves no credit for a 6-5 lead provided by Murderers' Row and clamped shut by Rivera.

The Cy Young rewards a simple proposition: the best pitcher in the league that year. The only credible answer in the AL this year is Zack Grienke. Anyone who votes otherwise should have his voting privilege revoked.
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