Mid-Season Questions Answered

Been fielding a lot of informal questions during this extraordinary baseball season. Here are some of them...

Q. Is the ball juiced?
A. Some research, to which I've previously alluded, seems to indicate it's bouncier and the seams are flatter. The differences are minute but they add up over thousands of pitches thrown, which only takes a few games. I doubt it's purposeful but it seems to be a factor in all the long balls.

Q. Are all the home runs and strikeouts bad for baseball?
A. All the talk about home runs and strikeouts being bad for baseball is bad for baseball. The game itself is fine. If no one informed you about all the home runs and strikeouts you would hardly realize it by watching. 

The difference between this remarkable season and the previous record for home runs is a bomb every 10 games per team. Let's say you're a Padres fan,* would you even notice an extra blast every two weeks?

* I picked them to avoid confusion because there aren't actually any Padre fans.

Sure, a large number of strikeouts and walks is dull. Home runs are exciting and make every lead a hair-trigger situation. So on balance, let's just enjoy the games.

Q. Can Aaron Judge keep this up? Will he win the MVP?
A. It's always unlikely that the hottest player in the game will remain that hot all season, and that's particularly true of anyone who has never done it before. And it's double true with a cherry on top when his BABIP is .400. At the same time, only a truly good hitter can produce an 1.150 OPS over 80 games. So I expect Judge to regress some, but he's obviously a very good hitter. By the way, he's also athletic despite his size and has flashed solid defensive and base running skills.

Q. Are the Twins really this good?
A. "This" is the illusion of weak competition. The Twins are barely a .500 team, but because the rest of the division's GPS is recalculating, they've been occupying first place. So sure, they can continue to play .500 ball and finish 10 games out of first.

Q. Are the Phillies really this bad?
A. We have this false notion that a franchise that flips its veterans for minor league talent will automatically contend five years later. It turns out the young prospects acquired by the Phillies just aren't that good, whether because of talent or development. The Braves are experiencing the same problem, though they have executed some wily trades and signings of veterans and earned an upgrade to mediocrity.

Q. Which team currently under .500 has the best chance of earning a playoff spot?
A.  With the Rockies possibly fading, I'd say ... the Cardinals? If the Mets get healthy-ish it could be them.

Q. Is all this launch angle and exit velocity stuff just a fad? Don't you still have to hit the ball to be good?
A. Oh yeah, just like the running craze. In the 70s, people would get up early in the morning, put on sweats and special running shoes, eat some high protein food like an egg or a shake, and go outside to run for miles. Just run, and end up right back where they started. I couldn't wait for that fad to end.

Q. Some folks are saying the Orioles are just awful but it's being camouflaged by their hot start. Do you think they're awful and should blow it up?
A. The people who say the Orioles are awful said the Orioles were awful in 2016. And 2015. And 2014, 2013 and 2012. During that time they won the division once, the Wild Card twice and never finished under .500. I think the Orioles are less awful than the projection tools of those who denigrate the Orioles.

That said, man their pitching sucks.

Q. Is Craig Kimbrel going to the Hall of Fame?
A. I'm sure he can afford a flight to Albany and a car rental to Cooperstown.

As for enshrinement, it's so tricky with relievers. At this moment, there is not a single pitcher in the Hall who was primarily a closer. Rivera will be the first. 

That said, Kimbrel's leading the league in saves for the fifth time in nine years and sports a 1.80 career ERA and 14.6 strikeouts per 9 innings. Let's see him do that for another eight years and then I'll guarantee him entrance without a ticket.

Q. Which active players would make the Hall if they retired today?
A. Pujols, Ichiro, Cabrera, Kershaw (it's his 10th season), Beltre, Beltran. Maybe Cano.

Q. Who will be the next guy after that group into Cooperstown?
A. Buster Posey? Heck, it might be Trout. He's already 13th in WAR among active players.

Also, I didn't include Utley, but he's right on the borderline. Easy now to forget how terrific he was '05-'09.

Q. Who was on your All-Star ballot?
A. I doubt you want to read the whole thing. I did put Trout on the team so he can be honored and replaced by Mookie Betts. I chose Paul Goldschmidt over Ryan Zimmerman, Joey Votto and the injured Freddie Freeman for NL first baseman, and Justin Smoak over Logan Morrison for AL first baseman, mostly because Smoak is from my neck of the woods. NL third base was the toughest pick with Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Justin Turner, Jake Lamb and Travis Shaw. I picked Arenado.

Q. What if the Cubs are like this all season?
A. Imagine the NL Central champ with 84 wins. But I really do believe they have too much talent (and money) to be this middling for an entire season. The rotation is their Achilles heal right now and they can always go into the market for a pitcher. Or, they can just reload next year.

Q. Are the Nats toast with that bullpen?
A. They'd cruise into the playoffs with 50 Cent as their closer, so the question is about the post-season. The benefit of having one truly glaring need is that it's easy to fill that hole and instantly improve. So Washington will snag a closer and set-up man before the trade deadline passes.

Q. How good does Bryce Harper have to be in his career to not be considered a bust?
A. He's got to be near Hall worthy. Keep in mind, though, he's younger than Aaron Judge and already owns 26 WAR. He's almost a lock for 60 or 70 career WAR, which puts him in the Hall conversation.

Q. I'm a Met fan. Woe is me. What should we do?
A. Wail unceasingly. Rend garments. 

At least you have the Jets and Kni...nevermind.

Q. If you were a member of a championship team, would you go to the White House to meet the President?
A. Of course. This isn't about the buffoon in office; it's about our team's accomplishment being honored at the White House. 

But I'd leave my wife home.

Q. Why are there no Lavar Balls in baseball?
A. For the same reason there were no Lavar Balls in any sport until this year. Guy is a genius who has made himself rich and famous. And anyone who pays more than 50 bucks for his sneakers is a moron.

Q. From the influx of young infielders who burst on the scene together, who do you think we'll be remembering in 20 years and who will turn out to be pretenders?
A. I don't think any of them are pretenders. Carlos Correa, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Xander Boegarts, Andrelton Simmons, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have all proven they're the real deals. The days of shortstops and second basemen being the weakest hitters are over for a while.

Q. Should the Yankees acquire a pitcher at the trade deadline?
A. They have to be very careful not to mortgage the future. They're a juggernaut waiting to happen and they can't allow premature success to divert them from their plan. Or, they could, and that would be fine with me.

Q. The Giants' record in the second half will be...
A. .500 or better. They're not this bad and Bumgarner returns. But prognosticating baseball is for fools who are soon parted from their money.

Q. What player's absence would hurt his team most?
A. Chris Sale or Max Scherzer. Neither team has the rotation to incur the loss of their ace.

Q. Same question with position players only.
A. It'd be interesting to see how many other Yankees would fall off if they lost Judge.

Arenado off the Rockies would hurt because his defense polishes up the pitching and Colorado has to hang onto that Wild Card for 81 games.

Q. Joey Gallo has 20 homers and 13 singles. Have you ever seen anything like that?
A. I wrote about Adam Dunn doing that a few years back, but it wasn't such a wide margin. Gallo is the new breed of Three True Outcomes hitter -- young and athletic.  Guy is sub-Mendoza but playing regularly because of the jacks and his defense and base running.

Q. You've made a habit of denigrating Derek Jeter's diving catch into the stands. So what was the best catch you've ever seen?
A. It's not denigrating Jeter's catch to point out the fact that he didn't come anywhere near diving into the stands to make it. He caught the ball in fair territory 15 feet from the stands, took two long strides and then flung himself over the railing. We see catches this good or better twice a week on Web Gems, but because they weren't made by Derek Jeter, they're forgotten five minutes later.

Here's a screen grab of your diving catch in the stands.

The best catch I've ever seen was made by Garry Matthews Jr. and has never received its due.

Q. Why do you suck?
A. Because I drink through a straw.

...and on that note, Happy Independence Day and let's have a great second half of the season.

Where's This Year's Ellie Rodriguez?

The voters are taking all the fun out of the All-Star vote.

Seriously, the Royals obsession not withstanding, the fans have sapped the game of debate fodder. They've generally chosen the most worthy player, and when they haven't, the players and managers have bailed them out.

If you love to ridicule the gimpy veteran, the scuffling fan-favorite, the injured hometown hero, the lagging lone representative, you're out of luck this year. There's no .230 hitter making the Midsummer Classic because of his name. There's no first-half wonder whose star will have faded by Labor Day. Sadly, the best players will gather in Great American Ballpark.

There's no Ellie Rodriguez, a journeyman catcher who made the '69 All-Star squad despite a .236 average and two home runs that season. He produced less than a win against replacement.

I could quibble about this year's selections: Alcides Escobar is not the AL's best shortstop this year or for his career. Jose Iglesias is a superior fielder and is trumping him with the bat this season. And he's on the team.

Jason Kipnis and his 150 OPS+ is the best keystoner in the AL this year by the length of Jose Altuve.  But Altuve is an All-Star dynamo and the fact that he starts and Kipnis finishes is small potatoes. 

The over-abundance of relievers is a product of the game's new faux-significance. Managers choose guys who can light it up for an inning because that's what pitchers are called upon to do in the All Star game.

Cole Hamels (113 innings of excellence) should represent Philly rather than Jonathan Papelbon (33 innings of excellence). Welcome to All-Star hair splitting.

The biggest talk has surrounded Alex Rodriguez, but it's been pretty half-hearted. That's the best controversy we can muster. ARod has been a pleasant surprise but he's this year's third best DH who contributed nothing in the second half of last season. There's really no room for him in a game that won't feature a designated hitter.

So we'll have to content ourselves with all the nascent talent, all the first time All Stars, the future of the game. It's exciting and bodes well for baseball. Of course the youngest one of them all will make his third All Star appearance. That's still Bryce Harper.
 

The Hardest All-Star Vote

Which All-Star voting method do you employ?

The Cesar Izturis Method -- Pick a player without bonafides based on 12 good weeks, regardless of the rest of his career arc. Izturis was an '05 honoree after hitting .345 through June 1. He batted .173 the rest of the way without power or speed and ended the season at little more than replacement level.

The Jason Giambi Method -- Just choose the best players regardless of their accomplishments so far that year. Giambi batted .237 with 12 homers in the first half of '03, then slammed 29 in the second half and finished the season with a .939 OPS, 48% above league average.

The Derek Jeter Method -- Exercise your franchise for the retiring hero whose production took a wrong turn at Aging Street and isn't going to find its way back, just because you want to see him start one more time. 

The Cespedes-Puig Method -- Go for the glitz, the glam! The All-Star Game is just entertainment!

The Braindrizzling Method -- Mix two cups of Giambi with one cup of Izturis and season with a soupcon of Puig. There is no one on my ballot struggling in the first half. There is no one on my ballot who hasn't done it before. Rookies have to wait their turn unless their turn has turned.

My AL ballot:
1B - Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
2B - Robinson Cano, Seattle
SS - Alexi Ramirez, White Sox
3B - Adrian Beltre, Texas
C - Sal Perez, KC
OF - Mike Trout, Anaheim
OF - Jose Bautista, Toronto
OF - Michael Brantley, Cleveland
DH - Victor Martinez, Detroit

Cabrera is the first baseman unless he steps on his glove and breaks his hand four games into the season and doesn't play again. Everyone else has done it before, to varying degrees. You could have gone Josh Donaldson of Oakland at third and someone else, say all-around Alex Gordon of KC, as the third outfielder. 

Others -- Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Melky Cabrera, to name a few -- deserve consideration, but not as starters. And of course Derek Jeter and Paul Konerko are retiring stars who should be selected in some other capacity because they clearly aren't contenders at their positions today.

My NL ballot:
1B - Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona
2B - Chase Utley, Philadelphia
SS - Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado
3B - Todd Frazier, Cincinnati
OF - Giancarlo Stanton, Miami 
OF - Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh
OF - Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles

Any ballot not including Tulo, Giancarlo and Cutch should be incinerated. Puig and Milwaukee's Gomez are both good third outfield choices; I don't trust Dee Gordon, but if he's for real, he's a fine choice at short with his defense and his 40 steals. And Anthony Rendon of Washington is a stud at...um...third? second? first? 

Third was a tough choice: Frazier is having the best half year and has hit well before. If David Wright's pedigree is more your cup of tea, have a swig of that.

But wait, I haven't selected an NL catcher. Well you try choosing just one from this group:

Evan Gattis, Atlanta -- .290 with 16 bombs and passable defense in his first full-time duty.
Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee -- .334 with 37 extra-base hits
Devin Mesoraco, Cincinnati -- .310 and 14 jacks in only 48 games
Yadier Molina, St. Louis -- .280 and his Yadierness behind the dish
Buster Posey, San Fran -- .293 with power and an MVP trophy sticking out of his pocket 

What an embarrassment of riches at backstop. I put Lucroy on my team; he's a budding star and will vindicate the choice. But the bigger question is which two don't make the squad at all? 

Catchers authored a dismal .687 OPS last year, worst by position except for shortstops and 13% below league mean, including pitchers. These five are averaging .872, 24% clear of league average. That's the difference between five guys who bat .230 with four home runs and this quintet, averaging .300 with 11 jacks. 

Something to savor at the halfway mark.

Half Notes

The fans have generally represented themselves well in All-Star voting. This was a bit of an off-year. 

Late Internet flurries have tended to push the best candidates to the fore, but this year online traffic fueled by team marketing efforts steered the ballot in the other direction. For example, the Giants raffled tickets to anyone who voted 20 times, criminally pushing Pablo Sandoval (.833 OPS) over David Wright (1.007 OPS) at the NL hot corner.

Many of the choices, though not mine, are defensible. I picked the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz at NL backstop, but Buster Posey's .850 OPS sits on a foundation of stardom, while Ruiz's .999 OPS is by far the zenith of his career. Asdrubal Cabrera (.862 OPS) has been the AL's best shortstop for two years and got my nod, but the fans want to see first ballot Hall of Famer Derek Jeter (.752 OPS) and his .300 batting average at age 38.

On the other hand, Mike Napoli's Texas-infused surge at AL catcher, where he's played just two-thirds of the time, might owe something to his magnificent 2011 (1.045 OPS), as opposed to his scuffling this year (.773 OPS). Joe Mauer (.863 as a full-time catcher) clearly deserved it more.

The fans really face-planted at NL shortstop. Casting their lot with Rafael Furcal (.713), they picked a player with barely average hitting and fielding this year, following a season of barely average hitting and fielding. Arizona's Jed Lowrie (.809) and Astro phenom Jose Altuve (.791) would both have been far superior choices.

This is an observation, not a complaint. On the whole, the fans do their homework and leave little more than quibbles. Players, managers, sportswriters, gypsy women with tarot cards -- none of them have  better track records.

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Sliding Billy Hamilton swiped 914 bases in his Hall of Fame career, leading the league in on base percentage five times over 14 years.

Well, he's at it again. Billy has already appropriated 100 bases at high-A Bakersfield after 103 thefts in the Midwest League last season.

Okay, it's a different Billy Hamilton, this one a 21-year-old Reds farmhand and the former a 19th-century Phillie and Beaneater. Elder Billy stole 100 bases one season; young Billy has 64 games left to top that mark.

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Tom Wilhelmsen has pitched 45 innings for the Seattle Mariners this season and surrendered 12 runs on 35 hits, 13 walks and 55 strikeouts. Not one of those runs scored in the month of June.

His bullpen mate, Charlie Furbush, has been touched for just seven runs on 16 hits, eight walks and 45 strikeouts in 34 innings. Not one of those runs scored during the month of June.

The two behemoths (6'6" and 6'5" respectively) threw 33 scoreless frames over the 30-day period. The M's went 11-16 for the month. 

That might have something to do with a starting lineup paced by Ichiro's .268 batting average. (His OBP is .296). Or Justin Smoak's 11 home runs. (He's hitting .204). There are more hits in one Seahawks practice than on this whole sorry squad.

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Baseball Prospectus says the Washington Nationals started the season with a 17% chance of making the playoffs. That now stands at 72%. The same projection put the Phils' odds (after losing Howard and Utley) at about even to start the season. They are now negligible.

This tells us one of two things:

1. There's a reason they play the games.

2. Baseball Prospectus's projection system isn't worth the electrons it's printed on.

Or perhaps, both.

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Move Along...There's No Story Here

If you're a reporter, or a blogger, you love a good storyline. The Casey Anthony trial is a great story, even though it's a tragedy wrapped in an abomination. The voting for the 2011 MLB All-Star game doesn't leave much to discuss. For that we can thank the fans.

Ever since MLB decided to allow Chicago-style voting on the Internet, whereby horsehide aficionados like myself could vote 25 times online with each email address we could co-opt (I stop at three), the elections have gotten ... better. That's right, fraud becomes All-Star voting.

The truth is, ever since fans could vote, fraud has been an essential part of the package. Fans received their ballots by the bushel basket at the ballpark and were urged to punch out the chad for the hometown heroes, even if the Mudville nine were channeling Mario Mendoza.

The 1957 edition of the fan vote channeled a Libyan presidential election. The Cincinnati Enquirer printed ballots allowing Queen City fans to elect seven Reds on the starting team, alongside Stan Musial. Left out were bench-warmers named Mays, Banks, Matthews, Campanella, Snider, Clemente, Ashburn and ultimate league MVP, Hank Aaron. (The commish voided two of the selections in favor of Aaron and Mays and then retired the fan vote for the next 12 years.)

In 2011, continuing a recent trend, the cream has generally risen to the top. This year, the performance fairy has shined on the entire NL squad. In the AL, only Josh Hamilton and Derek Jeter are debatable  choices. Even then, Hamilton is probably the best player at his position, but he's been hurt most of the season. Jeter's Hall of Fame career is waning, but the fans want to see him. Asdrubal Cabrera, 25, will have his chances in future years.

The flipside mistake is an All-Star vote based on just 13 weeks or excellence, and fans have been careful not to fall into that trap. Jose Bautista and his 54 homerun season didn't start the Mid-Summer Classic last year because there was no reason to believe he was one of the three best outfielders in the league. This year, flashing similar stats, he's the leading vote-getter. The baseball public could teach the general electorate a thing or two.

The Internet ballot stuffing has actually benefited the game by allowing more thoughtful, non-partisan observers to overwhelm the hometown hooey. The results are teams that largely reflect the best of the baseball each year. Where that notion flags is more likely the result of the antiquated rule requiring each team to be represented, the reputational bias of players and blatant demonstrations of unwarranted loyalty by the manager.

So yipee for the fans, and look, I got a blog out of it anyway.
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