"Poor, poor, pitiful me." -Warren Zevon
The Atlanta Braves knew what they were doing when they let Jason Heyward's expiring contract go to St. Louis for young righty Shelby Miller this past off-season. While most saw currency as the driver of the deal, GM John Hart knew that Miller was worth every bit of Heyward and that he'd be Atlanta's at a discount for at least four more seasons.
Now Miller is 5-10 and hasn't recorded a victory in 16 starts dating to May 17, back when Jeb Bush was the Republican presidential nominee. He's absorbed eight losses and eight no-decisions during that time and the Braves have lost 13 of the 16 games.
So is Miller putting the team in the hole early or is he fading as games go on? Well, neither.
Even during the losing streak, Miller has pitched to a 3.03 ERA and averaged six-and-a-third innings, which accounts for a lot departures for pinch hitting. His worst stinker was a five-inning, five run performance in Colorado in which he walked one and fanned seven. Five times he's lasted seven frames and limited the opposition to a run.
As you might imagine, the Braves' lineup has proved feckless in those 16 games. They've contributed one run or none in half of Miller's starts, and delivered more than three runs just twice -- after Miller left the mound.
For the season, Shelby Miller sports a 2.43 ERA with two shutouts and four wins against replacement. His accomplishments on the hump just haven't been reflected in game scores.
Showing posts with label John Hart. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Hart. Show all posts
22 August 2015
06 April 2015
Forget About Hamiltons, the Kimbrel Trade Was About Millions
Well, apparently John Hart has been Braindrizzling himself. Reliable sources (my gut) report that Hart read this Braindrizzling post and was inspired to consider flipping Craig Kimbrel for a package of young players, salary relief and Twizzlers.
It's actually much more than a simple Superman for prospects swap that Hart pulled off with his San Diego brethren -- and much less. Kimbrel and the sunk cost formerly known as B.J. Upton -- how desperate do you have to be to change your name to Melvin? -- bring back Cameron Maybin, offsetting sunk cost Carlos Quentin, a pair of prospects and an early second-round draft pick.
Pitching prospect Matt Wisler is highly regarded, and Maybin stole 40 bases and owned centerfield for 150 games four years ago, but that's a petty haul for the greatest closer the game has ever known, half-a-decade edition.
Indeed, the Braves have basically flipped Kimbrel for savings. Upton and Kimbrel will now cost the San Diego franchise $80 million through 2017, while Quentin and Maybin amount to just $23 million of albatross. (The Braves immediately ate Quentin's contract and cut him loose.) If that $57 million difference means signing coveted draft picks above slot, coaxing an international star their way and bringing in a useful free agent in 2017, then the deal might work out.
Or, if Atlanta has reason to believe that Maybin's speed and defense can trump his fragility and whiffle bat, perhaps that's a greater return than it appears on first blush. But first blush is underwhelmed. James Shields netted for the Rays Wil Myers, a top farmhand who crushed AL pitching as a rookie. For Kimbrel, the Braves' prospect return is more volume than quality.
For the Padres, who appear to have sacrificed the rest of eternity for a 2015 pennant, this deal makes sense in that it's more of that strategy. A.J. Preller has now stripped the farm, and Kimbrel does nothing for their putrid infield or their porous outfield defense, but none of that will matter if Kimbrel leads the Padres to a crown. And with baseball's most electrifying closer mowing down batters in baseball's offensive cemetery, well, it could resurrect the undead Padres.
It's actually much more than a simple Superman for prospects swap that Hart pulled off with his San Diego brethren -- and much less. Kimbrel and the sunk cost formerly known as B.J. Upton -- how desperate do you have to be to change your name to Melvin? -- bring back Cameron Maybin, offsetting sunk cost Carlos Quentin, a pair of prospects and an early second-round draft pick.
Pitching prospect Matt Wisler is highly regarded, and Maybin stole 40 bases and owned centerfield for 150 games four years ago, but that's a petty haul for the greatest closer the game has ever known, half-a-decade edition.
Indeed, the Braves have basically flipped Kimbrel for savings. Upton and Kimbrel will now cost the San Diego franchise $80 million through 2017, while Quentin and Maybin amount to just $23 million of albatross. (The Braves immediately ate Quentin's contract and cut him loose.) If that $57 million difference means signing coveted draft picks above slot, coaxing an international star their way and bringing in a useful free agent in 2017, then the deal might work out.
Or, if Atlanta has reason to believe that Maybin's speed and defense can trump his fragility and whiffle bat, perhaps that's a greater return than it appears on first blush. But first blush is underwhelmed. James Shields netted for the Rays Wil Myers, a top farmhand who crushed AL pitching as a rookie. For Kimbrel, the Braves' prospect return is more volume than quality.
For the Padres, who appear to have sacrificed the rest of eternity for a 2015 pennant, this deal makes sense in that it's more of that strategy. A.J. Preller has now stripped the farm, and Kimbrel does nothing for their putrid infield or their porous outfield defense, but none of that will matter if Kimbrel leads the Padres to a crown. And with baseball's most electrifying closer mowing down batters in baseball's offensive cemetery, well, it could resurrect the undead Padres.
10 December 2014
Are the Braves Punting 2015?
They'll pay Dan Uggla $13.2 milion to stay away from their infield this season.
They'll fatten B.J. Upton's bank account by $46.5 million for three years of keeping dust from accumulating on the dugout bench. Either that or he'll occupy a lineup spot and cost them a win against replacement.
Rather than losing Jason Heyward to the free market after this season, they traded him to St. Louis with reliever Jordan Walden for promising starter Shelby Miller.
They plugged Nick Markakis into Heyward's slot for four years at $44 million at a cost of two-to-three wins against replacement a year.
They non-tendered TJ rehabbers Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen. The pair may or may not re-sign with the team.
Either GM John Hart -- who assembled the mid-90s Indians -- is an evil genius or it's something of a rebuild in Atlanta these days. This comes a year after they inked their best young ballers -- Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons and Julio Teheran -- to long term deals.
It appears the Braves have their eyes not on 2015 but on 2017, when their new park opens in the suburbs. Everyone not nailed down, or reeking of future value, is on the trading block. We're looking at you, Evan Gattis. You're a fine asset as a slugging catcher, but your late start means you'll enter your 30s in 2017 with your prospects in steep decline.*
Hart is looking at Justin Upton, too. The 27-year-old standout hit 32% above average last season, but he's only under contract one more year. Hart will undoubtedly be shopping both players at the Winter Meetings for pre-arb talent, minor leaguers and international signing slots.
If successful, that means the surging Mets and Marlins could overtake the Braves next season as they battle the Phillies to avoid the NL East cellar. It could get ugly in Atlanta before it gets exciting in Marietta.
* Special bonus fact: Evan Gattis has walked exactly as many times in each of his two MLB seasons as he's homered. He needs to walk 45 times in 2015.
They'll fatten B.J. Upton's bank account by $46.5 million for three years of keeping dust from accumulating on the dugout bench. Either that or he'll occupy a lineup spot and cost them a win against replacement.
Rather than losing Jason Heyward to the free market after this season, they traded him to St. Louis with reliever Jordan Walden for promising starter Shelby Miller.
They plugged Nick Markakis into Heyward's slot for four years at $44 million at a cost of two-to-three wins against replacement a year.
They non-tendered TJ rehabbers Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen. The pair may or may not re-sign with the team.
Either GM John Hart -- who assembled the mid-90s Indians -- is an evil genius or it's something of a rebuild in Atlanta these days. This comes a year after they inked their best young ballers -- Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons and Julio Teheran -- to long term deals.
It appears the Braves have their eyes not on 2015 but on 2017, when their new park opens in the suburbs. Everyone not nailed down, or reeking of future value, is on the trading block. We're looking at you, Evan Gattis. You're a fine asset as a slugging catcher, but your late start means you'll enter your 30s in 2017 with your prospects in steep decline.*
Hart is looking at Justin Upton, too. The 27-year-old standout hit 32% above average last season, but he's only under contract one more year. Hart will undoubtedly be shopping both players at the Winter Meetings for pre-arb talent, minor leaguers and international signing slots.
If successful, that means the surging Mets and Marlins could overtake the Braves next season as they battle the Phillies to avoid the NL East cellar. It could get ugly in Atlanta before it gets exciting in Marietta.
* Special bonus fact: Evan Gattis has walked exactly as many times in each of his two MLB seasons as he's homered. He needs to walk 45 times in 2015.
25 February 2014
A Hart Attack in Atlanta Leaves A Franchise in Great Shape
If Carlos Baerga and Albert Belle join the Braves lineup, we'll know for sure what's afoot in Atlanta. Until then, we see the old Cleveland Indians philosophy of locking up future stars beyond their arbitration years at play in the Home of the Braves (soon to be Marietta).
The original plan, engineered by General Manager John Hart, paid dividends for the Indians, who won six AL Central titles in seven years, made two World Series and should have won one. Hart recognized that his bevy of promising talent -- Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Charles Nagy, Belle and Baerga -- could be locked up through their most productive years with relatively low-cost contracts if he acted early.
With rampant salary inflation unabated and a new park opening in three years, Hart inked the bulk of Cleveland's future core to team-friendly extensions that bought out arbitration years and a season or two of free agency. His judgment was vindicated when all but Nagy produced beyond their contract terms and then again when Baerga turned into a pumpkin immediately upon the expiration of his.
In the meantime, The Jake (now Progressive Field) filled up for 455 consecutive games. The sellouts spilled into Canton, where fans gobbled up tickets for the Double-A Indians and a chance to see future Cleveland players.
With a similar set of circumstances, and Hart serving as a front office advisor, GM Frank Wren has committed $309 million to five prized on-field assets that will keep them in uniform for the rest of the 20-teens. The Braves now know they can build around Jason Heyward, Julio Teheran, Freddy Freeman, Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel for at least the next five years. Of the money committed, more than two-thirds will be spent after the Nocahomas unveil their new suburban home.
They also know that if any of the quintet age poorly, the team can let someone else pay gigantic sums for their decline years. In concept it's a beautiful thing. Braves fans know right now that three years from now a deft first baseman, an athletic outfielder with pop, a top-of-the-rotation starter, a slick-fielding shortstop and the best closer anyone has ever seen will anchor their roster. It's no coincidence that Atlanta sent aging free agents Brian McCann and Tim Hudson packing. Those savings have been invested back into the future.
What seems different about this round of Hart attacks is the cost. Though Simmons's signing is almost completely free of downside, some of the others -- Freeman's in particular -- feel mighty rich considering all the risk being taken by the team. The old formula for these deals -- team takes long-term risk ensuring player wealth at a discounted rate -- appears to lack some of the discount. Only if the players fulfill their potential and salary inflation continues to run unchecked will these deals appear to be no-brainers in restrospect.
Nonetheless, if you offered the entire package as a take-it-or-leave-it deal to a smart GM he would take it in a heartbeat. The new stadium will fill team coffers if the win column is well-stocked and this nucleus goes a long way towards ensuring that. Native Americans may have given away Manhattan for $24 in beads but they're redeeming themselves in the baseball front office.
The original plan, engineered by General Manager John Hart, paid dividends for the Indians, who won six AL Central titles in seven years, made two World Series and should have won one. Hart recognized that his bevy of promising talent -- Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Charles Nagy, Belle and Baerga -- could be locked up through their most productive years with relatively low-cost contracts if he acted early.
With rampant salary inflation unabated and a new park opening in three years, Hart inked the bulk of Cleveland's future core to team-friendly extensions that bought out arbitration years and a season or two of free agency. His judgment was vindicated when all but Nagy produced beyond their contract terms and then again when Baerga turned into a pumpkin immediately upon the expiration of his.
In the meantime, The Jake (now Progressive Field) filled up for 455 consecutive games. The sellouts spilled into Canton, where fans gobbled up tickets for the Double-A Indians and a chance to see future Cleveland players.
With a similar set of circumstances, and Hart serving as a front office advisor, GM Frank Wren has committed $309 million to five prized on-field assets that will keep them in uniform for the rest of the 20-teens. The Braves now know they can build around Jason Heyward, Julio Teheran, Freddy Freeman, Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel for at least the next five years. Of the money committed, more than two-thirds will be spent after the Nocahomas unveil their new suburban home.
They also know that if any of the quintet age poorly, the team can let someone else pay gigantic sums for their decline years. In concept it's a beautiful thing. Braves fans know right now that three years from now a deft first baseman, an athletic outfielder with pop, a top-of-the-rotation starter, a slick-fielding shortstop and the best closer anyone has ever seen will anchor their roster. It's no coincidence that Atlanta sent aging free agents Brian McCann and Tim Hudson packing. Those savings have been invested back into the future.
What seems different about this round of Hart attacks is the cost. Though Simmons's signing is almost completely free of downside, some of the others -- Freeman's in particular -- feel mighty rich considering all the risk being taken by the team. The old formula for these deals -- team takes long-term risk ensuring player wealth at a discounted rate -- appears to lack some of the discount. Only if the players fulfill their potential and salary inflation continues to run unchecked will these deals appear to be no-brainers in restrospect.
Nonetheless, if you offered the entire package as a take-it-or-leave-it deal to a smart GM he would take it in a heartbeat. The new stadium will fill team coffers if the win column is well-stocked and this nucleus goes a long way towards ensuring that. Native Americans may have given away Manhattan for $24 in beads but they're redeeming themselves in the baseball front office.
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