The False Testimony of Derek Jeter

Oh how we have missed Derek Jeter. We've managed to survive two years and 35 games without him, (Thank God for the Cubs!) during which time the official sculptor of the New York Yankees has been busy carving his likeness onto a plaque for unveiling this weekend.

So the tributes will flow and the accolades will fill the air. To the sold-out crowd's delight, Jeter's spirit magic will enter The Stadium as they retire his number 2 and his aura will ascend to heaven. Already, sports shows that treat baseball like gum on their sneaker bottom have dedicated segments to his monumental character and leadership. 

He Should Be President
Yes, the same America that smiled upon the character and leadership of Donald Trump is transfixed by those attributes in Derek Jeter. But I'm sure that will not give the crowd, or the mesmerized sports media, a moment's pause. 

Just to be clear, I don't doubt that Jeter is a great guy with strong character and outstanding leadership skills. It's just that he has become the vessel into which we have poured all our appreciation for leadership in sports. There were literally dozens of athletes who shared these characteristics during Jeter's career -- maybe more. He's the only one we celebrated at all, much less continuously at full voice for 20 years.

The Perstistence of an Overblown Narrative
I want to relate a story that the fine baseball writer Buster Olney is telling this week as testimony to Jeter's great character.  Olney remembers a game in 1998 in which a popup fell between fielders, prompting pitcher David Wells to react with frustration. Olney received word that young Jeter had chewed out Wells in the clubhouse, demanding that he show his teammates respect. Olney asked Jeter about it and Jeter denied it vociferously. Within a minute Olney discovered that in fact it was quite the tongue-lashing. 

Olney tells this story as an encomium to Jeter's great character -- that he would take the initiative to set the tone for his team, but then reject efforts to bestow credit upon him. Fine, spin it that way if you like. What I heard was that Jeter lied to Olney's face. Imagine the umbrage Olney would have taken had any other ballplayer lied so blatantly to him.

In fact, what happened there is just confirmation bias piling up more evidence for the narrative that has engulfed the sporting public. Imagine all the alternative scenarios and ask yourself if Olney would have drawn any different conclusion:

1. Jeter deflects question saying what happens in the clubhouse stays among the players.
Conclusion: Jeter is a great team leader who refuses to take credit.

2. Jeter refuses to talk about it.
Conclusion: Jeter is a great team leader who refuses to take credit.

3. Jeter admits there was a discussion but plays it down.
 Conclusion: Jeter is a great team leader who is reluctant to take credit.

4. Jeter defends his actions and says in no uncertain terms that the team won't tolerate disrespect.
Conclusion: Jeter is a great team leader who is setting the tone for a championship team.
 
You see, there is no scenario in which Olney doesn't retell this story as a tribute to Jeter. In fact, Jeter chose the least magnanimous option -- lying through his teeth. But when the narrative of Jeter as the Mother Teresa of horsehide has as much momentum as it has had for years, it's very difficult to avoid getting caught up in it.

But I've managed.

Eleventh Anniversary of an Iconic Play That Never Happened

Major League Baseball's marketing department is enjoying 24-hour erections today; the 11th anniversary of Derek Jeter's storybook dive into the stands to catch a foul ball. Why not roll out the video and let every boy and girl see how Captain America saved the day against the arch enemy Red Sox on July 1, 2004.

And so here's the story and video.

Oh wait, here's why not: he didn't actually dive into the stands for the ball. And now you've shown the video proof of him not diving into the stands for a ball that he actually caught in fair territory. A nice catch to be sure, but not really all that noteworthy, except that if we can gloss over the facts and believe hard enough it burnishes Jeter's fairy tale reputation as the Golden Boy. So showing the video unravels the legend, which has lived on in our hearts and seeped into our minds for over a decade. That's why not. Oops.

Except, MLB has nothing to fear, because America will continue to watch the video with its heart and not its eyes, and will continue to remember this catch as something it's not, evidence be damned. 

Here's something many people fail to credit to the great Yankee captain: that very year, under his legendary leadership, the Bronx Bombers authored the most spectacular collapse in baseball playoff history, gakking up a 3-0 AL Championship Series lead to the Sox. Now there's an accomplishment that Jeter admirers can truly claim as uniquely their hero's. 

While you were revisiting the catch, did you notice the little side paean to Jeter just below, the clip of him juking Jason Kipnis into a double play. What a great, heads-up play by the Yankee immortal. 

I wonder what we'd be calling that move if Alex Rodriguez had done it. "Cheap?" "Petty?" "Low class?" "Minor league?" "Phony?" Weren't those the words used when ARod called for a popup while running the bases? What's the difference between faking out a runner and faking out a fielder?

Finally, let's circle back to the enraptured MLB marketing department, which might, next time they need some hagiography written on the site, consider hiring a writer with an expertise in, you know, vocabulary. 

The story written by Chris Landers contends Jeter "leaped" into the stands. There was no leaping of any kind, stands-ward or otherwise, except perhaps by victorious Yankees after John Flaherty's winning hit. Leaping involves a vector opposite that of diving, which is what Jeter did, into the stands, 15 feet after catching the ball, in fair territory, in a game in July.

The Deification of Derek Jeter Commences

Befitting his entire career, the idolatry around Derek Jeter entered its crescendo phase yesterday with the announcement that 2014 would be his final season. Expect the crescendo to remain in effect, nationwide, through October.

Derek Jeter is one of the great players of all time, warranting a Hall of Fame bust. He will get that in 2019, by which time he will also have achieved sainthood, if not by the Catholic Church than in the conclave of public opinion. 

The narrative of Jeter the great man, transcendent teammate, clutch performer, etc., etc., etc. has been written, validated and parroted so often that critical thinking is no longer expected or even desired.

Many Jeter worshippers will agree that one play above all others encapsulates his career. They are correct about the play, but not about why. It is the catch in a regular-season game against the Red Sox in 2004 in which he dove into the stands to snare a foul ball and came away with it despite a collision with metal seats that left him bloody faced and glassy eyed.

The collective wisdom about the catch is that it demonstrated his resolve, his team play, his guttiness, his selflessness, his hustle -- take your pick or choose them all. It catapulted him, or rather vindicated the catapulting that had already occurred, into the stratosphere of greats.

It is a microcosm of Jeter's career for a different reason: it is grossly exaggerated in the public mind's eye. In fact, as has been documented ad nauseum in this space before, Jeter made a lovely running grab roughly 10 feet from the stands before his momentum brought him to the railing. By his own admission on 60 Minutes, he hoisted himself into the seats in hopes of landing in someone's lap, having previously that season flipped over the railing and onto the concrete.

Like Jeter's entire career, there was greatness there, but it has been magnified and distorted, and has taken on an undeserved grandiosity that is now simply understood as fact in the collective consciousness.

Isn't it enough that Jeter is one of the five or six best shortstops of all time, that he's the all-time Yankee hit king, that he owns a .312 batting average and .381 OBP, 348 steals at a 79% clip, 13 seasons of 100+ runs scored, 94 offensive wins against replacement and all the other records? Must we lard his accomplishments with fatuous ideas about his fielding ability, his "clutchness," his leadership skills and his character? There is ample evidence that he has been a below-average fielding shortstop, he captained the worst collapse in baseball playoff history, he was lucky to play for the richest and most talent-stocked franchise in the game and he is a gentleman and a scholar who treats others with respect, but is never mistaken for Nelson Mandella.

Hats off to Derek Jeter for a spectacular career, as no doubt will happen, endlessly, during his farewell tour around the leagues this year. It hasn't started and it is already getting old.

Why Your Cleanup Hitter Doesn't Matter

The headlines for Derek Jeter's storybook return to the big leagues occasionally veered off into the ludicrous meme of The Captain Rescuing the Yankees. Even most casual fans know that baseball is not basketball, where one transcendent star can alter the trajectory of a franchise.

To put a finer point on it, suppose you were offered a team with stars at catcher, shortstop, third base and two outfield positions, an ace with a 3.22 ERA, a pair of closers with 1.99 and 1.09 ERAs and a set-up guy with a 2.76. That'd be some good team, right?

Welcome to the last-place Milwaukee Brewers, even before Ryan Braun's courageous self-sacrifice. Their lineup of backstop Jonathan Lucroy  (.842 OPS), shortstop Jean Segura (.826 OPS), third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.772 OPS), outfielder Braun (.869 OPS) and MVP candidate Carlos Gomez (.892) in center sounds like a chore for opposing pitchers. (League average OPS is .723.) Yet the Beermen are in the bottom third of the Majors in scoring, due mostly to empty uniforms everywhere else.

For example, Milwaukee has punted first base, where the league average batting line is .265/.342/.430. Relegated to a full helping of Yuniesky Betancourt, Milwaukee gets .212/.238/.368 out of the position. (Yes, that's an OBP of .238, which is worse than Bud Harrelson's lifetime work, and he was a weak-hitting shortstop playing in a run-suppressing ballpark during a low-offense era.) 

Likewise the bench. When Lucroy has needed a one-day break from his squat, understudy Martin Maldonado has contributed just 10 extra base hits, eight walks and a .517 OPS in 154 plate appearances. 

On the hill, Kyle Lohse anchors the rotation with a surprising reprise of his anomalous 2012 season. Lohse's laudable 4-1 K/BB ratio has yielded an ERA 21% better than average. If he can get through six, relievers Burke Badenhop, Brandon Kintzler and Tom Henderson have done a good job closing the door, and KRod was locking it tight before his trade to Baltimore with a 1.09 ERA in 25 innings. Yet Milwaukee sits near the bottom in runs allowed.

The reason is obvious: there isn't much else. The rest of the mound corps has been a mad scramble for adequacy, lowlighted by presumed ace Yovani Gallardo, whose 4.91 ERA is bolstered by the 10% of runs he's allowed being ruled "unearned." Among the parade of hurlers who have started games for the Brewers (11), Johnny Hellweg has lasted just 11 innings in his three starts, but that's been long enough to allow 19 hits, 13 walks and 20 runs (13 earned), an RA of 16.86. (His ERA is a mere 10.97.)

The Sudsmakers do have a team strength -- defensive efficiency -- which is slightly above league average, but not nearly enough to cover the limp bats and weak arms. Despite the convincing individual performances, this team is balanced in its lousiness.

The takeaway: don't judge a team by its big star, its three and four hitters, its ace or its closer. Every MLB contingent boasts a star at those positions. The real differences between October participants and cellar dwellers are the number eight hitter, the fourth starter, the third guy off the bench and the bullpen. It's why Milwaukee is 46-63 despite employing an MVP contender. It also explains why Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson, despite their extreme aptitude at baseball, are not rescuing the Yankees this year.

The Post I'd Like To Write, But Don't Have The Data To Support

If only I were a Sabremetrician.

If only I had access to big piles of data about older players and their return from injury.

Then I could write this blog post.

The one about how Derek Jeter's career could be effectively over even if he returns from his ankle injury and performs well in August and September, and even beyond. 

(Which reminds me: Jeter tweeted yesterday that he's almost ready to begin his rehab assignment in the Minors. I wonder if Brian Cashman is going to respond by telling Alex Rodriguez to shut the !@#$%^&*! up.)

Somewhere out there is a warehouse of data about how 39-year-olds perform after major injuries that sideline them for eight months, which is how long the Yankee shortstop's been laid up. 

My guess is that it does not bode well, not only because there aren't a whole lot of 39-year-olds performing at a high level to begin with, and not only because those who do generally play more sedentary positions like 1B or DH. Mainly it's because when it comes to 39-year-olds, major injuries never completely heal.

Compounding that, the ankle is the worst joint for a shortstop to injure. Every move on defense is a fast-twitch explosion at the ankle. If we thought "Pastadiving" was Jeter's first name before the injury, it might get shortened to "Past" following his return from injury. In addition, pain will likely accompany sprints around the bases. 

So if playing shortstop and running the bases -- two staples of Jeter's career -- are problematic, what joy will there be for him on the field?

Keep in mind, that's the best case scenario. The worst case is that he can't return at all, or he returns and re-injures the ankle, or gets hurt some other way, or just isn't the Derek Jeter of old --even the one of age 38. 

It's easy to see Jeter gutting it out for a couple of months in 2013 and then concluding he can't make it through a whole season of the pain at age 40. It's not far-fetched to imagine every twinge adding to the argument that he's gotten everything he can out of his career. There's really no reason for him to drag a shell of his talent -- if that's what he becomes -- through another 162-game season to tarnish his legacy and leave a sad, withered image on our minds' retinas, the one many of us have of Willie Mays as a Met.

The Yankee captain has an $8 million player option for next year, so he wouldn't be leaving large sums of money (in baseball superstar terms) on the table if he retired. It's easy to see the Steinbrenners keeping him on the payroll for that sum in another capacity.

So here's the conclusion I believe I'd reach if I had the data: don't bank on Derek Jeter returning to star form again, and don't be surprised if last year's playoffs were effectively the end of his career.

Who Doesn't Belong On Your All-Star Ballot

Many Americans vote for their President, US Senator and House member without much thought. They vote for the guy they like, or listen to one speech and make up their minds or enter the voting booth not sure and pull one lever or another based on whim.

But the MLB All-Star ballot, that's a sacred rite! So, okay, there's not much point in treating the vote as if lives depend on it.

On the other hand, it's reasonable to avoid blatant injustice if you can. So let's take a look at the All-Star ballot. Here's mine:

AL
1B - Chris Davis, BAL -- maybe the first half MVP
2B - Robinson Cano, NY -- the best player having the best season
SS - Jed Lowrie, OAK -- in a close vote
3B - Miguel Cabrera, DET -- any questions?
DH - David Ortiz, BOS -- there's really no one else
C - Joe Mauer, MIN -- no contest
OF - Mike Trout, ANA -- best in the majors
OF - Adam Jones, BAL -- because he slugs and plays center
OF - Alex Gordon, KC -- he does it all

NL
1B - Joey Votto, CIN -- the best player having the best season
2B - Matt Carpenter, StL -- No track record, but he's by far the best this season
SS - Troy Tulowitzki, COL -- he's hurt, but give him the honor and then replace him with Segura
3B - David Wright, NY -- head and shoulders above the crowd
C - Yadier Molina, StL -- his defense gets the nod over Posey
OF - Shin-soo Choo, CIN -- he just gets on and on and on
OF - Andrew McCutchen, PIT -- stud's getting it done again
OF - Domonic Brown, PHI -- gave him the nod over Gerardo Parra

Others whom you might have reasonably selected:
Paul Goldschmidt, AZ at NL 1B -- He's unlikely to maintain his .300+ average while Votto will
Jason Kipnis, CLE at AL 2B -- A breakout with the bat, but Cano does that every year
Dustin Pedroia, BOS at AL 2B -- He's got the track record but lacks Cano's power and durability
Marco Scutaro, SF at NL 2B -- Another nice season, but w/o power pales compared to Carpenter
Jhonny Peralta, DET at AL SS -- Hitting better than Lowrie and both are defensively suspect
Jean Segura, MIL at NL SS -- Hard to vote for a player based on 80 games when there's a real option
Buster Posey, SF at NL C -- You know he'll keep hitting like this; Molina probably won't
Brett Gardner, NYY at AL OF -- Splitting hairs left him off
Gerardo Parra, AZ, at NL OF -- See above note
Carlos Gonzalez, COL at NL OF -- Denver casts a shadow on his big numbers 
Michael Cuddyer, COL at NL OF -- The hitting streak will end for this .805 OPS lifetime hitter
Ryan Braun, MIL at NL OF -- missing the power and maybe the credibility
Torii Hunter, ANA; Coco Crisp, OAK; Michael Bourn, CLE at AL OF -- good players getting it done in '13.

Here are some players who will get votes but whom you can't reasonably vote for: 

Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texeira, Curtis Granderson, Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp or anyone else who's sat this spring more than he's stood.

Yasiel Puig, because of the small sample size. The Puig phenomenon belongs at the game but he shouldn't replace someone who has earned the start all year.

Evan Longoria or Manny Machado. They're raking and deserve to be in Flushing, but voting for anyone besides Miguel Cabrera should freeze your account and void your ballot.

Edwin Encarnacion, James Loney or anyone at AL first base besides Chris Davis. If hitting .330/.404/.704 with 28 homers doesn't earn your vote, no one does.

Melky Cabrera because you thought M. Cabrera on the ballot meant Miguel and you don't know that Miguel isn't an outfielder.

Players batting .249/.298/.367 who are on your favorite team.

Albert Pujols. A vote for him indicates you are not paying sufficient attention to merit even one vote, much less the 75 cast from my computer. Long live democracy!

Lots of Hits From These Three Records

Three notable accomplishments are in the news these days -- Ichiro's 2000th hit, Derek Jeter's Yankee-record safety and Mariano Rivera's 38 saves in 39 opportunities. Certainly these are three spectacular players, two sure-fire Hall of Famers and one probable one.

On the other hand, these records are something of a sideshow. After all, accumulating tons of hits often requires an inability to take a free pass. That's certainly a black mark against Ichiro. He would be a much more productive leadoff hitter if he walked 75 times a year rather than collect another 25 singles while producing 50 outs.

It's a bit more complicated with Derek Jeter, who does work the count and earn his share of bases on balls. His almost inevitable drive to 3,000 hits is based mostly on the intersection of consistent excellence with durability. This year, Jeter has reached a new level of performance just as age should be eating away at his skills.

Nonetheless, how important can it be to accumulate a large number of hits when you've passed Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio and Babe Ruth and are hot on the heels of Lou Gehrig? Clearly, Jeter's abundance of hits is less impressive than the Babe's, the Clipper's or the Mick's. That's not to say that there are any bad players where Jeter is going -- to 3,000 Land -- but hits themselves only tell part of the story.

Then there is the circus act that is the save. It happens that 38/39 accurately reflects the pitching performance of the greatest closer of all time, but in a year in which 2008's 38/39 guy is leaking like a dented sieve, we can't be faulted for being dubious about that stat. It's too bad, because Rivera is having another amazing season and even drawing some Cy Young consideration. (It's a nice sentiment, but at this point, Zack Greinke is so Cy the next candidate is third.)

Many baseball records are interesting from an academic standpoint but have limited meaning. These three (really two) fall into that category. Plus, they'll fill out the plaques in Cooperstown.
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Yankee Ingenuity

Word from Yankee spring training camp is that Joe Girardi will flip Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon in the lineup, moving his shortstop up to leadoff. Jeter's response was that he doesn't care, telling the Associated Press, "You hit 60 seconds earlier than you normally do."

One of the things that great players often demonstrate is an intuitive feel for the game that had never been borne out by the numbers, or even by conventional wisdom. I'm reminded of Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens, both correctly attributing statistical declines in their mid-career performance to bad luck and weak defense respectively. Each went on to win subsequent Cy Youngs.

Jeter's flippancy about his place in the batting order demonstrates that he understands how irrelevant it is. Batting order is largely immaterial beyond a few rudimentary concepts. As long as your best hitters bat at the top of the order, and you maximize the effects of handedness, there's little to be gained by sweating the exact order. About the only egregious error that managers regularly commit is to bat a weak-hitting speedster in the leadoff spot. Simply put, that strategy gives a weak hitter 50 extra plate appearances a year.

Being similar kinds of hitters, either Jeter or Damon would be a reasonable choice to lead off. Both get on base and around the bases, but are unlikely to waste a lot of home runs to start the game.

So why bother? My guess is that Girardi exploited Damon's .375 OBP last year and expects him to regress closer to his career average of .354 this year, while recognizing that Jeter's .363 OBP in 2008 was the second lowest of his career and is more like to edge closer to his lifetime .383 pace this year. If so, it demonstrates that Girardi also understands something about baseball.

How Many Rings: #3 In A Series

In his 13-year career as a utility infielder, Luis Sojo hit a rancid 29% below league average. Playing mostly in the Bronx, he averaged 198 generally futile at-bats a year while filling in ably in the field at 2B, SS and 3B.

But if Sojo decided to flash his World Series rings, he'd look like Richie Havens. His right hand would sport a ring for each finger.

So, was Sojo a great player? Was he superior to Ty Cobb, who never won a championship?

Put that way, it seems idiotic, yet this line of reasoning is regularly used (in all sports) to aggrandize or demean players whose career performance should otherwise speak for themselves. In baseball even more than in other sports, the rhetorical question "how many rings does he have?' is asinine. Team championships in an individual player's curriculum vitae may very well be the most overblown concept in sports.

No batter can occupy more than one of nine positions in the batting order. A shortstop can't contribute behind the plate, at the infield corners or in the outfield. A starting pitcher sits on the bench four out of every five days. A closer takes a siesta for eight-ninths of the contests he enters, and if he enters half of them over a season, that's a lot. In short, attributing a team's performance to one player is like predicting a hurricane because the air is warm.

For a long time, people credited Derek Jeter with having some special skill that led the Yankees to four World Series wins in five years. I'll tell you what special skill he had -- being on the Yankees! Having the good fortune to play alongside the best players is an excellent formula for winning. Since 2004, the quality of the players on the Yankees has declined and the results have been predictable. Jeter hasn't lost any hidden skill because he didn't have one in the first place.

The flip side of that is Mike Mussina. A great competitor for the Orioles, Moose joined the Yanks in '01, after their fourth title in five years. They never won another in his seven years of stellar pitching for NY. Did he bring negative mojo with him to the Bronx, or did the parade of defensively-challenged, over-the-hill sluggers and noodle-armed pitchers off career years stymie their aspirations?

I hope baseball writers with Hall of Fame votes, whose ranks now include a handful of more analytical Internet correspondents, will keep this in mind when weighing the relative merits of nominees. Whether a player's teams won or lost is of little relevance to his personal merit as a Major Leaguer. Either that or Luis Sojo deserves some consideration.