It's Mike Trout and It's Not That Close

For the fourth consecutive year -- indeed, for the only four years of his career -- Mike Trout will finish in the top two in the MVP race. Also for the fourth time, he should finish first, ahead of a star with bigger traditional numbers. And for the third time, he might finish second.

Josh Donaldson has produced a monster season for the Blue Jays, hitting .298 with 41 homers and a league-leading 123 RBI. He's scored a league-pacing 122 runs too. His OBP-SLG of .373/.571 places him second in the AL in OPS.

Behind Mike Trout, whose .299-41-90 with 104 runs scored and a .400-.588 OBP-SLG gives him 44 points more of OPS.

Here's the comparison, with league-leading numbers in bold.
Trout            .299-41-90   104R .402/.590/.992 176 OPS+ .353 TAv
Donaldson  .297-41-123 122R .370/.569/.939 155 OPS+ .323 TAv

In other words, Donaldson leads in team events because he bats in the middle of that historically-potent Blue Jays lineup. Trout leads in measures of individual excellence.

Both are superb base runners who have not applied that to base stealing. Donaldson has swiped all six of his attempts. Trout, once a 40-steal guy, is just 11 of 18. That's a ding against Trout.

Both light up the web gems highlight reel. Donaldson is generally considered even more special at his position than Trout is at his, but Trout plays the more critical CF to Donaldson's hot corner.

Factoring in their ballparks and strength of opposing pitchers, Trout has produced 8.7 offensive wins for his team, 13% more than Donaldson's 7.7, according to Baseball Reference. Baseball Prospectus has the gap even wider, and rates Trout the better fielder too.

Sentiment had shifted toward Donaldson as he and Toronto heated up while Trout and the Of Anaheims cooled in August. But the tables turned some in September/October as Trout humped it up and his team hung in the playoff race until the last day. Of course, the performance of his teammates should be of no consequence to a player's MVP candidacy: it's not up to him whether the nine wins he adds are wins 71-79 or wins 87-95.

So a voter could cast his vote for Josh Donaldson for 2015 AL MVP and that would be a perfectly reasonable choice. No one could argue that Donaldson didn't deserve it for the quantum leap he's taken this year following his shocking trade from Oakland. It's just that Trout is clearly the better candidate, not by a significant margin, but by enough that everyone ought to recognize it.

The AL MVP: 2012 Redux

Should we hold it against an MVP candidate that he hit just .265 with two extra base hits in September crunch time? How about that he did most of his damage before the All-Star break? Or do we acknowledge that a great May (when he hit .379 with 21 extra base hits) helps his team win just as much as a big finish? Isn't the MVP award a referendum on an entire season, irrespective of the chronology of the performance?

Miguel Cabrera led the league in batting average, on-base average, slugging percentage and OPS. He hit 44 home runs, second most in the American League. He batted .635/.850/.1.375 on 3-1 counts (40 of 'em) and .397/.529/.782 with runners in scoring position. His 2013 performance has been historic, especially in light of his 2012 domination.

So forget about his anti-climatic last month. The reason that Miguel Cabrera isn't the American League MVP is that over the course of the season, he wasn't the best player.

Yes, here we go again.

Whether Cabrera is the best hitter in the world is about as debatable as whether the U.S. has too much debt. He's hit .338 with 88 homers and 276 RBI with an OPS over 1000 over the past two seasons. (The debt, on the other hand, is hitting 20 trillion.) Baseball is more than hitting, though. It's baserunning and defense too, and Cabrera is below average in both areas. He's among the league leaders in grounding into double plays and waddles the extra base less often than most men on base. On defense, well, he's a world-class hitter. If we put his defense and baserunning in batting average terms, Cabrera would be a .240 baserunner and a .220 fielder at third.

There's an MVP candidate -- Mike Trout, of course -- who, like MIguel Cabrera, is a terror at the plate. He's hit .323/.431/.554 this year. Where Cabrera has performed 98% above average at the plate, Trout has performed 78% better.  That's a big difference. But there's a gaping chasm between Trout and Cabrera in the other aspects of the game. Trout has stolen 33 bases in 40 tries, among baseball's best. The nascent base running metrics suggest he's elite at taking the extra base as well. 

In the field, Trout is enough of a hit-killer to patrol the critical central pasture. The defensive difference between a mediocre center fielder and a mediocre third baseman is as wide as Cabrera himself. Trout is rated anywhere between just another guy and God's gift to turf by the computers, the scouts and the highlight reels. Even by the least generous accounting, Miguel Cabrera can't pack Trout's lunch with the glove.

Add it all up, divide by the level of competition they face, multiply by generosity of their home park and you get this: Mike Trout has been the most valuable to his team this year. Consider three different measuring systems using wins against replacement:

Baseball-Reference
Trout     9.1
Cabrera  7.1. 

Baseball Prospectus
Trout     10.3
Cabrera  7.4

Fangraphs 
Trout     10.2 
Cabrera  7.7

By some accounting, Cabrera isn't even the second-best player in the league this year. Josh Donaldson, Oakland's slick-fielding third baseman, has hit .302/.383/.502 with 24 homers in that trench in Oakland. Baseball-Reference has him nearly a run more valuable than Cabrera. They also rate the Atlas of New York, Robinson Cano, at 7.6 WAR for his .313/.383/.514 performance from the keystone. 

Other legitimate candidates include Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis (.287/.370/.634 with 53 homers), Texas cornerman Adrian Beltre (.315/.372/.506 with 29 HR) Boston DH David Ortiz (.308/.395/.565 and 30 HR), Cleveland second baseman Jason Kipnis (.281/.363/.487 with 29 of 36 steals) and Blue Jay diamond-crosser Edwin Encarnacion (.272/.370/.534 with 36 HR). Season with pitchers if you like, but they have their own award.

Mike Trout is the most valuable player in the American League again this year and it isn't particularly close. In the voting that actually bestows the award, if the race is between the tortoise, Cabrera, and the hare, Trout, we know how it will end. Because there is still a majority of sportswriters whose version of baseball is a fairy tale.

Next time, the NL MVP.

6,930,001

The post-MVP vote storm has subsided and few minds have been expanded. Miguel Cabrera, a better MVP candidate than everyone in the American League -- by Prince Fielder's waistline -- except for Mike Trout, won the award. 

There are two simple conclusions to draw: 

1. The optimist's: a player with an MVP-quality season was so honored. The result was far from the travesty sometimes reported.
2. And the pessimist's: the MVP didn't get the hardware. The fight for knowledge is incomplete.

The "traditionalists" who focused on the Triple Crown and a playoff berth, previously debunked here and so many elsewheres that a Google search of Mike Trout MVP yields 6,930,0000 returns, have attempted to demonstrate that 59 is more than 76. (Their respective offensive runs against replacement.) That dog won't hunt, but if you don't hunt, and you've never had a dog, it's hard to understand. To the rest of us, the argument is transparently false.

On the other hand, 59 is more than 53 and 49 and every other number in the league. So there's that.

Cry not for Mike Trout. He's 21. He'd be well-advised to lease a gigantic trophy case. 

As for the writers and their fellow travelers, hey, it's only been 33 years since Bill James's first Baseball Abstract. Give them time to adjust.

Dead Horse Beating Zone

As the Twins and Tigers begin a weekend duel with an incipient division race in the balance, it's a good time to address the AL MVP race.

There is no AL MVP race. It is not a subject for rational debate among those who know what they are looking at. Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer is not just the best player in the Junior Circuit this year, he's knocking on history's door. Should he maintain his .374 batting average, it will go down as the highest ever by a backstop. Should he maintain his .441 OBP and .610 SA, the real debate will be whether Mauer or Mike Piazza owns the greatest offensive season produced out of a squat. It's worth noting that while Piazza couldn't throw out a slug running uphill through molasses, Mauer is an above-average defensive player.

The pages, speakers and screens have certainly featured homages to the candidacies of Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and others. Each has his strengths, but stands in Joe Mauer's shadow this year. (Future readers, if there are such things, may very well note that that sentence includes the names of four Hall of Famers.)

Rivera is the greatest of all time, has whiffed more than a batter an inning, sports a nifty 1.66 ERA and has blown all of one save. But even a season of perfect games isn't MVP material when you only pitch 60 innings, or four percent of your team's games. Let Rivera record three-inning saves, then we'll talk.

Teixeira has the pedigree that people who know nothing about baseball (i.e., sportswriters and yakkers) worship above all else: he collects RBIs for the league's best team. Beyond that, his .289/.378/.543 pales next to Mauer's. And for all his advantage as a home run hitter, Tex has outslugged Mauer 35-27 in 120 extra plate appearances. Throw in the yawning chasm between Mauer's accomplishments at the most difficult defensive position and Teixeira's at the easiest and, well, you're not a sportswriter, so you don't need it explained.

Jeter's .330/.399/.466, solid play at the next toughest defensive position, and 26 successful steals in 31 attempts, make him a solid second choice. Not a close second, but nothing to hang his 35-year-old head about. Relative to a replacement level shortstop, Jeter has added about six wins to his team. That's impressive, and double Teixeira's value versus a replacement level first baseman.

Mauer, he's an eight-and-a-half win bump relative to a replacement level catcher. Indeed, during the first month of the season while Mauer rehabbed from back surgery, fill-in Mike Redmond "hit" a whopping .238/.303/.292 with six extra base hits, not one of which was home run.

Now the elephant in the room. (Caution, dead horse beating zone.) Mauer is the MVP whether the Twins extinguish the Tigers and burst into a division title or fade like an old soldier and finish below .500. The eight and a half wins he's contributed are the same whether they are wins 69-77 or wins 84-92. Mauer's candidacy is unaffected by Minny's feckless pitching or limpid lineup. Similarly, Mark Teixeira can't be the MVP just because he plays with Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia and Mariano Rivera.

Now, two words about the NL MVP race: Albert Pujols. Question, discussion, conclusion.
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And Grady and Josh Too...

In my AL MVP critique, I left off two players who belong in the discussion, one on purpose and one accidentally. I've already mentioned in a previous post that while Josh Hamilton's story is remarkable, the MVP should go to the player who's created the most value, not the most good PR, for his team.

Hamilton's .910 OPS is spectacular for a center fielder, but he's really a miscast right fielder pressed into service up the middle. His 32 homers and .307 average are less impressive when you consider the launching pad in which he plays.

Many BBWAA will be bamboozled by Hamilton's nifty RBI collection, but RBIs require RBI opportunities, something Hamilton has in spades hitting in that lineup and in that ballpark.

Grady Sizemore actually has hit one more dinger than Hamilton in a tougher home field and he's a legitimate center fielder. He has added value as a leadoff hitter; unfortunately for the Indians, he was their only hitter for much of the year. His OPS of .882 is three percent lower than Hamilton's, but he's a force on the basebpaths -- 38 steals in 43 attempts.

The verdict on Sizemore, and particularly Hamilton is that they're reasonable Top Ten MVP selections, but the hardware's still saved for Mauer or Pedroia.

Up for Grabs

What do Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youklis, Milton Bradley, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Quentin, Alex Rodriguez and Cliff Lee have in common? Each of them can make a case to be the AL MVP. At the same time, none of them can make a strong case.

Cliff Lee, of course, has been spectacular for the Indians. While his team's offense has sputtered, he's posted a 22-3, 2.54 record and a 5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 223 innings. He's been not just an innings eater; he's been an innings killer. His value, relative to the value of a AAA-level replacement at his position, has been the highest in the American League.

But pitchers have their own award, which Lee will win over Roy Halladay in Johnson-Goldwater style. Besides, no one really has confidence that there's any way to compare pitchers to everyday players.

Milton Bradley has been the best hitter in the AL when he's been healthy. He's gotten on base safely 44% of the time and pounded 22 homers and 32 doubles in just 500 plate appearances, and played a creditable outfield on those 37 occasions when he's been asked to. The problem with Bradley's candidacy is that during the nearly 40 games he's missed this season, his value to his team has been zero. That and the park effects of whatever they're calling The Ballpark at Arlington these days really hamper his claim.

As is his wont, Alex Rodriguez has been the best player in the AL this year. His .963 OPS, his 11th straight season with 35 homers, his 18 steals in 21 attempts and his good defense at an important position are straight out of MVP Central Casting. But there is no doubt that ARod has peed his pants everytime the Bombers have needed him to come up big.

Dustin Pedroia seems to have a lot of support for AL MVP. He's been the Red Sox sparkplug, hitting safely 38% of the time with surprising power -- 54 doubles and 17 jacks -- while swiping 20 of 21 bags. On top of that, he's an excellent middle infielder. He may not have the numbers of competitiors at DH and first base, but he'd be significantly more difficult to replace.

Paired with Pedroia is Ian Kinsler, whose resume is eerily similar. His on-base percentage matches Pedroia's and he's hit for even more power and succeeded in 26 of 28 steal attempts. He's also a very good second-sacker. But Pedroia gets the edge because he's played nearly 40 more games and batted in a tougher home park for offense.

Carolos Quentin's problem is not just that he's missed 32 games, but the 32 most critical of the year. As the White Sox struggle to hold off the Twins, Quentin can't contribute a thing to his team because of his broken wrist. It's not his fault that he got hit by a pitch, but it's the fact nonetheless. Lo siento, Carlos.

Kevin Youklis is a fine first-bagger with a .965 OPS who has been a steady force on the Red Sox all season, but an MVP? His credentials are more like "she has a nice personality" than "man, she's hot!" Much the same can be said for Justin Morneau, whose .883 OPS as a first baseman is just not MVP material.

I don't know how many baseball writers have slept with Morneau's wife, but something about him engenders love from the baseball media far beyond his baseball accomplishments. We already know he wasn't Deep Throat, right? With the prospect of another Morneau MVP unforeclosed, Bud Selig should agree immediately to apply the video replay rule to the BBWAA vote. That call would get overturned by a knowledgable umpire so fast it would leave Usain Bolt in the dust.

As a matter of fact, Justin Morneau is the second best player on the Twins. Imagine if you could find a guy who hits just as well, but plays a position where hitters are scarcer than truths in a presidential election. Batting champion Joe Mauer's .867 OPS comes out of a squat. The OPS of the next best fulltime AL catcher? Dioner Navarro's .756. That gives Minnesota a giant advantage over other teams.

To beat a dead horse, notice that none of the candidates has been examined in the context of his team's place in the standings. All they can do is contribute wins to their teams by swinging the ash and pumping the leather. Whether those are wins 90-99 or 70-79 is a matter for their teammates to answer for.

One more thing from the equine mortuary: there is little place in this discussion for late season heroics. Why give extra credit to a player who saddles his team with a weak first-half performance and then turns it on in August? How is that better than carrying your team to a big lead and tailing off as the summer turns to Fall? Or just playing consistantly well all 162 games?

Dustin Pedroia and Joe Mauer are my MVP guys and frankly I'm not sure how to distinguish them. Baseball writers who mark their ballots for ARod or Quentin or Lee will be excused for their mental absence. But if Francisco Rodriguez gets even a third place vote, the perpetrator(s) should be hunted down and forced to watch Pirate games for the next decade.