Nothing From Nothing Leaves Nothing: The Soriano Trade

"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'. You gotta have somethin', if you wanna be with me."
Billy Preston, 1975

Reports out of everywhere but the Walterboro Pennysaver say that the Yankees will trade minor league pitcher Corey Black to the Cubs for a return of Alfonso Soriano to pinstripes. New York will pick up the remainder of this year's gargantuan salary and Chicago will cover all of next year's. That means Soriano doesn't count against the Yankees' payroll number when determining the luxury tax in 2014.

The word "blecch" comes to mind. Or perhaps "yuck." Or "blahhhhh." 

The Cubs could have flipped Soriano for some real prospects at the end of last season. Coming off an .821 OPS hitting year with newfound respect in the clubhouse, the 36-year-old Dominican had some value. Sure, he's roadkill in left field, but a weak-hitting AL team could have used him, assuming the Cubs would eat most of the salary.

But at age 37, his walk rate is back in the sewer, he's dipped below average as a hitter at his position and he's losing his wheels. A 70-point decline in OPS with the arrow pointing in the wrong direction has sapped Soriano of much of his trade value. And so the Cubs must pay $18 million for the privilege of watching Corey Black throw minor league middle relief. Baseball Prospectus says he projects as a seventh-inning guy. That's not much return for a player approaching 400 home runs and 300 steals.

The dearth of right-handed hitting in the Bronx has been well documented. Soriano has popped 10 homers in the last month; all of Yankeedom, eight. Righty batters have socked one home run for the Bombers since June 5th.  NYY's right-handed batting roster has the worst OPS in MLB by 30 points. And so on.

This could explain why Soriano might help the Yankees this year, but . . . do what? They have by far outperformed their ability as a team and are less likely to be relevant in October than Anthony Weiner. The injuries, the ARod soap opera, the careers in twilight, the empty farm system -- this team needs to retool, not buy old tools and reuse them.  At age 38 next year, Soriano will cause car wrecks in the field, but on the Yankees, with a plethora of aging DHs, that's where he must play. A team that ought to be cashing in expiring contracts and building for the future has saddled itself with yet another declining veteran.

In sum, this trade is a desperate move by both parties who each seem to have lost an opportunity in the bargain. Neither side sacrificed anything of value, but neither received anything of value either. Billy Preston would be proud.

Intriguing Teams of 2011, Part 2

It's not every year that people write off a team projected to win 91 games and sport a 71% chance of reaching the playoffs. With the Yankees, whose usual playoff odds are in the Ghaddafi election win realm, a mere seven out of ten seems like a brewing disaster.

No doubt, the coupling of Boston's winter signings and trades with the retirement of Andy Pettitte, leaves New York playing second fiddle to the Red Sox in the 2011 AL Beast. Unless they reprise their 2010 injury explosion, the Red Sox have few weaknesses, while the Yankees have a severely depleted starting pitching staff after Misters Sabathia and Hughes. Banking on AJ Burnett, Sergio Mitre, Ivan Nova and their ilk sounds an awful lot like giving mortgages to people without money and expecting them to make the payments. The results could be similar.

On the other hand, let's not forget that the entire Yankee infield has a VIP pass to Cooperstown. It's all the rage these days to dismiss Derek Jeter as a career that's passed, but great players have a knack for rebounding from bad performances with renewed dedication. That's not to say that Jeter can escape the ravages of age -- he's unlikely to ever again be an adequate shortstop afield -- but don't be surprised if he bounces back with the bat  and hits near .300, which would alone qualify him among the two or three best-hitting shortstops in the league. In addition, a deep outfield and well-stocked bench mean Big Apple fans will continue to enjoy the league's most potent lineup.

New Yorkers are exfoliating themselves over the rotation, and again, there is some cause for concern. But how many teams can trot out five reliable arms? If two of the menagerie of pitchers on the spring roster can coax league average performance out of their arms to complement Sabathia and Hughes, the bats and bullpen can make it work. It's easy to disregard the off-season bullpen moves and the yawning margin of error afforded to starters by Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano; nonetheless, they're real and relevant.

Of course, all this ignores the elephant in the room, or rather, approaching the room at a pachyderm's pace. Come trade deadline the Yankees will, with near certainty, provide cost relief to some non-contender or three by removing the burden of paying their ace, and/or star backstop, and/or slugging outfielder. The franchise's revenue and tradition advantages will be exploited to keep the Yankees in the race, regardless of the flailings of the #s3-5 starters.

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