The Beginning of the End of the Cubs Dynasty

When I was in high school, the Ford Administration declined to bail out New York City from its undisciplined and profligate spending.

On the day of the President's decision, the Daily News, then in a battle royale against the even more brazen NY Post for readers, ran the headline, "Ford to City, Drop Dead."

It was a blatantly sensationalist and utterly unwarranted headline.

Which brings us to this post, whose headline is also mildly sensationalist.

The point is this: The Cubs' acquisition of pitcher Jose Quintana at the expense of top prospect, Eloy Jimenez; a top pitching prospect; and two other farmhands; marks a seminal moment for the team in their adventure to dynasty status.

When the feckless Cubs were dropped into the care of Curse-killer Theo Epstein in 2011, his first task was a gut job of the existing foundation. He auctioned off every artifact of present value, like Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza, in return for future value that turned into the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell and Jake Arrieta.

Combining high draft picks and strong development, Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer built, brick by brick, the incredibly talented and youthful Cubs we have today.

By 2015 it was becoming clear that the rebuild was complete and it was time to decorate. The Cubs signed Jon Lester, flipped highly-prized Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman, and turned potential star Jorge Soler into reliable closer Wade Davis. Epstein and Hoyer were using their incredible minor league stash to fashion a World Series champion.

With Quintana's addition, that phase is now complete. The Cubs' farm system is now deflowered, with all their prospects on the 40-man roster. If they are going to produce multiple World Series championships, it will be with this group.

For the next five years, for better or worse, these are the Cubs. There will be no more uber-talented teenagers to crash the party and suggest championships into the unforeseeable future.

That has huge implications for 2017. With the team floundering at .500, 4.5 games behind Milwaukee, the future is in the hands of the present. The cavalry will not ride in from the Minors. There's nothing of trade value down below to dangle in exchange for a missing piece. Either Kris Bryant, Kyle Scharber and John Lackey play better or they will miss the playoffs.

And the same for next year. And the year after that. As of this week, we have seen the end of the build in Chicago.

Nothing From Nothing Leaves Nothing: The Soriano Trade

"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'. You gotta have somethin', if you wanna be with me."
Billy Preston, 1975

Reports out of everywhere but the Walterboro Pennysaver say that the Yankees will trade minor league pitcher Corey Black to the Cubs for a return of Alfonso Soriano to pinstripes. New York will pick up the remainder of this year's gargantuan salary and Chicago will cover all of next year's. That means Soriano doesn't count against the Yankees' payroll number when determining the luxury tax in 2014.

The word "blecch" comes to mind. Or perhaps "yuck." Or "blahhhhh." 

The Cubs could have flipped Soriano for some real prospects at the end of last season. Coming off an .821 OPS hitting year with newfound respect in the clubhouse, the 36-year-old Dominican had some value. Sure, he's roadkill in left field, but a weak-hitting AL team could have used him, assuming the Cubs would eat most of the salary.

But at age 37, his walk rate is back in the sewer, he's dipped below average as a hitter at his position and he's losing his wheels. A 70-point decline in OPS with the arrow pointing in the wrong direction has sapped Soriano of much of his trade value. And so the Cubs must pay $18 million for the privilege of watching Corey Black throw minor league middle relief. Baseball Prospectus says he projects as a seventh-inning guy. That's not much return for a player approaching 400 home runs and 300 steals.

The dearth of right-handed hitting in the Bronx has been well documented. Soriano has popped 10 homers in the last month; all of Yankeedom, eight. Righty batters have socked one home run for the Bombers since June 5th.  NYY's right-handed batting roster has the worst OPS in MLB by 30 points. And so on.

This could explain why Soriano might help the Yankees this year, but . . . do what? They have by far outperformed their ability as a team and are less likely to be relevant in October than Anthony Weiner. The injuries, the ARod soap opera, the careers in twilight, the empty farm system -- this team needs to retool, not buy old tools and reuse them.  At age 38 next year, Soriano will cause car wrecks in the field, but on the Yankees, with a plethora of aging DHs, that's where he must play. A team that ought to be cashing in expiring contracts and building for the future has saddled itself with yet another declining veteran.

In sum, this trade is a desperate move by both parties who each seem to have lost an opportunity in the bargain. Neither side sacrificed anything of value, but neither received anything of value either. Billy Preston would be proud.

Sometimes the Bear Eats You

Just a quick note about the Cubs-Dodgers fiasco (for Chicagoans, anyway). The playoffs marked the fifth time this season that the Cubs lost three games in a row. It happens.

Also, a note about the Manny Ramirez pickup. According to Baseball Prospectus, Manny's performance post-trade deadline was among the best all time and added five wins to L.A.'s win total compared to a replacement-level outfielder. Of course, Manny was traded for Jason Bay, who is significantly better than a replacement-level outfielder, but even then, Manny added about three wins over only two months of the season.

Throw in, unscientifically, another half-win for the ancillary effect his acquisition had on the rest of the lineup and Ramirez was the difference for the Dodgers between facing the Phillies for the pennant and watching Arizona take on Chicago from their couches.

It's also worth noting, if it's any consolation to Cubs fans, that the best team in the NL did not lose to the playoffs' worst. With Manny, the Dodgers won 33 of 56 games, a 95-win clip. Add to that the returns of Nomar Garciaparra and team MVP Rafael Furcal, and this is no patsy. It's anybody's NLCS.

Not As Close As You Think

The standings say the Rays have a 5.5 game lead in the AL East. Likewise the Cubs, a 4.5 game lead in the NL Central. With regard to their playoff chances though, the Rays actually have an 8.5 game head start over Minnesota and the Cubs are 10 clear of the Phils.

With 26 games left to play, it sure sounds a lot more like a sure thing now, doesn't it?

There is no discernible difference between making the playoffs with the best record in baseball or the Wild Card. The Marlins won two titles without winning their division. The Red Sox, Tigers and Rockies won berths in the last three World Series as Wild Cards.

So it's really not germane, from a post-season standpoint, whether the Cubs or Rays cede their division leads as long as they maintain their playoff positions. In that regard, the Rays aren't fending off the Red Sox, but the Twins. And the Cubs have little to worry about from the Brewers; it's the Phils they need keep at bay.

(Of course, the White Sox in the AL and the Mets in the NL might turn out to be the teams to beat for the Wild Card. Those teams would have to lose ground to be in that position. The Cards might also push their way into Wild Card contention, but they're even further back than Philly.)

With those kinds of leads, neither the Rays nor Cubs is going to lose its playoff spot unless the other teams take it from them. Even if the Cubs go 10-16 in their last 26 games, they still cruise into the post-season unless Philadelphia wins 20 of 26 games. It could happen, but it's only slightly more likely than a Nader presidency.

And for you Yankee haters out there -- (I'm talking to me) -- the news is equally good. The Yanks have to overtake Boston and Minnesota, which means they can't count on a Red Sox collapse to win the Wild Card. Down seven games with 26 left, they'd need a Rockiesque streak even to have a chance. Were they the Yankees who entered the season, that would be plausible, but there is little about the remaining collection that suggests they're capable.

Now Yankees, don't make me regret my words...