Probably the most misunderstood concept among homo sapiens is the difference between correlation and causation. Correlation is when you sit at home and yell "swing!" just before Chris Davis cranks up and smashes a home run. Causation is when Davis extends his arms and blasts one out.
The Phillies yesterday signed interim-manager Ryne Sandberg to a three-year contract. GM Ruben Amaro had been auditioning the Hall of Fame keystoner over the last 34 games and liked what he saw.
The speculation immediately fell upon the Phillies' record, which had rebounded to 18-16 under Sandberg after dropping a string of games and any pretense of a playoff challenge in Charlie Manuel's final days as manager.
No doubt Amaro cared about how the team responded to Sandberg, both in the clubhouse and on the field. If they folded up the tent upon his arrival, Amaro might have balked at a new contract. But, contrary to accepted wisdom that they're generally ungrateful prima donnas, most Major League baseball players have sufficient pride and professionalism to work hard through Game 162.
There are myriad reasons why teams slump and rebound; certainly an injection of new blood at the top might have had something to do with that. A manager creates a culture in the clubhouse and that can infect everything the team does. It's unlikely he can have that kind of impact, though, in the first, say, 20 games, which means most of the Phils' record under Sandberg's skippering is just happenstance. (They won nine of the new commander's 14 games but have gone 9-11 since.) Besides, if novelty helped boost the club, they won't ever derive that benefit again as long as Sandberg is manager.
Sandberg will be tested for real next when this reality strikes: the chickens of two World Series appearances are coming home to roost. Philadelphia has an expensive, aging and largely ineffective roster and it's only going to get worse. Besides Dominic Brown and Cole Hamels, not a single key Phillie player is on the bright side of 33. Not Ryan Howard or Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins or Carlos Ruiz or Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. That number will be 34 next year and all but Halladay and Ruiz are locked in for 2014. (The remains of Roy Halladay will be spit-roasted somewhere else, probably on the retirement list. The still-potent Ruiz will be in demand as a free agent.)
There are certainly some assets besides that crew: Darren "Babe" Ruf has mighty power. The team likes Kevin Franzen, who could supplant Howard at first if he shows he can hit. Ben Revere batted.305 and owned centerfield, but absent any walks (OBP merely .338), his value is largely dependent on keeping the batting average up. A third starter behind Lee and Hamels would give them a strong rotation in front of Jonathan Pappelbon, who is nearly the stud as he thinks he is.
Are you impressed? Neither is Washington or Atlanta, or for that matter the Mets. And even a Hall of Famer in the dugout isn't going to change that.
Showing posts with label Phillies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phillies. Show all posts
24 September 2013
13 July 2013
Phinished Phillies Phacing a CatAstroPhe
Following their World Series appearance in 2005 (a sweep at the hands of the White Sox) management of the Houston Astros decided that denial would be an appropriate strategy for the future.
So, acting as if Jeff Bagwell hadn't just retired, Craig Biggio hadn't turned to jelly at age 40 and the lineup's black holes (can you say Brad Ausmus and his 64 OPS+ in Houston?) didn't exist, management embarked on a concerted effort to be respectable over the next several years. They traded away many bits of their future to acquire post-prime veterans who could help them continue finishing around the middle of the pack.
The strategy worked -- to the extent that the team finished above .500 twice between '06 and '10 without ever losing 90 games, and Biggio retired an Astro with 3,000 hits on his resume.
Those results came at the expense of draft classes rated F, C and F by Baseball America, in part because Houston brass refused to invest in expensive signees. The Astros also passed up opportunities to trade valuable chips like Carlos Lee while they could still bring something of future value in return.
Inevitably, the team deteriorated and the future slipped past a distant horizon. After a 2011 season in which the team slipped to 106 losses, Jim Crane bought the franchise and fired GM Ed Wade and president Tal Smith. His new management team belatedly liquidated the talent en route to full-rebuild mode. Two more years of on-field misery have followed as the fans await the delayed emergence of a new crop of stars.
Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro had to be watching all this but he was apparently not taking notes. Today, Amaro is mouthing Wade's words from the end of the Astros' relevance. With his aging and ailing Phils now a game under .500 over the last 18 months, Amaro has been heard contemplating whom he'll acquire for a stretch run and blaming Ryan Howard's declining performance on a lack of desire.
Many screens have been filled blasting Amaro for his blindness, stubbornness and/or disorinetation from reality, though I'm inclined to think it's more cognitive dissonance: he signed Howard, Utley, Rollins, et. al. to their untenable contracts and can't admit they've gone bad. The Phillies are in '09 Astros mode and have only two viable options: rebuild for the future now when they can get key pieces back for the future or wait a couple of years too long and fall into total disrepair.
Think about how much some of their antiques might fetch on the Baseball Roadshow. If they're willing to eat money, Philadelphia can flip Chase Utley, Michael Young and Cliff Lee -- all 34 or over -- to contenders for significant returns of youth. Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz could net more modest benefits. Were Amaro to test the fans' limits, he could dangle All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon before the likes of Detroit and watch them wet their pants. Who needs a closer when there's nothing to close?
The point here is that the Phils must recognize what's obvious -- they're not contending this year and they need to invest in the future. Mediocrity in defense of respectability is no virtue; extreme measures in pursuit of pennants is no vice. The longer the Phillies wait to make that investment, the less they'll get for it.
So, acting as if Jeff Bagwell hadn't just retired, Craig Biggio hadn't turned to jelly at age 40 and the lineup's black holes (can you say Brad Ausmus and his 64 OPS+ in Houston?) didn't exist, management embarked on a concerted effort to be respectable over the next several years. They traded away many bits of their future to acquire post-prime veterans who could help them continue finishing around the middle of the pack.
The strategy worked -- to the extent that the team finished above .500 twice between '06 and '10 without ever losing 90 games, and Biggio retired an Astro with 3,000 hits on his resume.
Those results came at the expense of draft classes rated F, C and F by Baseball America, in part because Houston brass refused to invest in expensive signees. The Astros also passed up opportunities to trade valuable chips like Carlos Lee while they could still bring something of future value in return.
Inevitably, the team deteriorated and the future slipped past a distant horizon. After a 2011 season in which the team slipped to 106 losses, Jim Crane bought the franchise and fired GM Ed Wade and president Tal Smith. His new management team belatedly liquidated the talent en route to full-rebuild mode. Two more years of on-field misery have followed as the fans await the delayed emergence of a new crop of stars.
Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro had to be watching all this but he was apparently not taking notes. Today, Amaro is mouthing Wade's words from the end of the Astros' relevance. With his aging and ailing Phils now a game under .500 over the last 18 months, Amaro has been heard contemplating whom he'll acquire for a stretch run and blaming Ryan Howard's declining performance on a lack of desire.
Many screens have been filled blasting Amaro for his blindness, stubbornness and/or disorinetation from reality, though I'm inclined to think it's more cognitive dissonance: he signed Howard, Utley, Rollins, et. al. to their untenable contracts and can't admit they've gone bad. The Phillies are in '09 Astros mode and have only two viable options: rebuild for the future now when they can get key pieces back for the future or wait a couple of years too long and fall into total disrepair.
Think about how much some of their antiques might fetch on the Baseball Roadshow. If they're willing to eat money, Philadelphia can flip Chase Utley, Michael Young and Cliff Lee -- all 34 or over -- to contenders for significant returns of youth. Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz could net more modest benefits. Were Amaro to test the fans' limits, he could dangle All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon before the likes of Detroit and watch them wet their pants. Who needs a closer when there's nothing to close?
The point here is that the Phils must recognize what's obvious -- they're not contending this year and they need to invest in the future. Mediocrity in defense of respectability is no virtue; extreme measures in pursuit of pennants is no vice. The longer the Phillies wait to make that investment, the less they'll get for it.
09 December 2012
Phillies Get Young, Old
In the history of humankind, every empire has dissolved for the same reason: it failed to recognize that its shrinking economy could no longer sustain its foreign adventures.
It appears that Ruben Amaro, Jr. is no student of history.
The Phillies' general manager, he of the big splash variety, continues to send his warships to sea while apparently oblivious to the dilapidated state of the franchise back home. An aging squad with depreciating assets, they are no longer the division-winning Phillies of '07-'11. HMS Werth, Victorino, Pence, Lidge and Ibanez are gone and HMS Rollins, Utley, Polanco and Howard are taking on water fast. But for three of baseball's best starting pitchers and incompetent competition in Miami, this is a last place team.
And now, Amaro has spent $6 million and a pair of farmhands -- one of whom is considered a real prospect -- to fill third base with a rusting Michael Young. In a sense, Young is a real Phillie: a former star who has burned up most of his gas. At 36 last season he appropriately saw most of his time at DH and 1B and for the first time battled injuries and ineffectiveness at the plate. His last 100 games or so at third base have not been pretty even when he could hit.
While Texas dances a little jig that they unloaded Young and got something in return, even if they have to eat $10 million, the Phils can expect pretty much replacement level results at the hot corner. For that, they could have signed Eric Chavez for a nice fruit salad and platooned him with Kevin Frandsen, who hit .338 in 195 at bats last season and is arbitration eligible for the first time.
Michael Young is a talented hitter who might hit .300 again and provide a win or two in Philadelphia, though at his age that's no longer the way to bet. But to what purpose? The Phils need to regroup, not reload with empty uniforms. Amaro seemed to understand that when he flipped Victorino and Pence last season for prospects.
This is a pretty minor deal that likely won't alter Philadelphia's prospects much in '13. But if it's representative of Amaro's mindset going into the season, God help the poor beleaguered fans of that city. They've already had to endure the Eagles, 76ers and Flyers. At least the Freedoms got a song.
It appears that Ruben Amaro, Jr. is no student of history.
The Phillies' general manager, he of the big splash variety, continues to send his warships to sea while apparently oblivious to the dilapidated state of the franchise back home. An aging squad with depreciating assets, they are no longer the division-winning Phillies of '07-'11. HMS Werth, Victorino, Pence, Lidge and Ibanez are gone and HMS Rollins, Utley, Polanco and Howard are taking on water fast. But for three of baseball's best starting pitchers and incompetent competition in Miami, this is a last place team.
And now, Amaro has spent $6 million and a pair of farmhands -- one of whom is considered a real prospect -- to fill third base with a rusting Michael Young. In a sense, Young is a real Phillie: a former star who has burned up most of his gas. At 36 last season he appropriately saw most of his time at DH and 1B and for the first time battled injuries and ineffectiveness at the plate. His last 100 games or so at third base have not been pretty even when he could hit.
While Texas dances a little jig that they unloaded Young and got something in return, even if they have to eat $10 million, the Phils can expect pretty much replacement level results at the hot corner. For that, they could have signed Eric Chavez for a nice fruit salad and platooned him with Kevin Frandsen, who hit .338 in 195 at bats last season and is arbitration eligible for the first time.
Michael Young is a talented hitter who might hit .300 again and provide a win or two in Philadelphia, though at his age that's no longer the way to bet. But to what purpose? The Phils need to regroup, not reload with empty uniforms. Amaro seemed to understand that when he flipped Victorino and Pence last season for prospects.
This is a pretty minor deal that likely won't alter Philadelphia's prospects much in '13. But if it's representative of Amaro's mindset going into the season, God help the poor beleaguered fans of that city. They've already had to endure the Eagles, 76ers and Flyers. At least the Freedoms got a song.
31 July 2012
Never Alone In First Place With A Schizophrenic
Some teams, like the Astros and Cubs, are total estate sales. Because their gaze overlooks the horizon to a point in time two years hence or further out, everything of value must go. Expensive 30-something veterans can make their team irrelevantly better today, but are unlikely to contribute to the next pennant winner.
Exchanging these luxury items for the coin of the realm -- future stars who may form the foundation of a contender -- makes sense. And that is exactly the course those two franchises have taken.
Some teams, like the Rangers and Yankees, are smooth sailing yachts seeking to batten down the remaining hatches. The present value of a win or two added by the acquisition of an accomplished baller is far greater than the future value of a prospect. They sensibly go all in to acquire the best players they can get.
That's why the Rangers swapped a pair of -- presumably promising -- minor leaguers for the Cubs' Ryan Dempster. It's why the Angels-Brewers deal sending Zack Greinke to L.A. for no one you've heard of is sensible on both sides. (I'm assuming the rebuilders got something of value. My knowledge of minor leaguers is encyclopaedic in the sense that there is no longer such thing as an encyclopaedia.)
Then there are teams that are rebuilding, but only for this year. The Marlins, as I've mentioned before, should be in that position. They'd assembled a club of stars that dimmed in 2012, but who can redeem themselves in 2013. Teams like that might relinquish pending free agents, but should expect to reload for next season.
Which is what makes recent moves by the Phillies so confounding. They seem to be lurching back and forth between contender and rebuilder like a drunken sailor. One day they sign away Cole Hamels' free agency with $144 million and the next they deal two important pieces -- outfielders Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.
It's not just that the Phillies should reload for 2013; they have no choice. Ruben Amaro Jr. has nearly an entire payroll bound up over multiple years in aging stars -- Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, all of whom have under-performed in one way or another this season, leading to a total team face-plant. The only hope the Phils have in the short term is to add judiciously for next year and make a run at a flag.
Signing Hamels confirmed that approach. Then today. Victorino and Pence are two of the younger, higher performing and cost-controlled stars. At least with Victorino, 31, Amaro dealt a pending free agent whom he perhaps knew couldn't be re-signed at a price he considered reasonable. But the 29-year-old Pence has another year of arbitration and several more of peak value in front of him. He's also provided the second-best stick on the team this year (behind catcher Carlos Ruiz) with a .281 True Average. The only Major Leaguer coming back in those deals is Nate Schierholz, a lifetime .270/.319/.421 fifth outfielder in six partial seasons.
The result is that nothing has changed for 2012 in Philadelphia, but there'll be less Phightin' in them in 2013. And it leaves them betwixt and between, neither contender nor rebuilder, seemingly schizophrenic about their place in the baseball universe. It could be a long, slow, painful decline for Brotherly Lovers.
26 March 2011
Caveat Phillies
Nothing, it seems, is certain but death, taxes and the Phillies winning the 2011 NL East. The four-time defending NL East champs sport an historic starting rotation and some of the best hitters in the senior circuit. They'll spend the summer feasting on the Nationals, Marlins and Mets and the fall battling baseball's royalty in seven-game bursts.
Except, as the great philosopher Quick Draw McGraw often noted, "now just hold on thar one cotton-pickin' minute, Baba Looey!" The 2012 Phils are threatening to drastically under-perform on one side of the ball, leaving the ascendant Braves ample opportunity to end the run in the city of sibling affection.
You doubt that Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels will perform anything less than spectacularly? Neither do I, though there's nowhere to go but down with this corps, relative to expectations. It truly is a world class quartet, and if anything goes awry, like someone's ulnar collateral ligament, Joe Blanton is a doozy of a back-up plan.
On the other hand, if Southeastern PA isn't concerned about the lineup, it isn't paying attention. With names like Howard, Utley, Rollins and Victorino, it's easy to become complacent about the Phillies' hitting woes. Take a closer look though, and you'll see how this offense could stink like New Jersey without much going terribly wrong.
First, the team's getting old, with an average age this year over 32. Utley and Rollins missed a chunk of 2010 and Utley is hobbling again even before he's broken a sweat. He is the straw that stirs the drink for the Phillies; hitting for power and average and delivering standout defense at a position where a replacement can be counted on for little more than an occasional bloop single. By far the team's best player (he was the second most productive hitter last year despite missing 150 plate appearances), Utley's health is a critical concern.
Rollins, not so much. The mis-cast MVP in 2007, Rollins has steadily declined since, losing 200 points of OPS while battling age and injuries. The team leader and spark plug may not have much spark left, and he also plays a position thin in quality replacements.
The third Musketeer is Ryan Howard, who was either slowed by injuries last year or has, at age 31 and 235 pounds, begun his slow descent. Howard slugged 31 home runs, which is ordinarily tremendous, except when that is your signature skill, and you'd been averaging 50-a-year over the past five seasons. If he repeats that, or declines further, the Phillies are going to be a a nuclear plant short in the power department.
Beyond them the news is more worrisome. Dominic Brown has shown no signs that he can replace any part of Jason Werth's game in right field and Carlos Ruiz's chances of repeating his anomalous .302/.400/.447 season behind the plate are somewhere between slim and none, with the mean listing heavily towards none. Raul Ibanez's utility as a 39-year-old might be in a platoon with John Mayberry, Jr. and/or Ben Francisco. The latter can pop a longball episodically and the former can swipe a base if someone gets on for him, but that's not much production from a corner outfield position.
Placido Polanco at third and the Flyin' Hawaiian in center are both good and reliable players with meaty defensive chops, though if Polanco fails to hit .290 his offensive contribution evaporates. In any case, both are complementary parts, not stars. A Phillie squad left to rely on those two is swimming in shark-infested waters. And with a lineup that still lists portside, the Phils remain vulnerable to southpaws.
Of course, the starters could bail out the offense and Ruben Amaro could flip Joe Blanton for a shiny bauble to offset the woes of Utley or Rollins or whoever. But they may be busy bailing out the bullpen, which could run the gamut from shutdown to incendiary to...Bastardo.
You put it all together and the Phils look less like locks than lox, and there's a team in Atlanta just itching to buy the cream cheese (not Philadelphia brand.) I've still got the ponies as favorites -- that rotation demands it -- but Charlie Manual will earn the hosannas this season if he can keep the offense on track and the team atop the standings...again.
b
First, the team's getting old, with an average age this year over 32. Utley and Rollins missed a chunk of 2010 and Utley is hobbling again even before he's broken a sweat. He is the straw that stirs the drink for the Phillies; hitting for power and average and delivering standout defense at a position where a replacement can be counted on for little more than an occasional bloop single. By far the team's best player (he was the second most productive hitter last year despite missing 150 plate appearances), Utley's health is a critical concern.
Rollins, not so much. The mis-cast MVP in 2007, Rollins has steadily declined since, losing 200 points of OPS while battling age and injuries. The team leader and spark plug may not have much spark left, and he also plays a position thin in quality replacements.
The third Musketeer is Ryan Howard, who was either slowed by injuries last year or has, at age 31 and 235 pounds, begun his slow descent. Howard slugged 31 home runs, which is ordinarily tremendous, except when that is your signature skill, and you'd been averaging 50-a-year over the past five seasons. If he repeats that, or declines further, the Phillies are going to be a a nuclear plant short in the power department.
Beyond them the news is more worrisome. Dominic Brown has shown no signs that he can replace any part of Jason Werth's game in right field and Carlos Ruiz's chances of repeating his anomalous .302/.400/.447 season behind the plate are somewhere between slim and none, with the mean listing heavily towards none. Raul Ibanez's utility as a 39-year-old might be in a platoon with John Mayberry, Jr. and/or Ben Francisco. The latter can pop a longball episodically and the former can swipe a base if someone gets on for him, but that's not much production from a corner outfield position.
Placido Polanco at third and the Flyin' Hawaiian in center are both good and reliable players with meaty defensive chops, though if Polanco fails to hit .290 his offensive contribution evaporates. In any case, both are complementary parts, not stars. A Phillie squad left to rely on those two is swimming in shark-infested waters. And with a lineup that still lists portside, the Phils remain vulnerable to southpaws.
Of course, the starters could bail out the offense and Ruben Amaro could flip Joe Blanton for a shiny bauble to offset the woes of Utley or Rollins or whoever. But they may be busy bailing out the bullpen, which could run the gamut from shutdown to incendiary to...Bastardo.
You put it all together and the Phils look less like locks than lox, and there's a team in Atlanta just itching to buy the cream cheese (not Philadelphia brand.) I've still got the ponies as favorites -- that rotation demands it -- but Charlie Manual will earn the hosannas this season if he can keep the offense on track and the team atop the standings...again.
b
01 October 2010
Payback Could Be A Bitch
If you're the Philadelphia Phillies, you have to be feeling that what went around has come around on the 2010 season. Buffeted by a rash of early- and mid-season injuries that turned them into newts, the horsies got better and now find themselves uniquely positioned to march through the playoffs.
Payback could be a bitch for the other contenders.
Most likely, Philly will square off with Cincinnati in the division series. The Reds have feasted on the dregs of the league for most of their 89 victories. That is not the formula for ousting Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels (H2O). Las Vegas will be falling all over itself to court wagers against the double defending NL champs.
The Giants and Braves must eliminate San Diego before tussling in the first round. Depending on how long it takes, both teams could use up their best starters. Matt Cain, on the hill tonight, is already out for Game One. The Braves' Jair Jurrjens is hobbled and questionable for the playoffs. Tim Hudson is scheduled to go Sunday if the Braves still need to win, which would push his first start to Game 3.
Anything can happen in a five-game series, of course, but it's easy to imagine Rollins, Utley, Howard and Werth plowing through the Redleg pitching and giving the rotation time to reset against the Giants or Braves. With the home field advantage and a late-season pedigree, Philly would be prohibitive favorites against whichever side wins the other series. The Giants have the mound horses to match, but if they've chewed through them in the NLDS, they might not be quite the asset. Citizens Bank is a homer total's best friend, but San Fran doesn't have the punch to take advantage.
As for the Braves, they are largely a Turner Field phenomenon, and that doesn't play well in Philly, particularly on autumn nights. The Phils made up eight games on Atlanta in September for a reason. Rolling out H2O for six of seven games exaggerates the advantage and ameliorates Philly's bullpen weakness.
None of that accounts for injuries, anomalies, rain delays/postponements and simple luck. The race isn't always to the swift nor the battle to the strong. But that's the way to bet.
b
27 April 2010
Antiques Roadshow In Philadelphia
My wife loves watching Antiques Roadshow, a TV program whose star is stuff. Experts estimate the value of goods carted in by ordinary people, often in the six figure range. The items selected for the small screen are, of course, mostly the outliers highly prized by collectors and others bulging with disposable income.
Often the priceless items in question have little function and no aesthetic value (to me), but are “worth” stacks of large denominations to someone. Their “value” is determined by whatever someone will pay for them.
At the risk of comparing Ryan Howard to a Qing Dynasty vase, and the Philadelphia Phillies to a Saudi prince, the same dynamics seem to be in place in the case of yesterday’s five-year, $125 million contract extension. Already working under a deal that will pay him $19 this year and $20 million next year, Howard’s services at first base have been secured until he’s 37 years old.
Is this a good deal? In one sense, of course. The Phillies will retain one of their stars through his productive playing days. There isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t jump at the chance to write a name into their everyday lineup that could reliably deliver 40 dingers and 130 RBI.
In a market sense, no. Ryan Howard, affable though he is, is a one-dimensional star who can’t hit southpaws, gets around the bases like a Yugo, flashes iron in the field and is on course to join the Mo Vaughn Aging Club when he hits his mid-30s. Beasts of his magnitude are often one one-hundredth of a second of reaction time away from DHing for an NL club. By 2015, the Phils are likely to be paying ARod money for David Ortiz, circa 2010. Is there a GM so utterly unhinged as to offer Howard vast riches for five years starting at age 32, when he reaches free agency?
The answer is: yes, there is one. Ruben Amaro, GM of the Phils, and not because he’s suddenly contracted drunken sailor syndrome. Howard has value to Philly beyond his market prospects because he’s part of a core of players who’ve catapulted the club to the championship series two years running and still have an open window of opportunity. Howard’s a Philly icon, a known-quantity, a clubhouse-energizer and a high-character franchise enhancer. Keeping him might be the difference between the World Series and the playoffs, or between the playoffs and a quiet October of leaf-peeping in Vermont
Moreover, with a newish ballpark and two pennants flying, the Phils have the cash to ink deals with the rest of the core. This is not the Oakland
Also worth noting is that human beings are not roulette wheels whose odds of producing desired outcomes are known and unchangeable. Howard improved his conditioning and his defense last year and demonstrated that despite the hale-fellow demeanor, he’s prepared to work for greatness. He’s much more agile afield now, indicating to the Phils that he’s a better bet than some of his comparables.
So the Phillies may have spent too far into the future for success in the next three or four years, but if you’re a fan, you’re reaching for a malt beverage. Just hope the league doesn’t start loading up lefties against your lineup.
b
29 October 2009
Time for the Mercy Rule?
So has Rudy Giuliani thrown himself off a bridge yet? Anybody check old man Steinbrenner's pulse recently? Because in case you haven't heard, the Yankees are now doomed like the Gosselin kids. People who picked Yankees in five, as I did, are now switching to Phillies in three.
New York fell in Game One. In the Bronx. So all is lost. Just as it was against the Braves in '96, when they were the underdogs and they came up on the short end in the first two games at home.
Okay, maybe last night was a solitary game, but the trend lines don't look good. After all, over their last three contests, the Yankees are playing .333 ball -- worst in the Majors. ARod's made four consecutive outs. If he keeps that up, he'll go 0-28 in a seven-game series.
And tonight it's AJ Burnett against Pedro Martinez. Had NY won Game One, the analysis of Game Two would look like this: Pedro is old. He's not the same pitcher he was when Britney Spears was a virgin. Burnett has electric stuff. Then Pettitte and Sabathia and lights out.
In the shadow of one defeat, here's the conventional wisdom: Pedro has found new life. Burnett is inconsistent. He's never been a big game pitcher. Philadelphia has wrested away home field advantage.
Even people with severe bi-polar disorder don't skip from euphoria to depression every day. It's got to make you dizzy.
Far be it for me to break up a good dose of mental illness, but might I mention that the Phillies won because a single pitcher threw a great game, and he'll be starting only once more in the Series?
Haha, silly logical guy! That doesn't fill up a three-hour radio show! You don't need a Baseball Analyst to tell you that it's just one game. Baseball Analysts make their money revealing things that have no basis in fact, and so can't be disproved. Things like, ARod is tightening up. (Apparently Kate Hudson's spell has worn off.) Things like, you'd rather have Ryan Howard (batting average this year vs. lefties: .204) than Mark Teixeira at first base in the playoffs because Tex lacks post-season experience. (This nugget came from Rob Dibble, a veritable font of non-sequiturs.)
I can't wait until tomorrow's analysis if the Yankees win Game Two.
b
New York fell in Game One. In the Bronx. So all is lost. Just as it was against the Braves in '96, when they were the underdogs and they came up on the short end in the first two games at home.
Okay, maybe last night was a solitary game, but the trend lines don't look good. After all, over their last three contests, the Yankees are playing .333 ball -- worst in the Majors. ARod's made four consecutive outs. If he keeps that up, he'll go 0-28 in a seven-game series.
And tonight it's AJ Burnett against Pedro Martinez. Had NY won Game One, the analysis of Game Two would look like this: Pedro is old. He's not the same pitcher he was when Britney Spears was a virgin. Burnett has electric stuff. Then Pettitte and Sabathia and lights out.
In the shadow of one defeat, here's the conventional wisdom: Pedro has found new life. Burnett is inconsistent. He's never been a big game pitcher. Philadelphia has wrested away home field advantage.
Even people with severe bi-polar disorder don't skip from euphoria to depression every day. It's got to make you dizzy.
Far be it for me to break up a good dose of mental illness, but might I mention that the Phillies won because a single pitcher threw a great game, and he'll be starting only once more in the Series?
Haha, silly logical guy! That doesn't fill up a three-hour radio show! You don't need a Baseball Analyst to tell you that it's just one game. Baseball Analysts make their money revealing things that have no basis in fact, and so can't be disproved. Things like, ARod is tightening up. (Apparently Kate Hudson's spell has worn off.) Things like, you'd rather have Ryan Howard (batting average this year vs. lefties: .204) than Mark Teixeira at first base in the playoffs because Tex lacks post-season experience. (This nugget came from Rob Dibble, a veritable font of non-sequiturs.)
I can't wait until tomorrow's analysis if the Yankees win Game Two.
b
13 October 2009
Now THAT Is Baseball Analysis
For eight minutes and 19 seconds this afternoon, I listened to former Major Leaguer Eric Karros explain the baseball playoffs.
On how the Angels could beat the Yankees: "The Angels are not in awe of the Yankees. No one else can say that."
On why the Yankees might win it all: "The Yankees are more real this year. More relaxed. Expectations are the one thing that will slow them down. There's something to be said for that."
On how the Dodgers might overcome their weak finish to the season and make the World Series: "The Dodgers are like the infantry: they keep coming. Each guy plays like he's the 25th man. They're grinders, but they're superstars."
You see, it's this kind of insight that makes world class athletes the best analysts. They know more about the game than other people because they played it.
I'm not an athlete. That's why I have less informed ideas about these questions.
On how the Angels might beat the Yankees: Score more runs than NY. Win four games out of seven. Get good pitching and timely hitting. It'll help if the breaks go the Angels' way. They're more or less equally matched, so the biggest factor will be luck. No one can predict whom that will favor.
On why the Yankees might win it all: Well, they're the best team.
On how the Dodgers might beat the Phillies: Score more runs than Philadelphia. Win four games out of seven. Get good pitching and timely hitting. It'll help if the breaks go L.A.'s way. They're more or less equally matched, so the biggest factor will be luck. No one can predict whom that will favor. Oh, and throw lefties at that lineup. Howard and Utley are death on righthanders.
Look, these series are best-of-seven. Two hot pitchers can win it for you. One bad closer can lose it. The best team has an edge, but the best teams haven't even made the World Series in at least three years. So let's just sit back and enjoy the pennant races and leave the meaningless cliches for highly-compensated former athletes.
b
On how the Angels could beat the Yankees: "The Angels are not in awe of the Yankees. No one else can say that."
On why the Yankees might win it all: "The Yankees are more real this year. More relaxed. Expectations are the one thing that will slow them down. There's something to be said for that."
On how the Dodgers might overcome their weak finish to the season and make the World Series: "The Dodgers are like the infantry: they keep coming. Each guy plays like he's the 25th man. They're grinders, but they're superstars."
You see, it's this kind of insight that makes world class athletes the best analysts. They know more about the game than other people because they played it.
I'm not an athlete. That's why I have less informed ideas about these questions.
On how the Angels might beat the Yankees: Score more runs than NY. Win four games out of seven. Get good pitching and timely hitting. It'll help if the breaks go the Angels' way. They're more or less equally matched, so the biggest factor will be luck. No one can predict whom that will favor.
On why the Yankees might win it all: Well, they're the best team.
On how the Dodgers might beat the Phillies: Score more runs than Philadelphia. Win four games out of seven. Get good pitching and timely hitting. It'll help if the breaks go L.A.'s way. They're more or less equally matched, so the biggest factor will be luck. No one can predict whom that will favor. Oh, and throw lefties at that lineup. Howard and Utley are death on righthanders.
Look, these series are best-of-seven. Two hot pitchers can win it for you. One bad closer can lose it. The best team has an edge, but the best teams haven't even made the World Series in at least three years. So let's just sit back and enjoy the pennant races and leave the meaningless cliches for highly-compensated former athletes.
b
02 July 2009
An Inconvenient Truth
What would you do with this player?
He brings a tin glove to a low-leverage defensive position. He's hitting .257/.329/.537 this year, or perhaps that was last year (.251 .339 .543). In other words, he has great power but doesn't get safely to the first three bases much.
His top speed is somewhere around Giambi, maybe Thome, and he fans more than a windmill. A left-handed swinger, he eats up righties, but southpaws own him by 54 points of OBP and 104 points of SLG. And all that is accomplished in a home park that smiles on all forms of offense while his teammates fill the bases for him.
Forgive me for suggesting this, but the Phillies ought to consider platooning Ryan Howard.
Howard is still a good hitter and his top-rung power alters the way pitchers approach the lineup. He walks a lot and is on pace to smack 40 homers for the fourth straight time...almost entirely against right-handed pitching.
Against southpaws he makes outs more than 70% of the time. That's Raid for rallies -- kills them dead. Almost certainly the Phils can find someone -- particularly playing in Citizens Bank Park -- who can spot Howard against left-handers and poke an occasional hit or coax a walk episodically. It would make the team a win or two better in a division in which that's likely to be the difference between playing for a flag or finding a fishing hole in October.
Here's the really bad news Phillies fans: the evidence suggests that Howard's on the Mo Vaughn plan, having already peaked at age 26-27. His good looks, ready smile and hale-fellow demeanor will serve him well in his second career, but they won't keep pitchers from walking Chase Utley and busting Howard high and hard if he continues to tail off. Charlie Manuel can delay that if he spells Howard against his lefty-throwing nemeses.
b
He brings a tin glove to a low-leverage defensive position. He's hitting .257/.329/.537 this year, or perhaps that was last year (.251 .339 .543). In other words, he has great power but doesn't get safely to the first three bases much.
His top speed is somewhere around Giambi, maybe Thome, and he fans more than a windmill. A left-handed swinger, he eats up righties, but southpaws own him by 54 points of OBP and 104 points of SLG. And all that is accomplished in a home park that smiles on all forms of offense while his teammates fill the bases for him.
Forgive me for suggesting this, but the Phillies ought to consider platooning Ryan Howard.
Howard is still a good hitter and his top-rung power alters the way pitchers approach the lineup. He walks a lot and is on pace to smack 40 homers for the fourth straight time...almost entirely against right-handed pitching.
Against southpaws he makes outs more than 70% of the time. That's Raid for rallies -- kills them dead. Almost certainly the Phils can find someone -- particularly playing in Citizens Bank Park -- who can spot Howard against left-handers and poke an occasional hit or coax a walk episodically. It would make the team a win or two better in a division in which that's likely to be the difference between playing for a flag or finding a fishing hole in October.
Here's the really bad news Phillies fans: the evidence suggests that Howard's on the Mo Vaughn plan, having already peaked at age 26-27. His good looks, ready smile and hale-fellow demeanor will serve him well in his second career, but they won't keep pitchers from walking Chase Utley and busting Howard high and hard if he continues to tail off. Charlie Manuel can delay that if he spells Howard against his lefty-throwing nemeses.
b
05 June 2009
An Ode to Raul
In the '09 off-season, the Phillies let Pat Burrell walk and signed Raul Ibanez to replace him for more money than Burrell got in Tampa. In this space and elsewhere, Phily management was excoriated for its less-for-more strategy. Ibanez is four years older, gets on base less and hits for less power. Dumb.
Until this year. Raul the Jewel is playing like his hair's on fire, which, given his coif, would mean his head was ablaze. He's batting .335 and smacking the ball around and out of Citizens Bank Park. He's "on pace" to hit 60 home runs and top his best previous slugging percentage by 150 points. The rejuvenation even extends to the field, where he seems to be handling left field with grace.
Burrell on the other hand, has battled injuries and compiled all of five extra base hits in more than 100 at bats. He's stunk worse than my analysis.
What's going on here? A few things seem obvious. Ibanez was hitting in a cavern in Seattle, surrounded by Ichiro and the seven dwarves. Put him in Philadelphia's Little League park, in the middle of Murderer's Row, in the Year of Pitching Dangerously, and you have a big ol' uptick in power.
Ibanez was always a good hitter, but you don't expect his career year to be his 14th Major League campaign. There's plenty of season left for him to slump back to expectations, but if he doesn't, we'll know some of the externalities affecting his performance. In the meantime Philly fans, enjoy what you've got. Sometimes even dumb decisions work out well; it's just not the way to bet.
b
Until this year. Raul the Jewel is playing like his hair's on fire, which, given his coif, would mean his head was ablaze. He's batting .335 and smacking the ball around and out of Citizens Bank Park. He's "on pace" to hit 60 home runs and top his best previous slugging percentage by 150 points. The rejuvenation even extends to the field, where he seems to be handling left field with grace.
Burrell on the other hand, has battled injuries and compiled all of five extra base hits in more than 100 at bats. He's stunk worse than my analysis.
What's going on here? A few things seem obvious. Ibanez was hitting in a cavern in Seattle, surrounded by Ichiro and the seven dwarves. Put him in Philadelphia's Little League park, in the middle of Murderer's Row, in the Year of Pitching Dangerously, and you have a big ol' uptick in power.
Ibanez was always a good hitter, but you don't expect his career year to be his 14th Major League campaign. There's plenty of season left for him to slump back to expectations, but if he doesn't, we'll know some of the externalities affecting his performance. In the meantime Philly fans, enjoy what you've got. Sometimes even dumb decisions work out well; it's just not the way to bet.
b
05 October 2008
Sometimes the Bear Eats You
Just a quick note about the Cubs-Dodgers fiasco (for Chicagoans, anyway). The playoffs marked the fifth time this season that the Cubs lost three games in a row. It happens.
Also, a note about the Manny Ramirez pickup. According to Baseball Prospectus, Manny's performance post-trade deadline was among the best all time and added five wins to L.A.'s win total compared to a replacement-level outfielder. Of course, Manny was traded for Jason Bay, who is significantly better than a replacement-level outfielder, but even then, Manny added about three wins over only two months of the season.
Throw in, unscientifically, another half-win for the ancillary effect his acquisition had on the rest of the lineup and Ramirez was the difference for the Dodgers between facing the Phillies for the pennant and watching Arizona take on Chicago from their couches.
It's also worth noting, if it's any consolation to Cubs fans, that the best team in the NL did not lose to the playoffs' worst. With Manny, the Dodgers won 33 of 56 games, a 95-win clip. Add to that the returns of Nomar Garciaparra and team MVP Rafael Furcal, and this is no patsy. It's anybody's NLCS.
Also, a note about the Manny Ramirez pickup. According to Baseball Prospectus, Manny's performance post-trade deadline was among the best all time and added five wins to L.A.'s win total compared to a replacement-level outfielder. Of course, Manny was traded for Jason Bay, who is significantly better than a replacement-level outfielder, but even then, Manny added about three wins over only two months of the season.
Throw in, unscientifically, another half-win for the ancillary effect his acquisition had on the rest of the lineup and Ramirez was the difference for the Dodgers between facing the Phillies for the pennant and watching Arizona take on Chicago from their couches.
It's also worth noting, if it's any consolation to Cubs fans, that the best team in the NL did not lose to the playoffs' worst. With Manny, the Dodgers won 33 of 56 games, a 95-win clip. Add to that the returns of Nomar Garciaparra and team MVP Rafael Furcal, and this is no patsy. It's anybody's NLCS.
28 August 2008
Capricious Moe
So your friend, Moe, is sitting in your team's dugout, quietly minding his own business. You know he's there, because he's always there when your team races out to a 7-0 lead over its archrival in a late August contest.
But suddenly, Moe bolts across the field to the first base dugout and the seemingly-vanquished foe piles up seven unanswered runs in the last five innings. Then, with Moe clearly on their side, they subdue your team in several key situations and scratch across the winning tally in the 13th inning.
"Woe is you!" everyone cries, because Moe has clearly switched allegiances and will accompany the Philistines the rest of the way, as he did the previous year. This becomes readily apparent when your homies fall behind the next evening by a run as your ace heads for the showers.
But wait, wasn't that Moe sprinting back to the northpaw side of the field? By golly, it was, sparking a comeback that leads to victory. Thank goodness we had Moe on our side!
Wait a second, says the annoying contrarian blogger type. What good is Moe if he's going to be so fickle and unpredictable? You'd be just as well off with a friend like Constance. Why are you so excited to see Moe when he's almost certain not to stick around. He's your friend until...he's not.
Come to think of it, it's not like you're even ever aware of his presence except in retrospect, based on the shadow he seems to cast. Could it be that Moe isn't even there? Could these advantage swings simply be the natural ebb and flow of athletic competition?
This notion is painful, I understand. All these years, everyone who loves baseball (and other sports too) had waxed poetic about Moe's myriad accomplishments, hale-fellow personality and abundant charisma. Now some second-rate flak comes along and takes a club to your Moe pinata. You're suffering from some serious cognitive dissonance.
But here's the thing about the facts: they don't give a flying patootski about your feelings. And the fact is, Moe is a figment of everyone's imagination, as David Murphy made evident last night.
But suddenly, Moe bolts across the field to the first base dugout and the seemingly-vanquished foe piles up seven unanswered runs in the last five innings. Then, with Moe clearly on their side, they subdue your team in several key situations and scratch across the winning tally in the 13th inning.
"Woe is you!" everyone cries, because Moe has clearly switched allegiances and will accompany the Philistines the rest of the way, as he did the previous year. This becomes readily apparent when your homies fall behind the next evening by a run as your ace heads for the showers.
But wait, wasn't that Moe sprinting back to the northpaw side of the field? By golly, it was, sparking a comeback that leads to victory. Thank goodness we had Moe on our side!
Wait a second, says the annoying contrarian blogger type. What good is Moe if he's going to be so fickle and unpredictable? You'd be just as well off with a friend like Constance. Why are you so excited to see Moe when he's almost certain not to stick around. He's your friend until...he's not.
Come to think of it, it's not like you're even ever aware of his presence except in retrospect, based on the shadow he seems to cast. Could it be that Moe isn't even there? Could these advantage swings simply be the natural ebb and flow of athletic competition?
This notion is painful, I understand. All these years, everyone who loves baseball (and other sports too) had waxed poetic about Moe's myriad accomplishments, hale-fellow personality and abundant charisma. Now some second-rate flak comes along and takes a club to your Moe pinata. You're suffering from some serious cognitive dissonance.
But here's the thing about the facts: they don't give a flying patootski about your feelings. And the fact is, Moe is a figment of everyone's imagination, as David Murphy made evident last night.
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