Of Ryne and Reason

Probably the most misunderstood concept among homo sapiens is the difference between correlation and causation. Correlation is when you sit at home and yell "swing!" just before Chris Davis cranks up and smashes a home run. Causation is when Davis extends his arms and blasts one out.

The Phillies yesterday signed interim-manager Ryne Sandberg to a three-year contract. GM Ruben Amaro had been auditioning the Hall of Fame keystoner over the last 34 games and liked what he saw.

The speculation immediately fell upon the Phillies' record, which had rebounded to 18-16 under Sandberg after dropping a string of games and any pretense of a playoff challenge in Charlie Manuel's final days as manager.

No doubt Amaro cared about how the team responded to Sandberg, both in the clubhouse and on the field. If they folded up the tent upon his arrival, Amaro might have balked at a new contract. But, contrary to accepted wisdom that they're generally ungrateful prima donnas, most Major League baseball players have sufficient pride and professionalism to work hard through Game 162.

There are myriad reasons why teams slump and rebound; certainly an injection of new blood at the top might have had something to do with that. A manager creates a culture in the clubhouse and that can infect everything the team does. It's unlikely he can have that kind of impact, though, in the first, say, 20 games, which means most of the Phils' record under Sandberg's skippering is just happenstance. (They won nine of the new commander's 14 games but have gone 9-11 since.) Besides, if novelty helped boost the club, they won't ever derive that benefit again as long as Sandberg is manager.

Sandberg will be tested for real next when this reality strikes: the chickens of two World Series appearances are coming home to roost. Philadelphia has an expensive, aging and largely ineffective roster and it's only going to get worse. Besides Dominic Brown and Cole Hamels, not a single key Phillie player is on the bright side of 33. Not Ryan Howard or Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins or Carlos Ruiz or Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. That number will be 34 next year and all but Halladay and Ruiz are locked in for 2014. (The remains of Roy Halladay will be spit-roasted somewhere else, probably on the retirement list. The still-potent Ruiz will be in demand as a free agent.)

There are certainly some assets besides that crew: Darren "Babe" Ruf has mighty power. The team likes Kevin Franzen, who could supplant Howard at first if he shows he can hit. Ben Revere batted.305 and owned centerfield, but absent any walks (OBP merely .338), his value is largely dependent on keeping the batting average up. A third starter behind Lee and Hamels would give them a strong rotation in front of Jonathan Pappelbon, who is nearly the stud as he thinks he is.

Are you impressed? Neither is Washington or Atlanta, or for that matter the Mets. And even a Hall of Famer in the dugout isn't going to change that.

Phillies Get Young, Old

In the history of humankind, every empire has dissolved for the same reason: it failed to recognize that its shrinking economy could no longer sustain its foreign adventures.

It appears that Ruben Amaro, Jr. is no student of history.  

The Phillies' general manager, he of the big splash variety, continues to send his warships to sea while apparently oblivious to the dilapidated state of the franchise back home. An aging squad with depreciating assets, they are no longer the division-winning Phillies of '07-'11. HMS Werth, Victorino, Pence, Lidge and Ibanez are gone and HMS Rollins, Utley, Polanco and Howard are taking on water fast. But for three of baseball's best starting pitchers and incompetent competition in Miami, this is a last place team.

And now, Amaro has spent $6 million and a pair of farmhands -- one of whom is considered a real prospect -- to fill third base with a rusting Michael Young. In a sense, Young is a real Phillie: a former star who has burned up most of his gas. At 36 last season he appropriately saw most of his time at DH and 1B and for the first time battled injuries and ineffectiveness at the plate. His last 100 games or so at third base have not been pretty even when he could hit.

While Texas dances a little jig that they unloaded Young and got something in return, even if they have to eat $10 million, the Phils can expect pretty much replacement level results at the hot corner. For that, they could have signed Eric Chavez for a nice fruit salad and platooned him with Kevin Frandsen, who hit .338 in 195 at bats last season and is arbitration eligible for the first time.

Michael Young is a talented hitter who might hit .300 again and provide a win or two in Philadelphia, though at his age that's no longer the way to bet. But to what purpose? The Phils need to regroup, not reload with empty uniforms. Amaro seemed to understand that when he flipped Victorino and Pence last season for prospects.

This is a pretty minor deal that likely won't alter Philadelphia's prospects much in '13. But if it's representative of Amaro's mindset going into the season, God help the poor beleaguered fans of that city. They've already had to endure the Eagles, 76ers and Flyers. At least the Freedoms got a song.