You don't need a University of Chicago economics degree to understand that when a 41-year-old outfielder logs this line in a lost season's first half:
.267/.314/.578 , 24 HR (43% above average)
...you trade him away for young talent so fast tornadoes form.
Instead, the Seattle Mariners held on to Raul Ibanez through their Quixotic quest for that magic 75-win season and he has rewarded their fifth-place selves with this since:
.205/.299/.286, 1 HR (33% below average)
At which point his value is applesauce. This is what GM Jack Zduriencik calls "rebuilding."
Showing posts with label Raul Ibanez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Raul Ibanez. Show all posts
02 September 2013
26 December 2012
The Outs Just Keep On Coming!
Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik has decided to have a go at comedy. Check out this hysterical routine:
Having inked to a contract one old shoe -- Jason Bay -- the Mariners have signed his lefty-swinging counterpart -- Raul Ibanez, to a one-year, $2.75 million deal.
Jay Leno, are you listening? This is killer material!
Hey, it's the Mariners' three million, and they can do anything they want with it, including invest it in becoming a punchline. If that's the plan, they can expect a high return on investment.
The 41-year-old out"fielder" squashed 19 home runs in 425 Yankee plate appearances last season, but that's it. A .308 OBP and defensive skills as robust as his hairline scream "end of career." It appears that Zduriencik plans to platoon Bay and Ibanez for a bilateral chump-athon, when instead he could give Michael Saunders, Franklin Guttierez, Mike Carp and Casper Wells a year's worth of at-bats to determine what they can accomplish.
The talk in the Pacific Northwest is that Ibanez adds missing power to the Mariner lineup. But the M's don't lack power so much as they lack hitting. An Ibanez-Bay platoon could help resolve that. Or it could make all of Seattle go blind.
Zduriencik's recent moves have made his team worse. Someone needs to stop him before the Mariners become the Astros.
Having inked to a contract one old shoe -- Jason Bay -- the Mariners have signed his lefty-swinging counterpart -- Raul Ibanez, to a one-year, $2.75 million deal.
Jay Leno, are you listening? This is killer material!
Hey, it's the Mariners' three million, and they can do anything they want with it, including invest it in becoming a punchline. If that's the plan, they can expect a high return on investment.
The 41-year-old out"fielder" squashed 19 home runs in 425 Yankee plate appearances last season, but that's it. A .308 OBP and defensive skills as robust as his hairline scream "end of career." It appears that Zduriencik plans to platoon Bay and Ibanez for a bilateral chump-athon, when instead he could give Michael Saunders, Franklin Guttierez, Mike Carp and Casper Wells a year's worth of at-bats to determine what they can accomplish.
The talk in the Pacific Northwest is that Ibanez adds missing power to the Mariner lineup. But the M's don't lack power so much as they lack hitting. An Ibanez-Bay platoon could help resolve that. Or it could make all of Seattle go blind.
Zduriencik's recent moves have made his team worse. Someone needs to stop him before the Mariners become the Astros.
16 May 2010
Missing the Bat With Pat
You can crunch the numbers all you like, but personnel decisions involve persons. Statheads need to keep that in mind when asserting their certitudes about the future performance of players in the league. It's something Pat Burrell reminded me of this weekend when he collected his walking papers from the Tampa Bay Rays.
Two years ago, I blasted the Phils for committing a $30 million dowry to 36-year-old Raul Ibanez for three years of declining offensive value and already-addled defense. Philadelphia, I noted, already had an immobile slugger in left field in 31-year-old Burrell, who could have been inked to the two-year, $16 million deal he got from Tampa Bay.
I had my reasons. Ibanez was five years older, had begun slowing down in the field and seemed to stand out in Seattle mostly because he was the only non-Ichiro hitter on the roster. He even lacked Burrell's stick in their contract year; Burrell, .875 OPS to Ibanez, .837. Finally, paying a guy eight figures for his age-39 year was almost certainly folly.
How'd that turn out? Burrell was spectacular in the field for Tampa -- from the DH position. Other than that, the Rays got less support from Burrell than from their jock straps. After setting the bar at ground level last year -- .682 OPS while missing 40 games due to injury -- Burrell began 2010 by crawling beneath it. The notoriously frugal Rays found it useful to cut him even though it meant eating $9 million.
Ibanez? He slugged 34 HR last season, made the All-Star team, posted an .899 OPS, shored up his glove work and helped the Phils repeat as NL champs.
How could I be so wrong?
First, it's worth pointing out that it wasn't quite so cut and dried even by the numbers. Burrell had been up and down for the Phils. The weaker league and hitters' park served as stat inflator during those years. So he was probably worse than he appeared. Ibanez moved in the opposite direction: from a pitcher's park in the tougher league to Citizens Bank Launching Pad. He could reasonably be expected to improve a bit, or given his age, keep his production steady.
Nonetheless, could anyone have predicted Ibanez's breakout and Burrell's breakdown? Well, apparently Philly management knew something about Burrell that led them to jettison him. His attitude, his work ethic, his injury history, his swing, something -- something the stats can't tell you. The Phillies looked at Pat Burrell and said to themselves, "we'd better get someone else in here, even if it costs us." And they were right.
In retrospect, Burrell wasn't the answer, but I'll stick by my assertion that three years of Ibanez isn't either. The Phils could have signed Adam Dunn and his .928 OPS for $16 million without the specter of a graybeard patrolling the outfield. (On the other hand, Dunn has all the defensive prowess of Lucy Van Pelt.) Last year's magic dust has worn off Ibanez; so far this season he's showing none of last year's pop. He's been a below-average hitter and fielder, and isn't likely to improve as he ages.
So let's say the Phils got one superb year, one palatable year and one forgettable year for their $30 million investment. Meanwhile, Pat Burrell delivered less than nothing for Tampa Bay's $16 million. Like choosing between John and Kate. Still, it shows that the numbers don't tell the whole story.
Lesson noted.
b
05 June 2009
An Ode to Raul
In the '09 off-season, the Phillies let Pat Burrell walk and signed Raul Ibanez to replace him for more money than Burrell got in Tampa. In this space and elsewhere, Phily management was excoriated for its less-for-more strategy. Ibanez is four years older, gets on base less and hits for less power. Dumb.
Until this year. Raul the Jewel is playing like his hair's on fire, which, given his coif, would mean his head was ablaze. He's batting .335 and smacking the ball around and out of Citizens Bank Park. He's "on pace" to hit 60 home runs and top his best previous slugging percentage by 150 points. The rejuvenation even extends to the field, where he seems to be handling left field with grace.
Burrell on the other hand, has battled injuries and compiled all of five extra base hits in more than 100 at bats. He's stunk worse than my analysis.
What's going on here? A few things seem obvious. Ibanez was hitting in a cavern in Seattle, surrounded by Ichiro and the seven dwarves. Put him in Philadelphia's Little League park, in the middle of Murderer's Row, in the Year of Pitching Dangerously, and you have a big ol' uptick in power.
Ibanez was always a good hitter, but you don't expect his career year to be his 14th Major League campaign. There's plenty of season left for him to slump back to expectations, but if he doesn't, we'll know some of the externalities affecting his performance. In the meantime Philly fans, enjoy what you've got. Sometimes even dumb decisions work out well; it's just not the way to bet.
b
Until this year. Raul the Jewel is playing like his hair's on fire, which, given his coif, would mean his head was ablaze. He's batting .335 and smacking the ball around and out of Citizens Bank Park. He's "on pace" to hit 60 home runs and top his best previous slugging percentage by 150 points. The rejuvenation even extends to the field, where he seems to be handling left field with grace.
Burrell on the other hand, has battled injuries and compiled all of five extra base hits in more than 100 at bats. He's stunk worse than my analysis.
What's going on here? A few things seem obvious. Ibanez was hitting in a cavern in Seattle, surrounded by Ichiro and the seven dwarves. Put him in Philadelphia's Little League park, in the middle of Murderer's Row, in the Year of Pitching Dangerously, and you have a big ol' uptick in power.
Ibanez was always a good hitter, but you don't expect his career year to be his 14th Major League campaign. There's plenty of season left for him to slump back to expectations, but if he doesn't, we'll know some of the externalities affecting his performance. In the meantime Philly fans, enjoy what you've got. Sometimes even dumb decisions work out well; it's just not the way to bet.
b
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