The Dodgers Are All About the Playoffs

The Dodgers are acting like an NBA team this year, like the Cavs or Warriors or Spurs. In the NBA, the season is long and meaningless and teams have sewn up spots halfway through the schedule. In baseball, it's not so cut and dried a) because the distribution of talent is not nearly as lopsided and b) because making the playoffs is significantly more difficult and fraught with challenges.

Still the Dodgers have won their division and secured a playoff spot each of the last four years, but they've been stymied on the way to the World Series. A big part of that has been the relative ineffectiveness of all-World starter Clayton Kershaw in the post-season. Could he just be gassed by season's end?

It may be that Dodger brass thinks so. This year, with help from the truncated 7-day and 10-day Disabled List, something new is going on with the Chavez Ravine pitching rotation. Combining a quick hook (average start - 87 pitches) with liberal use of the DL, the team is stashing pitchers between starts and employing six starting arms. Of their first 46 games, Dodgers pitchers had 34 times rested more than four days between starts.

This puts more stress on the relief corps, but again, creative use of the DL can help spell relievers while rostering their temporary replacements. There has never been, and doesn't appear to be now, much patrolling by MLB of DL use.

You might think of this as prophylactic employment of the DL. Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda and Alex Wood have had their injury issues, so limiting their usage by shuttling them back and forth is a clever way of protecting their health.

The purpose of this would seem to be keeping arms fresh for a long playoff run, which can last 21 additional games for a team that gets to the World Series. And frankly, that makes sense, because for the Dodgers, just as for the Cavs and Warriors, it's not a successful season unless they get to the championship series.

Now THAT Is Baseball Analysis

For eight minutes and 19 seconds this afternoon, I listened to former Major Leaguer Eric Karros explain the baseball playoffs.

On how the Angels could beat the Yankees: "The Angels are not in awe of the Yankees. No one else can say that."

On why the Yankees might win it all: "The Yankees are more real this year. More relaxed. Expectations are the one thing that will slow them down. There's something to be said for that."

On how the Dodgers might overcome their weak finish to the season and make the World Series: "The Dodgers are like the infantry: they keep coming. Each guy plays like he's the 25th man. They're grinders, but they're superstars."

You see, it's this kind of insight that makes world class athletes the best analysts. They know more about the game than other people because they played it.

I'm not an athlete. That's why I have less informed ideas about these questions.

On how the Angels might beat the Yankees: Score more runs than NY. Win four games out of seven. Get good pitching and timely hitting. It'll help if the breaks go the Angels' way. They're more or less equally matched, so the biggest factor will be luck. No one can predict whom that will favor.

On why the Yankees might win it all: Well, they're the best team.

On how the Dodgers might beat the Phillies: Score more runs than Philadelphia. Win four games out of seven. Get good pitching and timely hitting. It'll help if the breaks go L.A.'s way. They're more or less equally matched, so the biggest factor will be luck. No one can predict whom that will favor. Oh, and throw lefties at that lineup. Howard and Utley are death on righthanders.

Look, these series are best-of-seven. Two hot pitchers can win it for you. One bad closer can lose it. The best team has an edge, but the best teams haven't even made the World Series in at least three years. So let's just sit back and enjoy the pennant races and leave the meaningless cliches for highly-compensated former athletes.
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A Singles-Only Party

What do you make of a team that is without its most potent offensive weapon, yet nonetheless sends six of its eight batters (discounting the pitcher) to the plate with .300+ averages? Pretty powerful, huh?

What do you think of a batting order that boasts a cleanup hitter without a home run, pacing a lineup last in its league in long balls? Pretty weak, huh?

Thing is, it's the same team. It's the Dodgers, who tonight sent Juan Pierre, Rafael Furcal, Orlando Hudson, Russell Martin, Matt Kemp and Mark Loretta to take their cuts before they got to a batter who wasn't a speedy slap hitter. (Okay, I'm stretching it with Kemp, who clearly has some power; still, that's the Gashouse Gang at work there.)

Martin, slugging an emaciated .319, has nevertheless knocked in 20 runs. That tells you they're not only filling the bases up in front of him, they're getting within 180 feet of the plate. Rookie fill-in outfielder Jamie Hoffman, in 13 plate appearances, has seven RBI. (That's like a 300-RBI pace over a full year.) It's death to the opponent by a thousand cuts.

So you've probably deduced that the Dodgers rank second in the NL in runs scored despite playing in the park that put Don Drysdale in the Hall of Fame. Combined with the best pitching in the senior circuit, the Hollywood Nine has rocketed to the league's best record and an 8.5-game cushion over whatever flotsam and jetsam has bubbled up to second place in the NL West.

It's hard to keep up the singles hitting, but the Dodgers don't have to. Manny Ramirez returns to the lineup in a month. At least the East and Central are competitive.

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Dodging A Headache

A sufficient number of baseball observers have scratched their heads publicly over Manny Ramirez's rejection of the Dodgers' two-year, $45 million offer, that I'll refrain from piling on.

Scott Boras has always been able to find a bigger sucker when it seemed his client had already pushed the market far beyond his value, so far be it for me to criticize him and his client for demuring at an offer that overstates his value, in my view.

Manny, now another year older, is not going to hit this year or next anywhere near as well as he did for half a season in L.A. It's just a fact of human physiology that he's more likely to get hurt, experience a decline in his skills and become a serious albatross on defense.

What really intrigues me is why the Dodgers even continue to discuss it with him. It's clear that no other club wants to adopt this particular can of worm larvae. Manny would make most sense on an AL club with dreams of contention and a DH need -- the Angels jump to mind -- and none of them has been reported ringing Boras' cell.

Manny's lack of enthusiasm for Spring Training is well-known. He may very well be stalling as much for a few extra vacation weeks as for a bigger contract. But Boras had better be careful lest some new competition enter the baseball labor market.

With Barry Bonds' trial now delayed past the end of the '09 season, any team willing to take on a migraine who can rake now has another option. Bonds probably can't play 150 games, as Manny can, and his personality issues affect clubhouse relationships, while Manny's only sho9rt-circuit management sleep patterns. But a team balking at paying $50 million over two years for Manny might be willing to drop $2 million for one year of Bonds.

I'm not proposing that the Dodgers head that way. Adding Manny, even at 90% of his average performance, would make them the favorite in the weak NL West. But I think they'd be crazy to add one thin dime to their offer.

Sometimes the Bear Eats You

Just a quick note about the Cubs-Dodgers fiasco (for Chicagoans, anyway). The playoffs marked the fifth time this season that the Cubs lost three games in a row. It happens.

Also, a note about the Manny Ramirez pickup. According to Baseball Prospectus, Manny's performance post-trade deadline was among the best all time and added five wins to L.A.'s win total compared to a replacement-level outfielder. Of course, Manny was traded for Jason Bay, who is significantly better than a replacement-level outfielder, but even then, Manny added about three wins over only two months of the season.

Throw in, unscientifically, another half-win for the ancillary effect his acquisition had on the rest of the lineup and Ramirez was the difference for the Dodgers between facing the Phillies for the pennant and watching Arizona take on Chicago from their couches.

It's also worth noting, if it's any consolation to Cubs fans, that the best team in the NL did not lose to the playoffs' worst. With Manny, the Dodgers won 33 of 56 games, a 95-win clip. Add to that the returns of Nomar Garciaparra and team MVP Rafael Furcal, and this is no patsy. It's anybody's NLCS.

Let Manny Be....Someone Else's Headache

The Dodgers are reportedly sufficiently giddy over their acquisition of Manny Ramirez that they are talking about attempting to sign him after the season ends. In his first 119 at-bats, during which time LA has reoccupied the top of the NL West standings, Manny has clubbed 11 home runs and sports a nifty .403/.500/.748 line. He has patroled left field with gusto and verve. He has also behaved in the clubhouse in a manner approximating adulthood.

The Dodgers would be playing the role of fly in Manny's spider web. Ramirez is playing for that next contract, which will probably require something in the vicinity of four years and $80 million. That next contract is what seems to motivate him to light it up on the field and exercise self-control off it.

Once the season is complete and the t's are crossed on an agreement for 2009-2012, he will find it difficult not to revert to "being Manny." (It worked a lot better for John Malkovch.) Perhaps for a year he will slug like the Hall of Fame talent he is. Perhaps while torturing opposing pitchers he will limit his outfield antics to a tolerable level of complacency and maintain a confounding but ultimately benign air of irresponsibility. But then a couple of things are going to happen that will make Ned Colleti rue the contract offer.

First, Manny will age. He plays next year at age 37. He will slowly fade from all-time great to merely very good with the stick. His full effort will be required just to retain his general level of fielding ineptitude. His joie de vivre on the basepaths will lead to outs rather than joie.

Manny's greatness gone, management will find its patience for his off-field antics suddenly diminished. But with success on the field more elusive, Manny will struggle to continue acting unnaturally normal. Friends, it will get ugly. Imagine the pouting when Joe Torre pinch hits for him or inserts a rookie in the lineup in his sport. A $20 or $40 or $60 million albatross will hover over Chavez Ravine.

If a pennant-ready team can withstand his act and sign him for a year or two without breaking the bank, he might be a worthwhile investment. But for what it will probably take to secure his services, not signing Manny will turn out to be the best off-season move they make. You heard it here first.