The AL Cy Young Conundrum

Remember what an easy call the two MVP races are? Kris Bryant and Mike Trout are far and away the most valuable players in their leagues this year.

But good golly Miss Molly are the Cy Young competitions a quagmire. Depending on how you slice it, one person's ripe fruit is another person's rind. 

Taking a gander at the junior circuit first, there are a bevy of candidates.  

Rick Porcello went 22-4, 3.15 for the Red Sox, with a league-leading 6-1 strikeout-walk rate.  

J.A. Happ, in his season of redemption, earned a 20-4, 3.18 line, though the advanced stats give his Toronto defense a lot of the credit.  

Justin Verlander bounced back to 16-9, 3.04,  and the AL's lowest WHIP and highest pitching WAR. 

The Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka owned a 14-4, 3.07 resume despite a relatively low strikeout rate. 

And Chris Sale, for all the drama of his season in Chicago, pitched to a line of 17-10, 3.34 and completed a league-leading six games.

Verlander's year was stealthy-great. He paced the league in strikeouts and and hurled a healthy 227 frames. The advanced stats say his ERA was partially a figment of defense and ballparks. I award him the bronze medal.

Porcello really shined and would get my second place vote. The advanced stats like him but he's a little light on whiffs, which is the one thing a pitcher can claim nearly total credit for. 

For my money, the best pitcher in the AL was Cleveland's Corey Kluber. At 18-9, 3.14, he didn't lead the league in anything  but was among the best at everything. He anchored the Tribe's killer rotation, pitching a lot innings with an excellent K-BB ratio, a low WHIP and more strikeouts than frames. The advanced stats love him, giving him their highest grades. The playoffs aren't considered for this, but they certainly vindicate this choice.

What's that you say? One of the others is your guy? Go for it. There's no credible argument against any of the pitchers named here.

Just please, don't talk to me about Zach Britton. The guy was a horse out of the Oriole pen, with an 0.54 ERA and 47 saves. He deserves the Rolaids Relief Award, unless Andrew Miller steals it. But the dude pitched a grand total of 67 innings -- one at a time, and that's just a quantum leap easier than throwing six frames each time out. Meausring him against starters is an apples and zebras comparison.

That's not a knock on Britton. Over the last three years, he's thrown 209 innings -- about a full year for a starter. Batters have touched him up for a 1.38 ERA and 0.9 WHIP. In that one year's worth of pitching he earned nine wins against replacement -- roughly MVP level. He's a stud, but so is Mike Trout. And neither one deserves the Cy Young.

A Mad Max Contract for Scherzer

"A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money." --Sen. Everett Dirksen

Three years ago, the best pitcher in baseball -- that is, the pitcher with the best performance over the last three-to-five years -- was Roy Halladay. He's now retired, after his arm, and his ERA, blew up.

Two years ago, the best pitcher in baseball was Justin Verlander, who posted a 4.54 ERA last season, 20% worse than average.

Today, you've probably heard that the Washington Nationals have signed Max Scherzer to a seven year deal worth $210 million. We're enured to the numbers at this point, but $210 million is still a boatload.

Because he's not Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer is certainly not the best pitcher in baseball. He's probably not second. But over the last three years he's dominated opposing batters to the tune of 55-15, 3.24 and 723 strikeouts. Any team would like to have the Max Scherzer of the last three seasons.

The problem is, that doesn't guarantee anything about next year, when Scherzer will be 30. And it hardly provides any guide at all to his performance five years from now, when he'll still have two years remaining on the deal.

In a spectacular study at Baseball Prospectus, Sam Miller and Mike Gianella found that 20 high-priced free agent pitchers who performed similar to Scherzer before age 30 pretty much pooped the bed thereafter. Only about half performed at an above average level the following year, and by year four more than half were either out of baseball or below replacement level.

Maybe Scherzer is like the other half. Small consolation. Even the top 50% stopped being Max Scherzer 2014 and became Kyle Gibson 2014. "Who's Kyle Gibson?" you're asking. Yeah, that's the point. (Answer: A rookie Twins starter who went 13-12, 4.47. He's not making $30 million next season.)

Maybe Scherzer's even better than the good half. Maybe there's something unique about him because he's Max. Maybe he's more like Tom Glavine, the only member of the exalted group who maintained consistently high level performance for even five years. (It's worth noting that Glavine signed the big deal with the Braves, the team that knew him best.) Then the Nats have brought aboard 33 WAR and a first ballot Hall of Famer.

That's awesome, but it's not the way to bet. First ballot Hall of Famers are celebrated because they are rare, even among guys who dominated batters from age 27-29. Instead, the Nationals have placed a quarter-billion dollar chip on 37 hoping against the odds that it will cash in.

Meet the New Boss; Same As the Old Boss

Q. What do you get when you put the worst defense behind the best pitcher?
A. Another Cy Young award.

That, in a nutshell, is Justin Verlander's 2012, another data point in his developing Hall of Fame resume. Prior to the season, I wrote that Roy Halladay remained baseball's best moundsman until he was dethroned. Consider the coup complete.

The Tigers without Verlander don't only fail to win their division or make the playoffs, they struggle to win half their games. Verlander was not only the best pitcher in the American League this year, he led the Majors in innings pitched, which means we was the best, the most, and consequently he rated first in baseball in pitcher value over replacement player. He placed second in the league in ERA despite a no-glove infield, second in WHIP and strikeout-walk ratio, and first in strikeouts, complete games, shutouts and quality starts.

Like the Venus de Milo, the numbers only represent part of the story. Justin Verlander is the unquestioned leader of the Tigers. He wants the ball every fifth day and he considers relief pitching a sign of weakness to be avoided. For the first half of the season, he was Detroit's only reliable arm. He's the best pitcher in the AL once again, and once again it isn't close.

All of which serves to overshadow the wonderful seasons posted by Tampa Bay's David Price (20-5, 2.56 in 211 innings, 25 quality starts and 205 strikeouts); the White Sox's Chris Sale (17-8, 3.05 in his first year as a starter, with 192 strikeouts in 192 innings); Seattle's Felix Hernandez (13-9, 3.06 for an offensively-null team and 223 strikeouts in 232 innings); Anaheim's Jered Weaver (20-5, 2.81 and leading the league in WHIP in 189 innings and 21 quality starts) and Yankee CC Sabathia (15-6, 3.38 in 200 innings of work in an offensive-friendly park).

In particular, it obscures the remarkable accomplishments of Jered Weaver in his still young career. The 6'7" Californian is now 102-52, 3.24 lifetime, and having just turned 30, there's plenty left in that right arm. In seven seasons, he's pitched to ERAs below 3.10 four times, with 20+ quality starts each of the past four seasons. Not viewed as an ace until recently, Weaver has earned his third straight top-5 Cy Young finish this year.

In the next post, I'll tell you whether R.A. Dickey or Clayton Kershaw should win the NL Cy Young award.

Meet the New Best Pitcher. Same As the Old Best Pitcher

In season previews, I've heard/read several allusions to either Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw as the best pitcher in baseball.

Please. If a Cy Young makes a pitcher the best in the game, someone explain Randy Jones and Pete Vukovich.

The world's best hurler is not a flamethrower who combusted to a 4.84 ERA three years back.

He's not a hot young southpaw with three years of service in a hitting suppressant park.

The best pitcher in the game doesn't change from year to year. He was the best in the game five years ago and three years ago and still today at 34.

The Majors' best hurler is the essence of consistency who, since 2002, has gone 169-74, 3.19 with a 4-1 K/BB ratio, most of it in the toughest division in baseball.

It's Roy Halladay, and it will be until he relinquishes the crown.  

Now that's no knock on Verlander or Kershaw, either of whom could be ordering a bronze sculpture by the time he hangs up his spikes. Since his faceplant in '08, Verlander has delivered 53-23, 3.07, leading the AL in innings twice and strikeouts twice. He's an inner-orbit star on the mound and certainly one of the five best in his field right now. But a longer resume is required to be king, or Dexy's Midnight Runners would be in the Rock 'n' Roll Hall of Fame.

Kershaw's 2.88 ERA over his first 116 starts is head-turning even in Dodger Stadium, but it's no guarantee of future greatness. Let's see him wear the crown awhile before we starting warming up the anointing oil.

By the way, of the five Hall of Fame projection models, Halladay wins election right now in two of them and he's one good year away in the other three. And that doesn't include his season-openging gem against the Pirates of eight-inning, two-hit shutout ball.

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The Illogic of Justin Verlander

I took a course in logic when I was in college. It was in the philosophy department. I was good at it because it was basically the rules of arithmetic. The concepts seemed intuitive to me, but it was Swahili to many of my classmates.

They couldn't understand that "nothing is good" is not the same as "not everything is good." They couldn't understand that if every Saturday we wash the car, and we've washed the car, that doesn't necessarily mean it's Saturday. They couldn't understand that a sample size of one does not constitute a scientific proof. They couldn't understand that just because every time A happens, so does B, that does not mean that A causes B.

These were smart people. Consequently, I conclude that most people are failures at logic. (This may be illogical.) This explains much of what I hear on sports talk radio, and that's before anyone calls in.

I heard an intelligent and respected sports talk radio host assert that Justin Verlander is the AL MVP because the Tigers are 20-8 when he's on the mound and .500 when he's not, thus, he's the reason they will win their division.

Did you count the flaws in logic there? I found five on a quick fly-by. All told, this reasoning is utter nonsense, yet I'll bet that neither the host nor anyone else involved in the broadcast is even vaguely aware that what he said makes no sense. Because most liberal arts majors don't learn how to think in college, reporters are generally ill-equipped to deal with questions of logic like this one. Let's examine it.

First, let's stipulate that Justin Verlander is a certified stud. He's led the league in innings and strikeouts twice and his ERA is 23% better than average over his six-year career, during which time he's 102-57, 3.55. This year, he's the leading Cy Young candidate, 19-5, 2.28 with 212 strikeouts, fewer baserunners than innings and a K/BB ratio nearing five. Yowzah. Certainly, he's helped the Tigers amass a winning record.

But Verlander isn't even the most valuable Tiger. That would be catcher Alex Avila, who plays everyday at a key position, hits like a left fielder (.304/.397/.529), handles the backstop well and has added 5.5 wins to the club. Miguel Cabrera (.965 OPS), Jhonny Peralta (.863 OPS at short), Victor Martinez (.815) and Brennan Boesch (.799) have added all-star quality batting lines. The rest of the lineup has also furnished some runs, so that Detroit has the fifth best offense in the American League. Justin Verlander hasn't contributed a wink to that.

Detroit pitching is another story, ranking 10th of 14 AL mound staffs. No other Tiger starter has delivered even an average performance this year, yet the next three members of the rotation sport a 33-24 record. In other words, the Tigers are a very good hitting club with lousy pitching. If they had a few good starters, they'd be challenging for the league's best record. When they do put their one outstanding pitcher on the hill, the results are, well, outstanding.

So let's review the logical flaws:

1. The Tigers are 20-8 when he's on the mound, therefore he's great. But as we've seen, much of any pitcher's record is a function of the hitting (and fielding) behind him.

2. The team is only .500 when everyone else pitches, so Verlander must be the main reason the Tigers win. As we've seen, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Brad Penney have a combined .578 winning percentage. In fact, most of the problem is the record of fifth starter Phil Coke (2-8) and the relief corps.

3. The Tigers succeed when Verlander pitches, therefore he's the reason for their success. It happens that there is a great deal of truth here, but correlation is not causation. Lots of bad pitchers have good records.

4. Because Verlander is the difference between a .500 team and a division winner, he's more valuable than other players whose contributions don't alter the standings. Even ignoring that the premise is false, and that the Tigers would still lead their division right now with a .500 record, the conclusion makes no sense. Does the speaker suggest that if Verlander were 28-0 with a zero ERA and 400 strikeouts but the Tigers were otherwise winless he'd be less of an MVP candidate?

5. The same conclusion fails another logical test. If the same Detroit contingent played in the AL East, where a 71-59 record would leave them battling for third place, would the same Verlander performance be less valuable? 

The same host dismissed Jose Bautista's candidacy because Joey Bats' Blue Jay pitching teammates rank in the bottom third of baseball. Bautista leads all of baseball in home runs, on base percentage, slugging, OPS, True Average, Value Over Replacement Player (at the position that features the best hitters) and Wins Against Replacement, all (except homers) by wide margins. Because he takes the field every day, Bautista ranks 82% more valuable to his team than Justin Verlander. That doesn't even account for the credible case you could make that if Toronto had an AL Central schedule while Michigan had to face NY, Boston and Tampa 18 times each, their records might be reversed.

The old saying about never arguing with a fool applies to illogical people, as Adlai Stevenson pointed out. There is no way to explain to a logically-deficient person that they're making no sense because they lack the tools to comprehend it. It's like advertising a great TV picture on TV. So reporters, talk show hosts and others with soapboxes from which to opine about baseball but without the requisite logic skills will continue to make these kinds of statements. And there's not much the rest of us can do about it but try to become a majority.

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What Was Mussolini's Lifetime ERA?

What do these questions have in common:

What is the municipal budget of Lake Wobegon?
Who killed Paul McCartney?
What did Pee Wee Herman know and when did he know it?
How much is the square root of your grandmother?
Does Zack Grienke have enough wins to deserve the American League Cy Y0ung award?

The answer: they're irrelevant.

Greinke has been the best pitcher in the AL this year by the length of Curt Schilling's ego. Pitching in front of the retread defense of the Kansas City Royals, Greinke has thrown 210 innings of a 2.52 RA, better by a half run than anyone else. He's second in the circuit with 224 strikeouts and second in K/BB ratio with a mere 44 free passes. His austerity with long balls -- just 11 -- is by far the standard in the AL, as is his WHIP of 1.06. (Home runs are relatively hard to come by in Kauffman Stadium, Greinke's home park, but it's densely populated with doubles and triples. The park effect explains a nominal percentage of his superiority.)

The statheads say that Felix Hernandez's superb performance this year has saved the Mariners 68 runs compared to an average fifth starter. Roy Halladay has saved the Jays 59 runs. CC Sabathia's been worth 56. Justin Verlander, 54. Impressive, all.

Greinke: 80 runs. Attention those of you mistrusted with the vote for this award: 80 is a lot more than 68. It's a lot more than 59 and a lot more than 56 or 54.

It's also a whole lotta more than 26. That's Mariano Rivera's savings. Now, Rivera is theoretically saving runs with the game hanging in the balance, though it's debatable how true that is with a three-run lead in the 9th. Nonetheless, that's such a mammoth difference as to repudiate any vote for him over Greinke.

In short, there's really no credible argument for anyone else. But some sportswriters will demur based on Greinke's low win total. Greinke's 14-8 record pales compared to Sabatha's (17-7), Hernandez's (16-5), Verlander's (16-8) and even Jered Weaver's (15-6, with an ERA over four). Here's the problem with this argument: it's got nothing to do with anything.

That Zack's team can't figure out a way to win after he shuts down the opposition on two runs over seven frames isn't his problem. He's not responsible for the ineptitude of the relievers who follow him or the emptiness of the batting order behind him. Conversely, CC Sabathia deserves no credit for a 6-5 lead provided by Murderers' Row and clamped shut by Rivera.

The Cy Young rewards a simple proposition: the best pitcher in the league that year. The only credible answer in the AL this year is Zack Grienke. Anyone who votes otherwise should have his voting privilege revoked.
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