The NL Cy Young -- Grab Your Aspirin

Choosing 2016's best pitcher in the American League was a matter of dicing the available information. Do you more heavily weigh ERA or FIP? Which is more important, WHIP or K/BB? That kind of thing.

The problem with choosing the Cy Young winner in the NL is more one of philosophy. Does the Cy Young go to the best pitcher or the most valuable? Because it's pretty clear who the best pitcher in the world is, and was this season, when he pitched. At 12-4, 1.69, and a 15.64 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Clayton Kershaw is the universe's grand poobah of the mound. That's as obvious as a hurricane.

But Kershaw made only 21 starts this year, succumbing to injury for all of July and August. During those two months, he contributed a grand total of nothing to the Dodgers.

How do you compare that to, say, Max Scherzer, who went 20-7, 2.96 in 100 more innings than Kershaw?

Or to Kyle Hendricks, who bolted from the bottom of the Cubs' stacked rotation to lead the league in ERA, with a 16-8, 2.13 line? He allowed half-a-run more per game than Kershaw, but hurled 70 more innings.

The Crowd of Great Starters
In total, eight starters limited their opponents to fewer than three earned runs per game. That's a fat list of names to consider and it leaves off the likes of Jake Arrieta, Carlos Martinez and Julio Teheran. Among them are legitimate Cy candidates Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 in 202 innings), Noah Syndergaard (14-9, 2.60 in 184 innings), Madison Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74 in 227 innings) and the special case of Jose Fernandez (16-8, 2.86 in 182 innings before his death, and 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings.)

Lester benefited from the great Cubs infield and Syndergaard from Citi Field. Bumgarner and Fernandez were a hair less impressive than the top three candidates, particularly if you discount hitting for MadBum and sentiment for Fernandez. Kudos also to Tanner Roark and Johnny Cueto for superb seasons, but not ultimately Cy Young quality this year.

So my top three are Hendricks, Kershaw and Scherzer. Let's consider them.

Parsing the Top Three
Because Hendricks played in front of the best infield in the Majors, he could record outs more often than other pitchers without fanning opponents. The advanced stats say Hendricks' ERA was heavily polished by the awesome defensive cast in Chicago.

Kismet smiled on Scherzer's ERA also, but unlike Hendricks he was a horse, leading the league in workload. He led pitchers in wins against replacement, because while Hendricks sat on the bench while a reliever finished the job and Kershaw sat in the clubhouse rehabbing, Scherzer was still on the hill, mowing down batters. 

Scherzer was the most valuable pitcher in the NL this year.

Ultimately, It's The Claw
But here's the thing: Despite missing all that time, Kershaw earned just half-a-win less against replacement than Scherzer. His output was so spectacular, and so transcendent, that he was still the second most valuable pitcher in the league, despite missing a third of the season.

That's why I would vote for Clayton Kershaw for Cy Young. He was simply the best pitcher, by a country mile, in the NL.

Max Scherzer, for his sustained excellence, earns my #2 vote and Kyle Hendricks #3. The ERA is gaudy, but peek behind the curtain and you do see some duct tape and bailing wire.

If your philosophical bent is more in the direction of value, put Scherzer's name on your metaphorical ballot (or real one, if you are honored with a vote.) More than any other NL pitcher, he took the ball every fifth day and gave his team a chance to win. Clayton Kershaw? He won games almost by himself.

You Don't See That Very Often

Dodgers rookie center fielder Joc Pederson has slammed 18 home runs three weeks short of the All-Star break. Only three rookies in National League history have gone yard 18 or more times before the All-Star break. The names with which Pederson cohabits are: Mike Piazza, Frank Robinson and Albert Pujols.

Chris Sale shut down the Texas Rangers for eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits and no walks while whiffing 14 batters. But Sale didn't earn a win. His team lost when reliever David Robertson allowed the same number of hits, plus two walks and two runs in a single inning.

On the other side of the equation, Phillies starter Phillipe Aumont walked seven Cardinals while fanning three in just four innings. That's just the fifth time in the last two years that a pitcher has walked seven or more and struck out three or fewer.

The near-perfection of Max Scherzer's performance Saturday pointed out how prosaic his no-no was. There have been 289 no-hitters in MLB history, roughly two-a-year, including Edwin Jackson's sow's ear in 2010 when he walked 8 Rays, hit a batter and missed the strike zone on 47% of his 149 pitches. Perfectos? Just 23 all time, or fewer than two-a-decade.

That's even less often than an everyday player reaches 3,000 hits. Remember when that was special? Alex Rodriguez became the 29th to join the club last week, but only the third member to reach the 600 HR/3,000 hit heights, which he achieved, appropriately, with a dinger. Yet zzzzz. I hope we care more when Ichiro, Prince Albert and Miguel Cabrera reach that vaunted status.

Three position players toed the rubber on Friday, and not in the same game. It's the first time that happened in nearly 100 years -- since 1918 to be exact.

One of those "pitchers" was Rays keystoner Nick Franklin, who hurled a frame of three-hit, two-run ball against the Nats. During that contest, the Nats ran out pitcher Joe Ross to replace the DH, thereby becoming the first National League pitcher to DH. Ever. That he did so against a position player will probably leave him alone in history for awhile.

Remember all that talk about the Kansas City Royals dominating the All-Star voting? As more precincts report it will seem like ancient history. Most knowledgeable voters, the kind who exercise their 35 ballots, wait until the last weeks to weigh in. By then, the ranks of the deserving -- e.g. Josh Donaldson at third, Miguel Cabrera at first, Nelson Cruz at DH, Jason Kipnis or Dustin Pedroia at second -- will claim their rightful spots.

Chris Young, the Yankees' ostensible outfielder, needed six weeks in May and June to cobble together three RBIs. Chris Young, the Royals pitcher, drove in three runs in an inter-league game last week.

The Houston Astros lead the AL in homers, steals and strikeouts. They are the first AL team in nearly 80 years to nail all three legs of that stool. They also sport the third lowest batting average in the league. Drop down two more notches and they will be alone in history.

Pirates starter Charlie Morton entered his tilt against the Nationals Sunday with a 1.62 ERA. After two-thirds of an inning, during which the Nats pounded Morton for eight hits and nine runs, he left with a 3.97 ERA. There goes the All-Star berth.

A Mad Max Contract for Scherzer

"A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money." --Sen. Everett Dirksen

Three years ago, the best pitcher in baseball -- that is, the pitcher with the best performance over the last three-to-five years -- was Roy Halladay. He's now retired, after his arm, and his ERA, blew up.

Two years ago, the best pitcher in baseball was Justin Verlander, who posted a 4.54 ERA last season, 20% worse than average.

Today, you've probably heard that the Washington Nationals have signed Max Scherzer to a seven year deal worth $210 million. We're enured to the numbers at this point, but $210 million is still a boatload.

Because he's not Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer is certainly not the best pitcher in baseball. He's probably not second. But over the last three years he's dominated opposing batters to the tune of 55-15, 3.24 and 723 strikeouts. Any team would like to have the Max Scherzer of the last three seasons.

The problem is, that doesn't guarantee anything about next year, when Scherzer will be 30. And it hardly provides any guide at all to his performance five years from now, when he'll still have two years remaining on the deal.

In a spectacular study at Baseball Prospectus, Sam Miller and Mike Gianella found that 20 high-priced free agent pitchers who performed similar to Scherzer before age 30 pretty much pooped the bed thereafter. Only about half performed at an above average level the following year, and by year four more than half were either out of baseball or below replacement level.

Maybe Scherzer is like the other half. Small consolation. Even the top 50% stopped being Max Scherzer 2014 and became Kyle Gibson 2014. "Who's Kyle Gibson?" you're asking. Yeah, that's the point. (Answer: A rookie Twins starter who went 13-12, 4.47. He's not making $30 million next season.)

Maybe Scherzer's even better than the good half. Maybe there's something unique about him because he's Max. Maybe he's more like Tom Glavine, the only member of the exalted group who maintained consistently high level performance for even five years. (It's worth noting that Glavine signed the big deal with the Braves, the team that knew him best.) Then the Nats have brought aboard 33 WAR and a first ballot Hall of Famer.

That's awesome, but it's not the way to bet. First ballot Hall of Famers are celebrated because they are rare, even among guys who dominated batters from age 27-29. Instead, the Nationals have placed a quarter-billion dollar chip on 37 hoping against the odds that it will cash in.

Intriguing Teams of 2010, Part 2

Their aging, overpaid veterans have not delivered their value. Their young pitching staff is a cauldron of potential. They dealt their centerfielder to a team that needs him less than they do. Their superstar is a knucklehead. They signed a 36-year-old to be their speedy leadoff hitter. Their impending mediocrity appears to be even more mediocre than last year’s mediocrity.

In other words, they are a favorite in their division.

They’re the Detroit Tigers, and predicting what they might produce this season is as futile as predicting the next San Francisco earthquake. The bookies and statheads seem to agree that the over/under is somewhere around .500. But the Tigers are equally likely to win 91 or 71 as 81, so volatile is their team.

Let’s start with the lineup, which features the league’s most reluctant superstar, Miguel Cabrera. Just 26, he’s already pounded 209 home runs and posted a .925 OPS over six years, playing an average of 159 games a year. As a first baseman in ’09, he delivered his usual performance while overweight and apparently uninterested.

After a verbal spanking from Jim Leyland, Cabrera reportedly buckled down over the winter and reported to camp unencumbered by adipose or attitude. One shudders to think how much better he might be. The Tigers can only hope he’s enough better to compensate for 36-year-old Magglio Ordonez, whom Detroit management allowed to play enough in ’09 to vest a $14 million option despite slugging just .426 with nine homers.

Add third baseman Brandon Inge, who couldn’t hit a volleyball in the second half last year, and shortstop Carlos Guillen, who slumped in ’09 at age 33, to black holes at catcher and second base, and you have to wonder how Detroit will score any runs if Cabrera doesn’t produce.

On the other hand, inking Johnny Damon to lead off could catapult the Tigers to the win column. By solidifying the most underrated spot in the lineup, Damon sets the table for the aforementioned big guns and gives them someone to knock in. He’ll also add some speed to a slow outfield, though he may want to flip the ball to promising centerfielder Ryan Raburn on sacrifice flies.

Then there’s the big cats’ pitching staff, which could deliver anything from dazzling to disastrous. We know that Justin Verlander is money in Comerica Bank, but what to make of Jeremy Bonderman (injured the last two years), Nate Robertson (dinged last year after surrendering a 6.35 ERA in ’08) and rookie phenom Rick Porcello (3.96 ERA despite just 89 K in 171 innings)? Add to that fickle young flamethrowers Max Scherzer in the rotation and Daniel Schlereth in the pen, both of whom Detroit picked up in trade with Arizona, and the return of once-upon-a-time closer Joel Zumaya, and you get the distinct sense that this team could go up or down in a big way.

It’s hard to argue with the experts that 81 wins is about the midpoint for Motown, but this team is the poster child for standard deviation. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them either look down on the division or up at Kansas City in the final standings this year.