As a young adult, I felt it was my civic duty to investigate every policy issue facing our country and have an informed opinion on each. As I've aged, this need has ebbed, and I'm now perfectly comfortable not having an opinion on some complex issues. I can continue to cast informed votes on representatives and referenda without possessing exhaustive knowledge of every issue upon which they must rule.
When it comes to baseball awards, however, that's exactly the demand we make of voters. They must have a definitive opinion on who is the MVP or the Rookie of the Year, etc. But this year, there is one race in which it's just impossible to distinguish between a couple of candidates.
The AL Cy Young contest pits David Price's Blue Jay brilliance, following a trade from Detroit, against Astro ace Dallas Keuchel, whose season-long excellence stumbled a bit in September.
For the season, Keuchel's 20-8, 2.48 is Cy-worthy. Price is right too -- 18-5, 2.45.
Accounting for ballparks, Keuchel leads in ERA+, 162-161. In other words, the two pitchers allowed the same number of runs.
Price's 4.70 K/BB ratio is slightly superior to Keuchel's 4.24. Pitchers can't control anything as much as they can control walks and strikeouts. So that's a relative feather in Price's ball cap.
Keuchel owns a small edge in WHIP, 1.017-1.076. He's allowing fewer base runners. Because they keep the ball in the park at the same rate, that's one for Keuchel.
Keuchel has pitched 12 more innings, 232-220, which partially accounts for his superior WAR of 7.2 versus Price's 5.9.
The various defensive metrics generally like Houston's defense behind Keuchel better than Detroit and Toronto's defense behind Price. That might partially explain why teams scored 10 unearned runs against Price and only four against Keuchel. Those runs don't show up in ERA. That would seem to tilt towards Keuchel.
But fielding independent pitching measures -- about which you should be a little leery -- suggest Price has "earned" a 2.78 ERA; Keuchel has earned a 2.91.
Now, you make sense of all that. About the only thing we can say about the best pitcher in the American League this year is that it's Dallas Keuchel and David Price. (Oakland's Sonny Gray, 14-7, 2.73, is next best, but he tailed off by summer's end and pretty clearly fell out of the race.) Writers who split their votes are disdained for their indecision, or lack of guts, but in this case I think it's not just defensible, its indicated.
Showing posts with label Cy Young award. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cy Young award. Show all posts
04 October 2015
19 November 2014
Are the Post-Season Awards A Sign We're All Growing Up?
The post-season awards in baseball have served as an occasion to highlight the chasm between advanced baseball analytics and the sports' hidebound writers, broadcasters and self-proclaimed cognoscenti.
This year, however, there's not much opportunity for that. For one thing, the gap is narrowing. Sports media have adopted, to a greater or lesser degree, OPS and WAR, and while they continue to cling to pitching wins, seem to understand better the need to examine the larger picture when examining player performance.
In addition, several of the big awards seemed predestined, as if Martin Luther himself had cast a ballot. For example, Clayton Kershaw, already the best pitcher on the planet, turned it up a notch in '14. Even statheads can't argue with 21-3, 1.77 and 11 strikeouts per nine innings, particularly when he posts a league-leadoing 7.5 WAR despite missing the first month of the season.
And Mike Trout, the MVP-in-waiting, led his league in runs, RBIs and total bases while clubbing 36 home runs and playing a premier defensive position. He, too, paced the circuit in WAR with 7.9. Setting aside the argument whether pitchers should compete for a second award, these two were the clear MVP champs.
Likewise Rookie of the Year, where Jose Abreu and Jacob deGrom ran away with the hardware, or Kershaw at Cy Young, a conclusion so obvious it could less be said to be foregone than fifteengone. Only AL Cy Young was up for discussion, with Cory Kluber squeaking by Felix Hernandez.
Parsing the two was an academic exercise -- they posted similar won-loss records, innings pitched and runs allowed. King Felix allowed fewer baserunners; Kluber fanned more. Hernandez suffered from King Felix fatigue among the voters, and also from the legitimate belief that Cleveland is a tougher place to pitch than Seattle. If that was the finger on the scale provided Kluber's margin of victory, bully for the voters.
That there is a manager of the year award is a testament to writers' overblown self-importance; they can't possibly know which managers are best. That said, Buck Showalter seems a reasonable choice given his previous performance and his team's unexpected accomplishments. Matt Williams seems like an odd choice in the NL both because the Nats were generally considered the best team and because many observers view him as a work in progress. Perhaps most damning of all is Ned Yost's third place finish in the AL: his play-calling has come under withering criticism from knowledgeable analysts.
But that's the point about managers, isn't it? In-game strategy is much less important than in-clubhouse moral-building, and that's the part of the game even sportswriters generally don't see. Which is why the award is nonsense no matter who votes on it.
This year, however, there's not much opportunity for that. For one thing, the gap is narrowing. Sports media have adopted, to a greater or lesser degree, OPS and WAR, and while they continue to cling to pitching wins, seem to understand better the need to examine the larger picture when examining player performance.
In addition, several of the big awards seemed predestined, as if Martin Luther himself had cast a ballot. For example, Clayton Kershaw, already the best pitcher on the planet, turned it up a notch in '14. Even statheads can't argue with 21-3, 1.77 and 11 strikeouts per nine innings, particularly when he posts a league-leadoing 7.5 WAR despite missing the first month of the season.
And Mike Trout, the MVP-in-waiting, led his league in runs, RBIs and total bases while clubbing 36 home runs and playing a premier defensive position. He, too, paced the circuit in WAR with 7.9. Setting aside the argument whether pitchers should compete for a second award, these two were the clear MVP champs.
Likewise Rookie of the Year, where Jose Abreu and Jacob deGrom ran away with the hardware, or Kershaw at Cy Young, a conclusion so obvious it could less be said to be foregone than fifteengone. Only AL Cy Young was up for discussion, with Cory Kluber squeaking by Felix Hernandez.
Parsing the two was an academic exercise -- they posted similar won-loss records, innings pitched and runs allowed. King Felix allowed fewer baserunners; Kluber fanned more. Hernandez suffered from King Felix fatigue among the voters, and also from the legitimate belief that Cleveland is a tougher place to pitch than Seattle. If that was the finger on the scale provided Kluber's margin of victory, bully for the voters.
That there is a manager of the year award is a testament to writers' overblown self-importance; they can't possibly know which managers are best. That said, Buck Showalter seems a reasonable choice given his previous performance and his team's unexpected accomplishments. Matt Williams seems like an odd choice in the NL both because the Nats were generally considered the best team and because many observers view him as a work in progress. Perhaps most damning of all is Ned Yost's third place finish in the AL: his play-calling has come under withering criticism from knowledgeable analysts.
But that's the point about managers, isn't it? In-game strategy is much less important than in-clubhouse moral-building, and that's the part of the game even sportswriters generally don't see. Which is why the award is nonsense no matter who votes on it.
21 August 2010
Are You Smarter Than A Baseball Writer?
Congratulations! You've just been awarded a 1987 Baseball Writers Association of America card, which entitles you to vote for post-season awards.
You cover a National League team, so you'll cast your ballot for NL players.
Being the conscientious reporter you are, you've done your homework and considered seriously the options. That's another way of saying that not only have you not selected Andre Dawson and his 49 home runs MVP, he and his .328 OBP don't make your ballot. The rest of this august club doesn't share your view.
Five hurlers are on your Cy Young list, oh devoted one, and there is little to recommend one more heartily than the others. Here are their seasonal resumes:
Orel Herhiser -- The Dodger righty posted a 3.58 RA -- compared to a league average of 4.05 -- in 264 innings. His 10 complete games was second in the league and his 190 K/74/BB ratio and 1.25 WHIP both represent aptitude. He earned 24 quality starts in 35 tries.
Dwight Gooden -- The Mets' 22-year-old missed part of the season, holding opponents to 3.41 runs/game over 180 innings. Seventeen of his 25 starts pinned the needle on the quality meter. His 148 K/53 BB ratio and 1.21 WHIP were akin to Hershiser's, if slightly more impressive; his seven complete games, a whisker less.
Rick Reuschel -- The veteran northpaw split his 227 innings of 3.61 RA between the Pirates and Giants, though his 25 Pirate starts were runaway Cy Young material and his 8 Giant appearances during the pennant race were far more forgettable. His 20 quality starts in 33 tries lag his competitors, but his 1.14 WHIP and his 107 K/42 BB ratio are anyone's equal, though he gets there a different way. He also led the league with 12 complete games.
Nolan Ryan -- The 40-year-old flamethrower had his best year since 1981, leading the league with a 3.19 RA in 212 frames for the Astros. His 27 quality starts pace the circuit, as do his 270 whiffs. His 270 K/87 BB ratio is the best of the bunch; his 1.16 WHIP is right there.
Mike Scott & Bob Welch -- This pair is grouped because their performances were eerily similar, though Scott toiled for Houston and Welch for L.A. They relinquished the same number of runs, with Welch pitching four more innings, for RAs of 3.42 and 3.36 respectively. Scott's 233/79 split overpowers Welch's 196/86 and he finished eight games to Welch's six, but his 23 of 36 quality starts is a hair off Welch's 25 of 35. Their WHIPs of 1.12 and 1.15 respectively were Cy material.
Mike Scott & Bob Welch -- This pair is grouped because their performances were eerily similar, though Scott toiled for Houston and Welch for L.A. They relinquished the same number of runs, with Welch pitching four more innings, for RAs of 3.42 and 3.36 respectively. Scott's 233/79 split overpowers Welch's 196/86 and he finished eight games to Welch's six, but his 23 of 36 quality starts is a hair off Welch's 25 of 35. Their WHIPs of 1.12 and 1.15 respectively were Cy material.
It's important to recognize that Reuschel is the only moundsman here not benefiting from a stingy home park. Chavez Ravine, Shea and the Astrodome were the three hardest places to make a living with the stick. Three Rivers bore no such burden and Candlestick had its own unique story, of which holding down scoring was but a small part. (Anyway, Reuschel made all of four starts as a Giant in SF.)
So whom would you vote for? Perhaps you favor Hershiser for the durability of his excellence or Reuschel for overcoming more obstacles. I'd go with Ryan for keeping runs off the board and getting the most outs without the help of his defense. He'd have borne more of the innings burden had his mates supplied his starts with more support.
In any case, none of these fine specimens won the Cy Young in 1987. None finished second.
Here's what I didn't mention: Nolan Ryan went 8-16 for the punchless 76-86 Astros, whose best hitter, Glenn Davis, pounded 27 home runs but posted a miserable .310 OBP. Hershiser compiled a 16-16 record for a 73-89 Dodger squad so offensively inept that Pedro Guerrero's OPS 54% higher than league average still only produced 89 R and 89 RBI. Baseball writers could never bring themselves to anoint Rick Resuschel's 13-9 mark or Mike Scott's 16-13 worthy of Cy Young awards. In a year when seven American League hurlers were credited with 17 wins or more (and Doyle Alexander got credit for nine wins without a loss after a late season trade to Detroit), the 15-9 records of Dwight Gooden and Bob Welch paled.
Instead, baseball writers split their votes between Rick Sutcliffe, whose 18 wins masked a league average RA, a below-average strikeout-walk ratio and a 1.40 WHIP, and reliever Steve Bedrosian, whose 40 saves gave voters the best opportunity to demonstrate that what they knew about baseball could fit on the head of a pin without getting knocked off by the 21 dancing angels. Bedrosian won the award having faced 366 batters, a mere third of Hershiser's total.
Really, had the writers ignored an 8-16 record and bestowed the honor on Ryan, the earth would have opened up and swallowed Cooperstown whole. The heavens would have rumbled and smoting would have commenced. It was not possible in 1987 and it remain impossible today, even though there are 30 years of research demonstrating conclusively that won-loss records are poor barometers of pitching performance. The nation elected a black president, a Muslim at that; you might think baseball writers could elect the best pitcher regardless of his record.
All this may be significant again as Felix Hernandez of Seattle makes his AL Cy Young case in 2010. King Felix has pitched the most stanzas at a 3.11 RA (the league's third best) with the league's third best strikeout-walk ratio and all the other peripherals you'd expect. Irrelevant to reality but a lead weight to perception is his 9-10 record, which is entirely the result of an historically bad Mariners offense that could play home run derby in a snow globe without making it snow. The M's have scored fewer than 3.5 runs per game and have a team OPS 22% below league average. On top of that, their relief pitching is a grease fire, anchored by a closer at 0-6, 4.14.
In the same way that BBWAA members never seriously considered Nolan Ryan in 1987, they are not yet sufficiently informed to recognize that -- so far in 2010, at least -- Hernandez is somewhere in the vicinity of the AL's best pitcher. Whether he gets credited for wins, his teammates will have to answer for.
b
09 May 2010
Loser
An American League pitcher with a Cy Young pedigree is at it again. In 47 innings so far this year, he's largely baffled the opposition, yielding just 41 hits and eight walks, while fanning 36. He sports a gleaming 2.51 ERA despite a Triple-A bullpen and an energetic but flailing defense. He's thrown a complete game and six quality starts in seven tries.
An early Cy Young contender, wouldn't you say?
Contrast him with this guy: 30 games and seven starting assignments into the season he still hasn't managed to win a game. What good is this guy to his team?
I think you already know the punchline: it's the same pitcher. Zack Greinke has the dubious distinction of toiling for the Kansas City Royals, a Pittsburgh Pirates AL doppelganger. He's been brilliant, but his team remains -- after two decades of futility -- a collection of retreads and misfits. The offense has tallied 17 times in his seven starts, most of the runs coming long after he'd left the game and the relief corps had provided relief -- for opposing pitchers.
The game against the Blue Jays on April 21 is a good case in point. Grienke left the contest with a 3-2 lead after seven strong innings, fanning 8 and allowing just a walk and two hits to the league's fourth best (as of today) offense. It took two relievers to subdue Toronto in the eighth, relinquishing the lead in the process. KC won that game in the 10th -- the only Grienke start in which they prevailed. Certainly you can't argue that Greinke "failed to pitch to the score" or "wasn't clutch" or some other cliche nonsense.
Last year, there was some talk in the sports blather community that Greinke lacked the requisite number of wins to earn the Cy Young award. Fortunately, the Royals managed to claim a couple of W's behind him at season's end and the writers overwhelmingly voted for him. Still, it's inconceivable that they could anoint a below-.500 pitcher the best in the league even if he is by any relevant measure. That would require a rise to greatness -- on the writers' part -- that is six or seven steps beyond where they stand as a group right now.
Nonetheless, Greinke's early performance and record show how a great pitcher performing at the highest level can own a bad record. And there's just nothing about it that's his fault.
b
20 November 2009
Right, Right, Right and . . . Hey!
What's going on here? When do the pigs start flying?
First the writers correctly pin the Cy Young medal on Zack Greinke and his 14 wins. Better yet, there's nary a misguided dissenter.
Then, offered up a bevy of delicious NL Cy treats, they choose the tastiest morsel in Tim Lincecum. I could not have blamed them if they had picked the shiny new Chris Carpenter or even the nicely wrapped Adam Wainright. But give them credit for finding the narrow distinction among the three.
The NL MVP will be a coronation. Long Live the King, the former Prince Albert. That one isn't close. Nor is the AL award, and from all I hear, the writers will validate Joe Mauer's season with the official secret MVP decoder ring.
Hey, this isn't supposed to happen. Sportswriters and broadcasters have an unblemished 30-year record of not knowing what they're talking about. This is no time to end the streak.
What are cranks like me going to do if the writers detour from their bouts of lunacy and lustily declare that the earth is round? There's no news or intrigue in that.
Well, for now, there's still enough fodder for a blog. But I'm thinking that I'll hang it up in 2011, maybe spend the extra time making movies with Oprah.
b
07 October 2009
The NL Cy Young
The yawning chasms that exist in the MVP races and the AL Cy Young are not present in the NL Cy race this year. A couple of quarks separate Tim Lincecum and Chris Carpenter in the inner Cy orbit, with Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain and Dan Haren in the outer ring.
You can crunch the digits 'til Niagara falls and still not see a red pubic hair of difference between the two. Lincecum pitched 33 more innings and struck out lots more batters. Carpenter surrendered fewer hits and walks per inning and posted an RA a half run superior. Lincecum pitches in a stingier stadium; Carpenter throws in front of a more deft defensive unit.
There's no question that Lincecum's total body of work is worth more than Carpenter's. Thirty-three frames of Cy-level hurling is a big bowl of ice cream. Even if Carpenter's season were a half slice of pizza superior to Lincecum's, it wouldn't close the gap.
The thing is, it wasn't. Even on a per-game basis, the ghost of Cy clings to the Giant. No doubt Carpenter was magnificent in '09, but it seems like there was an extra dollop of luck involved. Opponents batted an almost-impossible .272 on balls put into play against the Cardinals' comeback kid, and stranded an impressive 80% of runners. These numbers don't really compute and tend to be the result of pure kismet.
Carpenter's a better story, what with his two-year vanishing act, and he's close enough that I can't blame anyone for casting their ballot his way. But last year's best pitcher was this year's best pitcher, and don't bet against him being next year's best pitcher in the National League.
b
You can crunch the digits 'til Niagara falls and still not see a red pubic hair of difference between the two. Lincecum pitched 33 more innings and struck out lots more batters. Carpenter surrendered fewer hits and walks per inning and posted an RA a half run superior. Lincecum pitches in a stingier stadium; Carpenter throws in front of a more deft defensive unit.
There's no question that Lincecum's total body of work is worth more than Carpenter's. Thirty-three frames of Cy-level hurling is a big bowl of ice cream. Even if Carpenter's season were a half slice of pizza superior to Lincecum's, it wouldn't close the gap.
The thing is, it wasn't. Even on a per-game basis, the ghost of Cy clings to the Giant. No doubt Carpenter was magnificent in '09, but it seems like there was an extra dollop of luck involved. Opponents batted an almost-impossible .272 on balls put into play against the Cardinals' comeback kid, and stranded an impressive 80% of runners. These numbers don't really compute and tend to be the result of pure kismet.
Carpenter's a better story, what with his two-year vanishing act, and he's close enough that I can't blame anyone for casting their ballot his way. But last year's best pitcher was this year's best pitcher, and don't bet against him being next year's best pitcher in the National League.
b
19 September 2009
What Was Mussolini's Lifetime ERA?
What do these questions have in common:
What is the municipal budget of Lake Wobegon?
Who killed Paul McCartney?
What did Pee Wee Herman know and when did he know it?
How much is the square root of your grandmother?
Does Zack Grienke have enough wins to deserve the American League Cy Y0ung award?
The answer: they're irrelevant.
Greinke has been the best pitcher in the AL this year by the length of Curt Schilling's ego. Pitching in front of the retread defense of the Kansas City Royals, Greinke has thrown 210 innings of a 2.52 RA, better by a half run than anyone else. He's second in the circuit with 224 strikeouts and second in K/BB ratio with a mere 44 free passes. His austerity with long balls -- just 11 -- is by far the standard in the AL, as is his WHIP of 1.06. (Home runs are relatively hard to come by in Kauffman Stadium, Greinke's home park, but it's densely populated with doubles and triples. The park effect explains a nominal percentage of his superiority.)
The statheads say that Felix Hernandez's superb performance this year has saved the Mariners 68 runs compared to an average fifth starter. Roy Halladay has saved the Jays 59 runs. CC Sabathia's been worth 56. Justin Verlander, 54. Impressive, all.
Greinke: 80 runs. Attention those of you mistrusted with the vote for this award: 80 is a lot more than 68. It's a lot more than 59 and a lot more than 56 or 54.
It's also a whole lotta more than 26. That's Mariano Rivera's savings. Now, Rivera is theoretically saving runs with the game hanging in the balance, though it's debatable how true that is with a three-run lead in the 9th. Nonetheless, that's such a mammoth difference as to repudiate any vote for him over Greinke.
In short, there's really no credible argument for anyone else. But some sportswriters will demur based on Greinke's low win total. Greinke's 14-8 record pales compared to Sabatha's (17-7), Hernandez's (16-5), Verlander's (16-8) and even Jered Weaver's (15-6, with an ERA over four). Here's the problem with this argument: it's got nothing to do with anything.
That Zack's team can't figure out a way to win after he shuts down the opposition on two runs over seven frames isn't his problem. He's not responsible for the ineptitude of the relievers who follow him or the emptiness of the batting order behind him. Conversely, CC Sabathia deserves no credit for a 6-5 lead provided by Murderers' Row and clamped shut by Rivera.
The Cy Young rewards a simple proposition: the best pitcher in the league that year. The only credible answer in the AL this year is Zack Grienke. Anyone who votes otherwise should have his voting privilege revoked.
b
What is the municipal budget of Lake Wobegon?
Who killed Paul McCartney?
What did Pee Wee Herman know and when did he know it?
How much is the square root of your grandmother?
Does Zack Grienke have enough wins to deserve the American League Cy Y0ung award?
The answer: they're irrelevant.
Greinke has been the best pitcher in the AL this year by the length of Curt Schilling's ego. Pitching in front of the retread defense of the Kansas City Royals, Greinke has thrown 210 innings of a 2.52 RA, better by a half run than anyone else. He's second in the circuit with 224 strikeouts and second in K/BB ratio with a mere 44 free passes. His austerity with long balls -- just 11 -- is by far the standard in the AL, as is his WHIP of 1.06. (Home runs are relatively hard to come by in Kauffman Stadium, Greinke's home park, but it's densely populated with doubles and triples. The park effect explains a nominal percentage of his superiority.)
The statheads say that Felix Hernandez's superb performance this year has saved the Mariners 68 runs compared to an average fifth starter. Roy Halladay has saved the Jays 59 runs. CC Sabathia's been worth 56. Justin Verlander, 54. Impressive, all.
Greinke: 80 runs. Attention those of you mistrusted with the vote for this award: 80 is a lot more than 68. It's a lot more than 59 and a lot more than 56 or 54.
It's also a whole lotta more than 26. That's Mariano Rivera's savings. Now, Rivera is theoretically saving runs with the game hanging in the balance, though it's debatable how true that is with a three-run lead in the 9th. Nonetheless, that's such a mammoth difference as to repudiate any vote for him over Greinke.
In short, there's really no credible argument for anyone else. But some sportswriters will demur based on Greinke's low win total. Greinke's 14-8 record pales compared to Sabatha's (17-7), Hernandez's (16-5), Verlander's (16-8) and even Jered Weaver's (15-6, with an ERA over four). Here's the problem with this argument: it's got nothing to do with anything.
That Zack's team can't figure out a way to win after he shuts down the opposition on two runs over seven frames isn't his problem. He's not responsible for the ineptitude of the relievers who follow him or the emptiness of the batting order behind him. Conversely, CC Sabathia deserves no credit for a 6-5 lead provided by Murderers' Row and clamped shut by Rivera.
The Cy Young rewards a simple proposition: the best pitcher in the league that year. The only credible answer in the AL this year is Zack Grienke. Anyone who votes otherwise should have his voting privilege revoked.
b
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