Predicting the Predictable

Former New York City mayor Ed Koch was renowned for asking Gotham residents, "How'm I doin'?" 

Let's see how I'm doing. Last year, in this post, I reviewed 2015 performances that seemed ripe for surpassing before the Summer Solstice. Let's review:

Jackie Bradley Jr. -- had amassed just five hits, one homer, no steals, and three runs and RBI into August. In April alone he knocked 22 hits, a home run, 11 runs scored, a base swipe and 13 RBIs. He popped his second homer on May 5. Mission Accomplished.

Tanner Roark -- I predicted he could top his 2015 win total of 4 right quick. It did take him until June 5, but then he heated up and finished 16-10, 2.83.

Nick Markakis -- after mashing just three home runs in 686 plate appearances in 2015, it seemed inconceivable that a guy with 144 lifetime jacks wouldn't bounce back in 2016. We were starting to conceive in 2016 when Markakis totaled just three in the first half of the season. He picked up the pop a bit as the weather warmed and ended the season with 13.

Anthony Rendon -- Injuries limited Rendon to five dingers and 25 runs batted in during the 2015 campaign. He repeated the pattern in April, but got uncorked by mid-May and collected 7 homers and 29 RBIs by the end of June. He finished with a more characteristic 20 and 85.

Jake Arrieta -- allowed just seven runs in August and September of 2015 en route to a Cy Young. Still a CY candidate in 2016, Arrieta allowed seven runs in five innings of one game against Pittsburgh. It cost him 25 points of ERA on the season.

Dee Gordon and A.J. Pierzynski -- world-beaters in 2015, both flopped predictably in 2016. The former, the batting leader in 2015, served a first half suspension and then needed all but the last two weeks to notch his 78th hit, his total by Memorial day the previous year. Pierzynski, coming back for his age 39 season, couldn't match his April 2015 home run total (three) and topped the April 2015 RBI total (15) by just nine all year.

Andrew Cashner -- Cashner appeared due for a bounce after absorbing four losses in April 2015 despite a 2.61 ERA. That was not a problem at all in 2016: Cashner pitched just 53 innings for the Marlins, going 1-4, 5.98. Bust!

Shelby Miller -- After a 6-17, 3.02 season in Atlanta, there was no way his record and ERA could be so divergent in Arizona, right? Right! In 2016, his 3-12 record was validated by a 6.02 ERA. Didn't see that coming!

Jon Jay -- As San Diego's anointed CF, it seemed likely he'd top his 2015 production of six doubles and a stolen base, early last season. He bopped his seventh double May 5 and stole his second bag May 13. It was his last steal, but Jay did leg out 26 doubles for the season.

Corey Seager -- I knew I was cheating on this one, but oh my. Seager, in an impressive cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 2015 presaged great things, so it's no surprise that by May 15 he'd topped his 2015 numbers with six homers, 20 RBIs, 23 runs and, well, everything else. Seager enjoyed a rookie season for the ages, winning ROY and earning third place in the MVP balloting with a .308/.365/.512 line and 6 WAR.

Hunter Pence -- What injuries did to limit him to 9 HR and 30 RBI in 2015 they also did to him in 2016. However, he managed twice as many games and delivered 13 homers and 57 RBI. Pence would be a perennial 4-win player if he could just stay on the field.

So there you go, 10 for 12. Of course, considering this was a self-selected sample, it doesn't exactly make me Nostradamus. It just shows that good players tend to bounce back from bad years and no one is as good as his best year.

Revisiting Jayson Stark and Captain Underpants

Back on the Ides of February I paid homage to the special talent of writer Jayson Stark, admired for excavating baseball's obscure and confounding in a whimsical way.

One tradition of his is to identify players who have surpassed previous season or career norms just days into the season. In my post, I went Jayson one better, predicting which players that might be in 2016.

I thought it'd be fun to take a spin through the picks and see how they turned out. (Spoiler alert: about what you'd expect.)

First the mundane: i predicted Tanner Roark would surpass four pitching wins -- his total output in a sorry 2015 -- in quick order. Despite a winless April, Roark earned his fifth victory on Memorial Day en route to a 16-10, 2.83 season that placed him 10th in Cy voting and increased his WAR eightfold to 5.5.

Likewise for Nick Markakis and Anthony Rendon in homers and RBI. Markakis endured a quirky power outage for the Braves in '15, recording just three homers, all in the second half. He mashed 13 in '16. Rendon, stubbed by injuries last year, rebounded from a 5 HR, 25 RBI season to 20 and 85 in 2016.

No insight was necessary to observe that Jake Arrieta would allow more runs in a couple of bad outings in 2016 than the seven he held opponents to in the last two months of 2015. Sure enough, in three starts covering the end of June and beginning of July, the Reds, Mets and Pirates touched him up for 15 runs over 16 innings. For the season, Arrieta crashed to earth from his 22-6, 1.77 Cy Young campaign to 18-8, 3.10 -- still good enough for ninth in the Cy voting.

Shelby Miller endured a brutal 2015 with Atlanta where he won just once after May despite pitching well. So predicting he'd earn more W's in Arizona was like shooting fish in a barrel. Ha! Fish one, shooter nothing! Miller pitched like snake poop in 2016 and his W-L record reflected it. He won exactly zero games in April, one game in May and one in June. Injury curtailed the 3-12, 6.15 torture that cost the D-backs their #1 pick and two pitching prospects.

Likewise, I thought Captain Underpants, the reliable Hunter Pence, would crush the nine homers and 30 runs scored he produced in the injury-sacked 2015 season. Alas, Pence missed 50 games in June and July of 2016 and authored just 13 homers and 58 runs scored, many of them in a red hot September. Put him on the 2017 list!

To cover just this kind of contingency, I included Corey Seager on the list. The 2016 Rookie of the Year enjoyed a productive cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 2015, tallying 17 times after his September 1 call-up. They don't call us smart asses for being dumb asses: Seager crossed the plate for his 18th run in early May of 2016 and continued crossing it, to the tune of .308/.367/512 and MVP votes. I bet you've forgotten Shelby Miller already.

The Cardinals all but forgot Jon Jay in their outfield last year, so his trade to San Diego and the starting centerfield job offered him the opportunity to top the six doubles and one stolen base he achieved in all of 2015. He did rip 26 doubles, but swiped just two bags all season -- surpassing both previous marks by May.

Dee Gordon and A.J. Pierzynski delighted their employers in 2015 with anomalous seasons they couldn't possibly duplicate in 2016, so I threw them on the prediction wagon. And they didn't -- not even close! Pierzynski's .300/.339/.430 was the best age-38 season for anyone spending most of their time behind the plate and one of the best of his 18-year career. I said he wouldn't even duplicate his 2015's April, when he socked three homers and knocked in 14 runs. And in a desultory .219/.243/.304 campaign that is likely his last, Pierzynski never made it to three home runs and pushed across just 23 runs the entire season.

Gordon led the league in batting average and hits in 2015, legging out 78 of them in April alone. Thanks to a doping suspension, he didn't produce his 78th safety until September and lost 65 points of batting average and 135 points of OPS.

Saving the best for last, there's former South Carolina star Jackie Bradley Jr. JBJ found his mojo toiling in the Minors in 2015 waiting to showcase his transformation in August and September. Consequently, it wasn't until the eighth month that he produced his sixth hit, first double, second homer, first stolen base, fourth run scored and fourth RBI of the season.

And this year? Jackie got his seventh hit on April 20th, and completed the entire Bingo card by May 7th. On that date, his batting line included 28 hits, six doubles, three homers, two steals, 15 runs scored and 14 RBI.

That's a pretty good batting average on the predictions, though, of course, they were all a bunch of hanging curves. Then again, I could never hit a curve, hanging or otherwise.

Captain Underpants and Jayson Stark: Higher Expectations for 2016

In baseball, as in stocks, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Every season, ballers rise from the ashes of the previous year (and they don't even have to play in Phoenix) to evaporate their previous season's tally. 

You might call this the Jayson Stark phenomenon, after the brilliant ESPN and former Philadelphia Inquirer writer who's made a career documenting these idiosyncrasies.

But documenting what has already happened and identifying them in advance are horses of a different color (even if the subject doesn't play in Philly). Let's go one better than Jayson and project who might find his way into a Stark column.

Jackie Bradley Jr. -- did the Red Sox defensive whiz figure it out after a trip to the farm last summer or did he just enjoy one good month? Either way, by mid-April Jayson Stark will be comparing seasons. The University of South Carolina grad waited until August to record his sixth hit, first double, second homer, first SB, and fourth RBI and run scored. He could achieve that by his third game.

Tanner Roark -- jostled between the rotation and the pen, Roark fizzled after a strong rookie campaign. He could match his 2015 win total -- 4 -- by May of this season as the Nats return him to the rotation after losing Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister.

Nick Markakis -- the head-scratching recruitment of Markakis to the rebuilding Braves got even itchier last year when the former Oriole reached base at a commendable .370 rate but popped just three home runs in 686 plate appearances, none before the All-Star Break. Markakis had never before failed to reach double-digits in big flies. It's nearly inconceivable that he doesn't surpass his season total by Memorial Day.

Anthony Rendon -- In his first full season, the Nationals' hot cornerman looked like Mike Piazza at the plate, displaying a good eye and hard contact every time he hit the ball. Last season, exiled to second base and hurt for half the schedule, Rendon mustered five lonely homers and drove home just 25 runs. Back full-time at his natural position, watch him reach those marks by the quarter pole.

Jake Arrieta -- this works in reverse too, and it almost certainly will for the Cy Young winner. Arrieta held opponents to seven runs the last two months of the regular season; he'll do that in two bad games this Spring.

Dee Gordon and A.J. Pierzynski -- both had outstanding, though uncharacteristic, seasons in 2015 and are highly unlikely to repeat. The Braves' backstop is unlikely to play much at age 39 with the addition of defensive gem Tyler Flowers and the continued development of Christian Bethancourt. His three homers and 14 RBI in April alone might last him most of the summer in 2016. Likewise, Gordon, who collected 78 safeties for the Marlins by Memorial Day. One hamstring pull could make that tally last all season in 2016.

Andrew Cashner -- Jayson Stark will be keeping his eyes glued to the Padres' big righty, who was saddled with four losses in April 2015 alone despite a 2.61 ERA. Don't be surprised if it takes him most of 2016 to reach that total.

Shelby Miller -- Choosing Miller for this list is like winning a Republican presidential primary -- any dope can do it. Miller earned exactly one win for the Braves after May, despite a 3.02 ERA for the year. Now with an improved Diamondbacks team, expect him to surpass that by his fifth start.

Jon Jay -- Relegated like a bad English football team, the man hilariously nicknamed "The Federalist" stepped on the field only occasionally for the Cardinals last season. Now the Padres' starting centerfielder, he won't need long to produce six doubles and a stolen base, each of which will top 2015's totals.

Corey Seager -- okay, including the baby-faced Dodger infielder is cheating just a bit. The prized prospect impressed in a September call-up, but he only came to the plate 113 times. Given a full season to showcase his talents, he'll make his 17 runs scored last year look like child's play by Paraguayan Independence Day.*

Hunter Pence -- What's a day without a reference to Captain Underpants? (Hint: Say his name fast.) The best worst player in the game fell asleep an injured member of a non-playoff team and woke up a rehabilitated member of the World Series favorite SF Giants in an even year. He hit nine home runs and scored 30 times in 2015. I think he's already eclipsed those marks and it's only February.

There'll be others I can't predict. But Jayson Stark will tell us about them...after they happen.


*May 14-15

Don't Swallow the Cap: Nationals Most Improved

Someone is going to swing a deal for Cole Hamels and analysts will suggest that team is the favorite for something or other. 

The Royals grabbed Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto and now, presumably, the AL pennant, as if that is automatically conferred on the best team. 

If David Price moves, the recipient will look more formidable. KRod will make a nice addition to someone's bullpen. The Mets now have a third baseman, a backup with punch and another reliever to complement Familia.

Toronto upgraded at shortstop and picked up a relief pitcher, while the Angels added three outfielders in Shane Victorino, David Murphy and David DeJesus. Houston, hot on Anaheim's heels, secured Scott Kazmir, to support Keuchel and McHugh.

But no team has improved like the Washington Nationals, and all they did was replace one shutdown closer with another.

Often overlooked among the deadline deals is the value of returns from the Disabled List, particularly if they're healthy. For Washington, the renewed health of Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jason Werth, along with the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon, could radically improve the roster.

First to Papelbon, the new closer. That drops effective reliever Drew Storen to setup man, giving the Nats ownership of the final two innings once Scherzer, Zimmerman, Fister and Gonzalez are done putting on a show. (And that's discounting an effective return from Stephen Strasburg.) The Papelbon pickup bolsters a bullpen that had been beset by injuries. This will not only help them pull away with the division but solidify the team for the playoffs. Washington has won the most games over the last three seasons but failed to secure a single playoff series.

Zimmerman's bat was missed less than his first baseman's mitt. Fill-in Clint Robinson hit for a respectable .819 OPS in Zimmerman's stead -- Zimmerman's lifetime mark, exactly -- but the former Gold Glove hot cornerman is a much superior defender at the cold corner. 

As for left field, Michael Taylor is no Jayson Werth, whose return adds a further power dimension to the lineup and allows Taylor to slot more comfortably to defensive replacement and spot centerfielder. 

Rendon's reactivation ripples through the lineup. Back at third with his high on-base skills and gap power, Rendon pushes Yunel Escobar to super-sub at second, short and third, and displaces desperation substitutes Wilmer Difo (.250 OPS) and Dan Uggla (.589 OPS). That's a big upgrade.

Bottom line: the best team in the East has strengthened its entire infield, solidified its outfield and complemented the NL's best starting staff with a star-studded bullpen. The Mets picked up Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson? How quaint.