Revisiting Jayson Stark and Captain Underpants

Back on the Ides of February I paid homage to the special talent of writer Jayson Stark, admired for excavating baseball's obscure and confounding in a whimsical way.

One tradition of his is to identify players who have surpassed previous season or career norms just days into the season. In my post, I went Jayson one better, predicting which players that might be in 2016.

I thought it'd be fun to take a spin through the picks and see how they turned out. (Spoiler alert: about what you'd expect.)

First the mundane: i predicted Tanner Roark would surpass four pitching wins -- his total output in a sorry 2015 -- in quick order. Despite a winless April, Roark earned his fifth victory on Memorial Day en route to a 16-10, 2.83 season that placed him 10th in Cy voting and increased his WAR eightfold to 5.5.

Likewise for Nick Markakis and Anthony Rendon in homers and RBI. Markakis endured a quirky power outage for the Braves in '15, recording just three homers, all in the second half. He mashed 13 in '16. Rendon, stubbed by injuries last year, rebounded from a 5 HR, 25 RBI season to 20 and 85 in 2016.

No insight was necessary to observe that Jake Arrieta would allow more runs in a couple of bad outings in 2016 than the seven he held opponents to in the last two months of 2015. Sure enough, in three starts covering the end of June and beginning of July, the Reds, Mets and Pirates touched him up for 15 runs over 16 innings. For the season, Arrieta crashed to earth from his 22-6, 1.77 Cy Young campaign to 18-8, 3.10 -- still good enough for ninth in the Cy voting.

Shelby Miller endured a brutal 2015 with Atlanta where he won just once after May despite pitching well. So predicting he'd earn more W's in Arizona was like shooting fish in a barrel. Ha! Fish one, shooter nothing! Miller pitched like snake poop in 2016 and his W-L record reflected it. He won exactly zero games in April, one game in May and one in June. Injury curtailed the 3-12, 6.15 torture that cost the D-backs their #1 pick and two pitching prospects.

Likewise, I thought Captain Underpants, the reliable Hunter Pence, would crush the nine homers and 30 runs scored he produced in the injury-sacked 2015 season. Alas, Pence missed 50 games in June and July of 2016 and authored just 13 homers and 58 runs scored, many of them in a red hot September. Put him on the 2017 list!

To cover just this kind of contingency, I included Corey Seager on the list. The 2016 Rookie of the Year enjoyed a productive cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 2015, tallying 17 times after his September 1 call-up. They don't call us smart asses for being dumb asses: Seager crossed the plate for his 18th run in early May of 2016 and continued crossing it, to the tune of .308/.367/512 and MVP votes. I bet you've forgotten Shelby Miller already.

The Cardinals all but forgot Jon Jay in their outfield last year, so his trade to San Diego and the starting centerfield job offered him the opportunity to top the six doubles and one stolen base he achieved in all of 2015. He did rip 26 doubles, but swiped just two bags all season -- surpassing both previous marks by May.

Dee Gordon and A.J. Pierzynski delighted their employers in 2015 with anomalous seasons they couldn't possibly duplicate in 2016, so I threw them on the prediction wagon. And they didn't -- not even close! Pierzynski's .300/.339/.430 was the best age-38 season for anyone spending most of their time behind the plate and one of the best of his 18-year career. I said he wouldn't even duplicate his 2015's April, when he socked three homers and knocked in 14 runs. And in a desultory .219/.243/.304 campaign that is likely his last, Pierzynski never made it to three home runs and pushed across just 23 runs the entire season.

Gordon led the league in batting average and hits in 2015, legging out 78 of them in April alone. Thanks to a doping suspension, he didn't produce his 78th safety until September and lost 65 points of batting average and 135 points of OPS.

Saving the best for last, there's former South Carolina star Jackie Bradley Jr. JBJ found his mojo toiling in the Minors in 2015 waiting to showcase his transformation in August and September. Consequently, it wasn't until the eighth month that he produced his sixth hit, first double, second homer, first stolen base, fourth run scored and fourth RBI of the season.

And this year? Jackie got his seventh hit on April 20th, and completed the entire Bingo card by May 7th. On that date, his batting line included 28 hits, six doubles, three homers, two steals, 15 runs scored and 14 RBI.

That's a pretty good batting average on the predictions, though, of course, they were all a bunch of hanging curves. Then again, I could never hit a curve, hanging or otherwise.

Captain Underpants and Jayson Stark: Higher Expectations for 2016

In baseball, as in stocks, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Every season, ballers rise from the ashes of the previous year (and they don't even have to play in Phoenix) to evaporate their previous season's tally. 

You might call this the Jayson Stark phenomenon, after the brilliant ESPN and former Philadelphia Inquirer writer who's made a career documenting these idiosyncrasies.

But documenting what has already happened and identifying them in advance are horses of a different color (even if the subject doesn't play in Philly). Let's go one better than Jayson and project who might find his way into a Stark column.

Jackie Bradley Jr. -- did the Red Sox defensive whiz figure it out after a trip to the farm last summer or did he just enjoy one good month? Either way, by mid-April Jayson Stark will be comparing seasons. The University of South Carolina grad waited until August to record his sixth hit, first double, second homer, first SB, and fourth RBI and run scored. He could achieve that by his third game.

Tanner Roark -- jostled between the rotation and the pen, Roark fizzled after a strong rookie campaign. He could match his 2015 win total -- 4 -- by May of this season as the Nats return him to the rotation after losing Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister.

Nick Markakis -- the head-scratching recruitment of Markakis to the rebuilding Braves got even itchier last year when the former Oriole reached base at a commendable .370 rate but popped just three home runs in 686 plate appearances, none before the All-Star Break. Markakis had never before failed to reach double-digits in big flies. It's nearly inconceivable that he doesn't surpass his season total by Memorial Day.

Anthony Rendon -- In his first full season, the Nationals' hot cornerman looked like Mike Piazza at the plate, displaying a good eye and hard contact every time he hit the ball. Last season, exiled to second base and hurt for half the schedule, Rendon mustered five lonely homers and drove home just 25 runs. Back full-time at his natural position, watch him reach those marks by the quarter pole.

Jake Arrieta -- this works in reverse too, and it almost certainly will for the Cy Young winner. Arrieta held opponents to seven runs the last two months of the regular season; he'll do that in two bad games this Spring.

Dee Gordon and A.J. Pierzynski -- both had outstanding, though uncharacteristic, seasons in 2015 and are highly unlikely to repeat. The Braves' backstop is unlikely to play much at age 39 with the addition of defensive gem Tyler Flowers and the continued development of Christian Bethancourt. His three homers and 14 RBI in April alone might last him most of the summer in 2016. Likewise, Gordon, who collected 78 safeties for the Marlins by Memorial Day. One hamstring pull could make that tally last all season in 2016.

Andrew Cashner -- Jayson Stark will be keeping his eyes glued to the Padres' big righty, who was saddled with four losses in April 2015 alone despite a 2.61 ERA. Don't be surprised if it takes him most of 2016 to reach that total.

Shelby Miller -- Choosing Miller for this list is like winning a Republican presidential primary -- any dope can do it. Miller earned exactly one win for the Braves after May, despite a 3.02 ERA for the year. Now with an improved Diamondbacks team, expect him to surpass that by his fifth start.

Jon Jay -- Relegated like a bad English football team, the man hilariously nicknamed "The Federalist" stepped on the field only occasionally for the Cardinals last season. Now the Padres' starting centerfielder, he won't need long to produce six doubles and a stolen base, each of which will top 2015's totals.

Corey Seager -- okay, including the baby-faced Dodger infielder is cheating just a bit. The prized prospect impressed in a September call-up, but he only came to the plate 113 times. Given a full season to showcase his talents, he'll make his 17 runs scored last year look like child's play by Paraguayan Independence Day.*

Hunter Pence -- What's a day without a reference to Captain Underpants? (Hint: Say his name fast.) The best worst player in the game fell asleep an injured member of a non-playoff team and woke up a rehabilitated member of the World Series favorite SF Giants in an even year. He hit nine home runs and scored 30 times in 2015. I think he's already eclipsed those marks and it's only February.

There'll be others I can't predict. But Jayson Stark will tell us about them...after they happen.


*May 14-15

Carlos Delgado Deserves This Homage

He slammed 473 home runs and knocked in 1512 runs in his illustrious career. He posted a lifetime OPS of .929, 38% above average. He earned MVP votes seven times. He was beloved by teammates and above steroid reproach. And even in his final season, bedeviled by hip injuries, he continued his on base and slugging ways, with a .914 OPS.

And yet Carlos Delgado fell like a stone from the Hall of Fame ballot after one appearance.

Delgado was a spectacular hitter. He took walks and pounded mistakes, cracking 38 or more homers seven times and knocking home 100+ runs nine times. In 2000, at age 28, he batted .344, with 57 doubles, 41 homers and 102 walks, and posted an 1.134 OPS, 81% better than average, even in the big bat era.

Delgado lifted his teammates; just ask them. When fellow Blue Jay Shawn Green signed a big free agent deal with the Dodgers, he credited Delgado for his success.

Despite the injuries, Delgado continued slugging and served as an eminence grise with the Mets during their 2006 playoff run, the only one of his career. He left the game with 500 homers in sight but his dignity intact. He remains the Blue Jays' career leader in home runs, RBIs, doubles, walks, runs scored and OPS. ESPN's Jayson Stark calls him "the best player in history to get booted off the Hall of Fame ballot after his first year."

Carlos Delgado wasn't a Hall of Famer. History is littered with immobile sluggers at first base; Delgado posted the 35th most WAR among players at his position. The logjam on the ballot, combined with a paucity of post-season heroics, further conspired against him. But Carlos Delgado deserves to be remembered for his near-great career.

The Oddity In Hall Voting

In the wake of the big reveal on this year's Hall of Fame election, we can quibble, even gladiate, over who, among those on the ballot, deserved a bust in Cooperstown. Those whose enshrinement is being debated were among the greatest baseballers on Planet Earth, regardless of whether or not they make your cut or mine.

I can't plausibly argue that Sammy Sosa doesn't deserve consideration, even though he doesn't get my vote. Nor can you argue likewise against Tim Raines or Curt Schilling. It's not as if F.P. Santangelo's immortality is at issue here.

In fact, the one concept about which nearly everyone agrees is that this year's ballot positively bulges with legitimate candidates. It's the very basis of Jayson Stark's complaint. In a previous post, I counted 12 certifiable no-doubters, without even taking into account several who merited further consideration.

Yet the average voter only selected 8.4 names. How could that be?

Some Theories That Don't Hold Up
I understand that a couple of writers handed in blank ballots. However, it would have taken 85 blank ballots to skew the results so low.

I understand that much of the electorate refuses to check the box next to the names of known steroid users, like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, even though they were the best in the game before they evidently began using. (I mean, I don't understand it, but I understand that it is the case.) Nonetheless, there were available down-ballot candidates to fill their spots, like Edgar Martinez (the greatest DH of all time), Alan Trammel (one of the 15 best shortstops of all-time) and Mike Mussina (every bit as good as John Smoltz except he never accumulated stats out of the pen).

I understand that not everyone with a BBWAA card can comprehend, or come to terms with, those newfangled sabermertronics invented by Billy Beane in Moneyball. So they vote on standards -- like 300 pitching wins -- that were actually discredited by Bill James starting in 1977. In other words, before Ronald Reagan was president; before Germany was one country; before Microsoft existed; before today's 54-year-olds graduated high school.

I understand that not everyone shares my enthusiasm for Mike Piazza, or Jeff Bagwell, or Raines. Presumably some of those who would (inexplicably, to be honest) eschew one or more of those three would find some merit in Jeff Kent, Mark McGwire or (the transparently unworthy) Lee Smith. One way or another, it's hard to fathom failing to find 10 qualified candidates from among this gaggle.

The "Me" Decade
So how do these voters average one-and-a-half blank spaces? It appears that as the number of voters has grown, now above 570, the number of voters seeking their own unique identity has ballooned. There is some significant minority of voters who want to stand out, or make a stand, or stand aside. They vote exclusively for steroid suspects, or exclude anyone with a PED whisper in his dossier. (How else to explain the lack of support for Bagwell, a guy with a 149 OPS+, a great glove at first, 202 stolen bases at a 72% success rate and MVP votes after 10 seasons?)

Or they employ some pretzel logic that would make Michele Bachmann blush, so as to appear cooly contrarian, enigmatically erudite, or just plain inscrutable. Swathed in the downy comfort of 570 other votes, their franchise has become an expression of their individuality, rather than a referendum on the players' Hall of Fame credentials.

In short, it appears that for a small but growing number of BBWAA members, the Hall of Fame vote is about the voter and not the Hall. And it's going to cost some all-time greats their place in Cooperstown.

HI: I Wish I'd Thought of It

I love Jayson Stark. I think he's a really good writer who sees the trees through the forest. He's positive and temperate and loves the game of baseball.

But he deserved this. I highly recommend this article, and Fangraphs in general, for anyone who wants to understand baseball better.