Don't Swallow the Cap: Nationals Most Improved

Someone is going to swing a deal for Cole Hamels and analysts will suggest that team is the favorite for something or other. 

The Royals grabbed Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto and now, presumably, the AL pennant, as if that is automatically conferred on the best team. 

If David Price moves, the recipient will look more formidable. KRod will make a nice addition to someone's bullpen. The Mets now have a third baseman, a backup with punch and another reliever to complement Familia.

Toronto upgraded at shortstop and picked up a relief pitcher, while the Angels added three outfielders in Shane Victorino, David Murphy and David DeJesus. Houston, hot on Anaheim's heels, secured Scott Kazmir, to support Keuchel and McHugh.

But no team has improved like the Washington Nationals, and all they did was replace one shutdown closer with another.

Often overlooked among the deadline deals is the value of returns from the Disabled List, particularly if they're healthy. For Washington, the renewed health of Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jason Werth, along with the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon, could radically improve the roster.

First to Papelbon, the new closer. That drops effective reliever Drew Storen to setup man, giving the Nats ownership of the final two innings once Scherzer, Zimmerman, Fister and Gonzalez are done putting on a show. (And that's discounting an effective return from Stephen Strasburg.) The Papelbon pickup bolsters a bullpen that had been beset by injuries. This will not only help them pull away with the division but solidify the team for the playoffs. Washington has won the most games over the last three seasons but failed to secure a single playoff series.

Zimmerman's bat was missed less than his first baseman's mitt. Fill-in Clint Robinson hit for a respectable .819 OPS in Zimmerman's stead -- Zimmerman's lifetime mark, exactly -- but the former Gold Glove hot cornerman is a much superior defender at the cold corner. 

As for left field, Michael Taylor is no Jayson Werth, whose return adds a further power dimension to the lineup and allows Taylor to slot more comfortably to defensive replacement and spot centerfielder. 

Rendon's reactivation ripples through the lineup. Back at third with his high on-base skills and gap power, Rendon pushes Yunel Escobar to super-sub at second, short and third, and displaces desperation substitutes Wilmer Difo (.250 OPS) and Dan Uggla (.589 OPS). That's a big upgrade.

Bottom line: the best team in the East has strengthened its entire infield, solidified its outfield and complemented the NL's best starting staff with a star-studded bullpen. The Mets picked up Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson? How quaint.

How Washington Eliminates the Deficit

Having finally achieved Major League status after six years of bottom-feeding in the NL East, the Washington Nationals will sport some shiny new pitching along with their double-signed third-base hero, Ryan Zimmerman.

Coming off a down year -- when .289/.355/.483 and sterling defense from the keystone is a down year, it's time for your agent to rattle the corporate cage for an extension -- the face of the franchise inked a six-year, $104 million deal to kick in after the current three-for-$45 million contract winds down following next season. Zim missed 60 games in '11 due to abdominal surgery and was hamstrung (technically he was rectus femorised) upon his return, particularly in the throwing department. Three years earlier he missed 50 games with a torn labrum.

In between, Zimmerman has authored a curriculum vitae of 128 home runs, a 120 OPS+ and superb glove play over six years, dating back to his almost Rookie of the Year award, which Hanley Ramirez won on a hanging chad. His signing removes the stigma that Jayson (Not) Werth is the team's highest-paid performer.

Can the Nats expect better ROI on Zimmerman than on Werth? Almost certainly so, but that's setting the bar limbo low. Simply by stitching together previous achievements into one mosaic, Zimmerman is due for the kind of breakout that earns MVP votes. He's appeared in 162 games before. He's hit .307 before. He's walked 72 times, smacked 33 home runs and 47 doubles. He's won Gold Gloves, for whatever that's worth. Altogether, that's a .307/.400/.600 kind of campaign of which awards are made. Two or three of those seasons along with a handful more "average" Zimmerman years and the bill is paid in full with some value left over for Werth's below average flailing.

Baseball Prospectus's projections say the NL East is a coin flip in which everyone but the Mets gets a side. The Phillies are getting decrepit, the Braves stood still and the Marlins and Nationals visited the baseball team store and bought entirely new outfits. Washington picked out a smashing new pitching staff and Miami selected some lovely accessories, including a dreadlocked shortstop (which they had altered), a Gold Glove pitcher and a must-have closer (I know the price is ridiculous for a handbag, but I just love it!) Injuries, luck and a couple of unexpected performances could turn the division inside-out and backwards twice before the leaves start turning.

That means, of course, that no one player is responsible for his team's fate. But it's almost inconceivable that the Nationals can break through to the top without their new highest-paid ballplayer.

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