Former New York City mayor Ed Koch was renowned for asking Gotham residents, "How'm I doin'?"
Let's see how I'm doing. Last year, in this post, I reviewed 2015 performances that seemed ripe for surpassing before the Summer Solstice. Let's review:
Jackie Bradley Jr.
-- had amassed just five hits, one homer, no steals, and three runs and RBI into August. In April alone he knocked 22 hits, a home run, 11 runs scored, a base swipe and 13 RBIs. He popped his second homer on May 5. Mission Accomplished.
Tanner Roark
-- I predicted he could top his 2015 win total of 4 right quick. It did take him until June 5, but then he heated up and finished 16-10, 2.83.
Nick Markakis
-- after mashing just three home runs in 686 plate
appearances in 2015, it seemed inconceivable that a guy with 144 lifetime jacks wouldn't bounce back in 2016. We were starting to conceive in 2016 when Markakis totaled just three in the first half of the season. He picked up the pop a bit as the weather warmed and ended the season with 13.
Anthony Rendon
-- Injuries limited Rendon to five dingers and 25 runs batted in during the 2015 campaign. He repeated the pattern in April, but got uncorked by mid-May and collected 7 homers and 29 RBIs by the end of June. He finished with a more characteristic 20 and 85.
Jake Arrieta
-- allowed just seven runs in August and September of 2015 en route to a Cy Young. Still a CY candidate in 2016, Arrieta allowed seven runs in five innings of one game against Pittsburgh. It cost him 25 points of ERA on the season.
Dee Gordon and A.J. Pierzynski
-- world-beaters in 2015, both flopped predictably in 2016. The former, the batting leader in 2015, served a first half suspension and then needed all but the last two weeks to notch his 78th hit, his total by Memorial day the previous year. Pierzynski, coming back for his age 39 season, couldn't match his April 2015 home run total (three) and topped the April 2015 RBI total (15) by just nine all year.
Andrew Cashner
-- Cashner appeared due for a bounce after absorbing four losses in April 2015 despite a 2.61 ERA. That was not a problem at all in 2016: Cashner pitched just 53 innings for the Marlins, going 1-4, 5.98. Bust!
Shelby Miller
-- After a 6-17, 3.02 season in Atlanta, there was no way his record and ERA could be so divergent in Arizona, right? Right! In 2016, his 3-12 record was validated by a 6.02 ERA. Didn't see that coming!
Jon Jay -- As San Diego's anointed CF, it seemed likely he'd top his 2015 production of
six doubles and a stolen base, early last season. He bopped his seventh double May 5 and stole his second bag May 13. It was his last steal, but Jay did leg out 26 doubles for the season.
Corey Seager
-- I knew I was cheating on this one, but oh my. Seager, in an impressive cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 2015 presaged great things, so it's no surprise that by May 15 he'd topped his 2015 numbers with six homers, 20 RBIs, 23 runs and, well, everything else. Seager enjoyed a rookie season for the ages, winning ROY and earning third place in the MVP balloting with a .308/.365/.512 line and 6 WAR.
Hunter Pence
-- What injuries did to limit him to 9 HR and 30 RBI in 2015 they also did to him in 2016. However, he managed twice as many games and delivered 13 homers and 57 RBI. Pence would be a perennial 4-win player if he could just stay on the field.
So there you go, 10 for 12. Of course, considering this was a self-selected sample, it doesn't exactly make me Nostradamus. It just shows that good players tend to bounce back from bad years and no one is as good as his best year.
Showing posts with label Andrew Cashner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andrew Cashner. Show all posts
15 February 2017
15 February 2016
Captain Underpants and Jayson Stark: Higher Expectations for 2016
In baseball, as in stocks, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Every season, ballers rise from the ashes of the previous year (and they don't even have to play in Phoenix) to evaporate their previous season's tally.
You might call this the Jayson Stark phenomenon, after the brilliant ESPN and former Philadelphia Inquirer writer who's made a career documenting these idiosyncrasies.
But documenting what has already happened and identifying them in advance are horses of a different color (even if the subject doesn't play in Philly). Let's go one better than Jayson and project who might find his way into a Stark column.
Jackie Bradley Jr. -- did the Red Sox defensive whiz figure it out after a trip to the farm last summer or did he just enjoy one good month? Either way, by mid-April Jayson Stark will be comparing seasons. The University of South Carolina grad waited until August to record his sixth hit, first double, second homer, first SB, and fourth RBI and run scored. He could achieve that by his third game.
Tanner Roark -- jostled between the rotation and the pen, Roark fizzled after a strong rookie campaign. He could match his 2015 win total -- 4 -- by May of this season as the Nats return him to the rotation after losing Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister.
Nick Markakis -- the head-scratching recruitment of Markakis to the rebuilding Braves got even itchier last year when the former Oriole reached base at a commendable .370 rate but popped just three home runs in 686 plate appearances, none before the All-Star Break. Markakis had never before failed to reach double-digits in big flies. It's nearly inconceivable that he doesn't surpass his season total by Memorial Day.
Anthony Rendon -- In his first full season, the Nationals' hot cornerman looked like Mike Piazza at the plate, displaying a good eye and hard contact every time he hit the ball. Last season, exiled to second base and hurt for half the schedule, Rendon mustered five lonely homers and drove home just 25 runs. Back full-time at his natural position, watch him reach those marks by the quarter pole.
Jake Arrieta -- this works in reverse too, and it almost certainly will for the Cy Young winner. Arrieta held opponents to seven runs the last two months of the regular season; he'll do that in two bad games this Spring.
Dee Gordon and A.J. Pierzynski -- both had outstanding, though uncharacteristic, seasons in 2015 and are highly unlikely to repeat. The Braves' backstop is unlikely to play much at age 39 with the addition of defensive gem Tyler Flowers and the continued development of Christian Bethancourt. His three homers and 14 RBI in April alone might last him most of the summer in 2016. Likewise, Gordon, who collected 78 safeties for the Marlins by Memorial Day. One hamstring pull could make that tally last all season in 2016.
Andrew Cashner -- Jayson Stark will be keeping his eyes glued to the Padres' big righty, who was saddled with four losses in April 2015 alone despite a 2.61 ERA. Don't be surprised if it takes him most of 2016 to reach that total.
Shelby Miller -- Choosing Miller for this list is like winning a Republican presidential primary -- any dope can do it. Miller earned exactly one win for the Braves after May, despite a 3.02 ERA for the year. Now with an improved Diamondbacks team, expect him to surpass that by his fifth start.
Jon Jay -- Relegated like a bad English football team, the man hilariously nicknamed "The Federalist" stepped on the field only occasionally for the Cardinals last season. Now the Padres' starting centerfielder, he won't need long to produce six doubles and a stolen base, each of which will top 2015's totals.
Corey Seager -- okay, including the baby-faced Dodger infielder is cheating just a bit. The prized prospect impressed in a September call-up, but he only came to the plate 113 times. Given a full season to showcase his talents, he'll make his 17 runs scored last year look like child's play by Paraguayan Independence Day.*
Hunter Pence -- What's a day without a reference to Captain Underpants? (Hint: Say his name fast.) The best worst player in the game fell asleep an injured member of a non-playoff team and woke up a rehabilitated member of the World Series favorite SF Giants in an even year. He hit nine home runs and scored 30 times in 2015. I think he's already eclipsed those marks and it's only February.
There'll be others I can't predict. But Jayson Stark will tell us about them...after they happen.
*May 14-15
You might call this the Jayson Stark phenomenon, after the brilliant ESPN and former Philadelphia Inquirer writer who's made a career documenting these idiosyncrasies.
But documenting what has already happened and identifying them in advance are horses of a different color (even if the subject doesn't play in Philly). Let's go one better than Jayson and project who might find his way into a Stark column.
Jackie Bradley Jr. -- did the Red Sox defensive whiz figure it out after a trip to the farm last summer or did he just enjoy one good month? Either way, by mid-April Jayson Stark will be comparing seasons. The University of South Carolina grad waited until August to record his sixth hit, first double, second homer, first SB, and fourth RBI and run scored. He could achieve that by his third game.
Tanner Roark -- jostled between the rotation and the pen, Roark fizzled after a strong rookie campaign. He could match his 2015 win total -- 4 -- by May of this season as the Nats return him to the rotation after losing Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister.
Nick Markakis -- the head-scratching recruitment of Markakis to the rebuilding Braves got even itchier last year when the former Oriole reached base at a commendable .370 rate but popped just three home runs in 686 plate appearances, none before the All-Star Break. Markakis had never before failed to reach double-digits in big flies. It's nearly inconceivable that he doesn't surpass his season total by Memorial Day.
Anthony Rendon -- In his first full season, the Nationals' hot cornerman looked like Mike Piazza at the plate, displaying a good eye and hard contact every time he hit the ball. Last season, exiled to second base and hurt for half the schedule, Rendon mustered five lonely homers and drove home just 25 runs. Back full-time at his natural position, watch him reach those marks by the quarter pole.
Jake Arrieta -- this works in reverse too, and it almost certainly will for the Cy Young winner. Arrieta held opponents to seven runs the last two months of the regular season; he'll do that in two bad games this Spring.
Dee Gordon and A.J. Pierzynski -- both had outstanding, though uncharacteristic, seasons in 2015 and are highly unlikely to repeat. The Braves' backstop is unlikely to play much at age 39 with the addition of defensive gem Tyler Flowers and the continued development of Christian Bethancourt. His three homers and 14 RBI in April alone might last him most of the summer in 2016. Likewise, Gordon, who collected 78 safeties for the Marlins by Memorial Day. One hamstring pull could make that tally last all season in 2016.
Andrew Cashner -- Jayson Stark will be keeping his eyes glued to the Padres' big righty, who was saddled with four losses in April 2015 alone despite a 2.61 ERA. Don't be surprised if it takes him most of 2016 to reach that total.
Shelby Miller -- Choosing Miller for this list is like winning a Republican presidential primary -- any dope can do it. Miller earned exactly one win for the Braves after May, despite a 3.02 ERA for the year. Now with an improved Diamondbacks team, expect him to surpass that by his fifth start.
Jon Jay -- Relegated like a bad English football team, the man hilariously nicknamed "The Federalist" stepped on the field only occasionally for the Cardinals last season. Now the Padres' starting centerfielder, he won't need long to produce six doubles and a stolen base, each of which will top 2015's totals.
Corey Seager -- okay, including the baby-faced Dodger infielder is cheating just a bit. The prized prospect impressed in a September call-up, but he only came to the plate 113 times. Given a full season to showcase his talents, he'll make his 17 runs scored last year look like child's play by Paraguayan Independence Day.*
Hunter Pence -- What's a day without a reference to Captain Underpants? (Hint: Say his name fast.) The best worst player in the game fell asleep an injured member of a non-playoff team and woke up a rehabilitated member of the World Series favorite SF Giants in an even year. He hit nine home runs and scored 30 times in 2015. I think he's already eclipsed those marks and it's only February.
There'll be others I can't predict. But Jayson Stark will tell us about them...after they happen.
*May 14-15
21 September 2013
Swinging Bunts and Bloop Hits
Miracle on 161st Street
More on this in a full post, but if Joe Girardi isn't AL manager of the year then I'm Barry Manilow. He's taken an ever-changing replacement-player roster to contention and done it without a hint of rancor or complaint. He's incorporated the Alex Rodriguez Traveling Circus into the family with beneficial results. And he's had to have The Talk with a parade of .196 hitters whose 15 minutes in pinstripes has ended.
All that and his ace has gone half-joker. If this team were challenging Toronto for the cellar, no one would blame them.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dodgers Make A Splash
Did I miss the memo on pool parties? Is that another unwritten rule that you're just supposed to intuit? Man, I can't keep track. I always thought that celebrating in a pool was a great idea.
What's the unwritten rule on calling opponents classless? Someone ask Willie Bloomquist. What's the unwritten rule on politicians who can't get anything done in Washington commenting on the baseball team celebrations? I think "shut up" is the rule, John McCain, but I don't know because it's unwritten.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Star Bucs
A yearlong fear: The Pirates have a spectacular season but run out of steam -- as young, inexperienced teams often do -- in the last 10 or 20 games. They fall into the Wild Card and lose the one-game play-in. Six months of developing goodwill disappears in nine innings. It feels like another "Wait 'til Next Year" scenario in Pittsburgh.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yasiel Who?
More on the MVP races in a full post, but consider this couldabeen: In exactly half a season of work, Hanley Ramirez is hitting .351/.403/.656 with 20 homers and 10 steals from the shortstop position. He's playing some of the best defense of his career and has been worth 5.6 wins for the Dodgers. In half a season.
The last player to post 11.2+ wins against replacement without taking drugs*? Pedro Martinez 13 years ago. The last everyday player? Yaz in '67.
*As far as we know.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Joba Rules
At $2 or $3 million in his last year of arbitration, it's hard to see Joba Chamberlain sticking with the Yankees in 2014. He's regressed as a pitcher, walking 5.4 per nine innings and contributing replacement value the last two years. His home run rate has risen each year but one to an unsustainable 1.7 per nine innings. At this point he's little more than a middle-inning mop-up guy. For the suddenly cost-conscious Yankees, that may not play.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#Quitchacussing
Issues Brandon Phillips shouldn't comment on publicly: chemical weapons in Syria, Russia's crackdown on gays, possible implications of the Affordable Care Act, his .310 on-base percentage. You want to shut up the Enquirer writer, Brandon? Get on base more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cashnering In
After closing at TCU and 93 MLB games as a reliever, Andrew Cashner may be emerging as a rotation ace this season. At 10-8, 3.21 for the Padres, the bearded one has hurled five straight games of at least seven frames relinquishing two earned runs or fewer. Scouts believed Cashner had the best stuff of college pitchers in the 2008 draft.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Flipping the Script
The Red Sox are just the fourth team all-time to win 93+ games the year after losing 93+ games. With two more victories, the Indians will become the fifth.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Playoff Odd In yesterday's post, these were the quoted AL playoff odds from Baseball Prospectus:
Tampa Bay 70%
Texas 67%
Cleveland 49%
Baltimore 9%
KC 4%
New York 1%
Just to give you an idea how fluid these ratings are, consider them one game later:
Tampa Bay 78%
Cleveland 60%Texas 50%
KC 6%
Baltimore 4%
New York 2%
It does call into question how a team can plummet from highly likely to a toss-up after one loss, as the Rangers supposedly did. These playoff odds remind me a bit of five-day weather forecasts. Follow the fifth day forecast over the week and you'll see it change daily before ultimately missing the mark.
More on this in a full post, but if Joe Girardi isn't AL manager of the year then I'm Barry Manilow. He's taken an ever-changing replacement-player roster to contention and done it without a hint of rancor or complaint. He's incorporated the Alex Rodriguez Traveling Circus into the family with beneficial results. And he's had to have The Talk with a parade of .196 hitters whose 15 minutes in pinstripes has ended.
All that and his ace has gone half-joker. If this team were challenging Toronto for the cellar, no one would blame them.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dodgers Make A Splash
Did I miss the memo on pool parties? Is that another unwritten rule that you're just supposed to intuit? Man, I can't keep track. I always thought that celebrating in a pool was a great idea.
What's the unwritten rule on calling opponents classless? Someone ask Willie Bloomquist. What's the unwritten rule on politicians who can't get anything done in Washington commenting on the baseball team celebrations? I think "shut up" is the rule, John McCain, but I don't know because it's unwritten.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Star Bucs
A yearlong fear: The Pirates have a spectacular season but run out of steam -- as young, inexperienced teams often do -- in the last 10 or 20 games. They fall into the Wild Card and lose the one-game play-in. Six months of developing goodwill disappears in nine innings. It feels like another "Wait 'til Next Year" scenario in Pittsburgh.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yasiel Who?
More on the MVP races in a full post, but consider this couldabeen: In exactly half a season of work, Hanley Ramirez is hitting .351/.403/.656 with 20 homers and 10 steals from the shortstop position. He's playing some of the best defense of his career and has been worth 5.6 wins for the Dodgers. In half a season.
The last player to post 11.2+ wins against replacement without taking drugs*? Pedro Martinez 13 years ago. The last everyday player? Yaz in '67.
*As far as we know.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Joba Rules
At $2 or $3 million in his last year of arbitration, it's hard to see Joba Chamberlain sticking with the Yankees in 2014. He's regressed as a pitcher, walking 5.4 per nine innings and contributing replacement value the last two years. His home run rate has risen each year but one to an unsustainable 1.7 per nine innings. At this point he's little more than a middle-inning mop-up guy. For the suddenly cost-conscious Yankees, that may not play.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#Quitchacussing
Issues Brandon Phillips shouldn't comment on publicly: chemical weapons in Syria, Russia's crackdown on gays, possible implications of the Affordable Care Act, his .310 on-base percentage. You want to shut up the Enquirer writer, Brandon? Get on base more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cashnering In
After closing at TCU and 93 MLB games as a reliever, Andrew Cashner may be emerging as a rotation ace this season. At 10-8, 3.21 for the Padres, the bearded one has hurled five straight games of at least seven frames relinquishing two earned runs or fewer. Scouts believed Cashner had the best stuff of college pitchers in the 2008 draft.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Flipping the Script
The Red Sox are just the fourth team all-time to win 93+ games the year after losing 93+ games. With two more victories, the Indians will become the fifth.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Playoff Odd In yesterday's post, these were the quoted AL playoff odds from Baseball Prospectus:
Tampa Bay 70%
Texas 67%
Cleveland 49%
Baltimore 9%
KC 4%
New York 1%
Just to give you an idea how fluid these ratings are, consider them one game later:
Tampa Bay 78%
Cleveland 60%Texas 50%
KC 6%
Baltimore 4%
New York 2%
It does call into question how a team can plummet from highly likely to a toss-up after one loss, as the Rangers supposedly did. These playoff odds remind me a bit of five-day weather forecasts. Follow the fifth day forecast over the week and you'll see it change daily before ultimately missing the mark.
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