Revisiting Jayson Stark and Captain Underpants

Back on the Ides of February I paid homage to the special talent of writer Jayson Stark, admired for excavating baseball's obscure and confounding in a whimsical way.

One tradition of his is to identify players who have surpassed previous season or career norms just days into the season. In my post, I went Jayson one better, predicting which players that might be in 2016.

I thought it'd be fun to take a spin through the picks and see how they turned out. (Spoiler alert: about what you'd expect.)

First the mundane: i predicted Tanner Roark would surpass four pitching wins -- his total output in a sorry 2015 -- in quick order. Despite a winless April, Roark earned his fifth victory on Memorial Day en route to a 16-10, 2.83 season that placed him 10th in Cy voting and increased his WAR eightfold to 5.5.

Likewise for Nick Markakis and Anthony Rendon in homers and RBI. Markakis endured a quirky power outage for the Braves in '15, recording just three homers, all in the second half. He mashed 13 in '16. Rendon, stubbed by injuries last year, rebounded from a 5 HR, 25 RBI season to 20 and 85 in 2016.

No insight was necessary to observe that Jake Arrieta would allow more runs in a couple of bad outings in 2016 than the seven he held opponents to in the last two months of 2015. Sure enough, in three starts covering the end of June and beginning of July, the Reds, Mets and Pirates touched him up for 15 runs over 16 innings. For the season, Arrieta crashed to earth from his 22-6, 1.77 Cy Young campaign to 18-8, 3.10 -- still good enough for ninth in the Cy voting.

Shelby Miller endured a brutal 2015 with Atlanta where he won just once after May despite pitching well. So predicting he'd earn more W's in Arizona was like shooting fish in a barrel. Ha! Fish one, shooter nothing! Miller pitched like snake poop in 2016 and his W-L record reflected it. He won exactly zero games in April, one game in May and one in June. Injury curtailed the 3-12, 6.15 torture that cost the D-backs their #1 pick and two pitching prospects.

Likewise, I thought Captain Underpants, the reliable Hunter Pence, would crush the nine homers and 30 runs scored he produced in the injury-sacked 2015 season. Alas, Pence missed 50 games in June and July of 2016 and authored just 13 homers and 58 runs scored, many of them in a red hot September. Put him on the 2017 list!

To cover just this kind of contingency, I included Corey Seager on the list. The 2016 Rookie of the Year enjoyed a productive cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 2015, tallying 17 times after his September 1 call-up. They don't call us smart asses for being dumb asses: Seager crossed the plate for his 18th run in early May of 2016 and continued crossing it, to the tune of .308/.367/512 and MVP votes. I bet you've forgotten Shelby Miller already.

The Cardinals all but forgot Jon Jay in their outfield last year, so his trade to San Diego and the starting centerfield job offered him the opportunity to top the six doubles and one stolen base he achieved in all of 2015. He did rip 26 doubles, but swiped just two bags all season -- surpassing both previous marks by May.

Dee Gordon and A.J. Pierzynski delighted their employers in 2015 with anomalous seasons they couldn't possibly duplicate in 2016, so I threw them on the prediction wagon. And they didn't -- not even close! Pierzynski's .300/.339/.430 was the best age-38 season for anyone spending most of their time behind the plate and one of the best of his 18-year career. I said he wouldn't even duplicate his 2015's April, when he socked three homers and knocked in 14 runs. And in a desultory .219/.243/.304 campaign that is likely his last, Pierzynski never made it to three home runs and pushed across just 23 runs the entire season.

Gordon led the league in batting average and hits in 2015, legging out 78 of them in April alone. Thanks to a doping suspension, he didn't produce his 78th safety until September and lost 65 points of batting average and 135 points of OPS.

Saving the best for last, there's former South Carolina star Jackie Bradley Jr. JBJ found his mojo toiling in the Minors in 2015 waiting to showcase his transformation in August and September. Consequently, it wasn't until the eighth month that he produced his sixth hit, first double, second homer, first stolen base, fourth run scored and fourth RBI of the season.

And this year? Jackie got his seventh hit on April 20th, and completed the entire Bingo card by May 7th. On that date, his batting line included 28 hits, six doubles, three homers, two steals, 15 runs scored and 14 RBI.

That's a pretty good batting average on the predictions, though, of course, they were all a bunch of hanging curves. Then again, I could never hit a curve, hanging or otherwise.

Random Observations From An Unhinged Mind

Stuff floating around my brain with nowhere to go...

This is the year of the flexfielder. Ben Zobrist has made a career of playing everything but the battery. This year Cubs slugger Kris Bryant has donned an outfield glove, an infield glove and a first baseman's mitt. The Cardinals are talking about moving Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter about the infield in order to keep shortstop Aledmys Diaz on the field.

The Royals lost two stars for extended periods on this one play. Then they lost their star catcher for a month. Then they stormed back from a 7-1 ninth inning deficit to defeat the division leader. They're just different.

Ryan Howard has more strikeouts than total bases. This is very hard to do. You need to start with a .172 batting average. Don't try this at home: this man is a professional.

You know how you have to get to a great pitcher early or you miss your chance? New research shows that's poppycock. In fact, almost every pitcher in history was worse the third time through the order, than the first time through, even though he generally had to be having a good day in order to still be in the game the third time through. 

 Are dominant starters more dominant than ever or am I just now noticing it?  Look at this:
Clayton Kershaw -- 7-1, 1.56; 5BB/105K
Jake Arrieta -- 9-0, 1.72; 21BB/67K
Chris Sale -- 9-1, 2.26; 14BB/69K
Madison Bumgarner -- 6-2, 2.12; 22BB/83K
Noah Syndergaard -- 5-2, 1.87; 9BB/79K

A 21-1 K-BB ratio for Kershaw? These are video game numbers.

Big Papi is halfway to matching the WAR of the greatest final season ever before retiring. (Shoeless Joe Jackson earned 7.6 WAR in his final season but he was banned mid-career, not retired. Roberto Clemente earned 4.8 WAR before dying in a plane crash.) At 2.3 WAR, he's closing in on Jackie Robinson (4.5 WAR), Barry Bonds, 3.4 WAR), Hank Greenberg (3.4 WAR), and Ted Williams (3.0). As of Memorial Day. Big Papi was hitting .339/.420/.720, leading the league in OBP, SLG, doubles and RBI.

Mike Trout's 150th home run last week added his name to a list of 18 players who have stroked 150 home runs before age 25 season. Two things to note here:
1. Trout has two-thirds of that season to add to his total.
2. Home run hitting is not his signature skill.

Home field advantage has gone all woolly mammoth on us. Fourteen of the 30 teams have winning road records, including Arizona, which is 8-18 at home. It doesn't include Colorado, which is .500 on the road and a losing record at home; or Atlanta, which is a mortifying 4-20 at Turner but 10-14 away from it.

In the decade of the shift, recent research shows batters actually have higher batting averages when shifted against -- but slug for fewer bases. It sounds as if they are purposely hitting the ball the other way through the hole left for them, but in effect sacrificing opportunities to hit for power. On aggregate, shifts have not been effective. Which means calls for prohibiting them is even dumber than you thought.

Royals rookie Cheslor Cuthbert hails from Little Corn Island about 43 miles east of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. His home is a mile square. A tropical rain forest, it gets 170 inches of rain a year. Although residents of a Spanish-speaking country, Corn Islanders are English-speaking. A natural Royal, Cuthbert is a direct descendant of the last king of eastern Nicaragua. 

In a game on Saturday, Russell Martin, who had managed just four extra base hits all season, ripped a game-tying double to the wall against Craig Kimbrel, who had allowed just three extra base hits all season. It was Kimbrel's second blown lead of the game, about what he normally does in half-a-season.

Jake Arrieta Is Breaking Baseball

Jake Arrieta is baseball's Leicester City. The Foxes were within a hair's breath of being relegated from the English Premier League into the second division in 2015. One year later they stand as the lords of British football. Likewise, Arrieta was thrown to the scrap heap by the Orioles before dominating the NL last season like almost no one has ever done before him.

His mastery has continued unabated this season, to the tune of 6-0, 0.84. He has won a franchise record 17 consecutive decisions dating back to August 1 of last year, during which time he is 17-0 0.55.

He has made opposing batters his bitches.

Arrieta's supremacy over 25 starts has now reached historic levels. No one in history has cooked with more gas for this long. Bob Gibson set the ERA mark in 1968, but that was a season of MLB-wide record lows in virtually every batting category, including runs scored.

Every one of those 25 starts achieved quality start status except his next to last. Manager Joe Maddon pulled Arrieta after 5 1/3 innings with a 5-1 lead against the hapless Brewers. Arrieta blamed himself for chewing up 92 pitches.

So here's the tally for those 25 games: The National League has a .376 OPS against Arrieta. They've fanned 126 times and walked 26. He allows two-thirds of a baserunner per inning, about half the league average.

In other words, against Jake Arrieta, the average hitter, say Rockies' outfielder Charlie Blackmon, who otherwise enjoys a .797 OPS, hits like a pitcher. Reds starter David Dewitt Bailey sports a career mark of .158/.185/.178 for a .362 with six doubles and no homers in his 305 plate appearances. And they call him Homer. That's what the average Major League hitter looks like against Jake Arrieta.

There is one pitcher hitting a prodigious .820 OPS with three homers during that period. That would be Arrieta himself. In those 25 games, all of baseball has managed three homers off him. That's just wrong. He's not just humiliating opposing batters; he's beating up their pitching staffs too.

A No-Hitter Is Lucky. Two No-Hitters Is Filthy.

Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me twice; shame on me.

Jake Arrieta pitched his second no-hitter in nine regular season starts yesterday. It's often been said that a no-hitter is a lucky three-hitter. Many of them are lucky eight-hitters.

But two of them in so short a span? Does that mean something? Particularly in the context of Jake Arrieta, who, after an early career as Nino Espinosa, has, over the last nine months, morphed into Walter Johnson.

Since August 1 of last season, Arrieta is 15-0, 0.49 with 20 BB and 115 K. He's thrown 24 consecutive quality starts. Steven Strasburg is second in baseball -- with nine.

The answer, as you might have guessed, is that two no-hitters in consecutive seasons is the domain of the dominant. Other than Johnny Vander Meer's legendary back-to-back no-hitters, the list of pitchers with a pair in consecutive seasons looks like this:

Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Nolan Ryan, Steve Busby, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Max Scherzer and -- wait for it -- Homer Bailey.

Arrieta's accomplishment is shrouded in the fairy dust of good fortune, sure, but it was built on heat and command that flummoxed Reds batters. If a no-hitter is a lucky three-hitter, pitchers are more likely to achieve the feat if, like Arrieta, they can throw a lot of three-hitters.

Wouldn't It Be Great...

Dreaming of the upcoming season. Wouldn't it be great if...

Someone did a home run dance in the sixth inning of a 7-2 game . . . and no once paid any attention? You want to stop gratuitous celebrations? The sound of one hand clapping would do it.

A batter laid down a bunt to break up a no-hitter in the ninth inning of a 3-0 game, invoking the ire of the opposing team and leading to a plunking, a two-base error and a double that tied the game and unwrote the unwritten rule?

Ken "Hawk" Harrelson retired and someone who knew something about baseball in the 21st century replaced him? Then fans on Chicago's South Side would have at least one thing to celebrate this year.

Umpires ordered batters to stop fooling around and get in the box and demanded that pitchers serve up the ball within 20 seconds as required by the rules? And games started moving along?

Jake Arrieta really is as good as the second half of last season? Because that would mean that in 2016 he'd allow a .409 OPS and an ERA of 0.75. He'd allow four home runs all season.

A fan bopped by a batted ball admitted it was their own damn fault for not paying attention?

The players on a last place squad began extolling the team's chemistry? Funny, you never hear that.

Someone connected to a club 10 games under .500 announced that his team had just acquired "momentum" and then they went out and won 13 of the next 15 games? Then we

would finally have one verifiable example of the spirit magic that gives rise to that term.

Baseball writers and announcers all had to take a course and pass an exam on new analysis and be able to explain triple-slash stats, Fielding Independent Pitching, True Average, BABIP and Wins Against Replacement? That way fans would learn about them and we would all better understand the game.

Baseball announcers, particularly play-by-play guys (as opposed to analysts) had to pass an oral communication exam? Then we would stop hearing idiotic phrases like "controlling their own destiny," grounds rule double, and "second-chance opportunities."  (Destiny cannot be controlled and chances are opportunities.) Announcers would understand basic sentence structure, common idioms, proper usage and diction, and generally sound like experts in communication rather than like Norm Crosby.

Mike Trout did it again, and then again and again through age 30?  He'd have 96 WAR with half his career ahead of him.

About That Whole "Cubs Fans Can Dream On" Thing...

You may recall this post back in April. I made a bit of a to-do about the folly of predicting a Cubs playoff appearance. At the risk of quoting that brilliant philosopher, my own personal self, here's what I said at the time:

"...not since 2008, coming off a roaring 97-win season, has hope taken residence so distant from reality."

Right. Well, about that.

See, here's the thing about predictions in baseball: you can be flat wrong about everything and still call the winner. Or you can nail the logic but get foiled by the vagaries of the game. If you placed those two ideas on opposite ends of the street, I'd be standing on the corner of Well-reasoned and Wrong.

The point of that article was that the Cubs were coming off an 89-loss season even while many of their young players; think Jake Arrieta, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Hendrick and Starlin Castro; had already blossomed. Despite the addition of Jon Lester and Dexter Fowler; not to mention manager Joe Maddon; and the imminent arrival of Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and that group; it seemed wise to counsel patience. Rookies not named Vida, Fernando, or The Bird don't generally rocket to success immediately. Some veteran acquisitions don't pan out. Sophomores often stumble following promising freshman seasons. And empty rosters don't unempty themselves just because a couple of newbies join the ranks.

So what happened? All the touted met their tout line, plus 235 pounds of Kyle Schwarber arrived mashing. Jake Arrieta got in touch with his inner Superman. None of the top four starters missed a start. Lester and Fowler played as advertised. The squad served as windshield to the injury bug. New manager Joe Maddon thrilled everyone and the team emerged victorious 97 times plus change in the playoffs.

The point is, that post was right. It was unreasonable to expect the Cubs to blossom all at once, maintain the gains of the previous season and enjoy the fruits of veteran labor without some setbacks. That can happen, it does, and it did. But that's not the way to bet.

The stories were similar in Flushing, Houston and Minnesota, which is why I wasn't too sanguine on any of those teams' chances. The Nationals and Angels are more talented than all of those teams, but sometimes, it's more important how much lightning is in the bottle than how much talent. And nowhere was that more obvious than with the Cubs.

Who *Doesn't* Win the NL Cy Young?

If you were Dr. Frankenhurler and conspired to design the next Cy Young winner you would assemble a creature who could eat innings, keep the ball in the park, miss bats, carve up the strike zone, suppress plate crossings and stand tallest when the pressure mounted.

Your monster would be named Jake Arrieta.

I mean Zack Greinke.

Oh Lord. We only have room for one of them. And we haven't even mentioned Clayton Kershaw.

It looks this year like Dr. Frankenhurler used the same template twice. One of these guys is Cy Winner 1.0 and the other 1.1.

Arrieta (22-6, 1.77) and Greinke (19-3, 1.66) both posted cartoon numbers with laser command and a cornucopia of offerings. Each topped 220 innings. Each fanned at least 200 and walked fewer than 50. Both benefited from defense and luck about equally; both are freakish specimens even without serendipity's side effects.

Each spells his first name with four letters and his last with seven, including three vowels. Freaky similar.

Their "Deserved Run Average," a complicated computation that accounts for everything the geeks can think of and weighs most heavily the components of good pitching rather than the results, favors Greinke, 2.17 - 2.31.

That's the difference of one run every 63 innings.

The trajectory of the two pitchers' years provide the greatest contrast: Greinke the model of consistency, Arrieta the charging bull. By now you've heard that Arrieta allowed four runs after the All-Star break. (That includes one complete game play-in, which doesn't count in the voting.) Batters hit .136 and slugged .172 against him in August and September, because he allowed two doubles, a triple and a homer. In two months of work.

Greinke is defined by his worst month, August, during which he went 4-1, 2.45, allowed a .325 SLG and whiffed six times as many batters as he walked. That was the bad month.

Cy Young voters will be swayed by which shiny object most appeals to them, the big kick or the steady speed. The overall numbers tilt ever so slightly to the Dodger, as if the inventor made one small tweak in the form between creations. But one of these guys won't win the award, and we'll shake our heads and wonder what more the good tinkerer could have done.

Balls and Strikes Around the Midpoint

After a nice start, the Rockies have dropped 36 of their last 50 contests. That's the worst 50-game stretch in team history.

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The Dodgers' Dee Gordon has stolen more bases (41) so far in 2014 than eight whole teams. The Red Sox have swiped just 27, and run into outs twice as many times (18) as Gordon.

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The bold A's-Cubs trade featuring Chicago's top two pitchers and Oakland's top two prospects tells us two things: Oakland is all in to win the World Series in 2014 and the Cubs have no intention of contending in 2015. Billy Beane has accomplished everything but a championship run in his career and the window is the widest open it will ever be, particularly with New York, Boston, Tampa Bay and Texas all shadows of their former selves. 

In Chicago, it's the third straight year they've swapped their top two starters (remember Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Scott Feldman and Matt Garza) for a minor league traffic jam that has already yielded Jake Arrieta. But Jed Hoyer & Theo Epstein know that when the Cubs are ready to compete they'll need some reliable veterans as bulwark for the roster, so the fact that they've moved Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammels means next year isn't "when." 

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In 13 starts, Clayton Kershaw has walked 12 batters and fanned 115. And pitched a perfect game. And saved money on razors. In case you're wondering if he's any good.

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The Padres lag the Majors in runs scored with 259, but have tallied eight or more five times. Those five games account for more than one-sixth of their season's scoring.

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More on Padre batting futility: six of their starters are hitting below .220 and their top slugger (Seth Smith) is on pace for 17 homers and 50 RBI. 

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Baltimore's Chris Davis busted out to 53 jacks and 1.004 OPS last year. So far in 2014, he's at 13 and .705, weighed down by a .201 batting average. Credit the popularity of the shift. On balls the lefty slugger pulled last season, he batted .468 and slugged .937. This season: .271/.608. On balls up the middle: last year, .416/.964; this year, .348/.609. (He's batting and slugging zero on his strikeouts, which are numerous.) Shifts can be beaten but evidently not by him, at least not yet.

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The last time neither the Yankees nor Red Sox was above .500 on Independence Day, the Dow stood at 3,000, Prince Charles and Princess Diana separated, and Euro Disney opened in Paris. And the Blue Jays won the World Series.

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Nelson Cruz is the best visiting hitter in Fenway Park's 102-year history, slugging .400/.457/.726 in 105 plate appearances. Imagine how good he'd be if he were still taking drugs.

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The Royals have hit 50 home runs, on pace for 91. The Blue Jays have already crushed 113. That explains why Toronto is five games over .500 and Kansas City just four.