Another Way This is a New Era in Baseball

The Houston Astros are the runaway best team in the American League this year. They clinched their division in February* behind the league's best hitting, top three baserunning, sixth best pitching and middle of the pack defense.

*Caution:  may be slightly hyperbolic.

Their avalanche of offense has six regulars sporting WAR of 2.0 or more, best in the majors by far.

Yet when Houston brass tinkered around the edges at the trade deadline, landing just left-handed bullpen piece Francisco Liriano, many 'Stros' fans were disappointed. Staff ace Dallas Keuchel spoke for many of them.

"I'm not going to lie. Disappointment is a little bit of an understatement."

What's going on here? We would never have heard this 10 years ago or probably not even five. Fans of the team with the best record and a 14-game division lead would be psyched about the approaching playoffs.

But at some point, teams realized that Billy Beane was right: "My shit doesn't work in the playoffs." And now we have a new game.

Front offices unbound from the old playoff traditions started recognizing that some of the elements of success during the marathon regular season -- a deep rotation and a solid closer -- were the wrong concoction for the sprint of the post-season. Once they determined that the key to playoff success is three aces and a stacked, two-handed bullpen, they started turning the non-waiver trade deadline into Relieverfest.


You may have noticed that the flow of everyday players during this year's dealmaking was a trickle. J.D. Martinez was the only significant hitter (unless you're counting Lucas Duda) to change hands. But a flurry of flamethrowers, both in the rotation and the pen, changed uniforms, many at high cost.

After the Yankees nabbed Sonny Gray, the Dodgers picked up Yu Darvish and the Cubs swapped for Jose Quintana, the parade of bullpen moves took off. Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson headed to the Bronx. Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle and Brandon Kitzler joined Washington. Milwaukee added Anthony Swarzack and Cleveland claimed Joe Smith. Addison Reed joined the Red Sox and Justin Wilson, the Cubs. And so on.

Today, there are two parts to the baseball campaign: the regular season and the post-season. A team's first goal is punch its ticket to the post-season. Once there, the fourth and fifth starters lose their relevance as the best pitchers take all the starts. Meanwhile, as managers aim for every 1% advantage in short series, bullpens pitch an average of nearly four of the nine innings per game.

Don Larsen would have come out after the sixth.

The trend began slowly with the 2001 Diamondbacks, who rode Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling to the title. But it really took off after the 2015 Royals won the World Series behind a mediocre starting staff and a trio of bb-throwers out of the pen.

Combine the two and you get today's situation, which appears to be only the front end of an increasing trend.

This may be the new normal. The best teams win their divisions with five starters of diminishing quality and a recognizable bullpen while targeting a couple of aces and bevy of relievers stashed during the season on weaker teams. And if that's the formula, the Houston Astros may find themselves, after bowing out in the playoffs, quoting Mr. Beane.

The Mets & the False Dichotomy of Buyers and Sellers

"Do you think the Mets will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?"

I've been asked this numerous times by NY fans desperate for a Met-amorphosis for their favorite team.

The answer, Met fans, is: No.

Not no, they will be neither. No, that is not the question. 

It is not the question because it is a false dichotomy. 

Somehow we have alighted on this bent twig of buyers and sellers, as if any team that is not in the playoff chase this season should simply tear itself down and start all over, like it's undressing for bed.

Sell the Free Agents; Keep the Rest
But the Mets are not the Reds, Tigers or White Sox. It is not true that they are doomed to failure for the foreseeable future unless they completely retool. They do not roster star players whose useful years will have passed by the time they next contend.

The Mets have been slowed not so much by poor play this year or lack of talent as by injury. If they can keep their talent on the field, and particularly on the mound, they are eating at the adult table.

The Mets aren't playing for 2017 anymore. They're hopelessly behind in the standings in both the division and Wild Card chase. So they can punt this season. But they need to strengthen themselves for 2018 when they could be a pennant prospect.

Sure, if they can get anything for Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Neal Walker, Addison Reed and Jay Bruce they should go ahead and flip them. Those players are all free agents after this season. Unfortunately, Walker is hobbled, Granderson's tank is empty and Dudas grow on trees. It's hard to see them receiving anything useful in return. Reed and Bruce might generate some return, though the Sandy Alderson would like to re-sign their sterling set-up man/back-up closer.

The Mets are Not Alone
Those kinds of short-term moves make sense, but only if they help the team win next year. The next division winner might very well include the starting staff now in Queens and plenty of the everyday players on the roster.

There are other teams in this situation. The Pirates and Cardinals have sufficient talent to compete next year, with a few tweaks. Neither should jettison every veteran in uniform, the way the Tigers and Royals absolutely must to avoid a decade of obsolescence. If the Blue Jays, Mariners or Rangers conclude that the curtain has likely fallen on their 2017 act, they also need to tiptoe through the trade season.

The point is, it is not simply a matter of choosing between emptying the farm for a late season surge or dumping the veterans with an eye towards 2021. There are plenty of teams that are good enough to win -- next year -- and should try again with the roster they have now, more or less.

Don't Swallow the Cap: Nationals Most Improved

Someone is going to swing a deal for Cole Hamels and analysts will suggest that team is the favorite for something or other. 

The Royals grabbed Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto and now, presumably, the AL pennant, as if that is automatically conferred on the best team. 

If David Price moves, the recipient will look more formidable. KRod will make a nice addition to someone's bullpen. The Mets now have a third baseman, a backup with punch and another reliever to complement Familia.

Toronto upgraded at shortstop and picked up a relief pitcher, while the Angels added three outfielders in Shane Victorino, David Murphy and David DeJesus. Houston, hot on Anaheim's heels, secured Scott Kazmir, to support Keuchel and McHugh.

But no team has improved like the Washington Nationals, and all they did was replace one shutdown closer with another.

Often overlooked among the deadline deals is the value of returns from the Disabled List, particularly if they're healthy. For Washington, the renewed health of Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jason Werth, along with the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon, could radically improve the roster.

First to Papelbon, the new closer. That drops effective reliever Drew Storen to setup man, giving the Nats ownership of the final two innings once Scherzer, Zimmerman, Fister and Gonzalez are done putting on a show. (And that's discounting an effective return from Stephen Strasburg.) The Papelbon pickup bolsters a bullpen that had been beset by injuries. This will not only help them pull away with the division but solidify the team for the playoffs. Washington has won the most games over the last three seasons but failed to secure a single playoff series.

Zimmerman's bat was missed less than his first baseman's mitt. Fill-in Clint Robinson hit for a respectable .819 OPS in Zimmerman's stead -- Zimmerman's lifetime mark, exactly -- but the former Gold Glove hot cornerman is a much superior defender at the cold corner. 

As for left field, Michael Taylor is no Jayson Werth, whose return adds a further power dimension to the lineup and allows Taylor to slot more comfortably to defensive replacement and spot centerfielder. 

Rendon's reactivation ripples through the lineup. Back at third with his high on-base skills and gap power, Rendon pushes Yunel Escobar to super-sub at second, short and third, and displaces desperation substitutes Wilmer Difo (.250 OPS) and Dan Uggla (.589 OPS). That's a big upgrade.

Bottom line: the best team in the East has strengthened its entire infield, solidified its outfield and complemented the NL's best starting staff with a star-studded bullpen. The Mets picked up Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson? How quaint.

Are the A's and BoSox In or Out?

The Oakland A's have allowed the fewest runs in the American League and stand fifth in tallies of their own. They also own the second worst record in the circuit, alternating in dead last with the Boston Red Sox. That would be the high-payroll, star-studded Sox of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Boegarts, Clay Bucholz and others.

Five score games into the season, both teams face dueling realities: on one hand, their personnel is several quanta better than their record and there's plenty of season left for a comeback. A couple of good weeks could put them right back in the thick of the Wild Card race. Sure, and Carly Fiorini could rally for the Republican presidential nomination. But neither is the way to bet. Both teams would be well-advised to flip short-term assets for help next year and beyond.

However...

This should not be confused with a rebuild. Both teams are talent-stocked and have the resources to compete in 2016. The A's have the human resources, the Red Sox less in-their-prime talent but more ability to import some. Relinquishing any veterans of value in exchange for long-term potential -- the modus operandi of rebuilds -- would set the A's and Sox back another year.

For the Red Sox, that limits trade bait to but a few players, and unfortunately for them, not the disastrous off-season signings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. (Aside: I have never seen anyone so ineptly don a glove in a Major League outfield as Ramirez. He looks like a T-baller lost in daydreams among the grass blades. Baseball-Reference.com agrees, rating the deprivation of his glovework as so severe it unravels the entire value of his offense, and then some.)

Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Justin Masterson and Alejandro de Aza are all free agents after this season, having contributed a combined two wins to the team's last place charge. Whatever little this quartet might earn in return, Boston should consider. There's no place for a gloveless wonder like Napoli next year under any circumstances, and probably not for an injury-riddled 35-year-old Victorino either. Boston needs to get better on the mound and younger in the field. Anything they could get that is Big League-ready would be a bonus.

If, by some miracle, Ben Cherington can bamboozle a rival GM into taking David Ortiz, Sandoval, Ramirez and maybe Rick Porcello off his roster, all the better. By avoiding the pursuit of old, fat, slow, clueless and ineffective this coming off-season, New England's favorite team would have a chance in 2016.

Oakland's calculations are colored by cost, but that shouldn't stop the team from considering turning around multi-position asset Ben Zobrist and closer Tyler Clippard, much as they did with Scott Kazmir. All are free agents come the Fall and could bring back actual value in return.

Unlike the Red Sox, the A's have youth, positional flexibility, pitching and plenty of cost control on their side. Only two market-price contracts -- Coco Crisp and Billy Butler, each at roughly $11 million next year -- soak the books beyond this season. Consequently, there's much less imperative for a flurry of trades at the deadline. Billy Beane would be wise to simply hit the reset button next year in hopes of winning more than the 13 of 42 one-run and extra-inning affairs that have been the team's downfall this season.

Neither club has demonstrated that it's a player in 2015 but both have hopes for 2016. Their actions leading to the trade deadline should be controlled burns, leaving enough old growth and new sprouts to provide a thick forest just a year later.

Buying and Selling at the Trade Deadline

It's that time of year when Major League teams are compelled to decide whether they're contenders or pretenders, and therefore, buyers or sellers in the non-waiver trade market. At least that's the prevailing wisdom. But not all contenders should be renting expensive properties in exchange for long-term investments, and not all bottom feeders should be swapping out their best players.

Let's take a look at some of the most intriguing teams.

First, let's speak truth to power pitching. If anyone thought the Reds were a serious contender this year after trading Alfredo Simon and Mat Latos in the off-season they were smoking more than pork. Likewise, the team is not going to contend for Johnny Cueto's continued services after this season. They should jettison their oft-injured stud starter and concentrate on signing Mike Leake and developing some talent for the future.

Speaking of power pitching, there are the Mets. Their management is smart enough to know that  the playoffs are beyond their reach in 2015. But with their bevy of young rotation pieces they have the bulwark of a future contender. Flipping young talent for a veteran rental would be lunacy, but if the Mets could dangle some excess farm arms to obtain a Major League bat, they would be a force to reckon with starting in 2016.

The Astros are for real in 2015 and beyond, but they're another team that should not sacrifice the future for some veteran bottled lightning. The youngest team in MLB, Houston should stick with the plan, and if this year doesn't pan out, it wasn't supposed to anyway.

It's a different story for the Dodgers and Nationals. Their future is now, but L.A. needs some rotational help and Washington needs a bat. They should be willing to pull the trigger on a potential-for-present value deal. The Dodgers need help after Kershaw and Greinke; the Nats are so weak at the plate that Dan Uggla has found employment with them.

If the Rockies have visions of a playoff berth anytime between now and 2021, they'd be idiots to trade Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo is signed for six years, so exporting him, as rumors suggest, means they don't believe they're contenders anytime in the next half dozen seasons. Unless they know something about him that diminishes his value (he's hitting .319 with good defense this year) they should build around him.

The Brewers are a dumpster fire, poisoned by the bad karma of Ryan Braun's return (and possibly a complete lack of pitching.) Third baseman Aramis Ramirez, starter Kyle Lohse and reliever Jonathan Broxton will be seeking the highest bidder come October. They aren't much, but they could bring back something, which is more than Milwaukee has now.

The Blue Jays went all in for this year and now find themselves among the AL East muddle, thanks to the best offense in baseball. With Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey and Jose Bautista on expiring contracts, Toronto needs to fill holes ASAP. They should do whatever it takes to stop the bleeding at closer and get another rotational arm.

The Padres are the 2015 version of the 2013 Blue Jays, 2012 Marlins, 2011 Brewers. They created a window of opportunity and threw all the assets they could find in the house. It worked for Milwaukee, who won 96 games that year, but crashed in Miami and Toronto. It's come up snake eyes so far in San Diego, and it might be time to make some adjustments. Does A.J. Preller double down, pull the plug or tweak? There aren't any minor league assets to swap, so further investment in the present is unlikely. The Pads may have to ride out the season and see what develops.

The A's were an off-season mystery and have continued their whodunit ways. They've outscored opponents by 50 runs and have the league's second worst record. The supporting data suggests a bounce back, but even if life worked that way they have a lot of ground to make up. Billy Beane is just the man for that job.

Braves announcers talk as if Atlanta is in a Wild Card chase. Puh-leeze. When two games under .500 is a pleasant surprise you know October will be vacation time. GM John Hart has his eyes set on 2017 and the players to make it work. Don't expect him to lift a finger.

The Marlins made bizarre noises about a playoff run this year when they picked up Dan Haren, who has delivered, and Mat Latos, who hasn't. With a juvenile roster featuring Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich and Adeiny Hechavarria, Miami will improve with some seasoning. If they can get anything for the two veteran hurlers fine; if not, they should carry on. I'd keep Ichiro around to show the youngsters what preparation means.

And then there are the Phillies. They should sell everything not nailed down, including the rotting remains of Ryan Howard's gargantuan contract, the Gatorade dispenser, the final days of Ruben Amaro, Jr.'s tenure as GM  and next week's clubhouse buffet. The problem is, recompense would flow away from Philadelphia to unload everything there but the food. On the other hand, Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon have some value. They need to get something for those guys because the Phils' next meaningful game will not be during Barak Obama's presidency.

Some Deadline Deals That Would Be Fun

It's that time of the horsehide season when teams earnestly get about chasing a playoff dream or resignedly rendezvous with the reality of a lost season and cash in their expiring contracts and aging veterans for some future value. 

Some clubs do find themselves betwixt and between: either they have the personnel they want but are just snakebit or under-performing -- hello Blue Jays! -- or they think they will be in contention in a year or two when their current roster will still be delivering value. These teams may smooth down some rough edges or flip a particular asset but aren't in full rebuild mode.

Focusing on the first two groups, here are some trade deadline deals that would make the playoff race funner.* 

Cubs trade Matt Garza to the Orioles -- More than any other squad in contention, the Baltimorons would be transformed by a top-of-the-order starter. Garza looks like just that, and Jed Hoyer is looking to deal. I don't know if the Oriole farm system has what the Chicagos need, but I'm taking this from Baltimore's perspective. Besides that, wouldn't it be delicious for Garza to be dealing in critical late-season contests against his old mates from Tampa? (Note: since Garza went to Texas, Baltimore might consider Kyle Lohse, who is nearly as effective as last year but without the gaudy record.)

White Sox trade Alex Rios to the Rangers -- Nolan Ryan is bracing for MLB to play Nelson Cruz's Go To Jail card, so he needs a backup plan right fast. Oakland is a second-half team and there's no guarantee the Wild Cards won't get eaten by the East. Rios is Cruz with less power but more defense. The White Sox are Texas with less winning and more future needs. Poifect.

Mariners trade Kendrys Morales to the A's --  Brandon Moss is the A's first baseman but his 16 home runs are approaching their witching hour. Morales brings added pop and defense to a team that continues to confound. Although he's about all the power the M's have, he'll be gone at year's end, long before Seattle is relevant again.

White Sox trade Jesse Crain to the Red Sox -- Relief pitchers win playoff games. This one needs different color hosiery for that to matter. This would be the perfect time for the Southsiders to deal the righty because he sports an 0.74 ERA and 46 Ks in 36 innings as free agency looms. Unfortunately, he's on the DL with a shoulder strain. Boston needs bullpen help leading up to Koji Uehara with Andrew Baily and Andrew Miller on the pines.

Padres trade Luke Gregerson to the Pirates -- Pittsburgh wants cheap, young players. But non-contenders want to trade expensive veterans. So the Pirates, who really need help in right field, should instead pick up a veteran middle reliever, and the 29-year-old northpaw is as good as it gets. A durable, consistent performer, Gregerson is under team control for two more years. Whether the Bucs' system has any decent hitting prospects for the struggling Priests is the big question in this deal.

Phillies trade Jonathan Papelbon to the Tigers -- It's going to be a quick, painful fall to the basement in Philly before they begin a long, painful recovery. Paying $13 mil for the luxury of a closer is like buying $300 wheel covers for a '74 AMC Pacer. Detroit is championship-focused and would be ready to part with piles of potential for that final piece. Tiger starters have allowed an 86 OPS+ against while relievers have allowed a 109 OPS+ against, meaning batters are hitting 14% below average against Justin Verlander, et. al., and nine percent above average against the bullpen. 

If you're playing the sports book at Vegas, not one of these deals gets you even odds. But they all make sense for both teams (assuming the sellers are satiated by the return.)




*Even more better than simply "fun."  

Trade Deadline Musings

Good News for Reds

The usually sagacious Cardinals flipped quality outfielder Ryan Ludwick for middling starter Jake Westbrook. This sounds like the kind of misstep that can cost a team the division in a tight race. Conversely, the Padres, who receive Ludwick in this three-way with the Indians, doubled their dangerous hitter quotient in the deal.

Ludwick, a .272/.341/.492 hitter with 84 long balls the last four years instantly becomes San Diego's second-best hitter and pushes one of their outfield albatrosses -- like Will Venable (.226/.313/.389) -- onto the bench. 

The Padres' gain appears to be the Redbirds' loss. St. Louis can afford to subtract offense only somewhat more than San Diego, and Ludwick is the best the team has after their dynamic duo of Pujols and Holliday, not withstanding Colby Rasmus's surprising sophomore season. Admittedly, Westbrook could be their best starter option after the spectacular trio of Carpenter/Wainwright/Garcia, but given his weak performance in Cleveland (4.65 ERA and 74K/43BB in 127 innings and just 11 of 21 quality starts), he could simply be another failed Jeff Suppan/Kyle Lohse experiment.

Acquiring a sub-middling 33-year-old starter from a desperate outfit like the Indians at mid-season ought not cost a power-hitting outfielder with a year of arbitration eligibility remaining. The Cardinals might have passed on this deal and scoured the junkyard for a Westbrook-like property that could be had for some Double-A trifling.

Rich Get Richer

Picking up Lance Berkman and back-ups Austin Kearns and Kerry Wood for some loose nuts and bolts from the minor league toolbox was more good Yankee trading. Joe Girardi had been reduced to writing a name in the DH spot that would never be seen in Cooperstown. Oh, the travesty!

Well, it is a travesty, actually, because it's another example of the unique advantages enjoyed in the Bronx. Other teams were equally interested in Berkman, whose value is enhanced for teams not already employing Mark Teixeira by his solid defense at first base. But two things destined the Rice grad for NY: 1. his price tag of $20 million and 2. Berkman's no-trade clause.

In fact, Berkman nixed a deal to the White Sox, which means they offered more than the Yankees did. Presumably they recognized that this is a bigger pickup than many in the media believe. Berkman still knows the difference between a ball and a strike, and was on base at a .372 clip with 13 home runs. Pay no attention to that .245 batting average behind the curtain.

So the Yankees will win the World Series with an all-star at every starting position and average players coming off the bench and we'll credit them with stockpiling the best players. But really, how hard is that when no other team has a chance to compete for them?

b

Snooze and Notes

I haven't commented on the blather about an All-Star appearance for Stephen Strasburg because I haven't wanted to dignify the discussion by perpetuating it. But the talkosphere persists, so I'll just point out the following.

Players don't earn All-Star berths on six good weeks of play. If Strasburg's reputation of supernova is justified, he'll collect plenty of All-Star appearances. If he's a flash-in-the-pan, we'll feel pretty stupid about giving him someone else's slot based on six lifetime starts.

It's also worth noting that Nationals management would chew their own arms off before allowing Strasburg to throw in a meaningless exhibition. (Sorry, Bud. Truth to power.) So even if you buy the argument that his selection would goose interest in the contest, he'd likely not pitch, leaving unfulfilled fans grousing.

Between the every-team rule, the lack of definition of what an All-Star is and the myopia of managers, players and fans, it's hard enough for deserving players to claim their spots. If the nation wants to see Strasburg perform, the real alternative is for Fox and ESPN to show an occasional Nats game.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The trade deadline is looming, so the discussion has begun about which team cashes in the 2010 season and dessicates its lineup. I don't know where the notion derived that the alternative to contending is selling off all your parts, but it's a fallacy. 

Certainly, teams that have no chance this year might be wise to parlay half a year of value in a veteran who won't resign for some young potential. (This isn't always true. Increasingly, front offices are deciding that the two high draft picks they receive when losing a top free agent are more valuable than whatever they can return in trade.) The obvious example is Seattle, where Cliff Lee could bring back some strategically-placed stufmuffins from the Twins, Mets, Red Sox, etc.

On the other hand, it makes no sense for the Mariners, who are probably just a few players away from duking it out for the division, to back up a truck and unloading everything of value from the roster. If they're going to have any chance in 2011, 2012 and beyond, the current stars are going to have to play a role.

On the other end of the spectrum are bottom-feeders like Cleveland, Houston, Washington and Pittsburgh. Darkening their rosters with a anyone over 30 is a mis-allocation of resources that should be remedied by trade whenever possible. Of course, that has nothing to do with the trade deadline, as the Pirates' brass has demonstrated on numerous occasions. The sooner those clubs excise older stars -- cough royoswalt cough -- from their lineups, the more they can get in return. The real issue is that if Houston, Cleveland, etc had any star players, they wouldn't be in their current predicaments.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The ground ball fairy smiled on Edwin Jackson yesterday, turning every ball hit into an out. Jackson earned a no-hitter against the hit-challenged Rays with a performance that could hardly be called excellence. Jackson struck out six, put nine men on base -- eight via walk and one via HBP -- and needed a sparkling defensive play to prevent a run from scoring and leaving a bases loaded, one out situation. He also got a boost from a forgiving official scorer who posted E-4 on a ball that might have been a hit in any other game.

Jackson needed 149 pitches to get through nine frames, so subtract a sterling defensive stop or two and he gives up runs, takes the loss and doesn't finish the game.

This will be recorded as the fourth no-hitter of the season and will be remembered as the fifth, but it was not one of the 25 best pitching performances of the year. Such is the life of a no-hitter, another piece of trivia that has value only because we notice it.

b