Hey, They Listened to Me!

Last installment of the Look Back trilogy on posts during the 2012 baseball season that either left the yard or whiffed. 

This June 26 post suggesting the Mets should eject their most powerful booster rocket engendered some indignant emails. Ha! Take that indignant emailers! Not only was it right, the Mets took the advice and traded R.A. Dickey while his value was high. 

Where the post went wrong was in suggesting that Dickey couldn't possibly keep up his first half heroics. Technically speaking, that was true: everything about R.A. Dickey is an impossibility, and yet the 38-year-old fireballing Scroogie artist manages to astonish us anew every fifth day. Only now he'll do it for Toronto while the Mets develop C Travis d’Arnaud, and RHP Noah Syndergaard.

This report of the Phillies' death as contender was not exaggerated. Nor was it premature. The core of the team in 2012 was crippled, two of the triumvirate of pitchers expected to provide ballast came up short and the franchise is left betwixt and between -- neither a contender nor a rebuilder.

This fact was underscored by the assertion in the aforementioned post that the Phils had to make a run at a pennant in 2013 given the boatload of investments in their expensive and aging core. That was followed five months later with this post, which flambe'd GM Ruben Amaro for signing another aging veteran when he should be punting the season. 

Ding this blog for being inconsistent and the Phillies for being in no-man's land. Their only hope is that Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Young and Halladay have one last burst in them, like a Phoenix, or a bag of microwave popcorn.

Finally, on a romp through the Majors at around the three-quarter pole of the season came three notable assertions that rang the distant echoes of Meat Loaf. Two out of three ain't bad.

First the losing proposition: that Mike Trout and Andrew McCutcheon seemed MVP locks, not withstanding complete collapses. Well, McCutcheon and his locks collapsed nearly completely in the second half while his Pirates skittered into the record books on the futility side. Trout continued to amaze, as did the baseball writers who picked the wrong guy -- by a country mile -- for the award.

On the other hand, the same post suggested the Dodgers should find a new home for Hanley Ramirez  after a .330/.392/.549 performance and good behavior in 23 games following his trade from Miami. Put this way:

Now if the Dodgers are smart, they'll flip Hanley's re-motivated self to another club while his value remains spiked and let his next sulk come at someone else's expense.

Ah, but they held on in the vain hope that he could help them slip into the playoffs. Instead, a .268/.305/.375 September drained most of his trade value and for the second time in five years an uninterested "Ramirez" will plague the Dodger roster at high cost. 

Carl Crawford, however, did listen, just from the other end of the country. Attempting to play through the lost Red Sox season with a torn left (throwing) elbow tendon, Crawford finally heeded the same post, which urged him to bag the season and accede to Tommy John surgery the next day. Nearly the next day . . . Crawford was packaged up with Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto to the Dodgers, whereupon he went straight into the operating room. With eight months to heal, Crawford is expected to be ready for Opening Day.

We all will be. See you there with a new batch of provocations, some of which will even be right.

More Fun With the Projector

Do you fantasize about Paul Goldschmidt's 2013 longball contributions to your keeper league team? Is Trevor Plouffe's second-year power surge and position flexibility dancing in your Hot Stove dreams?  Are you dying to see the gauge on Andy Pettite's gas tank?

Then it's time to talk more projections. Bill James is out with the first set and there's plenty to feast on. First, if you haven't read the rules of the road, they're here. Keep in mind that making predictions is easy; getting them right is hard. (Besides, these aren't predictions, they're projections. Stalagmite, stalactite.)

So let's peek ahead at what's in store for a handful of intriguing players for 2013.

Ichiro Suzuki
2010 .315/.359/.394
2011 .272/.310/.335
2012 .283/.307/.390
2013 .294/331/.370

Ichiro is the only 39-year-old on the planet projected for a bounce-back. That's due in large part to his second-half burst with the Yankees last season (.322/.340/.454) and in part to the assumption that he'll be leading off with Murder's Row behind him in the Bronx's Offense Smiley Face Stadium.

Justin Morneau
2010 .345/.437/.618, 18 homers in 81 games
2011 .227/.285/.333, 4 homers in 69 games
2012 .267/.333/.440, 19 homers in 134 games
2013 .271/.348/.459, 21 homers in 137 games

Multiple concussions derailed a near-great career but Morneau quietly rebounded last year with a nearly full season. His on-base and slugging skills have not returned with him though, leaving him a below-average first-baseman. James's projection tools suggest, alas, that Morneau has roughly found his new level.

Carl Crawford
2010 .307/.356/.495, 47 steals
2011 .255/.289/.405, 18 steals
2012 .282/.306/.479, 5 steals (31 games)
2013 .274/.318/.413, 36 steals

Before Dodger fans jump out their windows over this desultory projection, they should remember that this is a repeat of Crawford's 2008 in St. Petersburg when the Rays went to the World Series. In offense-crushing Chavez Ravine, this is more faint praise than damning and if any part of the equation rests on Crawford's rehabbing elbow then better days may lie ahead. That's important to L.A. because he's signed to a king's ransom through his 36th birthday in 2017.

Starlin Castro
2011 .307/.341/.432, 10 homers, nine triples, 35 BB, 96 K, 22/9 in steals
2012 .283/.323/.430, 14 homers, 12 triples, 36 BB, 100 K, 25/13 in steals
2013 .304/.346/.448, 12 homers, 10 triples, 38 BB, 86 K, 24/12 in steals

If this looks familiar it's because it's Alfonso Soriano's early career: a speedy, undisciplined middle infielder with good bat control and occasional pop. The question for the Castro is whether he develops his power or some discipline, or optimally, both. James's system has the arrow pointing towards an uptick in strike zone aptitude, which will be necessary if BABIP ever turns on the Cubs' shortstop. This is a guy with high potential for turning the corner to super-stardom or face-planting on a sub-.300 OBP and an impatient manager.

Paul Goldschmidt
2011 .250/.333/.474, 8 homers in 48 games
2012 .286/.359/.490, 20 homers in 145 games
2013 .283/.375/.501, 27 homers in 153 games


Well, since you asked. While you were busy watching amateurs croon and celebrities prance on your home glow box, this 230-pound first baseman authored an adept first chapter in MLB. With just 177 plate appearances in his rearview, Goldschmidt gave Arizona a batting line 23% above average and 3.7 wins above replacement. The projector suggests that Goldschmidt is on his way to becoming a "Three True Outcomes" player who fans, walks and wallops homers at high rates. (Think Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds.) When guys like that hit .283 they're major contributors.

We'll take a few more strolls through this meadow over the course of the long baseball-less winter.

Piercing Insights To Shock and Amaze

Momentary lasers of brilliance that couldn't wait to be disseminated to the world...

Big Donkey Still Kickin'

Adam Dunn wasn't nicknamed The Big Donkey to denote grace and beauty afield. Mostly the White Sox hide his glove and pencil in his name as DH. He's hitting .209 and following a record-setting strikeout trajectory with 172.

And he's worth nearly two wins compared to a replacement DH.

That's because Dunn leads the AL in home runs and walks too, giving him a respectable .342 OBP and an exemplary .494 SLG. By way of comparison, Reds sparkplug Brandon Phillips is batting 80 points higher but has posted an OBP 12 points lower.

Dunn is a quintessential Three True Outcomes (TTO) hitter: of his 512 plate appearances he's actually tested the opponent's defense just 214 times. The other 298 trips have comprised walks, strikeouts, HBP or balls hit out of the park. His infield teammate (when Sox manager Robin Ventura saddles his defense with Dunn at first), Gordon Beckham has made the defense work 333 times in just 445 plate appearances. Dunn's TTO score is 58.2%; Beckham's a more average 25.2%.

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Run-Run-Run-Runaway

If high drama is your cup of tea, the MVP race in each league is a steaming mug of strychnine. 

With a quarter of the season left, Miguel Cabrera, has a .990 OPS, 31 HR and 104 RBI, and has posted an offensive value in the five-win range. And he's a distant second in the MVP race. 

Angels phenom Mike Trout, with a 1.011 OPS and 39 steals in 42 attempts (zounds!) is worth nearly seven wins to his team -- and that's before you subtract Cabrera's third base butchery and add Trout's brilliance at the premium midfield position. 

Unless Trout tanks, Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Robinson Cano, Edwin Encarnacion, AJ Pierzynski and others will have to settle for an attaboy from their manager (and perhaps a World Series ring).

Likewise in the NL, where Melky Cabrera has turned into a pumpkin and Joey Votto's injury has removed him from contention. Pirate center fielder Andrew McCuthcen's 1.020 OPS and fielding genius has also lapped the field. Barring a McCutchen face plant down the stretch, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and David Wright will battle for silver (and probably no World Series appearances). 

Same for the Rookie of the Year award. Try a cuppa Joe.

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The Cat Says, Do It Now

Bobby Valentine could do something immediately to boost the Red Sox fortunes: Whisper the following to his disappointing left fielder, "Carl, have the surgery now."

Carl Crawford has played just 30 games this year due to a torn elbow ligament. He needs Tommy John surgery but a chivalrous streak has kept him from abandoning his troubled teammates and their late-season Wild Card run.

"What late season Wild Card run," you may have asked yourself, or your cat, who was minding her own important business, consisting largely of staring blankly into space or licking her private parts and swallowing the loose hair, for re-purposing later on the carpet. 

Exactly. 

Recovery from the TJ surgery will take six-to-nine months. (Recovery from the hairball will take several minutes and also involve labored breathing.) If Crawford hangs on for Boston's inevitable demise on Oct. 3, his healthy return for the 2013 campaign might be delayed into summer. Going under the knife next week virtually guarantees his availability at the start of the 2013 season, when the Red Sox won't be seven games in the hole.

With improved pitching that will result from the natural evolution of I haven't the foggiest idea, Boston plans to contend in 2013, and for that they need the contributions from Crawford that they paid for in the 2011 off-season. 

It's certainly possible that Fenway's brutal mound corps could catch fire pigs fly just as David Ortiz returns to a newly-rejuvenated lineup hell freezes over, leading New England's favorites out from the sub-.500 abyss chicken have teeth and past the five teams ahead of them for the Wild Card on a week with two Thursdays. That kind of miracle could occur, as this Boston contingent knows all too well, but if Crawford wants to play the odds, sticking around the rest of this season is like betting that fish will climb trees.

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He Can't Go Home Again

If Hanley Ramirez has a home in Miami, he might want to reconsider returning there following the season. After blasting the Marlins with his suck ray in 2011 and 2012, he's delivered .330/.392/.549 and good defense to the Dodgers, including four homers in a three game set against his old compadres. In just 23 games in L.A., Ramirez has been worth more to his team than in the previous 185 games in Florida.

Think they want to string him up in the Sunshine State?

Now if the Dodgers are smart, they'll flip Hanley's re-motivated self to another club while his value remains spiked and let his next sulk come at someone else's expense. That might ease the pain endured by the franchise from the re-signing of another Ramirez in 2009 to a disastrous two-year, $45 million deal after he temporarily re-discovered his inspiration with them in the 2008 season.

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The Devil's Good Side

While maintaining that expanded playoffs are the devil's workshop, I have to admit that the massive disadvantage bestowed in the new format upon Wild Card teams is shooting bolts of interest into the division races.

This year, it matters whether Chicago or Detroit wins the AL Central, or whether L.A. or San Francisco takes the NL West, even if the loser earns a post-season consolation prize. The loser's playoff fortunes will ride on a one-game, anything goes play-in game, followed by a division series in which they may have already burned their top starter.

The result: the consolation prize won't be worth anything to 50% of the teams that grab it, and even advancement into the playoffs will still entail a climb over the odds.

Expect two positive developments from the new post-season scenario:

1. Despite a doubling of Wild Card qualifiers, there will be a small decline in Wild Card teams making the World Series. 

2. The Wild Card game will be considered by baseball fandom to be a play-in, not a playoff, and teams that succumb in that  match will not be generally understood as having made the post-season.