When Theo Epstein took over the Chicago Cubs the bare cupboard allowed him an opportunity to reconfigure the franchise to his liking. Epstein decided to rebuild with hitting and defense, and pick up arms wherever he could. The Cubs drafted everyday players, developed everyday players, hunted internationally for everyday players, and when the time was right, went fishing for pitchers in free agency, low-cost trades and the like.
When you build behind pitching, you're building on a foundation of uncertainly, like a house built on sand. Scouts and seamheads know there's only a little hyperbole in the bromide abbreviated as TINSTAAPP -- there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Banking millions of dollars and a pennant on arms, shoulders, elbows and other appendages withstanding the blunt force trauma of snapping off sliders and cranking up fastballs 90 times a game is a fool's errand.
Ladies and gentleman, I give you the 2017 New York Mets.
Not so much by design as by happenstance, the studs holding up the walls in Queens are all of the hurling variety. Thor, the Dark Knight, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman and Zack Wheeler have all demonstrated ace or near-ace ability, and present as a group the most formidable five starters since at least the '90s Braves.
At the same time, only one star player graces the everyday lineup, Yo, and there are even questions about him. Baseball Prospectus's projection system has the Mets winning the division with the second best run prevention in the league, but also below average offense.
If Terry Collins can coax 130 starts out of his impossible sextet, the hitting might not matter. With continued dominance and newfound health 90 feet from the plate, the Mets could rout the division and claim the NL's best record. That is the formula that drove them to the pennant in 2015, though with a somewhat different crew.
It Isn't Gonna Be That Way
Ah, to dream. Gsellman owns all of eight starts in the Major Leagues. Matz shut it down in mid-August last season. Wheeler's a wreck after post-TJ surgery complications and Harvey looks more like the rabbit than the Knight. That doesn't even account for the prospect of injury every time a previously healthy pitcher like Syndergaard takes the mound.
The betting line on starts by the top six starters is probably in the 110-120 area and betting the over seems foolhardy. The team showed last year they could sneak into the playoffs without the staff intact, but one-and-done isn't any pennant contender's idea of success. Besides, what if the mound arms implode? It could get uglier than a Twitter war with Charles Barkley. The franchise has some good options in a pinch, but not #2-starter types for extended periods.
Fangraphs' projection system says the Mets' pitching staff (including relievers) will produce roughly twice as much WAR as the everyday players. That assumes a full season (143 starts) from the front line. A couple of injuries could easily cost 10 wins of value.
Every team has best and worst case scenarios but the standard deviations on this team are the largest. It wouldn't be shocking for them to knock on the door of 100 wins -- or 84 losses. There really isn't any other team you could say that about at season's start.
The Mets won 90 games and the NL East last year, and rode a magic carpet to the World Series. Wilmer Flores even won our hearts with his tears.
The franchise re-signed Yoenis Cespedes, replaced Daniel Murphy with Neil Walker, and looks forward to full seasons from Michael Conforto, Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard. Yowzah, right?
So say most analysts, who've tabbed the Mets as favorites in the striated NL East.
Well. You might want to hold off on ordering those playoff tickets.
The Metropolitans are certainly an enticing squad, particularly on the hill. They should have high expectations. But before you Bobby Valentine all over yourself, let's consider the following:
1. They couldn't hit a lick last year and they have basically the same lineup. Cespedes injected a spark over the last 57 games, but he's not slugging .600 over a full season this year. Their offense has to be giving Terry Collins heartburn.
2. Cespedes is slated to handle center this season, for which he is clearly not equipped. That's a big drop off from Gold Glover Juan Lagares.
3. The Dark Knight is a health risk, having endured TJ surgery in 2014.
4. Zack Wheeler might be back mid-season. I might learn Sanskrit this year.
5. Thor and Steven Matz have yet to pass through the danger zone for pitchers. Research shows that hurlers are most likely to suffer serious injury before age 27; surviving that is evidence of the skill of health.
6. Matz, upon whom one-quarter of high hopes rest, has made all of six Major League starts. They were potent performances, but this is the franchise of Isringhausen, Pulsipher and Wilson.
7. The Nationals made the bookies look like fanboys last season. Maybe they were just conserving their wins for this year.
8. Last year the Mets were upstarts. This year they are favorites. Let's see how they respond.
9. It's baseball: you just never know.
Can the Mets win the division this year? Sure, but so can the Nats and even the Marlins. Without big bats, the boys from Flushing have less margin for error than most partisans recognize.
