"Do you think the Mets will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?"
I've been asked this numerous times by NY fans desperate for a Met-amorphosis for their favorite team.
The answer, Met fans, is: No.
Not no, they will be neither. No, that is not the question.
It is not the question because it is a false dichotomy.
Somehow we have alighted on this bent twig of buyers and sellers, as if any team that is not in the playoff chase this season should simply tear itself down and start all over, like it's undressing for bed.
Sell the Free Agents; Keep the Rest
But the Mets are not the Reds, Tigers or White Sox. It is not true that they are doomed to failure for the foreseeable future unless they completely retool. They do not roster star players whose useful years will have passed by the time they next contend.
The Mets have been slowed not so much by poor play this year or lack of talent as by injury. If they can keep their talent on the field, and particularly on the mound, they are eating at the adult table.
The Mets aren't playing for 2017 anymore. They're hopelessly behind in the standings in both the division and Wild Card chase. So they can punt this season. But they need to strengthen themselves for 2018 when they could be a pennant prospect.
Sure, if they can get anything for Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Neal Walker, Addison Reed and Jay Bruce they should go ahead and flip them. Those players are all free agents after this season. Unfortunately, Walker is hobbled, Granderson's tank is empty and Dudas grow on trees. It's hard to see them receiving anything useful in return. Reed and Bruce might generate some return, though the Sandy Alderson would like to re-sign their sterling set-up man/back-up closer.
The Mets are Not Alone
Those kinds of short-term moves make sense, but only if they help the team win next year. The next division winner might very well include the starting staff now in Queens and plenty of the everyday players on the roster.
There are other teams in this situation. The Pirates and Cardinals have sufficient talent to compete next year, with a few tweaks. Neither should jettison every veteran in uniform, the way the Tigers and Royals absolutely must to avoid a decade of obsolescence. If the Blue Jays, Mariners or Rangers conclude that the curtain has likely fallen on their 2017 act, they also need to tiptoe through the trade season.
The point is, it is not simply a matter of choosing between emptying the farm for a late season surge or dumping the veterans with an eye towards 2021. There are plenty of teams that are good enough to win -- next year -- and should try again with the roster they have now, more or less.
When Theo Epstein took over the Chicago Cubs the bare cupboard allowed him an opportunity to reconfigure the franchise to his liking. Epstein decided to rebuild with hitting and defense, and pick up arms wherever he could. The Cubs drafted everyday players, developed everyday players, hunted internationally for everyday players, and when the time was right, went fishing for pitchers in free agency, low-cost trades and the like.
When you build behind pitching, you're building on a foundation of uncertainly, like a house built on sand. Scouts and seamheads know there's only a little hyperbole in the bromide abbreviated as TINSTAAPP -- there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Banking millions of dollars and a pennant on arms, shoulders, elbows and other appendages withstanding the blunt force trauma of snapping off sliders and cranking up fastballs 90 times a game is a fool's errand.
Ladies and gentleman, I give you the 2017 New York Mets.
Not so much by design as by happenstance, the studs holding up the walls in Queens are all of the hurling variety. Thor, the Dark Knight, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman and Zack Wheeler have all demonstrated ace or near-ace ability, and present as a group the most formidable five starters since at least the '90s Braves.
At the same time, only one star player graces the everyday lineup, Yo, and there are even questions about him. Baseball Prospectus's projection system has the Mets winning the division with the second best run prevention in the league, but also below average offense.
If Terry Collins can coax 130 starts out of his impossible sextet, the hitting might not matter. With continued dominance and newfound health 90 feet from the plate, the Mets could rout the division and claim the NL's best record. That is the formula that drove them to the pennant in 2015, though with a somewhat different crew.
It Isn't Gonna Be That Way
Ah, to dream. Gsellman owns all of eight starts in the Major Leagues. Matz shut it down in mid-August last season. Wheeler's a wreck after post-TJ surgery complications and Harvey looks more like the rabbit than the Knight. That doesn't even account for the prospect of injury every time a previously healthy pitcher like Syndergaard takes the mound.
The betting line on starts by the top six starters is probably in the 110-120 area and betting the over seems foolhardy. The team showed last year they could sneak into the playoffs without the staff intact, but one-and-done isn't any pennant contender's idea of success. Besides, what if the mound arms implode? It could get uglier than a Twitter war with Charles Barkley. The franchise has some good options in a pinch, but not #2-starter types for extended periods.
Fangraphs' projection system says the Mets' pitching staff (including relievers) will produce roughly twice as much WAR as the everyday players. That assumes a full season (143 starts) from the front line. A couple of injuries could easily cost 10 wins of value.
Every team has best and worst case scenarios but the standard deviations on this team are the largest. It wouldn't be shocking for them to knock on the door of 100 wins -- or 84 losses. There really isn't any other team you could say that about at season's start.
