The Highly Uncoveted Mid-Season MVP Awards

You're probably tired of hearing this, but Angels center fielder Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. 

As he's done since his debut, he's playing every day and hitting for a high average, walking with the league leaders, popping lots of extra base hits, stealing bases at high efficiency, running the bases like a dervish and mastering a key defensive position. 

In other words, Mike Trout is among the five or ten best in the world at every aspect of baseball.

This year, Trout is hitting .323/.427/.567 with 18 home runs and 15 of 16 thefts. He paces the Junior Circuit in on-base percentage. Various measuring systems have him leading the AL in WAR, at 5.7. 

Halfway through the season, there's your AL MVP.

That's no slight against other players performing similarly. The Astros' Jose Altuve is a superb second baseman leading the AL in batting average and powering up more than ever. He's swiped 23 of 26 bases. It's a rich compliment to be described as "nearly as great as Mike Trout."

David Ortiz leads the league in slugging and OPS. He's on pace for more than 100 extra bases. What a valedictory season for Big Papi. But he's no asset on the basepaths or in the field, and so no serious candidate for MVP.

Not like Josh Donaldson, the slick-fielding Blue Jays' hot cornerman who has the best case against Trout. At .301/.415/.590 with 22 HR and five of five steals, the only "knock" against his candidacy is positional.

Kudos as well to Orioles third baseman Manny Machado, Red Sox shortstop Xander Boegarts and Mariners keystoner Robinson Cano. All deserve serious consideration for this mythical award that is not coveted in any way.

In the senior circuit it's much more of a muddle. Kris Bryant (.280/.379/.575) is the slick fielding sophomore Cubs third baseman who leads the league in big flies. Washington's Daniel Murphy (.349/.388/.593) is harder to replace at second base, except for below-average glove work. The Rockies' Nolan Arenado (.290/.363/.577) mimics Bryant's profile but adjusting for the high altitude mattes his luster. Matt Carpenter (.298/.420/.568) and solid keystone defense for the Cardinals also has a claim. 

At this point, Bryant has the edge according to WAR, but one hot week from someone else could wipe it out. 

Take your pick, or consider D'backs third baseman Jake Lamb (.298/.371/.615), who leads the league in slugging and extra base hits, but gets some help from Bank One Ballpark. If Lamb is your favorite, your MVP is a guy who didn't even make the All-Star team.

Good thing for all of them Madison Bumgarner only bats every fifth day.

Let's take a look at two fascinating Cy Young races next time.

About That Whole "Cubs Fans Can Dream On" Thing...

You may recall this post back in April. I made a bit of a to-do about the folly of predicting a Cubs playoff appearance. At the risk of quoting that brilliant philosopher, my own personal self, here's what I said at the time:

"...not since 2008, coming off a roaring 97-win season, has hope taken residence so distant from reality."

Right. Well, about that.

See, here's the thing about predictions in baseball: you can be flat wrong about everything and still call the winner. Or you can nail the logic but get foiled by the vagaries of the game. If you placed those two ideas on opposite ends of the street, I'd be standing on the corner of Well-reasoned and Wrong.

The point of that article was that the Cubs were coming off an 89-loss season even while many of their young players; think Jake Arrieta, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Hendrick and Starlin Castro; had already blossomed. Despite the addition of Jon Lester and Dexter Fowler; not to mention manager Joe Maddon; and the imminent arrival of Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and that group; it seemed wise to counsel patience. Rookies not named Vida, Fernando, or The Bird don't generally rocket to success immediately. Some veteran acquisitions don't pan out. Sophomores often stumble following promising freshman seasons. And empty rosters don't unempty themselves just because a couple of newbies join the ranks.

So what happened? All the touted met their tout line, plus 235 pounds of Kyle Schwarber arrived mashing. Jake Arrieta got in touch with his inner Superman. None of the top four starters missed a start. Lester and Fowler played as advertised. The squad served as windshield to the injury bug. New manager Joe Maddon thrilled everyone and the team emerged victorious 97 times plus change in the playoffs.

The point is, that post was right. It was unreasonable to expect the Cubs to blossom all at once, maintain the gains of the previous season and enjoy the fruits of veteran labor without some setbacks. That can happen, it does, and it did. But that's not the way to bet.

The stories were similar in Flushing, Houston and Minnesota, which is why I wasn't too sanguine on any of those teams' chances. The Nationals and Angels are more talented than all of those teams, but sometimes, it's more important how much lightning is in the bottle than how much talent. And nowhere was that more obvious than with the Cubs.

The Rookie of the Year Award Isn't About Jake Arrieta

The baseball world is making strides. Local broadcasts show players' OBP and OPS. Most Valuable Player discussions regularly invoke WAR. WHIP and fielding independent measures pepper Cy Young debates. These advanced metrics -- (if you can call them that: OBP and SLG are as old as Yogi Berra, though they didn't storm the shores of Normandy) -- aren't the final word, but they're superior to the old standard of BA-HR-RBI and W-L, ERA.)

It's been gratifying to see that most fans and reporters have begun to digest the argument that a player's value has little to do with his teammates' performance. Unless his world craters in the last 15 games, Bryce Harper will win the MVP award he deserves in a rout, despite the Nationals' 2015 face plant.

Some of the credit for this belongs to MLB itself, which has embraced the new analysis and all the fun tools like Statcast and PitchFX. Articles on MLB.com are replete with references to True Average, WAR, BABIP, FIP and myriad other helpful measuring tools.

Simultaneously though, we're backsliding on that notion in other bailiwicks. Much of the Heisman discussion over the past five years has centered on the best team's best player, rather than on simply college football's standout performer.

Along those lines, I commend to your attention this article from Sports On Earth, a generally excellent site with lots of good insight. In it, the writer suggests that candidacies for the Rookie of the Year award waxed and waned based on team fortunes. We've seen this illogic before.

There is utterly no justification to holding an individual baseball player responsible for the performance of his 24 teammates. Moreover, while some retrograde writers still cower behind the "valuable" nomenclature of the MVP award to denigrate the candidacies of great players on non-contenders, there is no such fig leaf in the Rookie of the Year award. It is simply a measure of the first-year player who has had the best season. Period.

Kris Bryant is almost surely the 2015 NL Rookie of the Year, not withstanding the final 15 games. He's posted a .317 True Average at the plate, defended third base reasonably well and contributed five wins to his team, the best of the freshman lot. That his team will make the playoffs is absolutely, completely and undoubtedly irrelevant.

The Bonanza of Breakout Stars

Remember the kerfuffle over Kris Bryant's demotion to Triple-A for two weeks to start the season and stay his service clock? That move has devastated his performance so that he leads Major League rookies in plate appearances and WAR, and is hitting for a .319 True Average.

Oh, the humanity!

And though Bryant is the leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate, you've probably noticed that he isn't alone among breakout stars this year. Indeed, we've seen a bonanza of first-year players in 2015. Fifty-one rookies are on pace to earn a win above replacement this season, with 38 of them already there. That compares to 33 all last year.

Twenty rookies are on pace for two WAR, compared to 13 last year. Two WAR is roughly what a player needs over a full season to start at his position. Consider that many of these newbies have not played a full season, yet will achieve starter-quality status.

Take keystoner Enrique Hernandez, who has cracked the gunslinging Dodger lineup for 190 plate appearances and a .305/.349/.500 performance. If he plays effectively full-time through the end of the regular season, he'll earn more than three WAR in just 380 plate appearances. That's All-Star quality.

And maybe most telling to the untrained eye, eight of the top rookies by WAR toil for playoff contenders -- Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, Astros, Cubs, Blue Jays, Twins. You're hearing their names because they are having a real impact on pennant races (and because several of them were named to the All-Star team.) (Their names are: Bryant, Matt Duffy, Jung-ho Kang, Randall Grichuk, Carlos Correa, Kyle Schwarber, Devon Travis and Trevor May.)

And that doesn't include some mid-season call-ups torching the league the first time through -- Michael Conforto and Sean Gilmartin of the Mets, Miguel Sano of the Twins and Stephen Piscotty of St. Louis, to name four.

Beyond that, these are no Bob Hamelins or Scott Williamsons, whose career path headed roughly straight down from their Rookie-of-the-Year seasons. Correa is already being called the best shortstop in the game. Bryant, Schwarber, L.A.'s Joc Pederson, the Phils' Maikel Franco, the Blue Jays' Roberto Osuna and the Mets' Noah Syndergaard are considered future stars.

All this helps explain why the standings are upside down, with Houston, New York and Kansas City near the top and Oakland, Washington and Boston scuffling. It's been a magical regular season and we can thank a gaggle of guys with short resumes for part of that.

The Cubs in the Playoffs? Get Over It

If hope springs eternal, it springs relentlessly in Chicago, especially in the Spring. And not since 2008, coming off a roaring 97-win season, has hope taken residence so distant from reality.

Over the last five years, the baby bears have averaged 93 losses and a fifth place NL Central finish while they weaned their young on the farm. Discerning observers could see a plan in action and wisely counseled patience, which began to pay off last season.

In their fourth seasons, Anthony Rizzo bloomed to a 10th place MVP placement. Jake Arietta shoved a 2.51 ERA down NL throats by fanning a batter-plus an inning and hardly walking any.  And flashy shortstop Starlin Castro recovered his hitting shoes. Rookie Kyle Hendrick bamboozled NL hitters to a 2.46 ERA in 13 starts. Journeyman Hector Rondon shook off elbow woes to claim the closer position with authority. And mega-prospects Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell were knocking on the door. So when management indicated rebuilding's end by enticing Jon Lester to deal aces and Dexter Fowler to patrol center, Chi-town hearts started fluttering.  PECOTA forecasts them for 85 wins and many pundits have them snagging a Wild Card, or even a division.

And because everyone loves the Cubs, largely because no one has had to fear them since 1908, the bandwagon has grown.

But as the great philosopher, Quick Draw McGraw, used to say, "Now hoooooold on thar, Baba Looey!"

The Cubs are still on the right path and their time might indeed be nigh. But nigh is at low tide, not yet high. They're coming off an 89-loss season despite those lofty positives. Several of last year's performances were career outliers and will require confirmation before we can trust them. The rotation is thin after the first five and the bench is bare after Tommy LaStella and some catching depth. The big call-ups, like Soler, could flame out just as easily as they could catch fire. Teams relying on big years from freshmen are playing with fire themselves.

The Cubs will be improved, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. A couple of the veterans won't live up to billing. Some of the newbies won't even make the show. (There's a reason clubs send uber-prospects back to Triple-AAA , and it's almost never to save a few rubles.) The roster is still shallow and the learning curve is steep.

Cub fans, enjoy this one, but wait 'til next year.

The Bryant Kerfuffle: A Shakespearean Tale

In the absence of baseball news, there brews a tempest in a teapot about Cubs prospect Kris Bryant. Bryant is the Cubs' third baseman of the future, a future that by all accounts should start on Opening Day.

Instead, Bryant will toil in Triple-A for two weeks so that his service time clock isn't wound and ticking. That will allow Chicago brass to dictate his wages for one extra year and delay his eventual free agency likewise. 

Prompting Twitter to go all a-twitter. This is emblematic:






Yeah, sure you will. Until they make the playoffs, and then you'll forget that Kris Bryant only made 146 starts instead of 153 back in '15.

The Cubs are simply exploiting a quirk in service time rules that makes this kind of gerrymandering not just possible but wise. Not just wise but unimpeachable. Not just unimpeachable but obvious. Losing 10 games of a rookie's contributions will save the team millions of dollars over time if he lives up to expectations. 

Many have brayed a similar donkey call about the MLBPA. Who do they think negotiated the rules that made this move necessary? It's called collective bargaining because the two sides do it together.

This dust-up is magnified by Bryant's cartoonish Spring Training. He has popped more in-game dingers than the Florida Marlins and has authored a 25-at-bat line of .480/.552/1.520, including one gargantuan long ball against King Felix Hernandez. 

But none of that alters the reality with which the Cubs have to deal, and that is that 12 days of banishment keeps their phenom on the team through 2021.

Perhaps the best final word comes from the Astros' George Springer, who was last Spring's Kris Bryant, until the season began and he commenced to fan like a deck of cards.