There's a new general manager in Oakland. He is Not-Billy Beane.
The actual Beane, he of Moneyball fame, the first of the sabermetric-inclined GMs; the savant whose early trades humiliated his trade partners; the first to recognize the power of on-base percentage, the fungibility of closers and the real value of managers; the ex-prospect who assembled one playoff team after another without a payroll, a stadium or a fan base; that Billy Beane would never swap a young stud like Yoenis Cespedes for a two-month pitching rental, even of the Jon Lester variety.
That Billy Beane takes the long view, cobbles offensive machines out of platoons and role players, inks low-cost, high-value free agents and recycles young arms. He wins division after division after division -- seven playoff teams in the last 14 years.
And then -- disappointment. His teams have succumbed in the division series six times, each of them in the final game. In several of those series the A's led two games to none and then got swept. And in the one league championship series of Beane's reign, the A's were tomahawked out without a win.
Beane famously said "my shit doesn't work in the playoffs," and yesterday Not-Billy Beane went about proving that he believed it. Blessed with his best team in years, a squad leading baseball in runs scored, fewest runs allowed and the best record in the game, Not-Billy Beane did what Billy Beane would never do.
First, a month ago, he swapped a pair of promising minor leaguers for two good but not great Cubs' pitchers. Then yesterday he relinquished his five-tool outfielder for a two-month Jon Lester rental.
Except it's not the two months that Not-Billy Beane needs Lester for. The A's know perfectly well how to win in August and September without high-cost rentals like Jon Lester whom Oakland will never be able to re-sign.
Not-Billy signed Lester for the 19 games of October that really count. Not-Billy realizes that all there is no finger hardware for division titles. There are no t-shirt sales proclaiming the team Division Champions. No documentaries, no parades and no delirium in the streets. They require a World Championship.
So Not-Billy brought in Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija to supplement Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir for those five- and seven-game series that have formed the bulwark against Beane's World Series quest. Come Games Three and Four of the ALDS, Beane won't be outmatched on the mound against anyone. The same thing in Games Four through Seven of the ALCS and World Series.
Over the years, we've seen Billy Beane change his strategy numerous time from focusing on OBP to defense to BABIP en route to accomplishments well beyond his revenue stream. Today we're seeing Beane change his fundamental principles. We'll find out soon whether Not-Billy Beane fares any better.
Showing posts with label Jeff Samardzija. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeff Samardzija. Show all posts
06 July 2014
Balls and Strikes Around the Midpoint
After a nice start, the Rockies have dropped 36 of their last 50 contests. That's the worst 50-game stretch in team history.
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The Dodgers' Dee Gordon has stolen more bases (41) so far in 2014 than eight whole teams. The Red Sox have swiped just 27, and run into outs twice as many times (18) as Gordon.
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The bold A's-Cubs trade featuring Chicago's top two pitchers and Oakland's top two prospects tells us two things: Oakland is all in to win the World Series in 2014 and the Cubs have no intention of contending in 2015. Billy Beane has accomplished everything but a championship run in his career and the window is the widest open it will ever be, particularly with New York, Boston, Tampa Bay and Texas all shadows of their former selves.
In Chicago, it's the third straight year they've swapped their top two starters (remember Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Scott Feldman and Matt Garza) for a minor league traffic jam that has already yielded Jake Arrieta. But Jed Hoyer & Theo Epstein know that when the Cubs are ready to compete they'll need some reliable veterans as bulwark for the roster, so the fact that they've moved Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammels means next year isn't "when."
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In 13 starts, Clayton Kershaw has walked 12 batters and fanned 115. And pitched a perfect game. And saved money on razors. In case you're wondering if he's any good.
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The Padres lag the Majors in runs scored with 259, but have tallied eight or more five times. Those five games account for more than one-sixth of their season's scoring.
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More on Padre batting futility: six of their starters are hitting below .220 and their top slugger (Seth Smith) is on pace for 17 homers and 50 RBI.
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Baltimore's Chris Davis busted out to 53 jacks and 1.004 OPS last year. So far in 2014, he's at 13 and .705, weighed down by a .201 batting average. Credit the popularity of the shift. On balls the lefty slugger pulled last season, he batted .468 and slugged .937. This season: .271/.608. On balls up the middle: last year, .416/.964; this year, .348/.609. (He's batting and slugging zero on his strikeouts, which are numerous.) Shifts can be beaten but evidently not by him, at least not yet.
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The last time neither the Yankees nor Red Sox was above .500 on Independence Day, the Dow stood at 3,000, Prince Charles and Princess Diana separated, and Euro Disney opened in Paris. And the Blue Jays won the World Series.
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Nelson Cruz is the best visiting hitter in Fenway Park's 102-year history, slugging .400/.457/.726 in 105 plate appearances. Imagine how good he'd be if he were still taking drugs.
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The Royals have hit 50 home runs, on pace for 91. The Blue Jays have already crushed 113. That explains why Toronto is five games over .500 and Kansas City just four.
----------------------------
The Dodgers' Dee Gordon has stolen more bases (41) so far in 2014 than eight whole teams. The Red Sox have swiped just 27, and run into outs twice as many times (18) as Gordon.
----------------------------
The bold A's-Cubs trade featuring Chicago's top two pitchers and Oakland's top two prospects tells us two things: Oakland is all in to win the World Series in 2014 and the Cubs have no intention of contending in 2015. Billy Beane has accomplished everything but a championship run in his career and the window is the widest open it will ever be, particularly with New York, Boston, Tampa Bay and Texas all shadows of their former selves.
In Chicago, it's the third straight year they've swapped their top two starters (remember Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Scott Feldman and Matt Garza) for a minor league traffic jam that has already yielded Jake Arrieta. But Jed Hoyer & Theo Epstein know that when the Cubs are ready to compete they'll need some reliable veterans as bulwark for the roster, so the fact that they've moved Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammels means next year isn't "when."
----------------------------
In 13 starts, Clayton Kershaw has walked 12 batters and fanned 115. And pitched a perfect game. And saved money on razors. In case you're wondering if he's any good.
----------------------------
The Padres lag the Majors in runs scored with 259, but have tallied eight or more five times. Those five games account for more than one-sixth of their season's scoring.
----------------------------
More on Padre batting futility: six of their starters are hitting below .220 and their top slugger (Seth Smith) is on pace for 17 homers and 50 RBI.
----------------------------
Baltimore's Chris Davis busted out to 53 jacks and 1.004 OPS last year. So far in 2014, he's at 13 and .705, weighed down by a .201 batting average. Credit the popularity of the shift. On balls the lefty slugger pulled last season, he batted .468 and slugged .937. This season: .271/.608. On balls up the middle: last year, .416/.964; this year, .348/.609. (He's batting and slugging zero on his strikeouts, which are numerous.) Shifts can be beaten but evidently not by him, at least not yet.
----------------------------
The last time neither the Yankees nor Red Sox was above .500 on Independence Day, the Dow stood at 3,000, Prince Charles and Princess Diana separated, and Euro Disney opened in Paris. And the Blue Jays won the World Series.
----------------------------
Nelson Cruz is the best visiting hitter in Fenway Park's 102-year history, slugging .400/.457/.726 in 105 plate appearances. Imagine how good he'd be if he were still taking drugs.
----------------------------
The Royals have hit 50 home runs, on pace for 91. The Blue Jays have already crushed 113. That explains why Toronto is five games over .500 and Kansas City just four.
03 June 2014
Getting Rougned Up By Unwritten Rules
With a .730 OPS, Rangers’ rookie second baseman Rougned
Odor (pronounced: Roog-ned. No kidding.) is the greatest “Rougned” in baseball history. He’s also the greatest
“odor” since Willie Stargell brought air fresheners into the Pirates clubhouse
in 1979.
Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion not only tied the record for homers in May with 16, he also did a little Joe DiMaggio imitation, fanning just 14 times. David Lough laid down a similar stat line, except the first number represents hits. (Kidding: Lough doesn’t hit that well.)
Twins’ Phil Hughes has blossomed since leaving the Bronx. He pitched six starts without a walk before offering a pair against the Yankees in a June 1 win. That pumped his record to 6-1, 3.12 with 56 K/8 BB. And now he’s even got a win in the Bronx under his belt.
“Unwritten rules apply to the other team.” –Eric Karros, in an exalted Zen state.
For the third time in his career, Adam Wainwright leads the league in wins, and that doesn’t even include his 20-win season. Pitcher wins don’t mean much, but they don’t mean nothing. In his case, a lifetime 107-60 record reflects the fact that he’s an effective workhorse, with a lifetime 3.07 ERA. The only thing keeping him from a Hall path is a late start to his career and TJ surgery that robbed him of 2011 and limited his effectiveness in 2012.
Still in the “pitcher wins don’t mean nothing” meme, Toronto’s Mark Buerhle leads the AL with a 10-1 record, notching his 14th straight 10+ win season. All but once he won at least 12. Soft-tossing Buerhle is also vying for his 14th straight 200+ inning season. At his current rate – which is unsustainable, particularly because he’s allowed just two home runs despite just five whiffs per game – he’ll finish 27-3, 2.33 in 220 innings and all of 129 strikeouts. I’d like to see it.
On the other hand, Jeff Samardzija leads the Majors with a 1.68 ERA for the Cubs, but it took him 11 starts to get his first win. Just putting pitcher wins in perspective.
Charlie Blackmon update: Still hitting .313 with some power, but it’s a mirage at this point. It’s Colorado-fueled (OPS 500 points lower on the road) and mostly the legacy of a .374/.418/.616 April. Blackmon looks like a big lefty who can hit for decent average and occasional pop, and play anywhere in the outfield. And he rocks a sharp beard.
June 22 is Coco Crisp Garden Gnome day at the O.Co Coliseum. Tickets are plentiful. (C'mon, have you seen that sewer of a stadium?)
Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion not only tied the record for homers in May with 16, he also did a little Joe DiMaggio imitation, fanning just 14 times. David Lough laid down a similar stat line, except the first number represents hits. (Kidding: Lough doesn’t hit that well.)
Twins’ Phil Hughes has blossomed since leaving the Bronx. He pitched six starts without a walk before offering a pair against the Yankees in a June 1 win. That pumped his record to 6-1, 3.12 with 56 K/8 BB. And now he’s even got a win in the Bronx under his belt.
“Unwritten rules apply to the other team.” –Eric Karros, in an exalted Zen state.
For the third time in his career, Adam Wainwright leads the league in wins, and that doesn’t even include his 20-win season. Pitcher wins don’t mean much, but they don’t mean nothing. In his case, a lifetime 107-60 record reflects the fact that he’s an effective workhorse, with a lifetime 3.07 ERA. The only thing keeping him from a Hall path is a late start to his career and TJ surgery that robbed him of 2011 and limited his effectiveness in 2012.
Still in the “pitcher wins don’t mean nothing” meme, Toronto’s Mark Buerhle leads the AL with a 10-1 record, notching his 14th straight 10+ win season. All but once he won at least 12. Soft-tossing Buerhle is also vying for his 14th straight 200+ inning season. At his current rate – which is unsustainable, particularly because he’s allowed just two home runs despite just five whiffs per game – he’ll finish 27-3, 2.33 in 220 innings and all of 129 strikeouts. I’d like to see it.
On the other hand, Jeff Samardzija leads the Majors with a 1.68 ERA for the Cubs, but it took him 11 starts to get his first win. Just putting pitcher wins in perspective.
Charlie Blackmon update: Still hitting .313 with some power, but it’s a mirage at this point. It’s Colorado-fueled (OPS 500 points lower on the road) and mostly the legacy of a .374/.418/.616 April. Blackmon looks like a big lefty who can hit for decent average and occasional pop, and play anywhere in the outfield. And he rocks a sharp beard.
June 22 is Coco Crisp Garden Gnome day at the O.Co Coliseum. Tickets are plentiful. (C'mon, have you seen that sewer of a stadium?)
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