Ask yourself if this sounds like a familiar strategy: Just sign all the best players without much concern for their cost. Figure out where they'll play and how they'll fit together later. Treat the luxury tax like a flea bite. And if the new mates stiffen up, just accumulate more high-priced free agents.
If you're thinking that's the Yankees, you're off by about 300 miles. This appears to be the new strategy of the Sons of New England, stung by their last place finish in 2014.
Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez were the two most accomplished everyday players on the market this winter. Although the Red Sox' primary need is starting pitching -- Rubby De La Rosa is their #2 starter -- they committed themselves to five years and $205 million for a pair of injury-inclined infielders not likely to age well or deliver much defense going forward.
What Does $205 Million Buy?
Sandoval is a .294 lifetime hitter with 15-20 home run power and a surprisingly facile glove given his spherical shape. The Sox get his age 28-32 years, so the odds are reasonable that his glove will play at third for the length of the contract, as long as his body holds up. The Panda played 157 games this past season, but made extended excursions to the DL in 2011 and 2012 and sports a body type that doesn't necessarily inspire confidence.
Ramirez is an even tougher nut to crack. While he profiles as a superior hitter than Sandoval, HanRam is two years older, rickety (93 games/year since 2011) and sure to be moved, mercifully, from shortstop. Whether he can comfortably handle a corner outfield slot is a matter of conjecture.
Perchance, To Dream
Of course, there's plenty of upside on these signings. Sandoval solidifies the hot corner, Ramirez stays healthier in left than at short and teams up with Yoenis Cespedes and youngster Mookie Betts for a dynamic outer pasture. Both new acquisitions swat more big flies in comfy Fenway.
And then, luxury tax be damned, GM Ben Cherrington nabs Max Sherzer and/or Jon Lester and/or James Shields and/or Hiroki Kuroda to flesh out the rotation and put Boston back in the playoff hunt in 2015.
Underlying these plans is one critical concept: money is just a counting stat. The best strategy for regular-season success is to put the best players on the field. That appears to be the Red Sox' new strategy. Meanwhile, the Yankees are silently racing headlong beneath the salary cap.
Showing posts with label Hanley Ramirez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hanley Ramirez. Show all posts
27 November 2014
21 September 2013
Swinging Bunts and Bloop Hits
Miracle on 161st Street
More on this in a full post, but if Joe Girardi isn't AL manager of the year then I'm Barry Manilow. He's taken an ever-changing replacement-player roster to contention and done it without a hint of rancor or complaint. He's incorporated the Alex Rodriguez Traveling Circus into the family with beneficial results. And he's had to have The Talk with a parade of .196 hitters whose 15 minutes in pinstripes has ended.
All that and his ace has gone half-joker. If this team were challenging Toronto for the cellar, no one would blame them.
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Dodgers Make A Splash
Did I miss the memo on pool parties? Is that another unwritten rule that you're just supposed to intuit? Man, I can't keep track. I always thought that celebrating in a pool was a great idea.
What's the unwritten rule on calling opponents classless? Someone ask Willie Bloomquist. What's the unwritten rule on politicians who can't get anything done in Washington commenting on the baseball team celebrations? I think "shut up" is the rule, John McCain, but I don't know because it's unwritten.
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Star Bucs
A yearlong fear: The Pirates have a spectacular season but run out of steam -- as young, inexperienced teams often do -- in the last 10 or 20 games. They fall into the Wild Card and lose the one-game play-in. Six months of developing goodwill disappears in nine innings. It feels like another "Wait 'til Next Year" scenario in Pittsburgh.
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Yasiel Who?
More on the MVP races in a full post, but consider this couldabeen: In exactly half a season of work, Hanley Ramirez is hitting .351/.403/.656 with 20 homers and 10 steals from the shortstop position. He's playing some of the best defense of his career and has been worth 5.6 wins for the Dodgers. In half a season.
The last player to post 11.2+ wins against replacement without taking drugs*? Pedro Martinez 13 years ago. The last everyday player? Yaz in '67.
*As far as we know.
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New Joba Rules
At $2 or $3 million in his last year of arbitration, it's hard to see Joba Chamberlain sticking with the Yankees in 2014. He's regressed as a pitcher, walking 5.4 per nine innings and contributing replacement value the last two years. His home run rate has risen each year but one to an unsustainable 1.7 per nine innings. At this point he's little more than a middle-inning mop-up guy. For the suddenly cost-conscious Yankees, that may not play.
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#Quitchacussing
Issues Brandon Phillips shouldn't comment on publicly: chemical weapons in Syria, Russia's crackdown on gays, possible implications of the Affordable Care Act, his .310 on-base percentage. You want to shut up the Enquirer writer, Brandon? Get on base more.
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Cashnering In
After closing at TCU and 93 MLB games as a reliever, Andrew Cashner may be emerging as a rotation ace this season. At 10-8, 3.21 for the Padres, the bearded one has hurled five straight games of at least seven frames relinquishing two earned runs or fewer. Scouts believed Cashner had the best stuff of college pitchers in the 2008 draft.
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Flipping the Script
The Red Sox are just the fourth team all-time to win 93+ games the year after losing 93+ games. With two more victories, the Indians will become the fifth.
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Playoff Odd In yesterday's post, these were the quoted AL playoff odds from Baseball Prospectus:
Tampa Bay 70%
Texas 67%
Cleveland 49%
Baltimore 9%
KC 4%
New York 1%
Just to give you an idea how fluid these ratings are, consider them one game later:
Tampa Bay 78%
Cleveland 60%Texas 50%
KC 6%
Baltimore 4%
New York 2%
It does call into question how a team can plummet from highly likely to a toss-up after one loss, as the Rangers supposedly did. These playoff odds remind me a bit of five-day weather forecasts. Follow the fifth day forecast over the week and you'll see it change daily before ultimately missing the mark.
More on this in a full post, but if Joe Girardi isn't AL manager of the year then I'm Barry Manilow. He's taken an ever-changing replacement-player roster to contention and done it without a hint of rancor or complaint. He's incorporated the Alex Rodriguez Traveling Circus into the family with beneficial results. And he's had to have The Talk with a parade of .196 hitters whose 15 minutes in pinstripes has ended.
All that and his ace has gone half-joker. If this team were challenging Toronto for the cellar, no one would blame them.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dodgers Make A Splash
Did I miss the memo on pool parties? Is that another unwritten rule that you're just supposed to intuit? Man, I can't keep track. I always thought that celebrating in a pool was a great idea.
What's the unwritten rule on calling opponents classless? Someone ask Willie Bloomquist. What's the unwritten rule on politicians who can't get anything done in Washington commenting on the baseball team celebrations? I think "shut up" is the rule, John McCain, but I don't know because it's unwritten.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Star Bucs
A yearlong fear: The Pirates have a spectacular season but run out of steam -- as young, inexperienced teams often do -- in the last 10 or 20 games. They fall into the Wild Card and lose the one-game play-in. Six months of developing goodwill disappears in nine innings. It feels like another "Wait 'til Next Year" scenario in Pittsburgh.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yasiel Who?
More on the MVP races in a full post, but consider this couldabeen: In exactly half a season of work, Hanley Ramirez is hitting .351/.403/.656 with 20 homers and 10 steals from the shortstop position. He's playing some of the best defense of his career and has been worth 5.6 wins for the Dodgers. In half a season.
The last player to post 11.2+ wins against replacement without taking drugs*? Pedro Martinez 13 years ago. The last everyday player? Yaz in '67.
*As far as we know.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Joba Rules
At $2 or $3 million in his last year of arbitration, it's hard to see Joba Chamberlain sticking with the Yankees in 2014. He's regressed as a pitcher, walking 5.4 per nine innings and contributing replacement value the last two years. His home run rate has risen each year but one to an unsustainable 1.7 per nine innings. At this point he's little more than a middle-inning mop-up guy. For the suddenly cost-conscious Yankees, that may not play.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#Quitchacussing
Issues Brandon Phillips shouldn't comment on publicly: chemical weapons in Syria, Russia's crackdown on gays, possible implications of the Affordable Care Act, his .310 on-base percentage. You want to shut up the Enquirer writer, Brandon? Get on base more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cashnering In
After closing at TCU and 93 MLB games as a reliever, Andrew Cashner may be emerging as a rotation ace this season. At 10-8, 3.21 for the Padres, the bearded one has hurled five straight games of at least seven frames relinquishing two earned runs or fewer. Scouts believed Cashner had the best stuff of college pitchers in the 2008 draft.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Flipping the Script
The Red Sox are just the fourth team all-time to win 93+ games the year after losing 93+ games. With two more victories, the Indians will become the fifth.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Playoff Odd In yesterday's post, these were the quoted AL playoff odds from Baseball Prospectus:
Tampa Bay 70%
Texas 67%
Cleveland 49%
Baltimore 9%
KC 4%
New York 1%
Just to give you an idea how fluid these ratings are, consider them one game later:
Tampa Bay 78%
Cleveland 60%Texas 50%
KC 6%
Baltimore 4%
New York 2%
It does call into question how a team can plummet from highly likely to a toss-up after one loss, as the Rangers supposedly did. These playoff odds remind me a bit of five-day weather forecasts. Follow the fifth day forecast over the week and you'll see it change daily before ultimately missing the mark.
11 February 2013
A Smoaking Gun and Other Stories
At the risk of putting too fine a point on a previous post -- aw hell, there's no risk: we're going to shave the nub to within a millimeter of its life -- Baseball Prospectus released their projections for MLB players today and here's what the Tarot cards suggest for Justin Smoak:
.224/.313/.371 with 14 HR in 470 plate appearances for the Mariners this season. With weak baserunning and slightly below average defense, Smoak grades out essentially to replacement-level at first base, even after factoring in the park he plays in.
In other words, you can pick up any old Tom, Dick or Justin Smoak off the waiver wire and expect about the same production.
Add in the missing 150 plate appearances, which suggest either an injury or a demotion; in either case his contribution during those 30 games is zero.
By comparison, to which the previous post alludes, Matt Wieters's forecast comes in at .259/.330/.422 with 19 HR in 588 plate appearances while dinging him slightly on defense behind the plate. Wieters is worth a pair of wins against replacement in this forecast, which makes him a solid regular but not a star.
These are projections, not predictions, so even if Smoak breaks out and Wieters breaks down, the system can't be said to be "wrong." (In fact, the system includes the odds of breakout and collapse as well, but the math is obtuse.) It just means that players who have performed the way these two have at their ages in the past have tended to perform like the projection going forward.
According to BP's projection system, the top 10 players offensively in 2013 will be:
It's also interesting to see the system projecting a return to stardom for Hanley Ramirez, whom it ranks as the 21st best offensive player. That is based on the Dodgers leaving him at short and giving Dee Gordon the seasoning he needs in Albuquerque.
The system also sees a return to relevance for newly shorn Tim Lincecum with a 3.10 ERA in 174 innings and a return to normalcy for Gio Gonzalez with a 3.67 ERA and the same value to his team as Milwaukee's Mike Fiers.
As for the unprojectable R.A. Dickey? Canada won't want to hear this. The system sees a 38-year-old moving to a tough division in the tougher league and projects 224 innings of a 4.41 ERA with a below .500 record. But then, R.A.'s beaten the odds before.
This is the kind of conjecture we have at our disposal as pitchers and catchers loosen up in Florida and Arizona.
.224/.313/.371 with 14 HR in 470 plate appearances for the Mariners this season. With weak baserunning and slightly below average defense, Smoak grades out essentially to replacement-level at first base, even after factoring in the park he plays in.
In other words, you can pick up any old Tom, Dick or Justin Smoak off the waiver wire and expect about the same production.
Add in the missing 150 plate appearances, which suggest either an injury or a demotion; in either case his contribution during those 30 games is zero.
By comparison, to which the previous post alludes, Matt Wieters's forecast comes in at .259/.330/.422 with 19 HR in 588 plate appearances while dinging him slightly on defense behind the plate. Wieters is worth a pair of wins against replacement in this forecast, which makes him a solid regular but not a star.
These are projections, not predictions, so even if Smoak breaks out and Wieters breaks down, the system can't be said to be "wrong." (In fact, the system includes the odds of breakout and collapse as well, but the math is obtuse.) It just means that players who have performed the way these two have at their ages in the past have tended to perform like the projection going forward.
According to BP's projection system, the top 10 players offensively in 2013 will be:
- Albert Pujols
- Joey Votto
- Ryan Braun
- Miguel Cabrera
- Mike Trout
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Andrew McCutcheon
- Robinson Cano
It's also interesting to see the system projecting a return to stardom for Hanley Ramirez, whom it ranks as the 21st best offensive player. That is based on the Dodgers leaving him at short and giving Dee Gordon the seasoning he needs in Albuquerque.
The system also sees a return to relevance for newly shorn Tim Lincecum with a 3.10 ERA in 174 innings and a return to normalcy for Gio Gonzalez with a 3.67 ERA and the same value to his team as Milwaukee's Mike Fiers.
As for the unprojectable R.A. Dickey? Canada won't want to hear this. The system sees a 38-year-old moving to a tough division in the tougher league and projects 224 innings of a 4.41 ERA with a below .500 record. But then, R.A.'s beaten the odds before.
This is the kind of conjecture we have at our disposal as pitchers and catchers loosen up in Florida and Arizona.
20 January 2013
Hey, They Listened to Me!
Last installment of the Look Back trilogy on posts during the 2012 baseball season that either left the yard or whiffed.
This June 26 post suggesting the Mets should eject their most powerful booster rocket engendered some indignant emails. Ha! Take that indignant emailers! Not only was it right, the Mets took the advice and traded R.A. Dickey while his value was high.
Where the post went wrong was in suggesting that Dickey couldn't possibly keep up his first half heroics. Technically speaking, that was true: everything about R.A. Dickey is an impossibility, and yet the 38-year-old fireballing Scroogie artist manages to astonish us anew every fifth day. Only now he'll do it for Toronto while the Mets develop C Travis d’Arnaud, and RHP Noah Syndergaard.
This report of the Phillies' death as contender was not exaggerated. Nor was it premature. The core of the team in 2012 was crippled, two of the triumvirate of pitchers expected to provide ballast came up short and the franchise is left betwixt and between -- neither a contender nor a rebuilder.
This fact was underscored by the assertion in the aforementioned post that the Phils had to make a run at a pennant in 2013 given the boatload of investments in their expensive and aging core. That was followed five months later with this post, which flambe'd GM Ruben Amaro for signing another aging veteran when he should be punting the season.
Ding this blog for being inconsistent and the Phillies for being in no-man's land. Their only hope is that Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Young and Halladay have one last burst in them, like a Phoenix, or a bag of microwave popcorn.
Finally, on a romp through the Majors at around the three-quarter pole of the season came three notable assertions that rang the distant echoes of Meat Loaf. Two out of three ain't bad.
First the losing proposition: that Mike Trout and Andrew McCutcheon seemed MVP locks, not withstanding complete collapses. Well, McCutcheon and his locks collapsed nearly completely in the second half while his Pirates skittered into the record books on the futility side. Trout continued to amaze, as did the baseball writers who picked the wrong guy -- by a country mile -- for the award.
On the other hand, the same post suggested the Dodgers should find a new home for Hanley Ramirez after a .330/.392/.549 performance and good behavior in 23 games following his trade from Miami. Put this way:
Now if the Dodgers are smart, they'll flip Hanley's re-motivated self to another club while his value remains spiked and let his next sulk come at someone else's expense.
Ah, but they held on in the vain hope that he could help them slip into the playoffs. Instead, a .268/.305/.375 September drained most of his trade value and for the second time in five years an uninterested "Ramirez" will plague the Dodger roster at high cost.
Carl Crawford, however, did listen, just from the other end of the country. Attempting to play through the lost Red Sox season with a torn left (throwing) elbow tendon, Crawford finally heeded the same post, which urged him to bag the season and accede to Tommy John surgery the next day. Nearly the next day . . . Crawford was packaged up with Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto to the Dodgers, whereupon he went straight into the operating room. With eight months to heal, Crawford is expected to be ready for Opening Day.
We all will be. See you there with a new batch of provocations, some of which will even be right.
This June 26 post suggesting the Mets should eject their most powerful booster rocket engendered some indignant emails. Ha! Take that indignant emailers! Not only was it right, the Mets took the advice and traded R.A. Dickey while his value was high.
Where the post went wrong was in suggesting that Dickey couldn't possibly keep up his first half heroics. Technically speaking, that was true: everything about R.A. Dickey is an impossibility, and yet the 38-year-old fireballing Scroogie artist manages to astonish us anew every fifth day. Only now he'll do it for Toronto while the Mets develop C Travis d’Arnaud, and RHP Noah Syndergaard.
This report of the Phillies' death as contender was not exaggerated. Nor was it premature. The core of the team in 2012 was crippled, two of the triumvirate of pitchers expected to provide ballast came up short and the franchise is left betwixt and between -- neither a contender nor a rebuilder.
This fact was underscored by the assertion in the aforementioned post that the Phils had to make a run at a pennant in 2013 given the boatload of investments in their expensive and aging core. That was followed five months later with this post, which flambe'd GM Ruben Amaro for signing another aging veteran when he should be punting the season.
Ding this blog for being inconsistent and the Phillies for being in no-man's land. Their only hope is that Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Young and Halladay have one last burst in them, like a Phoenix, or a bag of microwave popcorn.
Finally, on a romp through the Majors at around the three-quarter pole of the season came three notable assertions that rang the distant echoes of Meat Loaf. Two out of three ain't bad.
First the losing proposition: that Mike Trout and Andrew McCutcheon seemed MVP locks, not withstanding complete collapses. Well, McCutcheon and his locks collapsed nearly completely in the second half while his Pirates skittered into the record books on the futility side. Trout continued to amaze, as did the baseball writers who picked the wrong guy -- by a country mile -- for the award.
On the other hand, the same post suggested the Dodgers should find a new home for Hanley Ramirez after a .330/.392/.549 performance and good behavior in 23 games following his trade from Miami. Put this way:
Now if the Dodgers are smart, they'll flip Hanley's re-motivated self to another club while his value remains spiked and let his next sulk come at someone else's expense.
Ah, but they held on in the vain hope that he could help them slip into the playoffs. Instead, a .268/.305/.375 September drained most of his trade value and for the second time in five years an uninterested "Ramirez" will plague the Dodger roster at high cost.
Carl Crawford, however, did listen, just from the other end of the country. Attempting to play through the lost Red Sox season with a torn left (throwing) elbow tendon, Crawford finally heeded the same post, which urged him to bag the season and accede to Tommy John surgery the next day. Nearly the next day . . . Crawford was packaged up with Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto to the Dodgers, whereupon he went straight into the operating room. With eight months to heal, Crawford is expected to be ready for Opening Day.
We all will be. See you there with a new batch of provocations, some of which will even be right.
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