Who Has Quality Wins and Losses

Previous discussion in this space outlined the vast advantages of tying wins and losses to a matrix of what constitutes quality starts. Doing so demonstrates how Jason Hammel of the Orioles, who sports a 7-4 record, in fact has provided his team with only five good chances to win in 14 tries. Conversely, The White Sox' Chris Sale, whose 5-5 record suggests middling performance, should be 10-2 based on the quality of his starts.

Here are some other insights that Quality Wins provides on starting pitcher records:

The Phillies' Cole Hamels is 2-10. He should be 10-5. His won-loss record not only tells us nothing about his performance, it completely misleads us.
The Cardinals' Lance Lynn is 9-1. He should be 9-5. He's avoided four losses because his teammates have bailed him out.

Here are some other Quality Win revelations with the pitcher's name, his Quality Win record in bold and his actual W-L tally in parentheses.

Bud Norris 10-3 (5-6)
Patrick Corbin 10-3 (9-0)
The Astros' righty and D'backs lefty have performed similarly, but W-L aficionados would perceive them quite differently.

Joe Saunders, 8-6 (5-6) 
Yovani Gallardo 6-9 (6-6)
An above average Mariner has a losing record while a bad Brewer appears to be middling.

Stephen Strasburg, 8-5 (3-6)
Gio Gonzalez 9-5 (3-3)
Evidently the Nats' problem is more offensive than defensive.

Clayton Kershaw, 12-3 (5-4)
Jon Lester, 6-9 (6-4) 
The Dodgers' ace and the Red Sox' ace have similar records, but only because one has been victimized and the other propped up, by his mates.

Brandon Morrow 3-7 (2-3)
Phil Hughes 7-6 (3-5)
Again, similar records; divergent paths. 

Mat Latos 9-5 (6-0)
Shaun Marcum 3-7 (0-8)
The undefeated Red should have lost five times. The winless Met has pitched well enough for victory a few times.

Lucas Harrell 10-5 (5-7)
Ricky Nolasco, 8-6 (3-7) 
A.J. Burnett 9-5 (4-6) 
Marco Estrada 4-8 (4-4)
Estrada has the best record of the group despite the worst results.

This is based on a 2000-2013 standard, which includes a goodly chunk of the longball era. You might be thinking that had we limited the benchmark to 2011-2013, more of these wins would be losses, or put another way, a starter would have to pitch more innings per run allowed in order to notch the W.

Currently, this is the matrix:
Go at least five innings. Give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch 6.3 innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight innings and give up four runs or fewer.
Pitch 9.7 innings and give up five runs or fewer.

Subtract three percent from the scoring and the matrix becomes this:
Go five innings. Give up one run or none.
Go at least five-and-two-thirds innings and give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch seven innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight-and-two-thirds innings and give up four runs or fewer.

As it turns out, it doesn't make much difference. After recalculating the Quality Win records of eight guys listed above, a grand total of one win transformed into a loss. 

The bottom line is, if you're addicted to pitching wins, here's a formula that hews closer to the quality of the start. And as these examples attest, it can make a big difference in how you perceive a pitcher.

Twelve's Not Enough

It was a big night on Monday for Diamondback starter Zach Duke. His team spotted him 12 runs in four innings and he smashed a two-run cookie at the plate against the drowning Marlins.

Alas, Duke did not get the win. Up nine-zip, he relinquished three runs in the third, one in the fourth and another three before he could get out of the fifth. Duke left the game with a five-run cushion, but came an out short of "earning" the win.

The good news is: he didn't lose. That's high praise for a 4 2/3-inning performance of seven runs on 13 hits, including doubles by each of the two opposing pitchers. It can come as some consolation that the Brewers' Randy Wolf and Cubs' Ryan Dempster also didn't win, despite pitching seven shutout frames against each other. They walked one and fanned 14 between them.

Also not losing was the Rays' Alex Cobb (5 2/3 shutout innnings) and Detroit's Phil Coke (6 1/3 innings of goose eggs). So they're all in the same boat with Duke as far as the W-L record goes.

A.J. Burnett can't say the same. He held Cleveland to a run on five hits, a walk and eight strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. But he was "charged" with the loss.

Of course, there's one thing Duke accomplished that the rest of the pitchers didn't. In a 12-9 barn burner he hit the game's only home run.

Baseball's a crazy game.

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Seeing the Invisible

Dear friends of Chris Jenkins,

Two weeks ago, your favorite columnist wrote an epistle against new baseball analysis, ruing the demise of the pitching win. A won-lost record should mean something, he intoned.

A week into the season, I come to praise the win-loss record, not to bury it. Tim Lincecum can tell you the value of a pitching win. He quieted the Dodgers on three hits over seven innings in his first start, but failed his team by allowing his catcher to make an error, allowing the game's only run to score.

Joe Blanton's profile is not similarly stained. He surrendered seven runs on 10 hits in 4.3 frames last night but, because his team owned a seven-run lead, he got no decision. Pitching to the score, I guess. Just as Mike Pelfrey did on the other side, retiring six batters before allowing an eighth Phillie score. He must've known the Mets would tie the game. Bruce Jenkins says neither hurler deserves to lose and Bruce is an honorable man.

Last night, Jason Hammel served up two homers and three walks for four runs in five innings to L.A., but since he knew his Rockie teammates would provide him seven runs, earned credit for a win. The Reds' Edinson Volquez did the same for his run of fives against the limp Astros' lineup -- five innings, five hits, five walks and four runs. Bruce Jenkins says a win is valuable and Bruce is an honorable man.

On Tuesday, the Reds' Mike Leake, Washington's Jason Marquis  and the Cards' Kyle McClellan all held their opponents to a pair of runs in six innings. Leake got the win; neither Marquis nor McClellan did. Relief pitching and run support were the difference, but Bruce Jenkins says the win distinguishes Leake's performance from the others' and Bruce is an honorable man.

I'm not sure how Bruce will explain the loss Derek Lowe absorbed for holding the Brewers to one run in six innings. I suspect he'll point out that he shouldn't have allowed any scoring if his offense wasn't going to cross the plate.

Insightful observers like Bruce Jenkins, who remain versed in the measuring techniques of Old Hoss Radbourne's day, see something the rest of us don't. They see how a pitcher can control for his teammates' offensive and defensive abilities, and want to see that ability enshrined in the won-loss record. And since we don't possess Bruce's special talent, maybe we should just accept his assertions on faith.

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Are You Smarter Than A Baseball Writer?

Congratulations! You've just been awarded a 1987 Baseball Writers Association of America card, which entitles you to vote for post-season awards.

You cover a National League team, so you'll cast your ballot for NL players.

Being  the conscientious reporter you are, you've done your homework and considered seriously the options. That's another way of saying that not only have you not selected Andre Dawson and his 49 home runs MVP, he and his .328 OBP don't make your ballot. The rest of this august club doesn't share your view.

Five hurlers are on your Cy Young list, oh devoted one, and there is little to recommend one more heartily than the others. Here are their seasonal resumes:

Orel Herhiser -- The Dodger righty posted a 3.58 RA -- compared to a league average of 4.05 -- in 264 innings. His 10 complete games was second in the league and his 190 K/74/BB ratio and 1.25 WHIP both represent aptitude. He earned 24 quality starts in 35 tries.

Dwight Gooden -- The Mets' 22-year-old missed part of the season, holding opponents to 3.41 runs/game over 180 innings. Seventeen of his 25 starts pinned the needle on the quality meter. His 148 K/53 BB ratio and 1.21 WHIP were akin to Hershiser's, if slightly more impressive; his seven complete games, a whisker less.

Rick Reuschel -- The veteran northpaw split his 227 innings of 3.61 RA between the Pirates and Giants, though his 25 Pirate starts were runaway Cy Young material and his 8 Giant appearances during the pennant race were far more forgettable. His 20 quality starts in 33 tries lag his competitors, but his 1.14 WHIP and his 107 K/42 BB ratio are anyone's equal, though he gets there a different way. He also led the league with 12 complete games.

Nolan Ryan -- The 40-year-old flamethrower had his best year since 1981, leading the league with a 3.19 RA in 212 frames for the Astros.  His 27 quality starts pace the circuit, as do his 270 whiffs. His 270 K/87 BB ratio is the best of the bunch; his 1.16 WHIP is right there.
Mike Scott & Bob Welch -- This pair is grouped because their performances were eerily similar, though Scott toiled for Houston and Welch for L.A. They relinquished the same number of runs, with Welch pitching four more innings, for RAs of 3.42 and 3.36 respectively. Scott's 233/79 split overpowers Welch's 196/86 and he finished eight games to Welch's six, but his 23 of 36 quality starts is a hair off Welch's 25 of 35. Their WHIPs of 1.12 and 1.15 respectively were Cy material.

It's important to recognize that Reuschel is the only moundsman here not benefiting from a stingy home park. Chavez Ravine, Shea and the Astrodome were the three hardest places to make a living with the stick. Three Rivers bore no such burden and Candlestick had its own unique story, of which holding down scoring was but a small part. (Anyway, Reuschel made all of four starts as a Giant in SF.)

So whom would you vote for? Perhaps you favor Hershiser for the durability of his excellence or Reuschel for overcoming more obstacles.  I'd go with Ryan for keeping runs off the board and getting the most outs without the help of his defense. He'd have borne more of the innings burden had his mates supplied his starts with more support.

In any case, none of these fine specimens won the Cy Young in 1987. None finished second.

Here's what I didn't mention: Nolan Ryan went 8-16 for the punchless 76-86 Astros, whose best hitter, Glenn Davis, pounded 27 home runs but posted a miserable .310 OBP. Hershiser compiled a 16-16 record for a 73-89 Dodger squad so offensively inept that Pedro Guerrero's OPS 54% higher than league average still only produced 89 R and 89 RBI. Baseball writers could never bring themselves to anoint Rick Resuschel's 13-9 mark or Mike Scott's 16-13 worthy of Cy Young awards. In a year when seven American League hurlers were credited with 17 wins or more (and Doyle Alexander got credit for nine wins without a loss after a late season trade to Detroit), the 15-9 records of Dwight Gooden and Bob Welch paled.

Instead, baseball writers split their votes between Rick Sutcliffe, whose 18 wins masked a league average RA, a below-average strikeout-walk ratio and a 1.40 WHIP, and reliever Steve Bedrosian, whose 40 saves gave voters the best opportunity to demonstrate that what they knew about baseball could fit on the head of a pin without getting knocked off by the 21 dancing angels. Bedrosian won the award having faced 366 batters, a mere third of Hershiser's total.

Really, had the writers ignored an 8-16 record and bestowed the honor on Ryan, the earth would have opened up and swallowed Cooperstown whole. The heavens would have rumbled and smoting would have commenced. It was not possible in 1987 and it remain impossible today, even though there are 30 years of research demonstrating conclusively that won-loss records are poor barometers of pitching performance. The nation elected a black president, a Muslim at that; you might think baseball writers could elect the best pitcher regardless of his record.

All this may be significant again as Felix Hernandez of Seattle makes his AL Cy Young case in 2010. King Felix has pitched the most stanzas at a 3.11 RA (the league's third best) with the league's third best strikeout-walk ratio and all the other peripherals you'd expect. Irrelevant to reality but a lead weight to perception is his 9-10 record, which is entirely the result of an historically bad Mariners offense that could play home run derby in a snow globe without making it snow. The M's have scored fewer than 3.5 runs per game and have a team OPS 22% below league average. On top of that, their relief pitching is a grease fire, anchored by a closer at 0-6, 4.14.

In the same way that BBWAA members never seriously considered Nolan Ryan in 1987, they are not yet sufficiently informed to recognize that -- so far in 2010, at least -- Hernandez is somewhere in the vicinity of the AL's best pitcher. Whether he gets credited for wins, his teammates will have to answer for.

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Off the Cliff

When Cliff Lee won the Cy Young award with a dominant 22-3 record last season, anyone paying attention had to know that he'd regress this year. So far, he's 2-6. So last year was a fluke.

Not.

In fact, surprisingly, he's pitched almost as well as he did last year. Really.

Lee has a 3.14 RA. That's ERA without regard for whether runs are "earned" or "unearned." Careful observers of the game have noticed that errors are but a small subset of defensive plays that could go either way depending on the fielder. Parsing out only those plays tilts the record in a fairly arbitrary way.

Moreover, the whole system of errors and earned runs is a swirl of capriciousness, from biased official scorers to transparently silly rules. Here's just one example: An error on a two-out play renders all succeeding runs "unearned," even those that are clearly the pitcher's responsibility. Even worse: pitchers get an ERA pass for runs created by errors they have committed.

So Lee's 3.14 RA, which ranks seventh in the AL this year, would have placed him third at the end of last season behind Daiske Matsusaka and...Cliff Lee. But his low 2009 RA is deceiving: he stumbled out of the gate, giving up 11 runs and 17 hits in his first two starts. Since then, he's channeled the '08 (not to mention the '05) Cliff Lee, relinquishing a stingy two runs a game.

But even RA has much to apologize for. It makes no provision for defense and is heavily influenced by the quality of relief pitching. It doesn't account for the parks a pitcher pitches in or the quality of opponents he faces.

Fortuntely, Progressive Field (nee': The Jake) is a fairly neutral park for run scoring and Lee's opponent roster, while considerably easier than Roy Halladay's -- who pitches in the brutal AL East --is nonetheless unremarkable. The Indian defense this year, according to the advanced metrics devised by the eggheads at Baseball Prospectus, has been just a tad below average. So let's dig deeper and see how he's doing.

Lee is eating 6 2/3rds innings per start and striking out 3 1/2 times as many batters as he walks. His 6.5 K per nine innings is another positive. Lee is putting way too many runners on base -- his 1.42 WHIP borders on lousy -- but he's offsetting some of that by keeping the ball in the park. Four home runs in 74 innings is excellent, and reminiscent of last year.

All this indicates that Lee is taking care of business on his end -- walks and home runs are entirely the province of the pitcher -- but being victimized by seeing-eye singles and bloop doubles. Ironically, this is the resume of a ground ball pitcher, but Lee tends towards the flyball. I don't really know what to make of that, but it appears all in all that his strong showing is the real thing.

Still, 2-6 stinks, right? Sure, but it's a team game, and the team around Lee in Cleveland gives him less support than his jock strap. In his last five outings, the Indians have plated a grand total of seven runs, en route to the worst record in the AL so far. Their power core -- Hafner, Sizemore, Peralta and Garko -- have socked 18 home runs combined, two more than the Rays' Carlos Pena.

In baseball, luck tends to even out over time. Lee withdrew a lifetime's share from the karma bank last year, so maybe he's paying it back in '09. But pitching deep into games, striking guys out and keeping the ball in the park are a great foundation for success. If he keeps it up, he'll have a great year, whether or not his won-loss record reflects it.

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