The NL MVP: Stolen By A Pirate

Yadier Molina is the Adonis of backstops. He commands the defense, terrorizes baserunners, and frames pitches. He rakes like an outfielder -- .316 BA with 55 extra base hits.  And as a catcher, he's well-nigh irreplaceable. (His understudy hit .205 with an OPS 300 points lower.)

The green eye shades, however, don't consistently hold Molina's skill set in high regard. Some fielding metrics even ding him for his glove work. None of the valuation systems seem to credit him appropriately for his prowess at the bat despite squatting for 1300 innings a year. Consequently, you would not find Molina's name on the short list of MVP candidates in Seamhead Land. Baseball Prospectus credits Molina with 4.0 wins against replacement. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference have him at 5.4 and 5.7 respectively.

This seems preposterous for a player who plays a role in literally every single pitch, and it leaves us all wondering how else to value him. Compare him, for example, to teammate Matt Carpenter, who covered second and third base while playing almost every Cardinal game and compiling a .325/.391/.486 line, with a league-leading 55 doubles. Carpenter's 41 point-advantage in OPS over 25 more games are certainly a yawning gap, particularly from a player staffing a low-offense position. Carpenter is credited with about one extra win compared to Molina.

When considering the MVP the one and only consideration should be how much value the player brought to his team. There is one statistic, variously called Wins Against Replacement (WAR) or Wins Against Replacement Player (WARP), that is designed to compile all the elements -- on-base ability, power-hitting, baserunning, defense -- multiplied by the level of competition and the offensive proclivities of the relevant ballparks, all while accounting for replacement level at the player's position. On that last item, a first baseman or right fielder is held to a higher hitting standard than a shortstop or catcher.

We could all take the day off if that one statistic picked the crop, bundled it and carried it off to market. But defensive statistics are still crawling and learning their ABCs; we have limited faith in them. So let's view the candidates through the statistical lens of offense, and season the results with defense.

Matt Carpenter, 2B/3B      .325/.391/.486,   .877 OPS   66.4 VORP   good defensive flexibility
Andrew McCutchen, CF    .317/.404/.508,  .912 OPS   65.0 VORP   highlight-reel defense
Shin-soo Choo, CF            .286/.424/.464   .888 OPS   63.1 VORP    a RF masquerading as a CF
Joey Votto, 1B                 .306/.436/.492,  .928 OPS   55.8 VORP    Gold Glove defense
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B       .302/.401/.553,  .954 OPS   53.0 VORP    superb defense
Jayson Werth, RF            .318/.398/.535   .933 OPS    44.8 VORP   average outfielder
Buster Posey, C                .294/.369/.451   .820 OPS   44.1 VORP    good D at key position
Yadier Molina, C               .319/.359/.477,  .836 OPS   40.6 VORP   elite D at key position
Freddie Freeman, 1B      .319/.396/.502   .898 OPS   39.3 VORP    good defense
Carlos Gomez, CF            .325/.391/.486   .877 OPS   38.7 VORP   superb D at key position


(There is WAR/WARP for pitchers, which filters out defense and examines the underlying performance of the thrower. It's a slow-moving revolution in which you should not invest short-term money.)

There are a lot of legitimate contenders here and reasonable people may pick different names for the top of their ballot. Goldschmidt owns the slugging, OPS, HR and RBI titles for 2013. Votto and Choo are 1-2 in OBP and should be expecting Valentine's chocolates from Brandon Phillips. Carpenter's ability to cover the corner gives manager Mike Matheny options. Posey and Molina have value that seems to elude the system.

But the best MVP catch is The Cutch, Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen. He hits, runs (27 of 37 steals) and flashes leather. He's the key cog in the Bucs' playoff push, turning it on (1.015 OPS) in the last two months. For his mix of skills McCutchen is also the NL leader in WAR, worth 8.2 wins against replacement, a full win better than anyone else.

Before departing, a shout out to three star performers who weren't on the field enough. Hanley Ramirez and David Wright have their bodies to blame; Yasiel Puig languished in Chattanooga for 40 games. Extrapolated to a full season, that trio would rank 1-2-3 respectively in the MVP race.
Ramirez, the Dodger shortstop, posted an OPS over 1000 and was worth five wins in just 86 games. And remember how the league would catch up to Puig? Well, it's catching its breath instead. He ended the season at .321/.392/.537 and 42 extra base hits in less than 2/3rds of a season. Wait until he learns the game...

Insurmountable Lead . . . Surmounted

Official award ballots have to be finalized on the last day of the regular season. I only get a vote in the tangled web of my mind, and perhaps in your heart, so I'm assembling them now.

Earlier this season, Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen had taken the trophies (if indeed there are trophies involved) and stashed them prematurely in their attics (if indeed they have attics.) Both had established nearly insurmountable leads on the field.

Then a funny thing happened. Miguel Cabrera made an historic run at the Triple Crown. Buster Posey squatted between his entire team's legs and carried the Giants to an easy division crown (if indeed there is a crown involved.) And McCutchen scuffled as the Pirates rediscovered gravity.

Trout's lock on the MVP has already been documented here. (That's not to say he will win it, especially if the Tigers make the playoffs and the Angels don't. Sportswriters still stuck in the Cretaceous Period continue to limit their options to the fortunate few who have the best teammates. It's just to say that he has earned it, with all due respect to Cabrera, the best hitter in the AL and maybe the game.)

Just to add one more log to the raging inferno of awe over Mike Trout's rookie season: with respect to wins above replacement per 100 games played -- remember that Trout wasn't called up until May -- the top 10 seasons of all time have been posted by Babe Ruth (four times), Barry Bonds (twice), Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, George Brett and now the Angels' center fielder. Trout's 2012 ranks ahead of all but Ruth's 1923 season. This was Ruth's listing in Baseball Reference for that year:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB

1923

28

NYY

AL

152

697

522

151

205

45

13

41

131

17

21

170

93

.393

.545

.764

1.309

239

399

Dude had a 1.309 OPS, more than double the league average, with 399 total bases. He got on base nearly 55% of the time and scored 151 runs. Trout is second to that. And he can't legally drink yet. (This was never an issue for The Babe.)

But this is a post about the NL MVP, which many believe is back in play because McCutchen hasn't prevented the Bucs from tanking. They point out that he hit just .252/.347/.346 in August, when the team lost its bearings and lost17 of 28 games for the month. But Pittsburgh has collapsed to 6-20 in September despite McCutchen's .260/.372/.510 bounce back. (He just hit a walk-off home run for the win as I write this.) Nonetheless, there is no doubt that the peloton has reeled him in.

Let's compare him to his three primary competitors for MVP:

McCutchen    .330/.403/.557    55.6 runs offensive value   very good glove/premium position
Buster Posey  .334/.407/.544    65.9 runs value   good glove/78% of games at plus-plus position
Yadier Molina .320/.378/.512    53.4 runs value    great glove/plus-plus position
Ryan Braun    .319/.391/.602    53.9 runs value    weak glove/non-premium position

Clearly the field has narrowed. I see a discernible difference between the top two -- McCutchen & Posey -- and the bottom two -- Molina and Braun. Posey's bat is McCutchen's equal under more difficult conditions. Moreover, returning from a catastrophic 2011 injury, he may have needed time to round into form. He's hit .384/.456/.641 in the second half while playing mostly behind the plate. His added punch has offset the damaging loss of Melky Cabrera to the Giants just when the NL West division battle was heating up.

The MVP crystal ball, once crystal clear, has fogged. I'd cast my ballot for Posey unless something stunning happens in the last six games. Does that take Scott Cousins off the hook?

NL MVP: Gotta Have A Votto Love

That the prime candidates for 2010 NL MVP all toiled for contenders should not lull you into the cognitive weakness of assuming that “leading his team to the pennant” is a credible skill.

The four legitimate contenders clubbed their way to stardom for the Rockies, Cardinals, Padres and Reds. They deserve consideration not because their teams won bunches of games but because they personally contributed at the highest levels.  But first, a word about a young outfielder who is not a viable candidate.

If batting average, steals and outfield versatility float your boat, Carlos Gonzalez is your coxswain. The Venezuelan lefty hit .336 to pace the league, swiped 26 bases and deployed variously to all three outfield positions. But Cargo didn’t work the count at an MVP level, leaving his more relevant on base percentage at .376, 37^th best in baseball, six spots behind Chipper Jones and his .265 BA.

Moreover, Cargo was a thin air demon, managing just a .289/.322/.453 line with a mere eight of his 34 dingers away from Denver. Most batters perform better when there’s no hotel involved, but those splits suggest that Cargo’s a good hitter exploiting a very favorable condition. Nix!

Anyway, there’s a superior candidate from Colorado: shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo hit .315/.381/.568 with more normal platoon splits. While those numbers don’t match Cargo’s they tower over the average shortstop’s. Whereas Gonzalez cooled just as the Rockies ran out of steam at season’s end, Tulo kept the engine stoked, accumulating a 1.127 OPS in the last month and banging 12 of his 27 homers.

In fact, Tulowitzki’s greater MVP competition is another Gonzalez, Masochist of the Year Adrian Gonzalez. San Diego’s first baseman has the dubious distinction of playing his home games in the Grand Canyon, surrounded by a lineup of replacement-level hitters. That he was able to produce a .298/.393/.511 line and 31 homers while carrying the entire Padre offense on his back is remarkable. His road record -- .315 .402 .578 with 20 homers – suggests that Petco seriously kiboshes his power. 

That's all very nice, but now let's talk about the National League's Most Valuable Player.

There is a pair of first baseman whose performances require no explanations. Albert Pujols and Joey Votto delivered seasons superior in nearly every way to the above-named. Pujols (.312/.414/.596 with 14 steals in 18 attempts) and Votto (.324/.424/.600 with 16 steals in 21 attempts) sufficiently outpaced Tulowitzki to overwhelm his added value as a shortstop, and simply overwhelm the accomplishments of the Messers Gonzalez.

While Votto is a perfectly perfunctory first baseman, Pujols’s defensive acumen shaves off Votto’s offensive edge. Both players lit it up in August and early September, when Cincinnati pulled away from St. Louis, and both play in parks that don’t much favor offense or defense. Pujols stayed healthy for all but two games and delivered his excellence in 52 more plate appearances.

So why is Joey Votto my MVP? You can divine meaning from the sixth decimal place if you like, but basically the two are even. Votto, though, carried the Reds’ offense. Whereas Pujols had a trusty sidekick in Matt Holliday (.922 OPS) with support from Colby Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick for two-thirds of the season, Votto’s supporting cast was a revitalized Scott Rolen (.855 OPS) and the likes of Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs.

Votto gets my vote by a split hair over the best player in the game. If the baseball writers split the hair differently, that’s fine. Any other vote is a Ricky Riccardo – they got a lot a ‘splainin’ to do.

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