What do Steve Garvey, Paul Blair, Tim Wakefield, Frank Howard, Bill Mazeroski, Rick Wise, Pie Traynor, Frank White, Brady Anderson and Tom Gordon have in common?
It's the same characteristic shared by Joe Adcock, Harvey Haddix, Willie McGee, Ron Gant, Bobby Thompson, Rick Monday, Pat Hentgen and Rico Carty.
They were all very accomplished Major League Baseball players. They all played 14 or more seasons at the highest level.
And they all earned fewer wins against replacement than Mike Trout -- who is only 23.
Trout has now led the league in WAR each of his first four seasons. He's won a Rookie of the Year, an MVP and three second place MVP finishes. He should have been first each time.
Trout this year slugged 41 home runs and led the AL in slugging percentage, OPS and True Average. He plays a key up-the-middle position. You've seen the highlight reel.
Trout's lifetime TAv is .352. That means, if you see the world through batting average lenses, put all of Mike Trout's attributes together and he's a .352 kind of guy. Willie Mays, over his career, was a .339 kind of guy.
Mike Trout is the same flavor as Willie Mays. Plus sprinkles.
So don't feel too badly for Shawn Green, Derek Lowe, Ken Griffey Sr., B.J. Surhoff, Rick Sutcliffe, Barry Zito, Ted Kluszewski, Richie Hebner, Smokey Burgess and Garry Maddox.
And quit your sniggling Lou Brock, Vida Blue, Gil Hodges, Rusty Staub, Carlos Delgado, Nomar Garciaparra, Jack Morris, Dizzy Dean and Rocky Colavito. You're next!
Showing posts with label wins against replacement. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wins against replacement. Show all posts
29 November 2015
29 November 2013
Lifting the Veil of Luck
It's appropriate on the weekend of Black Friday to discuss shopping frenzies. To some extent, every team is in one now as they kick the tires on free agents who might help them win in 2014 and beyond.
One of the most important advances in the world of baseball analytics is the ability of franchise brass to evaluate personnel realistically. When baseball GMs determine which free agents might help their teams in 2014, they will view 37-year-old Bruce Chen with a jaundiced eye.
Teams will know that Chen's 9-4, 3.27 effort for Kansas City in 2013 was a chimera. Nothing in his pitching profile suggested that he had a special season except the ultimate results. In 121 innings he fanned just 78. He relinquished just 107 hits, primarily because opponents batted only .255 on balls in play (BABIP) against him, 25 points lower than his career rate and 40 notches lower than league average. The chasm opens wider when examining only Chen's 15 starts; he made 19 relief appearances to begin the season before the Royals summoned him back into the rotation.
In addition, Chen stranded 78% of runners who reached base against him, significantly above his lifetime and league average rates. Strand rates are rarely a matter of skill. Finally, an unusually low percentage of fly balls against him left the park, often a sign that a pitcher got lucky with wind, field configuration, and the like. Taken together, the snapshot of Chen's results provides strong evidence that regression troops are arraying on the border and preparing to attack next season. Caveat emptor.
Likewise, Cubs brass won't be relying on Travis Wood to deliver another stellar (literally: he made the All-Star team) 3.29 ERA season in 2014. Wood also enjoyed a low BABIP (.248), high strand rate (77%) and low fly ball/HR ratio. Advanced statistical models suggest his actual performance looked more like a 4.50 ERA.
Instead, Cubs management might hope for bounce-back from Edwin Jackson. Despite an 8-18, 4.98 campaign in '13, Jackson was actually a strong performer. A .322 BABIP against and a frighteningly low (63%) strand rate conspired to denigrate his work. Fangraphs estimates Jackson was worth two wins above replacement, something an ERA of nearly-five would not suggest.
And don't look now, but 2014's Tiger pitching phenom could be Rick Porcello. The 25-year-old righty managed a 13-8, 4.32 line when everything was going against him; it'll be interesting to see what happens when he basks in the sunshine of serendipity. Like Jackson, Porcello suffered a high BABIP and low strand rate in '13, but big flies are what really did him in. One of every seven balls in the air against him cleared the fences, a miserable rate for which he might not be completely responsible. Fangraphs thinks Porcello was more like a 3.50 ERA hurler who was worth 3.5 wins last year.
Over the last four years, Porcello's strikeout rate has risen while his walk rate has held steady. If he can keep the ball in the park just a little better he has a chance to to some damage in 2014.
Remember, regression is a trend, not a guarantee. Jackson could stink up the joint again and Wood could again leave the bases full of runners. It's just not the way to bet.
One of the most important advances in the world of baseball analytics is the ability of franchise brass to evaluate personnel realistically. When baseball GMs determine which free agents might help their teams in 2014, they will view 37-year-old Bruce Chen with a jaundiced eye.
Teams will know that Chen's 9-4, 3.27 effort for Kansas City in 2013 was a chimera. Nothing in his pitching profile suggested that he had a special season except the ultimate results. In 121 innings he fanned just 78. He relinquished just 107 hits, primarily because opponents batted only .255 on balls in play (BABIP) against him, 25 points lower than his career rate and 40 notches lower than league average. The chasm opens wider when examining only Chen's 15 starts; he made 19 relief appearances to begin the season before the Royals summoned him back into the rotation.
In addition, Chen stranded 78% of runners who reached base against him, significantly above his lifetime and league average rates. Strand rates are rarely a matter of skill. Finally, an unusually low percentage of fly balls against him left the park, often a sign that a pitcher got lucky with wind, field configuration, and the like. Taken together, the snapshot of Chen's results provides strong evidence that regression troops are arraying on the border and preparing to attack next season. Caveat emptor.
Likewise, Cubs brass won't be relying on Travis Wood to deliver another stellar (literally: he made the All-Star team) 3.29 ERA season in 2014. Wood also enjoyed a low BABIP (.248), high strand rate (77%) and low fly ball/HR ratio. Advanced statistical models suggest his actual performance looked more like a 4.50 ERA.
Instead, Cubs management might hope for bounce-back from Edwin Jackson. Despite an 8-18, 4.98 campaign in '13, Jackson was actually a strong performer. A .322 BABIP against and a frighteningly low (63%) strand rate conspired to denigrate his work. Fangraphs estimates Jackson was worth two wins above replacement, something an ERA of nearly-five would not suggest.
And don't look now, but 2014's Tiger pitching phenom could be Rick Porcello. The 25-year-old righty managed a 13-8, 4.32 line when everything was going against him; it'll be interesting to see what happens when he basks in the sunshine of serendipity. Like Jackson, Porcello suffered a high BABIP and low strand rate in '13, but big flies are what really did him in. One of every seven balls in the air against him cleared the fences, a miserable rate for which he might not be completely responsible. Fangraphs thinks Porcello was more like a 3.50 ERA hurler who was worth 3.5 wins last year.
Over the last four years, Porcello's strikeout rate has risen while his walk rate has held steady. If he can keep the ball in the park just a little better he has a chance to to some damage in 2014.
Remember, regression is a trend, not a guarantee. Jackson could stink up the joint again and Wood could again leave the bases full of runners. It's just not the way to bet.
12 August 2013
Here We Go Again
It's happening again.
Miguel Cabrera is vying again for the Triple Crown, leading baseball in batting average, RBI and trailing only Chris Davis with 35 home runs. He also leads the AL in on base percentage, OPS and runs scored. The future Hall of Famer is undoubtedly the best hitter in the game now that Prince Albert has succumbed to corporeal ravages.
How unusual is Cabrera's accomplishment? He's only the 16th player in 130 years of ball who matched that particular feat in the first place. Taking five of six MVP categories in two consecutive years has been done once, by Jimmy Foxx in 1932-33. Double-X paced the AL with 58 homers and 169 RBI in 1932, but his meager .364 batting average cost him the medal stand. He claimed the crown in 1933 with 48 HR 158 RBI and a .356 BA, then failed to lead in any of those categories the following year.
(Ted Williams swept to the Triple Crown in 1942, then went to war for three years. A year after his return (picking up a W against the Germans), he repeated his dominance along with the league lead in runs, walks, OBP, slugging and OPS. Give him a non-steroid asterisk.)
Cabrera is in rarefied air and it gets even thinner: He hit for the highest batting average in 2011. That leaves him with three batting titles, two home run titles and two RBI titles over three consecutive years if the current pace continues.
That's not the deja vu part of the story, though. In fact, the story isn't even about Miguel Cabrera. It's about the guy who right now has a better case for American League MVP. Mike Trout.
Again.
Mike Trout doesn't carry Miguel Cabrera's stick. His OPS -- on base percentage plus slugging percentage -- is 121 points lower. He doesn't hit for the average (.331 versus .360), get on base as regularly (.425 versus .464) or hit for the same kind of power (20 HR versus 35). But Trout does everything else better.
Trout is fast and Cabrera is...fast for an Abominable Snowman. Trout makes the highlight reel with his glove. Cabrera makes the highlight reel for discovering third base for the first time. Trout staffs the critical middle pasture. Cabrera defaults to third because Prince Fielder is even more cube-shaped than he is.
Sum the column and you get a big chunk of the game where Trout runs circles around Cabrera. The 26 of 30 steals, the base running advantage (e.g., Cabrera has grounded into 14 double plays to Trout's six), the superior defense and the comparison at the plate to center fielders rather than corner infielders gives Trout an edge.
This isn't really to propose that Trout should be the MVP over Miggy this year. Immature defensive stats can hardly be determinative even if at season's end, which we're not. The gap between the two -- Baseball Reference has Trout at 6.4 wins against replacement and Cabrera at 6.2 -- is too close to end the discussion.
Still, we're on pace for familiar arguments and, I suspect, a familiar conclusion when the votes are counted.
Again.
Miguel Cabrera is vying again for the Triple Crown, leading baseball in batting average, RBI and trailing only Chris Davis with 35 home runs. He also leads the AL in on base percentage, OPS and runs scored. The future Hall of Famer is undoubtedly the best hitter in the game now that Prince Albert has succumbed to corporeal ravages.
How unusual is Cabrera's accomplishment? He's only the 16th player in 130 years of ball who matched that particular feat in the first place. Taking five of six MVP categories in two consecutive years has been done once, by Jimmy Foxx in 1932-33. Double-X paced the AL with 58 homers and 169 RBI in 1932, but his meager .364 batting average cost him the medal stand. He claimed the crown in 1933 with 48 HR 158 RBI and a .356 BA, then failed to lead in any of those categories the following year.
(Ted Williams swept to the Triple Crown in 1942, then went to war for three years. A year after his return (picking up a W against the Germans), he repeated his dominance along with the league lead in runs, walks, OBP, slugging and OPS. Give him a non-steroid asterisk.)
Cabrera is in rarefied air and it gets even thinner: He hit for the highest batting average in 2011. That leaves him with three batting titles, two home run titles and two RBI titles over three consecutive years if the current pace continues.
That's not the deja vu part of the story, though. In fact, the story isn't even about Miguel Cabrera. It's about the guy who right now has a better case for American League MVP. Mike Trout.
Again.
Mike Trout doesn't carry Miguel Cabrera's stick. His OPS -- on base percentage plus slugging percentage -- is 121 points lower. He doesn't hit for the average (.331 versus .360), get on base as regularly (.425 versus .464) or hit for the same kind of power (20 HR versus 35). But Trout does everything else better.
Trout is fast and Cabrera is...fast for an Abominable Snowman. Trout makes the highlight reel with his glove. Cabrera makes the highlight reel for discovering third base for the first time. Trout staffs the critical middle pasture. Cabrera defaults to third because Prince Fielder is even more cube-shaped than he is.
Sum the column and you get a big chunk of the game where Trout runs circles around Cabrera. The 26 of 30 steals, the base running advantage (e.g., Cabrera has grounded into 14 double plays to Trout's six), the superior defense and the comparison at the plate to center fielders rather than corner infielders gives Trout an edge.
This isn't really to propose that Trout should be the MVP over Miggy this year. Immature defensive stats can hardly be determinative even if at season's end, which we're not. The gap between the two -- Baseball Reference has Trout at 6.4 wins against replacement and Cabrera at 6.2 -- is too close to end the discussion.
Still, we're on pace for familiar arguments and, I suspect, a familiar conclusion when the votes are counted.
Again.
26 May 2013
The Critical Importance of Replacement Players
Seamheads long ago established the notion of a "replacement-level player" as the level of production a team could expect from a a freely available replacement -- generally considered a journeyman Quadruple-A player -- if their star suddenly succumbed to injury, illness or severe knuckleheadedness. (See: Ramirez, Manny) Its purpose is to divine the real value of a player, much the way we buy homeowner's insurance based on the cost of rebuilding the house rather on its market value.
Replacement level hitting for a right fielder is necessarily a more stringent standard than for a second baseman because right fielders who can hit .250 with 15 home runs come free with a purchase of 10 gallons of gas, whereas middle infielders who can hit their weight make Major League rosters as long as they bring their own gloves.
This explains (in part) why catcher Buster Posey, with a .919 OPS so far this year has been worth about 2.3 wins with the bat, while right fielder Jose Bautista, with a .975 OPS, has been worth just 1.7 wins. (The other component is ballpark: Posey plays half his games in a pitcher's park; Bautista plays half his in a stadium that favors neither pitcher nor hitter particularly.)
In truth, though, neither every team nor every situation has the same replacement level. A team that enters the off-season knowing its star third baseman will inaugurate the following campaign in rehab has time to recruit a fill-in whose talent level is closer to average. Similarly, a franchise with the advantages of a big market, payroll flexibility and a savvy front office can fish for bigger catches than can, say, the Padres.
None of which quite explains how three of the five most valuable Yankee position players are replacements. Presumably, DH Travis Hafner (.269/.387/.529), outfielder Vernon Wells (.270/.323/.477) and first baseman Lyle Overbay (.255/.292/.484) were available to the entire league. Indeed, Overbay, who compiled negative value for two teams last season before they cut him, is playing for the MLB equivalent of sofa cushion change -- $1.25 million. Yet the trio is filling in admirably for Alex Rodriguez/Kevin Youklis, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira.
It's important to note that although Hafner and Wells are viewed with jaundiced eyes, both have been above-average players for their careers. Pronk is being viewed against his heyday, which is long gone, and Wells against his contract, which was two years and $75 million more than was warranted. Wells delivered little for his $21 million each of the last two seasons, but the two before that he batted .275 and smacked 22 homers a season. Injuries have been Hafner's Achilles heal -- (ironically, he's suffered Biblically over the past decade, but an Achilles heal problem is not among his travails) -- but over the past four seasons, he's produced .268/.361/.453, or 25% above average.
The Sabermetric definition of replacement level for an outfielder is around a .600 OPS. The number wouldn't be much different for a DH or first baseman. Clearly, that is not the standard employed by the Yankees, whose three super-subs have published above-average chapters in April and May. Average OPS for premium hitting positions like corner outfield, DH and first basemen this year is roughly .744, a number cleared by Overbay and obliterated by Pronk and Wells.
Not every Yankee replacement is contending for an All-Star berth. Jayson Nix at shortstop (.230/.306/.294) has defined replacement-level while further burnishing Derek Jeter's bonafides. Eduardo Nunez, pressed into service at short when Kevin Youklis's bulging disc has required Nix to slide to third, is posting a .200/.290/.275 self-indictment with poor defense. With Youk back on the field, Joe Girardi can sit Nunez and endure just one offensive lost cause in the lineup.
Middle infielders who can swing a stick are hard to come by, even for the Yankees and even with lead time. Give a smart franchise time and money to plug holes at positions accustomed to big thumpers and apparently they can deliver starting quality players. Or maybe they've just been unbelievably lucky.
Replacement level hitting for a right fielder is necessarily a more stringent standard than for a second baseman because right fielders who can hit .250 with 15 home runs come free with a purchase of 10 gallons of gas, whereas middle infielders who can hit their weight make Major League rosters as long as they bring their own gloves.
This explains (in part) why catcher Buster Posey, with a .919 OPS so far this year has been worth about 2.3 wins with the bat, while right fielder Jose Bautista, with a .975 OPS, has been worth just 1.7 wins. (The other component is ballpark: Posey plays half his games in a pitcher's park; Bautista plays half his in a stadium that favors neither pitcher nor hitter particularly.)
In truth, though, neither every team nor every situation has the same replacement level. A team that enters the off-season knowing its star third baseman will inaugurate the following campaign in rehab has time to recruit a fill-in whose talent level is closer to average. Similarly, a franchise with the advantages of a big market, payroll flexibility and a savvy front office can fish for bigger catches than can, say, the Padres.
None of which quite explains how three of the five most valuable Yankee position players are replacements. Presumably, DH Travis Hafner (.269/.387/.529), outfielder Vernon Wells (.270/.323/.477) and first baseman Lyle Overbay (.255/.292/.484) were available to the entire league. Indeed, Overbay, who compiled negative value for two teams last season before they cut him, is playing for the MLB equivalent of sofa cushion change -- $1.25 million. Yet the trio is filling in admirably for Alex Rodriguez/Kevin Youklis, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira.
It's important to note that although Hafner and Wells are viewed with jaundiced eyes, both have been above-average players for their careers. Pronk is being viewed against his heyday, which is long gone, and Wells against his contract, which was two years and $75 million more than was warranted. Wells delivered little for his $21 million each of the last two seasons, but the two before that he batted .275 and smacked 22 homers a season. Injuries have been Hafner's Achilles heal -- (ironically, he's suffered Biblically over the past decade, but an Achilles heal problem is not among his travails) -- but over the past four seasons, he's produced .268/.361/.453, or 25% above average.
The Sabermetric definition of replacement level for an outfielder is around a .600 OPS. The number wouldn't be much different for a DH or first baseman. Clearly, that is not the standard employed by the Yankees, whose three super-subs have published above-average chapters in April and May. Average OPS for premium hitting positions like corner outfield, DH and first basemen this year is roughly .744, a number cleared by Overbay and obliterated by Pronk and Wells.
Not every Yankee replacement is contending for an All-Star berth. Jayson Nix at shortstop (.230/.306/.294) has defined replacement-level while further burnishing Derek Jeter's bonafides. Eduardo Nunez, pressed into service at short when Kevin Youklis's bulging disc has required Nix to slide to third, is posting a .200/.290/.275 self-indictment with poor defense. With Youk back on the field, Joe Girardi can sit Nunez and endure just one offensive lost cause in the lineup.
Middle infielders who can swing a stick are hard to come by, even for the Yankees and even with lead time. Give a smart franchise time and money to plug holes at positions accustomed to big thumpers and apparently they can deliver starting quality players. Or maybe they've just been unbelievably lucky.
07 April 2013
WAR on Fox! WAR on Fox!
Mark down this date: April 6, 2013.
That's the date that Fox's baseball coverage included discussions of OPS and WAR. Hallelujah!
Joe Buck introduced both notions without snark or derision. He explained the acronyms (On-base Plus Slugging and Wins Against Replacement) and discussed how they are calculated.
In the first discussion, Buck demurred a bit, noting that OPS is hard to calculate. But Fox inserted Ken Rosenthal into the discussion to explain that sabermetricans and front offices prefer OPS to batting average and home runs. Fox may have been setting the stage for using OBP stats in the future by having Rosenthal aver that on base percentage is more meaningful than batting average.
This is a true advance. But Fox wasn't done.
With Miguel Cabrera at the plate, Buck introduced the viewer to WAR. He explained how -- and why! -- Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera earned just the fourth highest WAR in MLB last year.
Supported by a Fox graphic listing the top four WARriors in 2012, Buck explained how Cabrera would fare less well because he's only an offensive force. He noted that Mike Trout, first by far on that list with nearly 11 wins against replacement, runs the bases and plays defense.
It's truly a watershed when a major TV network intransigent in its opposition to advanced metrics finally acknowledges that there is a better alternative to batting average and home runs. Kudos to Fox for accepting what has been proven and helping educate average fans.
The next giant leap will occur when Rosenthal explains on air to Buck the other key element of WAR. The three players ahead of Cabrera on the WAR list are center fielder Trout, second baseman Robinson Cano and catcher Buster Posey. Each plays a more difficult position and is being compared to weaker hitters than a third baseman, if that's what you want to call Cabrera.
And the battle will finally be won when they both explain it to the satisfaction of Tim McCarver.
That's the date that Fox's baseball coverage included discussions of OPS and WAR. Hallelujah!
Joe Buck introduced both notions without snark or derision. He explained the acronyms (On-base Plus Slugging and Wins Against Replacement) and discussed how they are calculated.
In the first discussion, Buck demurred a bit, noting that OPS is hard to calculate. But Fox inserted Ken Rosenthal into the discussion to explain that sabermetricans and front offices prefer OPS to batting average and home runs. Fox may have been setting the stage for using OBP stats in the future by having Rosenthal aver that on base percentage is more meaningful than batting average.
This is a true advance. But Fox wasn't done.
With Miguel Cabrera at the plate, Buck introduced the viewer to WAR. He explained how -- and why! -- Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera earned just the fourth highest WAR in MLB last year.
Supported by a Fox graphic listing the top four WARriors in 2012, Buck explained how Cabrera would fare less well because he's only an offensive force. He noted that Mike Trout, first by far on that list with nearly 11 wins against replacement, runs the bases and plays defense.
It's truly a watershed when a major TV network intransigent in its opposition to advanced metrics finally acknowledges that there is a better alternative to batting average and home runs. Kudos to Fox for accepting what has been proven and helping educate average fans.
The next giant leap will occur when Rosenthal explains on air to Buck the other key element of WAR. The three players ahead of Cabrera on the WAR list are center fielder Trout, second baseman Robinson Cano and catcher Buster Posey. Each plays a more difficult position and is being compared to weaker hitters than a third baseman, if that's what you want to call Cabrera.
And the battle will finally be won when they both explain it to the satisfaction of Tim McCarver.
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