The Critical Importance of Replacement Players

Seamheads long ago established the notion of a "replacement-level player" as the level of production a team could expect from a a freely available replacement -- generally considered a journeyman Quadruple-A player -- if their star suddenly succumbed to injury, illness or severe knuckleheadedness. (See: Ramirez, Manny) Its purpose is to divine the real value of a player, much the way we buy homeowner's insurance based on the cost of rebuilding the house rather on its market value.

Replacement level hitting for a right fielder is necessarily a more stringent standard than for a second baseman because right fielders who can hit .250 with 15 home runs come free with a purchase of 10 gallons of gas, whereas middle infielders who can hit their weight make Major League rosters as long as they bring their own gloves.
 
This explains (in part) why catcher Buster Posey, with a .919 OPS so far this year has been worth about 2.3 wins with the bat, while right fielder Jose Bautista, with a .975 OPS, has been worth just 1.7 wins. (The other component is ballpark: Posey plays half his games in a pitcher's park; Bautista plays half his in a stadium that favors neither pitcher nor hitter particularly.)

In truth, though, neither every team nor every situation has the same replacement level. A team that enters the off-season knowing its star third baseman will inaugurate the following campaign in rehab has time to recruit a fill-in whose talent level is closer to average. Similarly, a franchise with the advantages of a big market, payroll flexibility and a savvy front office can fish for bigger catches than can, say, the Padres.

None of which quite explains how three of the five most valuable Yankee position players are replacements. Presumably, DH Travis Hafner (.269/.387/.529), outfielder Vernon Wells (.270/.323/.477) and first baseman Lyle Overbay (.255/.292/.484) were available to the entire league. Indeed, Overbay, who compiled negative value for two teams last season before they cut him, is playing for the MLB equivalent of sofa cushion change -- $1.25 million. Yet the trio is filling in admirably for Alex Rodriguez/Kevin Youklis, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. 

It's important to note that although Hafner and Wells are viewed with jaundiced eyes, both have been above-average players for their careers. Pronk is being viewed against his heyday, which is long gone, and Wells against his contract, which was two years and $75 million more than was warranted. Wells delivered little for his $21 million each of the last two seasons, but the two before that he batted .275 and smacked 22 homers a season. Injuries have been Hafner's Achilles heal -- (ironically, he's suffered Biblically over the past decade, but an Achilles heal problem is not among his travails) -- but over the past four seasons, he's produced .268/.361/.453, or 25% above average.

The Sabermetric definition of replacement level for an outfielder is around a .600 OPS. The number wouldn't be much different for a DH or first baseman. Clearly, that is not the standard employed by the Yankees, whose three super-subs have published above-average chapters in April and May. Average OPS for premium hitting positions like corner outfield, DH and first basemen this year is roughly .744, a number cleared by Overbay and obliterated by Pronk and Wells.

Not every Yankee replacement is contending for an All-Star berth. Jayson Nix at shortstop (.230/.306/.294) has defined replacement-level while further burnishing Derek Jeter's bonafides. Eduardo Nunez, pressed into service at short when Kevin Youklis's bulging disc has required Nix to slide to third, is posting a .200/.290/.275 self-indictment with poor defense. With Youk back on the field, Joe Girardi can sit Nunez and endure just one offensive lost cause in the lineup.

Middle infielders who can swing a stick are hard to come by, even for the Yankees and even with lead time. Give a smart franchise time and money to plug holes at positions accustomed to big thumpers and apparently they can deliver starting quality players. Or maybe they've just been unbelievably lucky.

Buck'ed Up

I don't mean to pick on Derek Jeter, particularly in a vulnerable moment for him. The guy's rehabbing in god-forsaken Trenton in the twilight of his career and on the verge of a milestone hit. In his absence, the Yankees have won 14 of 17, the team's stand-in leadoff hitters have posted a .400 on base average and his replacement at short, Eduardo Nunez, has batted .300.

I've made pretty clear that Jeter is one of the five or six greatest shortstops of all time, just not the superhero his supporters make him out to be. His reputation for unparalleled leadership, Gold Glove fielding and "clutch" play are chimerical notions assembled out of wisps of wind by delusional admirers. One of his signature career plays never even happened -- the one where he supposedly dove into the stands to make a catch on a foul ball and then came out bloody and dazed.

If you're wondering why people like me bang on Jeter, allow me to provide you with two words: Joe Buck. Buck worships at the Jeter shrine and rambles incoherently on national television with paeans to the Yankee captain. Today was another embarrassing case in point.

During an insightful discussion started by Tim McCarver about how players age, Buck allowed that Jeter has ebbed at bat and in the field, but would be the guy he'd want fielding the ball with the bases loaded in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series ... here's the fun part ... if it was hit right to him.

If you don't understand why this comment is a dereliction of common sense, I'm not sure any explanation matters, but let's take one perfunctory stab. Buck asserts that even though he's lost some of his baseball skills at age 37, Jeter is still "clutch."  In those categories in which we can quantify things, Buck has been forced to acknowledge that Jeter is listing towards below average. But in an arena in which he can continue to delude himself without factual contradiction, Buck has decided to call Jeter "the best." The best at what? At something every Double-A shortstop does routinely.

This is the kind of nonsense that sends baseball fans who actually care about facts into paroxysms of disbelief. Someone at Fox ought to clue Joe Buck in: these kinds of statements don't polish Derek Jeter's reputation; they stain yours.

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