Seamheads long ago established the notion of a "replacement-level player" as the level of production a team could expect from a a freely available replacement -- generally considered a journeyman Quadruple-A player -- if their star suddenly succumbed to injury, illness or severe knuckleheadedness. (See: Ramirez, Manny) Its purpose is to divine the real value of a player, much the way we buy homeowner's insurance based on the cost of rebuilding the house rather on its market value.
Replacement level hitting for a right fielder is necessarily a more stringent standard than for a second baseman because right fielders who can hit .250 with 15 home runs come free with a purchase of 10 gallons of gas, whereas middle infielders who can hit their weight make Major League rosters as long as they bring their own gloves.
This explains (in part) why catcher Buster Posey, with a .919 OPS so far this year has been worth about 2.3 wins with the bat, while right fielder Jose Bautista, with a .975 OPS, has been worth just 1.7 wins. (The other component is ballpark: Posey plays half his games in a pitcher's park; Bautista plays half his in a stadium that favors neither pitcher nor hitter particularly.)
In truth, though, neither every team nor every situation has the same replacement level. A team that enters the off-season knowing its star third baseman will inaugurate the following campaign in rehab has time to recruit a fill-in whose talent level is closer to average. Similarly, a franchise with the advantages of a big market, payroll flexibility and a savvy front office can fish for bigger catches than can, say, the Padres.
None of which quite explains how three of the five most valuable Yankee position players are replacements. Presumably, DH Travis Hafner (.269/.387/.529), outfielder Vernon Wells (.270/.323/.477) and first baseman Lyle Overbay (.255/.292/.484) were available to the entire league. Indeed, Overbay, who compiled negative value for two teams last season before they cut him, is playing for the MLB equivalent of sofa cushion change -- $1.25 million. Yet the trio is filling in admirably for Alex Rodriguez/Kevin Youklis, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira.
It's important to note that although Hafner and Wells are viewed with jaundiced eyes, both have been above-average players for their careers. Pronk is being viewed against his heyday, which is long gone, and Wells against his contract, which was two years and $75 million more than was warranted. Wells delivered little for his $21 million each of the last two seasons, but the two before that he batted .275 and smacked 22 homers a season. Injuries have been Hafner's Achilles heal -- (ironically, he's suffered Biblically over the past decade, but an Achilles heal problem is not among his travails) -- but over the past four seasons, he's produced .268/.361/.453, or 25% above average.
The Sabermetric definition of replacement level for an outfielder is around a .600 OPS. The number wouldn't be much different for a DH or first baseman. Clearly, that is not the standard employed by the Yankees, whose three super-subs have published above-average chapters in April and May. Average OPS for premium hitting positions like corner outfield, DH and first basemen this year is roughly .744, a number cleared by Overbay and obliterated by Pronk and Wells.
Not every Yankee replacement is contending for an All-Star berth. Jayson Nix at shortstop (.230/.306/.294) has defined replacement-level while further burnishing Derek Jeter's bonafides. Eduardo Nunez, pressed into service at short when Kevin Youklis's bulging disc has required Nix to slide to third, is posting a .200/.290/.275 self-indictment with poor defense. With Youk back on the field, Joe Girardi can sit Nunez and endure just one offensive lost cause in the lineup.
Middle infielders who can swing a stick are hard to come by, even for the Yankees and even with lead time. Give a smart franchise time and money to plug holes at positions accustomed to big thumpers and apparently they can deliver starting quality players. Or maybe they've just been unbelievably lucky.
Showing posts with label Travis Hafner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Travis Hafner. Show all posts
11 May 2013
The Bronx: The Place to Be
Had you examined the Washington Nationals a week ago, when they were scuffling with the .500 monster, you'd have seen a team of all upside. Lady Luck hadn't been kind to Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, and Dan Haren's sub-replacement activities screamed "$13 million wasted!"
The non-Bryce division of the offense had been flirting with Mario Mendoza and poked just 11 more homers than their left-fielder alone. Expensive first baseman re-signee, Adam LaRoche had been out-hit by some pitchers. Second base had been a black hole of offense.
And yet, after four wins in five games, the Nats have moved within hailing distance of first place. A few switch-flips later -- LaRoche is a notoriously streaky batter -- and Washington, no longer first in war or peace, can again be first in the NL East.
As for the AL East, Las Vegas bookmakers are hiding under their desks. In a year in which the Red Sox were rebuilding, the Yankees were taking a luxury cap-induced hiatus and the Orioles were falling to earth -- they weren't! The three teams are tied for the top of the toughest division with .600+ winning percentages.
Boston and Baltimore are pounding the ball -- can you say Daniel Nava? Chris Davis? And the Yankees, well.
After Robby Cano, New York's top offensive performers are all placeholders -- Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Francisco Cervelli, Ichiro Suzuki. Their starting staff, with the sole exception of Ivan Nova, is clamping down on opponents while the Sandman warms up his Hall of Fame arm. Having lost a virtual All-Star team to the DL, New York is somehow still exercising its Manifest Destiny to the top of the standings.
The Bombers lost 164 home runs to free agency and injury in the off-season and yet still lead the AL in that category. Fulltime DH Travis Hafner, one of the many reclamation projects on the roster, deserves some of the credit. Pronk is the most dramatic example of once-productive players who fell into the Yankees' arms and have delivered this season.
A superstar slugger for three years mid-decade, Hafner has struggled to stay on the field since 2008. This year, at age 36 but without a defensive position to concern him, he has so far avoided injury and pounded out a .284/.408/.568 performance for the Yankees.
It's a similar story for 34-year-old Vernon Wells. With his massive salary off-loaded to Toronto and Anaheim, New York is getting the performance. Filling in for a host of injured outfielders, Wells has delivered with the glove and the wood, hitting .294/.346/.504.
Even better, these senior citizens won't have to over-perform all season. When Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira return, Joe Girardi will send Hafner, Wells and their compadres back to spot duty.
If it can ever be a good time to live in the Bronx, now is the time. Come the All-Star break, the home nine will improve dramatically. Disappointing Tampa and Toronto can be expected to do the same, but they have ground to make up. Boston and Baltimore, who are square with the Yankees now, will need to make trading deadline moves to keep up.
Yep, the Bronx: it's the place to be.
The non-Bryce division of the offense had been flirting with Mario Mendoza and poked just 11 more homers than their left-fielder alone. Expensive first baseman re-signee, Adam LaRoche had been out-hit by some pitchers. Second base had been a black hole of offense.
And yet, after four wins in five games, the Nats have moved within hailing distance of first place. A few switch-flips later -- LaRoche is a notoriously streaky batter -- and Washington, no longer first in war or peace, can again be first in the NL East.
As for the AL East, Las Vegas bookmakers are hiding under their desks. In a year in which the Red Sox were rebuilding, the Yankees were taking a luxury cap-induced hiatus and the Orioles were falling to earth -- they weren't! The three teams are tied for the top of the toughest division with .600+ winning percentages.
Boston and Baltimore are pounding the ball -- can you say Daniel Nava? Chris Davis? And the Yankees, well.
After Robby Cano, New York's top offensive performers are all placeholders -- Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Francisco Cervelli, Ichiro Suzuki. Their starting staff, with the sole exception of Ivan Nova, is clamping down on opponents while the Sandman warms up his Hall of Fame arm. Having lost a virtual All-Star team to the DL, New York is somehow still exercising its Manifest Destiny to the top of the standings.
The Bombers lost 164 home runs to free agency and injury in the off-season and yet still lead the AL in that category. Fulltime DH Travis Hafner, one of the many reclamation projects on the roster, deserves some of the credit. Pronk is the most dramatic example of once-productive players who fell into the Yankees' arms and have delivered this season.
A superstar slugger for three years mid-decade, Hafner has struggled to stay on the field since 2008. This year, at age 36 but without a defensive position to concern him, he has so far avoided injury and pounded out a .284/.408/.568 performance for the Yankees.
It's a similar story for 34-year-old Vernon Wells. With his massive salary off-loaded to Toronto and Anaheim, New York is getting the performance. Filling in for a host of injured outfielders, Wells has delivered with the glove and the wood, hitting .294/.346/.504.
Even better, these senior citizens won't have to over-perform all season. When Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira return, Joe Girardi will send Hafner, Wells and their compadres back to spot duty.
If it can ever be a good time to live in the Bronx, now is the time. Come the All-Star break, the home nine will improve dramatically. Disappointing Tampa and Toronto can be expected to do the same, but they have ground to make up. Boston and Baltimore, who are square with the Yankees now, will need to make trading deadline moves to keep up.
Yep, the Bronx: it's the place to be.
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