The Braves Are in More Trouble Than the Phillies

There's been a lot of chatter in the baseball sphere about the crash of Philadelphia's multi-year rebuild. The Phils have the worst record in the game in 2017, the year their youth movement was supposed to bear fruit. It's the fifth straight season they have fielded a sub-.500 team.

It may be that the front office overestimated the talent of their rebuilding core, or they poorly developed them. It could be that the core has struggled in unity as prelude to a system-wide breakout. Perhaps we'll find out next season. This squad is fat with potential.

Home of the Braves
The Braves teardown began one year later, and with the new ballpark in the suburbs opening this season, there was hope the team would be ready to shine. Atlanta has taken a different road than Philadelphia, attempting to weave veterans in with the graduating Minor Leaguers as they look to improve.

As a result, the Braves have bounced back quicker. They stand today 10 games clear of the Phils after finishing three behind last season.

However...
And certainly the Braves seem to have some better assets. Freddie Freeman is a certified star in this game. Had he not missed a month of play he would be part of the NL MVP discussion. Ender Inciarte is a superb center fielder who can hit a little and Mike Foltynewicz shows a great deal of promise on the mound. Freeman and Inciarte are superior to anyone the Phils can run out daily.

Yet, the Braves' rebuild, masked by veteran talent, is in much worse shape. Nick Markakis has delivered as advertised on his three year deal, and Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips have returned from the dead with solid contributions. The backstop pairing of Flowers and Suzuki has been a revelation. R.A. Dickey is eating innings and while Bartolo Colon was a bust, they jettisoned him early to limit the damage.

All over 30, those guys are supposed to be a bridge to the good times, not their main source. The youngsters were supposed to start toddling without help by now. Instead, #1 pick Dansby Swanson, Julio Teheran and several of the younger pitchers have stepped back this year, and no one from the farm has burst on the scene Judgelike.

In short, there's nothing to dream on here.

It's been a long summer in Philadelphia, much longer than in brand new Sun Trust Park. But the return to contention may take a lot longer in Marietta.

Are the Braves Punting 2015?

They'll pay Dan Uggla $13.2 milion to stay away from their infield this season. 

They'll fatten B.J. Upton's bank account by $46.5 million for three years of keeping dust from accumulating on the dugout bench. Either that or he'll occupy a lineup spot and cost them a win against replacement.

Rather than losing Jason Heyward to the free market after this season, they traded him to St. Louis with reliever Jordan Walden for promising starter Shelby Miller.

They plugged Nick Markakis into Heyward's slot for four years at $44 million at a cost of two-to-three wins against replacement a year. 

They non-tendered TJ rehabbers Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen. The pair may or may not re-sign with the team.

Either GM John Hart -- who assembled the mid-90s Indians -- is an evil genius or it's something of a rebuild in Atlanta these days. This comes a year after they inked their best young ballers -- Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons and Julio Teheran -- to long term deals.

It appears the Braves have their eyes not on 2015 but on 2017, when their new park opens in the suburbs. Everyone not nailed down, or reeking of future value, is on the trading block. We're looking at you, Evan Gattis. You're a fine asset as a slugging catcher, but your late start means you'll enter your 30s in 2017 with your prospects in steep decline.*

Hart is looking at Justin Upton, too. The 27-year-old standout hit 32% above average last season, but he's only under contract one more year. Hart will undoubtedly be shopping both players at the Winter Meetings for pre-arb talent, minor leaguers and international signing slots.

If successful, that means the surging Mets and Marlins could overtake the Braves next season as they battle the Phillies to avoid the NL East cellar. It could get ugly in Atlanta before it gets exciting in Marietta.



* Special bonus fact: Evan Gattis has walked exactly as many times in each of his two MLB seasons as he's homered. He needs to walk 45 times in 2015.

Houston, You Have A Problem

Got to see a team dressed as the Astros play for the first time today. It was obviously the JV, because they couldn't catch or hit. When does the varsity play?

That squad is Lake Wobegon in a contra-universe where protons have a negative charge and strikeouts benefit the team at bat. If Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt were alive today, they'd be turning over in their lockers. 

After Berkman, I'm not sure this roster has a single above-average offensive player. Maybe Hunter Pence, who looks, runs and bats like a stork. I wouldn't be surprised if a nut came loose and he fell apart. And Carlos Lee can smack the ball, but he couldn't catch a cold at a pre-school. He looked like a windshield wiper trying to run after a ball hit over his head.

This hasn't happened by accident. Since the waning days of the Killer-B's, Houston management has made 82 wins its goal. Trading the future for respectability while your stars age leaves you with a roster of has-beens, and then aren't-anymores.

It will become apparent by mid-season that the Astros should auction off Berkman and Oswalt for young talent and build a new structure from scratch. Because there isn't even anything here to rehab.

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