Houston: We Don't Have a Problem

"Low expectations are the key to happiness."

-- A wise man

The New York Yankees are two games over .500 and Big Apple sports talk airwaves are atwitter -- as is Twitter itself -- with doomsday rhetoric. Manager Joe Girardi has to keep his resume fresh.

In their final season in the National League, the Houston Astros are 18-22 and inducing -- if not glee, then at least gratification. Manager Brad Mills may soon find himself being fitted for a bronze likeness. Thank goodness for low expectations.

Following a dismal 56-106 season in which they finally converted high-priced veterans into batches of prospects, the 'Stros were tabbed for a 2012 as ugly as diaper rash. Las Vegas put the over-under on 98.5 losses. Baseball Prospectus's million pre-season simulations averaged 100 losses for Houston.

Having clung for half-a-decade to a mediocrity-or-bust philosophy featuring aging veterans far beyond their expiration dates, it finally all went sour for the Houston franchise last year. A new owner dismissed baseball's worst general manager and began disassembling the roster in full rebuild mode. In 2011 alone, Houston flipped its remaining veteran assets, Jeff Keppinger, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourne, for 10 potential future stars.

Entering this season, fans at Minute Maid Park were slated to be treated to little more than a minor league club. Besides slugger Carlos Lee, no Astro batter had accumulated more than 20 career homers or 120 lifetime RBIs. Not withstanding starters Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris, and closer Brett Meyers,there might not have been a pitcher on their roster whom a contending team would employ.*

*Okay, almost any team would love to pay 28-year-old righty reliever Wilton Lopez $442K to bring his sub-three ERA and nearly 5-1 K/BB ratio to a mound near them. But since you've never heard of Wilton Lopez, I thought I could get away with ignoring him.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the basement. The Astros are tied for fifth in the league in scoring with such a balanced attack that no one sports an OPS over .806 (near-rookie second baseman Jose Altuve), no one has bopped more than five home runs (Red Sox castoff shortstop Jed Lowrie), and only two regulars have reached safely even 35% of the time (Lowrie and Lee). Paradoxically, this bodes well: it's hard to see where the expected regression is going to come from.

The pitching has also pleasantly surprised, with a middle-of-the-league performance featuring veterans Rodriguez and Bud Norris, and rejuvenated relievers Meyers and Brandon Lyon. 

Still, the Astros no longer value a .501 record. Everything they do in 2012 under new GM Jeff Luhnow is a long-term investment. Lee, Meyers, Lyon and Rodriguez, all 30-somethings with swollen price tags, could be gone by year's end in favor of promising farm stock. Already, young pitchers Paul Clemens, Aneury Rodriguez and Jordan Lyles, and first base blue-chipper Brett Wallace are slated for action with the big club. Management is not particularly concerned with whether this team finishes above the Cubs and Pirates in the standings, as long as they make progress towards winning the city's first baseball championship.

All of which provides a foundation of low expectations on which to build a record. 70-92 would look awfully good.

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Houston, You Have A Problem

Got to see a team dressed as the Astros play for the first time today. It was obviously the JV, because they couldn't catch or hit. When does the varsity play?

That squad is Lake Wobegon in a contra-universe where protons have a negative charge and strikeouts benefit the team at bat. If Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt were alive today, they'd be turning over in their lockers. 

After Berkman, I'm not sure this roster has a single above-average offensive player. Maybe Hunter Pence, who looks, runs and bats like a stork. I wouldn't be surprised if a nut came loose and he fell apart. And Carlos Lee can smack the ball, but he couldn't catch a cold at a pre-school. He looked like a windshield wiper trying to run after a ball hit over his head.

This hasn't happened by accident. Since the waning days of the Killer-B's, Houston management has made 82 wins its goal. Trading the future for respectability while your stars age leaves you with a roster of has-beens, and then aren't-anymores.

It will become apparent by mid-season that the Astros should auction off Berkman and Oswalt for young talent and build a new structure from scratch. Because there isn't even anything here to rehab.

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Jolly Well Done!

If you want evidence that the best Hot Stove deals come after all the big wood is burned, this past week provides it.

First, the Astros leave their history of knucklehead contracts behind them and ink Brett Myers to a one-year, $5 million deal. Then, the Dodgers reap the benefit of swimming in the shallow end of the salary pool by nailing down outfielder Matt Kemp for two years at $10.95 million, and starting pitcher Chad Billingsley for one year at $3.85 million.

Then today, speaking of putting knucklehead contracts in the past, the Diamondbacks admit their mistake a cut loose Eric Byrnes, despite owing him $11 million.

Each of these moves will make their teams better. L.A.'s Trolley Hoppers sidestep arbitration and all that entails with their star duo, resulting in raises of $3.4 million for Billingsley and $5 million for Kemp. Billingsley struggled in the second half last year, so the one-year deal gives the Dodgers another season to evaluate him before committing longer-term. In his first four MLB campaigns, he's demonstrated durability, posted a 3.55 ERA, and struck out twice as many as he's walked. The arrow points up.

Kemp has also drawn major league paychecks since 2006, earning notice for his bat, glove and legs. A Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and 85 steals in 109 attempts is a great way to start a career. The contract covers the rest of his arbitration years -- I think -- so I would have liked to see a longer deal from management's perspective, but they did get some savings in exchange for two years of salary certainty for Kemp.

The Myers deal may or may not net Houston an ace to complement Roy Oswalt, but $5 million is half the going rate for an average #3/4 innings-eater. Meyers has a checkered history, but the white squares look awfully good, and if he's healthy following his injury-flecked 2009 (and I assume the Astros know a decent physician who could do Myers' physical) his contract offers nearly all upside.

The best move of the bunch is Byrnes' goodbye party. Too bad for the fans in Phoenix that it required one of the dumbest signings ever to make it so. Eric Byrnes was a speedy but brittle outfielder with a good glove and an average bat by the time he turned 30. Byrnes is also a quintessential Californian character -- nickname Crash Test Dummy -- whose highlight reel catches and headfirst slides endeared him to fans and obscured the truth about his abilities. After he posted his best season ever at age 31 (.286/.353/.460 with 50 steals, which is pretty average outfield stuff, not withstanding the baserunning), Arizona brass rewarded him with three years and 30 million thank yous for smiling and getting dirty a lot.

Alas, they neglected to notice that 2007 was the first time Byrnes had stayed healthy for even 144 games, the first time he'd posted a .350 OBP and the first time he'd stolen even 30 bases. They paid him for his previous season just as his future began to fade, and in his age 32 and 33 years combined he stayed upright for just 136 games, posting OPS of .641 and .663 and contributing right about the level of a random AAA call-up.

So why cut Byrnes loose when you have to pay him eleven large? Because as long as he's not contributing, you might as well call up the AAA guy and give him a chance. Why waste at-bats on a 34-year-old has-been back-up, when you can let a new guy bob for apples at the company Halloween Party on the off chance that he might get one.

This move directly benefits persons answering to the names Ryan Roberts, Cole Gillespie and Rusty Ryal, a trio of fourth outfielder wannbees who spent '09 plying their trade in places like Mobile, AL and Reno, NV, but mostly it shows that Diamonback GM Josh Byrnes (no relation) understands the concept of a sunk cost. There are plenty of clubs that would have weighed down their rosters with Byrnes just because they're paying him the big bucks, but the money is spent either way, so the D-backs might as well make the optimum move for their pennant chances.

There's still another Adam Dunn '09 deal (two years, $20 million for a guy worth $30-$36 million) to be made out there, but it will take patience, intelligence and some luck. I'll be watching.
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