The Braves Won the Trade and Lost the Season

Of all the moves consummated so far this off-season, one of the most intriguing involves the Braves and Diamondbacks, in which the D-backs get an orange in exchange for some shiny rocks.

That is, Arizona knows what its end of the deal brings: Shelby Miller and a Single-A pitching prospect, which is to say, Shelby Miller. The 25-year-old righty enters his fourth season cost-controlled with a 3.22 lifetime ERA. If your immediate aim is a pennant, which is the profile of a team that signs Zack Greinke to a fat contract, Miller is a find.

Atlanta, by dealing Miller, is telling us what we already suspected: damn the torpedoes; full speed ahead to 2018. That's the year after the franchise basks in the fresh bloom of a new stadium in a new town.

So the Braves cashed in Miller for a haul of youthful talent. First, there's Ender Inciarte, also 25, who is all batting average, speed and outfield defense. Atlanta's young pitchers will appreciate his glove behind them in the field, not so much the lack of run support he'll contribute to.

Promising Triple-A hurler, 24-year-old Aaron Blair, might be one of those pitchers soon. Low strikeout totals belie low ERAs in high scoring environments. A good addition to a rebuilding club.

Then there's homeboy Dansby Swanson, the shiniest object in the bag. A shortstop out of Vanderbilt selected with the #1 pick in last year's amateur draft, he did nothing to diminish his status as a 21-year-old in Single-A. If your eye is on a distant horizon, the most recent #1 pick is a nice prize.

So the Braves relinquished their second-best starter, but got back a good defensive outfielder, a pitching prospect and a potential star at middle infield. It's the riskier side of the equation and its payoff will take a couple of years, but the likelihood is the scales will tip their way in the long run. That's the side you want to be on if you're not concerned about the present.

John Hart Is A Big Fat Lying Poopyhead

If you had recently inherited the Atlanta Braves' GM job you might have noticed that your team skidded to a 21-35 second half record, tallied the second fewest runs in baseball and face increasing competition from the restocked Marlins, rejuvenated Mets and double-barreled Nationals.

You might be bucking against the limited budget, $46.5 million of which will drain into the bank account of B.J. Upton for three years of pre-game batting practice.

It probably does not escape your attention that while you've locked up four of your young studs, your two outfield stallions are knocking on free agency's door. Maybe most importantly, you're moving to a new suburban home in 2017 and would like the team's zenith to coincide with its early years in Marietta.

What do to? Wisely jettison half your home run output for future value. Flip the two outfielders a year from house shopping elsewhere, along with your slugging semi-catcher whose value has roughly a three-year expiration date.

All that, new GM John Hart has done. The result, of course is that the Braves will arm wrestle the Phillies for early 2016 draft picks. Beyond that, the franchise is already deep into divorce proceedings with downtown Atlanta even though they remain legally betrothed.

So Hart is attempting to smear some proverbial lipstick on the proverbial pig, promising the metro that their team will compete in 2015. Management is committed to winning this season, we're doing everything to field a competitive team, we're not sacrificing the present for the future, the check's in the mail and we'll respect you in the morning.

If he were made of wood we could watch his nose grow.

Hart is doing exactly what he should with the roster, focusing on exactly the right page of the calendar for the franchise. He was an innovator as GM in Cleveland and he hasn't forgotten how to ply his trade. He's spewing the cliches he feels are necessary to keep season ticket sales stoked.

But it won't take long for Atlanta fans to smell the body odor from this lineup. When new import Nick Markakis, averaging 16 homers a year, is your number two long ball threat, well, B.J. Upton might get some playing time after all.

Hart is full of it, it being something other than short-term answers. If the trades were deft and the returns as useful as they appear, it should be a short reload in northern Georgia.

Just not in Atlanta.

Are the Braves Punting 2015?

They'll pay Dan Uggla $13.2 milion to stay away from their infield this season. 

They'll fatten B.J. Upton's bank account by $46.5 million for three years of keeping dust from accumulating on the dugout bench. Either that or he'll occupy a lineup spot and cost them a win against replacement.

Rather than losing Jason Heyward to the free market after this season, they traded him to St. Louis with reliever Jordan Walden for promising starter Shelby Miller.

They plugged Nick Markakis into Heyward's slot for four years at $44 million at a cost of two-to-three wins against replacement a year. 

They non-tendered TJ rehabbers Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen. The pair may or may not re-sign with the team.

Either GM John Hart -- who assembled the mid-90s Indians -- is an evil genius or it's something of a rebuild in Atlanta these days. This comes a year after they inked their best young ballers -- Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons and Julio Teheran -- to long term deals.

It appears the Braves have their eyes not on 2015 but on 2017, when their new park opens in the suburbs. Everyone not nailed down, or reeking of future value, is on the trading block. We're looking at you, Evan Gattis. You're a fine asset as a slugging catcher, but your late start means you'll enter your 30s in 2017 with your prospects in steep decline.*

Hart is looking at Justin Upton, too. The 27-year-old standout hit 32% above average last season, but he's only under contract one more year. Hart will undoubtedly be shopping both players at the Winter Meetings for pre-arb talent, minor leaguers and international signing slots.

If successful, that means the surging Mets and Marlins could overtake the Braves next season as they battle the Phillies to avoid the NL East cellar. It could get ugly in Atlanta before it gets exciting in Marietta.



* Special bonus fact: Evan Gattis has walked exactly as many times in each of his two MLB seasons as he's homered. He needs to walk 45 times in 2015.