Why the Mets Are Thrilled That Cespedes Might Opt Out

Pity the poor Mets and Cubs. They signed Yoenis Cespedes and Dexter Fowler, respectively, to multi-year deals with first year opt outs. Each is tearing it up and likely to move on to heftier paydays after this season.

Cespedes is slashing .273/.347/.593, among the league leaders in
dingers and playing a lovely center field. Fowler has topped that, slashing .312/.434/.512 in addition to his usual bag of tricks like defense and baserunning.

So you can just imagine Mets GM Sandy Alderson and Cubs management guru Theo Epstein doing cartwheels.

Wait, what?

Yeah, cartwheels.

Both Cespedes and Fowler will be 31 next year. The odds that 2016 is their zenith are strikingly high. That's particularly true because they are currently center fielders, a position that demands youth like a boy band.  In addition, each is playing out of his mind. Cespedes has doubled his walk rate; Fowler has added 60 points of OBP to his career high.

So the Mets and Cubs got great value from the deals they struck with these players, essentially one-year contracts. One great year.

If they leave, someone else will overpay them based on their career-best season, and maybe into their baseball dotage. Sandy and Theo can spend their money on another big outfield bat with a one-year opt out. Cespedes and Fowler win the lottery and the ball clubs get a year each of great performance. Everybody's happy, even the agents, who pocket 10% of bigger numbers.

The player opt-out is now paradoxically the antidote to the late-contract overpay. And when it's inserted after one year, the team gets an extra-motivated player.

Is Jason Heyward Realy Worth a Spadillion Bucks?

Named the nation's #1 travel destination the past three years, my hometown of Charleston SC is what you would call a destination. People accept jobs paying a lot less money to live here in the 29401.

The 60613 is becoming a destination too. That's the zip code for the iconic structure at 1060 W Addison St. on Chicago's Northside. Both Ben Zobrist and now Jason Heyward have agreed to bring their lunch pails to the shrine on that site for the next several years, despite more lucrative offers to ply their trade elsewhere.

The newest Wrigley Field denizens join John Lackey as 2016 additions to a squad that roared to 97 wins and a spot in the League Championship Series in 2015. Both said at their signings that they wanted to be part of the crew that brought a World Series title to Cub fans after 108 years.

Heyward: Just .268, 16 HR 59 RBI
The predictable blowback on Heyward's haul began the minute word of his eight-year, $184 million deal hit Twitter. Heyward is the prototype of the baseball player undervalued even in 2015 by casual fans and those not yet sophisticated in the ways of baseball analysis, such as many of the media's self-described baseball analysts. But here's why Theo Epstein is a millionaire and a future Hall of Fame front office guy while your average baseball writer is still struggling to understand OPS.

In his six-year career, Jason Heyward has averaged a mere .268, 16 HR and 59 RBI. If that's how you see the world, Heyward is a fringe starter in the outfield. And if that's how you see the world, give my regards to the woolly mammoth.

We've learned over the last 38 years that those three numbers are weak diagnostic instruments. Heyward's walking proclivities and double & triple power show up in his laudable .353/.431 OBP/SLG numbers. His 86 steals in just 113 attempts, combined with superb baserunning prowess, add to his value. Defense that dazzles the eye as well as the stat sheet adds more fuel to the fire, so that by the time you're done, you have a five-win player who's just entering his age-26 prime.

In other words, Heyward is all the things that traditional measures, like cubits and pieces of silver, don't measure. He gets on base without the gaudy batting average. He slugs doubles and triples, not homers. He's circumspect about his base-stealing, but highly efficient. He fields all three outfield positions and scores on doubles -- things that don't show up in the boxscore.

For the Cubs, there's even more value. Heyward can staff the central pasture and offset some of the defensive pain inflicted by two all-bat corner catastrophes -- Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler.  And his addition in Chicago is subtraction from St. Louis, the Cubs' chief rival and tormentor.

Murderers Row, 2016
As for easily-dismissed broad skills, Ben Zobrist is much the same, and with full infield defensive flexibility. He and Heyward join Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Schwarber, Soler, Miguel Montero and Addison Russell as the Cubs' starting lineup if the season began today. (Sadly, it doesn't.) The guy squatting behind the dish flashes a lifetime .343 OBP while averaging 15 home runs-a-year -- and bats seventh in this lineup. Sheesh.

With Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and John Lackey flummoxing opposition bats, Hector Rondon turning out the lights and Joe Maddon pulling the levers, it's no wonder free agents are turning down marginal bags of money to hop on the Wrigley Express. They will be young and loaded in 2016 -- and Theo might not even be done.

Dexter Fowler is the Joe Maddon Edge

Ever since Lou Piniella took the helm of the then-putrid Tampa Bay Then-Devil Rays, the baseball universe has become pretty savvy about the lack of impact a manager can have on his team. Despite unreasonable expectations of their 55-win franchise going into the 2003 season -- which is to say, any -- Sweet Lou guided his squads to 99, 91 and 95 losses before he stalked off to the golf course.

There is no managing wizardry that can transform a team starting Toby Hall, Damian Rolls and Al Martin (at DH!) into a contender. And now most baseball fans recognize that.

So excitement was muted, but still detectable, when Joe Maddon took the reins of the Cubs this year. Maddon is a perennial All-Star at his craft, both on the field and in the clubhouse, and he's bringing that deft touch to the North side, alongside a whip-smart front office of team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer.

That enthusiasm around Wrigley was vindicated this week when Maddon got his publicly stated wish to land a leadoff batter who first and foremost gets on base. The Cubs traded spare parts for outfielder Dexter Fowler and his .366 on base percentage.

There are still managers, say, Ned Yost and Dusty Baker, who aren't sold on this simple formula. They're still locked in on the 1937 model of leadoff hitter -- a powerless speed merchant regardless of his ability to get aboard. That's the guy they want getting the most at bats on the team. And 1937-mentality managers don't lobby their superiors for 2015 assets, the way Joe Maddon does.

Not only does Maddon know better, so do the people who hired him. When Hoyer reels in a legitimate fire-starter, he knows that Maddon has a plan to exploit that asset. Ironically, while Fowler is a road runner, he steals bases only occasionally and, generally, at an unproductive rate. His value is entirely in the 189 occasions last season he reached base safely for the batter following him, in 505 opportunities.

So for Dexter Fowler, and the dozens of other small advantages that Maddon appears to accumulate over a season, Cubs fans have the right to feel a little quiver. Their time is yet nigh, but it is coming.

The Cubs Win the Pennant! The Cubs Win the Pennant!

In three years, when the Cubs win the NL Central, we'll look back to a little-noticed signing back on Monday as the watershed event.

Continuing a trend that has been documented here before, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer locked up future star first baseman Anthony Rizzo for the next seven -- and possibly nine -- years. The $41 million contract provides Rizzo with a big raise over his 2013 salary of $498K, sidesteps four years of arbitration and buys out year one of free agency. It also allows the team to retain Rizzo's services in 2020 and 2021 for $14.5 million each year, a mere pittance by then if Rizzo is even a twinkle of his current potential.

In case you're wondering why the fuss, this is it: The 240-pound Floridian has been a hot prospect since Theo drafted him for the Red Sox, Hoyer traded for him when he worked for the Padres and then again when they joined forces in Chicago.

In his 125 Major League games with the Cubs, Rizzo has vindicated his supporters, hitting .282/.344/.482 and 24 homers -- about a 33 home run pace. The lefty has abused pitchers from both sides, home and away, and in the dog days. And he's just 23.

A decade ago, Rizzo might have elicited yawns. Shake a tree and a slugging first baseman falls out. Pujols, Teixeira, Thome, Helton, Delgado, Morneau, Konerko, Palmeiro and the list went on. Today though, first base is no longer the premium offensive position. After Votto, Gonzalez and Fielder it drops off precipitously to the likes of Ike Davis and Eric Hosmer. 

So if he's such a stud, why sign away his future? For reasons we've documented before having to do with the marginal utility of money. Rizzo is now guaranteed $41 million even if he spontaneously combusts tomorrow. The millions he might be leaving on the table mean a lot less to him than the millions he is now guaranteed. Starting today, the Rizzo clan is set for life. Nix the deal and break his leg, and it could all go away. In effect, big league clubs are selling their young stars insurance, and keeping the premium for themselves. In addition, they avoid the psychic pain of arbitration battles.

It's another data point in a growing trend in MLB. Before the season, the D-backs inked Paul Goldschmidt to a similar contract. Allen Craig passed up arbitration and a year of free agency in his new deal with the Cardinals. The Brewers are already thrilled with their investment in catcher Jonathan Lucroy. He delivered 4.1 wins against replacement in their deal's first year (batting .320), recouping their $10 million guarantee, and then some, in the contract's first year.

With Rizzo and fellow 23-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro locked up through 2019, a boatload of money for free agents and a farm system stuffed fat with prospects, the Cubs' future is so bright they'll need sunblock. They're bottom feeders this year, but don't let that fool you. Epstein and Hoyer are building a solid club with creativity and cost-efficiency at Wrigley and they're going to win some pennants before the decade is out.

Traded to Madrid for Francisco Franco

I'd give my official South Atlantic League baseball, caught off the bat of a Savannah Sand Gnat at a Charleston (SC) RiverDogs game in 2003, to be a fly on Theo Epstein's wall following the announcement of Manny Ramirez's most recent pregnancy problems and subsequent decision to seek diplomatic immunity in Spain.

The new sitcom, Manny Being Retired, had to make the wunderkind GM shake his head in every conceivable direction. In the time since Epstein dealt the petulant hitting savant to the Dodgers in 2008, Ramirez has managed in turn: spectacular, inordinately costly, frustrating, very good, dismal,  relatively inexpensive and utterly useless -- all within two-and-a-half seasons. If that isn't Ramirez's formerly Hall of Fame career in a nutshell -- and where else would you put his career? -- Snooki is a Rhodes scholar.

Let's review: Finally exasperated with Ramirez's prescient Charlie Sheen imitation, Epstein jettisoned the under-performing bat and glove in mid-2008 along with a minor leaguer in a three-team deal that netted a year-and-a-half of Jason Bay. L.A. received half a season of Ramirez for a trio of prospects and he immediately began tearing the cover off the ball. In 53 games he scorched the NL for a 1.232 OPS, dragging the Dodgers into the playoffs and the League Championship Series.

Based on those otherworldly 187 at bats, the Dodgers signed their new hero to a gargantuan two-year contract. Anyone outside of (Dodger GM) Ned Colleti's immediate family who didn't see that marriage unraveling like (Dodger owner) Frank McCourt's probably thinks invading Iraq was a good idea.

Ramirez rewarded the Dodgers a month into the season by ringing up a 50-game suspension for steroid use. Although he hit a magnificent .290/.418/.531 in 104 games, he contributed nothing in the 58 games he missed, and contributed less than nothing with defense that could charitably be described as execrable.

Midway through year two of the contract and DL visit three for Ramirez, the Dodgers dumped his sideshow on the White Sox, getting absolutely nothing in return, and winning the trade comfortably. Ramirez improved his fielding in Chicago (he DH'd) but otherwise pooped the bed, accumulating two extra base hits over the last quarter of the season. He did get a haircut though, which inspired comparisons to Samson, though the only thing biblical about Ramirez were the plagues he wrought upon his teams.

It's tempting to think that because he used up a roster spot in Tampa Bay for only five games Ramirez had no impact on the Rays. But there is an opportunity cost to passing on other arrangements for DH based on the belief the position had been filled. Their next best option or three may now no longer be available to the Rays.

Which brings us back to Theo Epstein. When Ramirez was printing playoff tickets singlehandedly in Chavez Ravine during the 2008 season, there had to be some frustration in Boston. The soap opera since has served to remind Theo why he took Two-and-a-Half Excedrin off the air in New England. Moreover, when he considers the inexpensive season-and-a-half of Jason Bay that he leveraged  (.915 OPS, good defense and 16 of 19 steals) before wisely leaving Bay to the open market ($66-$80 million over five years), he's got to be doing the cha-cha behind his office door. And that will be helpful now that he's Dancing With the Stars Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, acquisitions he might not have been able to make had he continued to sink millions in Ramirez and the psychiatric office visits that would have necessitated.

Knowing when to fold is one of Theo's talents. It appears it's one of Ramirez's as well.
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Bottom of the Second

If the MLB season were a single game, we'd be in the bottom of the second inning. That's our barometer when determining whether a team can bounce back or print playoff tickets. 

Certainly if your team is behind 7-0 in the second inning, you'd be well-advised to bring in your 12th pitcher and let him eat innings, results be damned. No point in burning up your set-up guy for this disaster, right? 

At the same time, being down 2-1 in the second really doesn't tell us much. We could win this contest just as easily as lose it. Don't panic; stay the course.

In the case of the Boston Red Sox, they're down 4-2 in the second. It's certainly not an insurmountable lead -- under ordinary circumstances. The problem is, they're facing the other team's best pitcher, their own starter has used 58 pitches and his left-fielder is playing left-out with a tweaked hammy. Suddenly the two-run deficit looms larger, and the manager is going to have to make some decisions soon.

Disembarking from this tortured metaphor, the Sox teeter at .500, trailing New York by six and Tampa Bay by 6.5. The Yankees are as deep as the ocean. The Rays are young and nubile. Neither appears ripe for the picking, and they have walked over Boston (8-2) so far this season.

Moreover it's a worst case scenario for David Ortiz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Neither is likely to be an asset this year, or ever again. The team that won two World Series with Manny  and Big Poppy striking the fear of Beelzebub into opposition hurlers now sports Youklis and Pedroia as their top performers. They're fine players both, but pitchers' pants stay dry when facing them.

The Saux can't compete with the behemoths ahead of them with their rotation as currently constituted. If Josh Beckett (7.46 ERA) can't get it together, they are a team with three starters. The Rays' fifth starter -- Wade Davis -- has outperformed the entire Bosox staff, and there's more where he came from.

This was supposed to be Theo Epstein's foray into pitching and fielding, but the team is allowing 5 1/2 runs per game. The two outfield  defensive whizzes -- Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron -- are mangled. Gold Glove hot cornerman Adrian Beltre has channeled Dr. Strangeglove  and the best catching days of Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek are behind them.

It doesn't get any better soon. The schedule serves up Toronto, Detroit, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay this month.

So are the Red Sox doomed in 2010? Certainly not. The Yankees have coasted through a panoply of injuries and show no signs of deceleration. But the Rays might come back to earth and give Boston a chance to reel them in, and they lack the resources to acquire a key cog should they need it. For the Red Sox to exploit this possibility, they need to play much better going forward.

Boston's very astute front offiice is not going to panic, nor are they going to sacrifice the future for a futile swing at the present. I suspect they will give this team the rope to hang itself or swing across to the other side, as they will. They have enough talent to win and enough problems to show in a two-team race. Look for Theo to stay the course with one eye on 2011.

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A Phyrric Victory?

I've seen enough baseball to be very worried about Jon Lester in the wake of his no-hitter. I can hardly count the number of times I've seen a pitcher stay longer than he should in a game in order to achieve a milestone only to crack thereafter.

The poster child for that is Kerry Wood's 20-strikeout game in May of '98. Wood, a rookie, threw 122 pitches that game and 166 innings that year before his arm fell off, an injury from which he has really never fully recovered.

Lester, whose injury and illness history is inspiring and well-documented, threw 120 pitches in his no-hit start, a workload not usually allowed by the Red Sox brass. It's hard to imagine that he would have finished that game had he been pitching a three-hitter.

Owner John Henry, GM Theo Epstein and consultant Bill James have forgotten more baseball data than you and I and 27 of our friends have ever seen (and I've read James's books), so maybe they know something about Lester that we don't. I understand that they have arranged the rotation so that Lester gets an extra day's rest.

But history is littered with pitchers whose crowning achievement cost them a labrum, ulnar nerve or patellar tendon, and was the last good game they threw. I hope Jon Lester isn't on that list.