Why the Mets Are Thrilled That Cespedes Might Opt Out

Pity the poor Mets and Cubs. They signed Yoenis Cespedes and Dexter Fowler, respectively, to multi-year deals with first year opt outs. Each is tearing it up and likely to move on to heftier paydays after this season.

Cespedes is slashing .273/.347/.593, among the league leaders in
dingers and playing a lovely center field. Fowler has topped that, slashing .312/.434/.512 in addition to his usual bag of tricks like defense and baserunning.

So you can just imagine Mets GM Sandy Alderson and Cubs management guru Theo Epstein doing cartwheels.

Wait, what?

Yeah, cartwheels.

Both Cespedes and Fowler will be 31 next year. The odds that 2016 is their zenith are strikingly high. That's particularly true because they are currently center fielders, a position that demands youth like a boy band.  In addition, each is playing out of his mind. Cespedes has doubled his walk rate; Fowler has added 60 points of OBP to his career high.

So the Mets and Cubs got great value from the deals they struck with these players, essentially one-year contracts. One great year.

If they leave, someone else will overpay them based on their career-best season, and maybe into their baseball dotage. Sandy and Theo can spend their money on another big outfield bat with a one-year opt out. Cespedes and Fowler win the lottery and the ball clubs get a year each of great performance. Everybody's happy, even the agents, who pocket 10% of bigger numbers.

The player opt-out is now paradoxically the antidote to the late-contract overpay. And when it's inserted after one year, the team gets an extra-motivated player.

Dexter Fowler is the Joe Maddon Edge

Ever since Lou Piniella took the helm of the then-putrid Tampa Bay Then-Devil Rays, the baseball universe has become pretty savvy about the lack of impact a manager can have on his team. Despite unreasonable expectations of their 55-win franchise going into the 2003 season -- which is to say, any -- Sweet Lou guided his squads to 99, 91 and 95 losses before he stalked off to the golf course.

There is no managing wizardry that can transform a team starting Toby Hall, Damian Rolls and Al Martin (at DH!) into a contender. And now most baseball fans recognize that.

So excitement was muted, but still detectable, when Joe Maddon took the reins of the Cubs this year. Maddon is a perennial All-Star at his craft, both on the field and in the clubhouse, and he's bringing that deft touch to the North side, alongside a whip-smart front office of team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer.

That enthusiasm around Wrigley was vindicated this week when Maddon got his publicly stated wish to land a leadoff batter who first and foremost gets on base. The Cubs traded spare parts for outfielder Dexter Fowler and his .366 on base percentage.

There are still managers, say, Ned Yost and Dusty Baker, who aren't sold on this simple formula. They're still locked in on the 1937 model of leadoff hitter -- a powerless speed merchant regardless of his ability to get aboard. That's the guy they want getting the most at bats on the team. And 1937-mentality managers don't lobby their superiors for 2015 assets, the way Joe Maddon does.

Not only does Maddon know better, so do the people who hired him. When Hoyer reels in a legitimate fire-starter, he knows that Maddon has a plan to exploit that asset. Ironically, while Fowler is a road runner, he steals bases only occasionally and, generally, at an unproductive rate. His value is entirely in the 189 occasions last season he reached base safely for the batter following him, in 505 opportunities.

So for Dexter Fowler, and the dozens of other small advantages that Maddon appears to accumulate over a season, Cubs fans have the right to feel a little quiver. Their time is yet nigh, but it is coming.