Either inflation in baseball is going to be an Abominable Snowman the next few years or Red Sox management is daft. It might be some of both.
Ben Cherington just inked Rick Porcello to a four-year, $84 million contract, preventing their #3 starter from hitting free agency after the season. Now entering his sixth season at the tender age of 27, Rick Porcello is, well, a guy. He pitches innings -- which is what you want your pitcher to pitch. If he pitches tunafish, don't sign him to an $84 million deal.
Porcello doesn't strike out a boatload of batters, but he doesn't walk many either. He keeps the ball on the ground, which is a good idea in Fenway. Good infield defense, which Boston thinks it has, will help him.
On the other hand, even after his best season last year, Porcello has been an average pitcher over his career. If "average" had his picture taken, it would look like Rick Porcello. His lifetime ERA+ is 98, where 100 is median. He's earned more than two-and-a-half wins above replacement for his team once -- last season.
According to the Red Sox, young, durable but thoroughly ordinary Major League pitchers are worth $21 million a year in 2015.
For just $4 million more, they could have coaxed back Jon Lester during the off-season. Or at least that's what the Cubs threw at Lester in an open and competitive market -- $25 million a year. Now, Lester is three years older and his deal is two years longer, so that's $50 million for a 35- and 36-year-old.
But Lester eats Porcello's lunch -- for breakfast. His ERA since becoming a starter in 2008 is 25% better than average and he's accounted for four-and-a-half wins or more in five of those seven seasons. And like Porcello, Lester pitches innings, except more of them than Porcello.
In other words, Jon Lester : Rick Porcello :: pizza : grilled cheese. Similar, but oh so much better.
And yet, Lester's deal is not very different than Porcello's. It's a little different -- longer to an older player, but way more similar than the players are. Jon Lester's contract : Rick Porcello's contract :: cheese pizza : mushroom pizza.
Which tells us that either Red Sox management has gone all Ted Cruz or the team expects MLB to be swimming in a sea of money over the next four years that will balloon the going rate for Joe Starter to $21 million/year, or maybe even more.
The thing is, there's not much evidence of the former (although Pablo Sandoval may need to change his name to Exhibit A) and lots of the latter. MLB has $8 billion coming in through TV deals and its Alternative Media is bearing fruit, all on top of the cash cow that is New England sports fandom. So it's possible that Boston wants to keep Rick Porcello and if that costs $15 M/year so be it. Oh, did you say $20 million? Ha, let's just call it 21!
Showing posts with label Jon Lester. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jon Lester. Show all posts
11 December 2014
With Help Like That We'd Prefer Hinderance
I got a kick out of this line from the description of the Jon Lester signing by the Cubs:
"Lester was dealt by the Red Sox to Oakland at the trade deadline in July and helped the A's reach the playoffs for the third straight year..."
Ha! Evidently the Associated Press* believes you've already forgotten the 2014 season. You know, the season in which Oakland dominated all of Major League Baseball until pretty much the moment they traded for Lester.
*Yes, he's picking on the AP again. Sometimes it's a slow baseball news day and all looks bleak and then the AP writes something and makes life fun again. Thank you, AP. Don't ever change.
For the record, the A's won 65 of their first 104 games, a .625 winning percentage. Three games later they acquired Lester and proceeded to lose 35 of their next 60 games, a .417 winning percentage. They relinquished the best record in baseball, the best record in the AL, the division lead, the first wild card, their air of invincibility, most of their dignity and nearly the post-season altogether, all with Lester in tow. Having stumbled into the Wild Card game, they gakked up a big eighth-inning lead, with Lester on the hill, against middling Kansas City.
In sum, their season descending into ignominy almost immediately upon Lester's arrival. That's how he "helped" them earn a playoff berth.
Now, to be fair, correlation isn't causation, definitively not here. Lester pitched well for Oakland, allowing 2.82 runs per nine and fanning 71 while walking just 16. It wasn't his fault the A's collapsed like Ukrainian peace talks.
But he doesn't deserve credit for their post-season moment either. They earned that while he was hurling for Boston.
"Lester was dealt by the Red Sox to Oakland at the trade deadline in July and helped the A's reach the playoffs for the third straight year..."
Ha! Evidently the Associated Press* believes you've already forgotten the 2014 season. You know, the season in which Oakland dominated all of Major League Baseball until pretty much the moment they traded for Lester.
*Yes, he's picking on the AP again. Sometimes it's a slow baseball news day and all looks bleak and then the AP writes something and makes life fun again. Thank you, AP. Don't ever change.
For the record, the A's won 65 of their first 104 games, a .625 winning percentage. Three games later they acquired Lester and proceeded to lose 35 of their next 60 games, a .417 winning percentage. They relinquished the best record in baseball, the best record in the AL, the division lead, the first wild card, their air of invincibility, most of their dignity and nearly the post-season altogether, all with Lester in tow. Having stumbled into the Wild Card game, they gakked up a big eighth-inning lead, with Lester on the hill, against middling Kansas City.
In sum, their season descending into ignominy almost immediately upon Lester's arrival. That's how he "helped" them earn a playoff berth.
Now, to be fair, correlation isn't causation, definitively not here. Lester pitched well for Oakland, allowing 2.82 runs per nine and fanning 71 while walking just 16. It wasn't his fault the A's collapsed like Ukrainian peace talks.
But he doesn't deserve credit for their post-season moment either. They earned that while he was hurling for Boston.
31 August 2014
Did Trading Cespedes Ruin The A's?
A month ago, the Oakland A's celebrated the best record in baseball and a comfortable AL West lead with a trade that injected Jon Lester into a rotation already bolstered by Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel in previous deals.
Billy Beane was rightly lauded, including here, for packing the rotation for a deep playoff run. And if the price of those deals was a bevy of prospects and Yoenis Cespedes, that seemed like a a good deal.
With the benefit of hindsight, we're now hearing the bleating, as if an outfielder with a .303 on base percentage is indispensable. The A's are 12-16 since jettisoning Cespedes, falling four games out of first. Offense has been the culprit: Oakland has hit .224 and scored just 3.6 runs/game in August. And that has led many to bemoan the trades.
Let's all say it together: correlation is not causation.
The A's aren't scuffling because Yoenis Cespedes moved his 1,300-pound leg press and his out-sized reputation to Beantown. By slipping Stephen Vogt into the lineup at first and sliding Brandon Moss to the outfield, manager Bob Melvin positioned his team to maintain its punch at the plate. At the time of the trade, Vogt was out-hitting Cespedes by batting average, on base and slugging.
But since the moves, the entire A's roster has hit a wall -- and not much else. Moss is batting .178 with no home runs and 35 strikeouts in August. Derek Norris is batting .188; Coco Crisp, .191; Vogt, .222 and John Jaso, .149. Unless Cespedes is sticking pins in a John Jaso voodoo doll, he's unlikely the cause.
The odds say the A's will right the ship before the playoffs start, because they have too much talent to play this badly for long. Then, to kick off the postseason, they'll put the ball in Jon Lester's left hand. At which point, A's fans will forget about Yoenis Cespedes.
Billy Beane was rightly lauded, including here, for packing the rotation for a deep playoff run. And if the price of those deals was a bevy of prospects and Yoenis Cespedes, that seemed like a a good deal.
With the benefit of hindsight, we're now hearing the bleating, as if an outfielder with a .303 on base percentage is indispensable. The A's are 12-16 since jettisoning Cespedes, falling four games out of first. Offense has been the culprit: Oakland has hit .224 and scored just 3.6 runs/game in August. And that has led many to bemoan the trades.
Let's all say it together: correlation is not causation.
The A's aren't scuffling because Yoenis Cespedes moved his 1,300-pound leg press and his out-sized reputation to Beantown. By slipping Stephen Vogt into the lineup at first and sliding Brandon Moss to the outfield, manager Bob Melvin positioned his team to maintain its punch at the plate. At the time of the trade, Vogt was out-hitting Cespedes by batting average, on base and slugging.
But since the moves, the entire A's roster has hit a wall -- and not much else. Moss is batting .178 with no home runs and 35 strikeouts in August. Derek Norris is batting .188; Coco Crisp, .191; Vogt, .222 and John Jaso, .149. Unless Cespedes is sticking pins in a John Jaso voodoo doll, he's unlikely the cause.
The odds say the A's will right the ship before the playoffs start, because they have too much talent to play this badly for long. Then, to kick off the postseason, they'll put the ball in Jon Lester's left hand. At which point, A's fans will forget about Yoenis Cespedes.
01 August 2014
Beane Ball: Do the Opposite of What Billy Beane Would Do
There's a new general manager in Oakland. He is Not-Billy Beane.
The actual Beane, he of Moneyball fame, the first of the sabermetric-inclined GMs; the savant whose early trades humiliated his trade partners; the first to recognize the power of on-base percentage, the fungibility of closers and the real value of managers; the ex-prospect who assembled one playoff team after another without a payroll, a stadium or a fan base; that Billy Beane would never swap a young stud like Yoenis Cespedes for a two-month pitching rental, even of the Jon Lester variety.
That Billy Beane takes the long view, cobbles offensive machines out of platoons and role players, inks low-cost, high-value free agents and recycles young arms. He wins division after division after division -- seven playoff teams in the last 14 years.
And then -- disappointment. His teams have succumbed in the division series six times, each of them in the final game. In several of those series the A's led two games to none and then got swept. And in the one league championship series of Beane's reign, the A's were tomahawked out without a win.
Beane famously said "my shit doesn't work in the playoffs," and yesterday Not-Billy Beane went about proving that he believed it. Blessed with his best team in years, a squad leading baseball in runs scored, fewest runs allowed and the best record in the game, Not-Billy Beane did what Billy Beane would never do.
First, a month ago, he swapped a pair of promising minor leaguers for two good but not great Cubs' pitchers. Then yesterday he relinquished his five-tool outfielder for a two-month Jon Lester rental.
Except it's not the two months that Not-Billy Beane needs Lester for. The A's know perfectly well how to win in August and September without high-cost rentals like Jon Lester whom Oakland will never be able to re-sign.
Not-Billy signed Lester for the 19 games of October that really count. Not-Billy realizes that all there is no finger hardware for division titles. There are no t-shirt sales proclaiming the team Division Champions. No documentaries, no parades and no delirium in the streets. They require a World Championship.
So Not-Billy brought in Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija to supplement Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir for those five- and seven-game series that have formed the bulwark against Beane's World Series quest. Come Games Three and Four of the ALDS, Beane won't be outmatched on the mound against anyone. The same thing in Games Four through Seven of the ALCS and World Series.
Over the years, we've seen Billy Beane change his strategy numerous time from focusing on OBP to defense to BABIP en route to accomplishments well beyond his revenue stream. Today we're seeing Beane change his fundamental principles. We'll find out soon whether Not-Billy Beane fares any better.
The actual Beane, he of Moneyball fame, the first of the sabermetric-inclined GMs; the savant whose early trades humiliated his trade partners; the first to recognize the power of on-base percentage, the fungibility of closers and the real value of managers; the ex-prospect who assembled one playoff team after another without a payroll, a stadium or a fan base; that Billy Beane would never swap a young stud like Yoenis Cespedes for a two-month pitching rental, even of the Jon Lester variety.
That Billy Beane takes the long view, cobbles offensive machines out of platoons and role players, inks low-cost, high-value free agents and recycles young arms. He wins division after division after division -- seven playoff teams in the last 14 years.
And then -- disappointment. His teams have succumbed in the division series six times, each of them in the final game. In several of those series the A's led two games to none and then got swept. And in the one league championship series of Beane's reign, the A's were tomahawked out without a win.
Beane famously said "my shit doesn't work in the playoffs," and yesterday Not-Billy Beane went about proving that he believed it. Blessed with his best team in years, a squad leading baseball in runs scored, fewest runs allowed and the best record in the game, Not-Billy Beane did what Billy Beane would never do.
First, a month ago, he swapped a pair of promising minor leaguers for two good but not great Cubs' pitchers. Then yesterday he relinquished his five-tool outfielder for a two-month Jon Lester rental.
Except it's not the two months that Not-Billy Beane needs Lester for. The A's know perfectly well how to win in August and September without high-cost rentals like Jon Lester whom Oakland will never be able to re-sign.
Not-Billy signed Lester for the 19 games of October that really count. Not-Billy realizes that all there is no finger hardware for division titles. There are no t-shirt sales proclaiming the team Division Champions. No documentaries, no parades and no delirium in the streets. They require a World Championship.
So Not-Billy brought in Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija to supplement Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir for those five- and seven-game series that have formed the bulwark against Beane's World Series quest. Come Games Three and Four of the ALDS, Beane won't be outmatched on the mound against anyone. The same thing in Games Four through Seven of the ALCS and World Series.
Over the years, we've seen Billy Beane change his strategy numerous time from focusing on OBP to defense to BABIP en route to accomplishments well beyond his revenue stream. Today we're seeing Beane change his fundamental principles. We'll find out soon whether Not-Billy Beane fares any better.
11 August 2008
A Phyrric Victory?
I've seen enough baseball to be very worried about Jon Lester in the wake of his no-hitter. I can hardly count the number of times I've seen a pitcher stay longer than he should in a game in order to achieve a milestone only to crack thereafter.
The poster child for that is Kerry Wood's 20-strikeout game in May of '98. Wood, a rookie, threw 122 pitches that game and 166 innings that year before his arm fell off, an injury from which he has really never fully recovered.
Lester, whose injury and illness history is inspiring and well-documented, threw 120 pitches in his no-hit start, a workload not usually allowed by the Red Sox brass. It's hard to imagine that he would have finished that game had he been pitching a three-hitter.
Owner John Henry, GM Theo Epstein and consultant Bill James have forgotten more baseball data than you and I and 27 of our friends have ever seen (and I've read James's books), so maybe they know something about Lester that we don't. I understand that they have arranged the rotation so that Lester gets an extra day's rest.
But history is littered with pitchers whose crowning achievement cost them a labrum, ulnar nerve or patellar tendon, and was the last good game they threw. I hope Jon Lester isn't on that list.
The poster child for that is Kerry Wood's 20-strikeout game in May of '98. Wood, a rookie, threw 122 pitches that game and 166 innings that year before his arm fell off, an injury from which he has really never fully recovered.
Lester, whose injury and illness history is inspiring and well-documented, threw 120 pitches in his no-hit start, a workload not usually allowed by the Red Sox brass. It's hard to imagine that he would have finished that game had he been pitching a three-hitter.
Owner John Henry, GM Theo Epstein and consultant Bill James have forgotten more baseball data than you and I and 27 of our friends have ever seen (and I've read James's books), so maybe they know something about Lester that we don't. I understand that they have arranged the rotation so that Lester gets an extra day's rest.
But history is littered with pitchers whose crowning achievement cost them a labrum, ulnar nerve or patellar tendon, and was the last good game they threw. I hope Jon Lester isn't on that list.
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