About a fifth of the way through the season we see some trends emerging at the macro level. The Cubs, Mets, Nationals, White Sox, Orioles, Red Sox and Mariners have broken strong from the starter's gun. The Braves, Astros, Padres, Twins, A's, Angels, Brewers and Reds have all scuffled badly.
Thirty games is longer than a phase but too short to be definitive. We know that over that period, the cream and the sludge tend to find their way near the top and bottom respectively, but not always. An injury or a raft of weak individual performances can cripple a good team over 30 games while a soft schedule or a few hot bats can catapult an otherwise suspect team.
There are some surprises on those two lists. Which of the hot listers don't we have confidence in?
Recent history has told us never to count out Buck Showalter's Orioles. They have defied expectations and the odds several times in the 2010s. In a year of long balls, they are among the long balliest.
As I've mentioned before, the White Sox had more potential than people were giving them credit for coming into the season. They're fifth in the league in runs scored and first in runs allowed; the latter feels reasonable given the lineup but it's unlikely that Chris Sale -- much less Jose Quintana and Mat Latos -- will go all season without losing, especially as Latos needs to become acquainted with the strikeout.
The Nats, Mets, Cubs and Red Sox have so far exhibited truth in advertising. That leaves the Mariners, at 21-13 the leader in the AL West despite an upside-down charge out of the gate. Seattle, long a contingent of whiffle ball bats, is scoring the fourth most runs in the junior circuit. Their pitching has been even better, led by a lights-out bullpen and not by King Felix's paltry 1.5 K/BB ratio.
Relief pitching is notoriously subject to the winds, and after Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, there aren't a whole lot of everyday players you'd bet your Starbucks money on (unless you count Adam Lind and his three walks in 93 PA.) The AL West is up for grabs, especially with Houston's putrid start, but the Mariners are the best bet to collapse back into the pack.
Showing posts with label Seattle Mariners. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Seattle Mariners. Show all posts
13 May 2016
07 December 2014
Nelson Now Seattle's Cruz To Bear
There are few endeavors more narcissistic than what you are about to read, and for that this blog offers you a most humble apology. That said, you are commended to peruse this post from February, in which we surveyed the value of slugger Nelson Cruz.
To save you the distaste of consuming a product based on the producer's own review, I will summarize: Nelson Cruz should have accepted the Rangers' $14.1 million qualifying offer last year because no GM was stupid enough to offer him more. I suggested that Cruz is a one-dimensional player headed away from his peak.
In fact, Cruz's best offer was a one-year, $8 million deal with Baltimore, which cashed in on a league-leading 40 home runs that helped them win the vaunted AL East. His 140 OPS and 4.7 WAR earned him an All-Star berth, MVP votes and a fat new four-year contract from Seattle.
So that's $57 million worth of consolation for Cruz and four years of a declining asset for the Mariners. Cruz had a wonderful run with the Orioles, achieving career highs in HR, RBI, runs, walks and WAR. He also largely became a DH. And he got a year older.
Which means Seattle has shelled out top dollar for a one-position player whose skills, as he enters his age 34 season, are likely to begin declining in a home stadium (Safeco Field) that will mask some of his primary skill -- hitting for power.
As you might imagine, this is a good signing.
Wait, what?
Let's take this one concern at a time:
1. Cruz is coming off his best season. You're paying for his peak performance.
The Mariners have the money, World Series aspirations and a roster they think is close to winning it all. The cost wasn't really an issue for them.
2. Cruz is a DH at this point.
Perfect! The Mariners might as well have batted their pitchers at DH in 2014. Seattle DHs Mendoza'd .189/.271/.302 at the plate. They hit fewer home runs as a group than Cruz hit at Camden Yards alone.
3. He won't hit 40 home runs playing half his games at Safeco.
But every home run he hits there is worth a little more. So it's a wash, except if you're worried about his counting stats. But the Mariners are worried about wins, and now they have a DH and a cleanup hitter to bat behind Robinson Cano, which they didn't have last year.
4. His skills will surely decline soon.
Yes they will. Nelson Cruz almost certainly won't be worth $28.5 million in the final two years of his contract. But he'll earn every penny of 57 large if he leads them into the playoffs and, optimally, into Seattle's first World Series appearance in the first two seasons.
So the Cruz signing is a gamble, as is any free agent signing, but a gamble based on need and a real desire to win. And if that's your team, you have to be happy because in 2014 Nelson Cruz was doing this against you and in 2015 he'll be doing it for you.
To save you the distaste of consuming a product based on the producer's own review, I will summarize: Nelson Cruz should have accepted the Rangers' $14.1 million qualifying offer last year because no GM was stupid enough to offer him more. I suggested that Cruz is a one-dimensional player headed away from his peak.
In fact, Cruz's best offer was a one-year, $8 million deal with Baltimore, which cashed in on a league-leading 40 home runs that helped them win the vaunted AL East. His 140 OPS and 4.7 WAR earned him an All-Star berth, MVP votes and a fat new four-year contract from Seattle.
So that's $57 million worth of consolation for Cruz and four years of a declining asset for the Mariners. Cruz had a wonderful run with the Orioles, achieving career highs in HR, RBI, runs, walks and WAR. He also largely became a DH. And he got a year older.
Which means Seattle has shelled out top dollar for a one-position player whose skills, as he enters his age 34 season, are likely to begin declining in a home stadium (Safeco Field) that will mask some of his primary skill -- hitting for power.
As you might imagine, this is a good signing.
Wait, what?
Let's take this one concern at a time:
1. Cruz is coming off his best season. You're paying for his peak performance.
The Mariners have the money, World Series aspirations and a roster they think is close to winning it all. The cost wasn't really an issue for them.
2. Cruz is a DH at this point.
Perfect! The Mariners might as well have batted their pitchers at DH in 2014. Seattle DHs Mendoza'd .189/.271/.302 at the plate. They hit fewer home runs as a group than Cruz hit at Camden Yards alone.
3. He won't hit 40 home runs playing half his games at Safeco.
But every home run he hits there is worth a little more. So it's a wash, except if you're worried about his counting stats. But the Mariners are worried about wins, and now they have a DH and a cleanup hitter to bat behind Robinson Cano, which they didn't have last year.
4. His skills will surely decline soon.
Yes they will. Nelson Cruz almost certainly won't be worth $28.5 million in the final two years of his contract. But he'll earn every penny of 57 large if he leads them into the playoffs and, optimally, into Seattle's first World Series appearance in the first two seasons.
So the Cruz signing is a gamble, as is any free agent signing, but a gamble based on need and a real desire to win. And if that's your team, you have to be happy because in 2014 Nelson Cruz was doing this against you and in 2015 he'll be doing it for you.
02 September 2013
Data Point: Why the Mariners Blow
You don't need a University of Chicago economics degree to understand that when a 41-year-old outfielder logs this line in a lost season's first half:
.267/.314/.578 , 24 HR (43% above average)
...you trade him away for young talent so fast tornadoes form.
Instead, the Seattle Mariners held on to Raul Ibanez through their Quixotic quest for that magic 75-win season and he has rewarded their fifth-place selves with this since:
.205/.299/.286, 1 HR (33% below average)
At which point his value is applesauce. This is what GM Jack Zduriencik calls "rebuilding."
.267/.314/.578 , 24 HR (43% above average)
...you trade him away for young talent so fast tornadoes form.
Instead, the Seattle Mariners held on to Raul Ibanez through their Quixotic quest for that magic 75-win season and he has rewarded their fifth-place selves with this since:
.205/.299/.286, 1 HR (33% below average)
At which point his value is applesauce. This is what GM Jack Zduriencik calls "rebuilding."
12 May 2010
Asleep In the Batter's Box
I don't know whether Ken Griffey snoozed in the clubhouse late in a game against the Angels, as reported by the Tacoma News Tribune. Frankly, I think Griffey ought to be snoozing on his couch at home rather than limping desolately through the post-useful portion of his career. And I can't blame anyone sleeping while the Mariners bat; it appears that's what their lineup does at the plate.
I don't know whether manager Don Wakamatsu is telling the truth when he denies that Junior was unavailable for pinch-hit duties because he was sawing wood. I'm not sure Junior's .489 OPS is much of a pinch-hitting upgrade on even the pitching coach.
Even if the story is completely true, as Griffey's shadow-boxing with the question suggests, it doesn't have anything to do with Seattle's 13-19 record. The fact that the sarcophagus of a former player fills a roster spot on a team desperate for a big league bat is a much bigger issue to me.
No, it was the actions of Cliff Lee in the wake of the story that I think merit a dressing down, and frankly, a suspension. Lee not only refused to answer questions asked by the story's reporter, Larry LaRue, he refused to answer any questions from any reporters unless LaRue left the room. This is a classic case of blaming the messenger. It also nearly convinces me that LaRue was right.
LaRue was doing his job, reporting what people in Seattle want to know about. He got the information from multiple teammates of Griffey, according to the story. Based on Griffey's dissembling when asked whether he was awake for the whole the game, LaRue hit upon some truth, if not all of it.
The Mariners have a right to be angry at the players who ratted out a city icon, but I doubt that's the issue here. The team has been an embarrassment, in part because Griffey has been an embarrassment and this episode just brought the cauldron to a boil.
That's not Larry LaRue's fault. If a few more members of the M's lineup had been doing their jobs as well as LaRue did his, they wouldn't be in this predicament.
b
29 June 2009
Marinating in Seattle
Q. When should you alter your three-year rebuilding plan?
A. Definitely not midway through year one.
With their beloved but woeful Mariners above .500 and in the thick of the AL West and wild card races, Seattle fans are asking whether they should be buyers or sellers before the trading deadline. If GM Jack Zduriencik is asking himself that question, he was the wrong replacement for the train wreck that preceded him.
I'm betting that Zduriencik recognizes instead that the Mariners are a long way from contention and should not be mortgaging their future for high-priced rentals. This is a team that has just three good hitters, one of whom is hurt and another of whom is enjoying his career year. (The third, Ichiro, is back to his old magic and stirring in a soupcon of power too.) The team has been swept along on a wave of solid pitching, but finishing '09 with 81 wins would be an achievement.
The best evidence that Zduriencik understands this was his signing of the ghost of Ken Griffey Jr. Playing an injury-addled former great in order to woo fans is a luxury that only a team with no hope can afford. Predictably, Junior is batting .218 and limping around left field. Imagine a team in a pennant race trotting out a baseball card every night and enduring his replacement-level play.
The Mariners have a wonderful opportunity to trade good veterans in their walk years and reap some future gold. Take Russ Branyan, please, and send back a couple of potential sticks. Until the past 300 at-bats, Branyan was a strikeout machine with no position. This year he's hitting .303 with an OPS of 1.009 in a tough-hitting park while playing first base full time. At 33, he won't be around when the Mariners start contending, so they ought to shop him before he hits the discount rack.
Ditto Jarrod Washburn, who can give someone 100 more innings of 4.00 ERA. But at 35, his future is now, and with his contract expiring, Seattle should get some hitting in return. They'd like to do the same for Eric Bedard. Hey, maybe they could convince Baltimore to relinquish Adam Jones, George Sherrill and three minor leaguers for...oh, nevermind. That would reverse the transparently moronic swap engineered by then-GM Bill Bavasi last year. Having milked Bedard for a season-and-a-half of All-Star caliber visits to the Disabled List, the Mariners can only hope now to reel in a fraction of that value for him now. And by "now," I mean "if and when he comes off the DL and pitches well enough to sucker some contender into thinking he can make seven starts in a row."
That win-now-without-talent approach got Bavasi fired and sunk the Mariners to 101 losses in '08. Zduriencik won't make the same mistake. This year, the Mariners are sellers. But if they follow the plan, the future will be brighter.
b
A. Definitely not midway through year one.
With their beloved but woeful Mariners above .500 and in the thick of the AL West and wild card races, Seattle fans are asking whether they should be buyers or sellers before the trading deadline. If GM Jack Zduriencik is asking himself that question, he was the wrong replacement for the train wreck that preceded him.
I'm betting that Zduriencik recognizes instead that the Mariners are a long way from contention and should not be mortgaging their future for high-priced rentals. This is a team that has just three good hitters, one of whom is hurt and another of whom is enjoying his career year. (The third, Ichiro, is back to his old magic and stirring in a soupcon of power too.) The team has been swept along on a wave of solid pitching, but finishing '09 with 81 wins would be an achievement.
The best evidence that Zduriencik understands this was his signing of the ghost of Ken Griffey Jr. Playing an injury-addled former great in order to woo fans is a luxury that only a team with no hope can afford. Predictably, Junior is batting .218 and limping around left field. Imagine a team in a pennant race trotting out a baseball card every night and enduring his replacement-level play.
The Mariners have a wonderful opportunity to trade good veterans in their walk years and reap some future gold. Take Russ Branyan, please, and send back a couple of potential sticks. Until the past 300 at-bats, Branyan was a strikeout machine with no position. This year he's hitting .303 with an OPS of 1.009 in a tough-hitting park while playing first base full time. At 33, he won't be around when the Mariners start contending, so they ought to shop him before he hits the discount rack.
Ditto Jarrod Washburn, who can give someone 100 more innings of 4.00 ERA. But at 35, his future is now, and with his contract expiring, Seattle should get some hitting in return. They'd like to do the same for Eric Bedard. Hey, maybe they could convince Baltimore to relinquish Adam Jones, George Sherrill and three minor leaguers for...oh, nevermind. That would reverse the transparently moronic swap engineered by then-GM Bill Bavasi last year. Having milked Bedard for a season-and-a-half of All-Star caliber visits to the Disabled List, the Mariners can only hope now to reel in a fraction of that value for him now. And by "now," I mean "if and when he comes off the DL and pitches well enough to sucker some contender into thinking he can make seven starts in a row."
That win-now-without-talent approach got Bavasi fired and sunk the Mariners to 101 losses in '08. Zduriencik won't make the same mistake. This year, the Mariners are sellers. But if they follow the plan, the future will be brighter.
b
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