Showing posts with label Diamondbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Diamondbacks. Show all posts

13 August 2011

Who Are These D-backs and What Are They Doing To Our World Champs?


Stop the season right now and roll this around on your tongue: the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks.

Say what?

The Diamondwho? Can you name a single player on this squad? If Fox were to feature their game on a telecast (ha!), how would they promote the desert denizens? "Matt Kemp and the Dodgers face, uh, Chris Young and the Dbacks? in a desultory NL West showdown..."

The Snakes are the quintessential mystery/riddle/enigma outfitted in a uni. They've charged to 66 wins and a two game lead over the Giants by barely outscoring their opponents. They have the league's third best scoring offense without a star player -- or even many above-average hitters. Despite four decent starters and two reliable closers, their pitching has surrendered the fourth most runs in the league.

Not withstanding their best player -- outfielder Justin Upton -- there isn't a single player on the team with a .360 OBP or a .450 SLG. For context, a mediocre outfielder hits .340/.440. Upton is also the only player with more than 18 homers or more than 60 RBI. Their second best offensive threat has been third baseman Ryan Roberts -- (me either) -- who, at 30, has amassed 862 at bats while kicking around three organizations over six years. Roberts has stitched together a little of everything -- 51 walks, 15 taters, 14 steals -- for an offensive performance that's 17% above average.

And then, that's pretty much it. Others have contributed singular skills, like outfielder Gerardo Parra's seven of eight steals, Kelly Johnson's 18 bombs from the keystone and Brandon Allen's trio of homers in 29 at bats, but each is accompanied by debilitating deficiencies, like Johnson's .291 OBP.

Even the Amazing Kreskin must wonder how, playing in the balljack-friendly Bank One Ballpark, this motley crew can outscore all but two teams and rank sixth in the league in offensive VORP. 

At the same time, former Yankee first-rounder Ian Kennedy fronts a starting rotation that seems to be performing admirably, particularly in that park. Kennedy (15-3, 3.16); Daniel Hudson (11-8, 3.83); rookie Josh Collmenter (7-7, 3.48) and lefty Joe Saunders (8-9, 3.76) all sport ERAs that beat league average even without factoring in the neighborhood. 

Closer J.J. Putz is keeping runners off base (WHIP = 1.04) and in the park (.8 HR per 9 innings) while whiffing his share of batters (8.1 per nine). His go-to guy, rotund David Hernandez, boasts a 2.89 ERA, 5.6 hits per nine and a shiny 10.4 Ks per nine. (An abundance of walks is all that separates him from greatness.) An assortment of good, bad and indifferent populate the rest of the pen. All told, the pitching checks out sixth best in the NL in VORP, which takes the BoB into account.

So the sixth best offense and the sixth best defense produces the fourth best record in the National League. But the talent level doesn't support the results. I wouldn't bet against San Francisco's all-world rotation passing the D-backs in the last 40 games. Until then, the no-name Slitherers are making life difficult by the Bay and polishing manager Kirk Gibson's bonafides. If they win the division, we may have trouble believing what we just saw.
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16 January 2010

Jolly Well Done!


If you want evidence that the best Hot Stove deals come after all the big wood is burned, this past week provides it.

First, the Astros leave their history of knucklehead contracts behind them and ink Brett Myers to a one-year, $5 million deal. Then, the Dodgers reap the benefit of swimming in the shallow end of the salary pool by nailing down outfielder Matt Kemp for two years at $10.95 million, and starting pitcher Chad Billingsley for one year at $3.85 million.

Then today, speaking of putting knucklehead contracts in the past, the Diamondbacks admit their mistake a cut loose Eric Byrnes, despite owing him $11 million.

Each of these moves will make their teams better. L.A.'s Trolley Hoppers sidestep arbitration and all that entails with their star duo, resulting in raises of $3.4 million for Billingsley and $5 million for Kemp. Billingsley struggled in the second half last year, so the one-year deal gives the Dodgers another season to evaluate him before committing longer-term. In his first four MLB campaigns, he's demonstrated durability, posted a 3.55 ERA, and struck out twice as many as he's walked. The arrow points up.

Kemp has also drawn major league paychecks since 2006, earning notice for his bat, glove and legs. A Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and 85 steals in 109 attempts is a great way to start a career. The contract covers the rest of his arbitration years -- I think -- so I would have liked to see a longer deal from management's perspective, but they did get some savings in exchange for two years of salary certainty for Kemp.

The Myers deal may or may not net Houston an ace to complement Roy Oswalt, but $5 million is half the going rate for an average #3/4 innings-eater. Meyers has a checkered history, but the white squares look awfully good, and if he's healthy following his injury-flecked 2009 (and I assume the Astros know a decent physician who could do Myers' physical) his contract offers nearly all upside.

The best move of the bunch is Byrnes' goodbye party. Too bad for the fans in Phoenix that it required one of the dumbest signings ever to make it so. Eric Byrnes was a speedy but brittle outfielder with a good glove and an average bat by the time he turned 30. Byrnes is also a quintessential Californian character -- nickname Crash Test Dummy -- whose highlight reel catches and headfirst slides endeared him to fans and obscured the truth about his abilities. After he posted his best season ever at age 31 (.286/.353/.460 with 50 steals, which is pretty average outfield stuff, not withstanding the baserunning), Arizona brass rewarded him with three years and 30 million thank yous for smiling and getting dirty a lot.

Alas, they neglected to notice that 2007 was the first time Byrnes had stayed healthy for even 144 games, the first time he'd posted a .350 OBP and the first time he'd stolen even 30 bases. They paid him for his previous season just as his future began to fade, and in his age 32 and 33 years combined he stayed upright for just 136 games, posting OPS of .641 and .663 and contributing right about the level of a random AAA call-up.

So why cut Byrnes loose when you have to pay him eleven large? Because as long as he's not contributing, you might as well call up the AAA guy and give him a chance. Why waste at-bats on a 34-year-old has-been back-up, when you can let a new guy bob for apples at the company Halloween Party on the off chance that he might get one.

This move directly benefits persons answering to the names Ryan Roberts, Cole Gillespie and Rusty Ryal, a trio of fourth outfielder wannbees who spent '09 plying their trade in places like Mobile, AL and Reno, NV, but mostly it shows that Diamonback GM Josh Byrnes (no relation) understands the concept of a sunk cost. There are plenty of clubs that would have weighed down their rosters with Byrnes just because they're paying him the big bucks, but the money is spent either way, so the D-backs might as well make the optimum move for their pennant chances.

There's still another Adam Dunn '09 deal (two years, $20 million for a guy worth $30-$36 million) to be made out there, but it will take patience, intelligence and some luck. I'll be watching.
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