Jolly Well Done!

If you want evidence that the best Hot Stove deals come after all the big wood is burned, this past week provides it.

First, the Astros leave their history of knucklehead contracts behind them and ink Brett Myers to a one-year, $5 million deal. Then, the Dodgers reap the benefit of swimming in the shallow end of the salary pool by nailing down outfielder Matt Kemp for two years at $10.95 million, and starting pitcher Chad Billingsley for one year at $3.85 million.

Then today, speaking of putting knucklehead contracts in the past, the Diamondbacks admit their mistake a cut loose Eric Byrnes, despite owing him $11 million.

Each of these moves will make their teams better. L.A.'s Trolley Hoppers sidestep arbitration and all that entails with their star duo, resulting in raises of $3.4 million for Billingsley and $5 million for Kemp. Billingsley struggled in the second half last year, so the one-year deal gives the Dodgers another season to evaluate him before committing longer-term. In his first four MLB campaigns, he's demonstrated durability, posted a 3.55 ERA, and struck out twice as many as he's walked. The arrow points up.

Kemp has also drawn major league paychecks since 2006, earning notice for his bat, glove and legs. A Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and 85 steals in 109 attempts is a great way to start a career. The contract covers the rest of his arbitration years -- I think -- so I would have liked to see a longer deal from management's perspective, but they did get some savings in exchange for two years of salary certainty for Kemp.

The Myers deal may or may not net Houston an ace to complement Roy Oswalt, but $5 million is half the going rate for an average #3/4 innings-eater. Meyers has a checkered history, but the white squares look awfully good, and if he's healthy following his injury-flecked 2009 (and I assume the Astros know a decent physician who could do Myers' physical) his contract offers nearly all upside.

The best move of the bunch is Byrnes' goodbye party. Too bad for the fans in Phoenix that it required one of the dumbest signings ever to make it so. Eric Byrnes was a speedy but brittle outfielder with a good glove and an average bat by the time he turned 30. Byrnes is also a quintessential Californian character -- nickname Crash Test Dummy -- whose highlight reel catches and headfirst slides endeared him to fans and obscured the truth about his abilities. After he posted his best season ever at age 31 (.286/.353/.460 with 50 steals, which is pretty average outfield stuff, not withstanding the baserunning), Arizona brass rewarded him with three years and 30 million thank yous for smiling and getting dirty a lot.

Alas, they neglected to notice that 2007 was the first time Byrnes had stayed healthy for even 144 games, the first time he'd posted a .350 OBP and the first time he'd stolen even 30 bases. They paid him for his previous season just as his future began to fade, and in his age 32 and 33 years combined he stayed upright for just 136 games, posting OPS of .641 and .663 and contributing right about the level of a random AAA call-up.

So why cut Byrnes loose when you have to pay him eleven large? Because as long as he's not contributing, you might as well call up the AAA guy and give him a chance. Why waste at-bats on a 34-year-old has-been back-up, when you can let a new guy bob for apples at the company Halloween Party on the off chance that he might get one.

This move directly benefits persons answering to the names Ryan Roberts, Cole Gillespie and Rusty Ryal, a trio of fourth outfielder wannbees who spent '09 plying their trade in places like Mobile, AL and Reno, NV, but mostly it shows that Diamonback GM Josh Byrnes (no relation) understands the concept of a sunk cost. There are plenty of clubs that would have weighed down their rosters with Byrnes just because they're paying him the big bucks, but the money is spent either way, so the D-backs might as well make the optimum move for their pennant chances.

There's still another Adam Dunn '09 deal (two years, $20 million for a guy worth $30-$36 million) to be made out there, but it will take patience, intelligence and some luck. I'll be watching.
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I Don't Believe What I Just Saw!

I've covered the MVP races and the AL Cy Young, but the NL Cy Young is a whole other kettle of fish. That's because Tim Lincecum and Chris Carpenter are in a virtual dead heat, with Dan Haren, pitching in the thin desert air, hot on their heels. I'll take that one up after the season.

Most of the comments on these posts come off-blog, but this one is worth addressing. Mark from New York asks, "if on-base percentage is so superior to batting average, why do you often reference a player's batting average?"

The traditional measures -- triple crown stats for hitters, W-L and ERA for starting pitchers and saves for relievers -- run the gamut from virtually meaningless (RBI, pitcher wins) to pretty illuminating (ERA). Home runs and batting average are somewhere in between and suffer from the same weakness: they propose to measure things that are more fully measured in another way.

Home runs tell us something about a hitter's power, but they don't account for doubles and triples, which slugging average does. Batting average gives us a glimpse of a player's out-avoiding ability, but not as complete a view as on-base percentage, which includes walks and HBP.

So here's how batting average is important: there is no way to hit .375 and not be a good on-base guy. Even a free swinger who accepts only the occasional free pass grudgingly is going to sport a nifty OBP if he's batting .375, and it's virtually impossible to hit .375 without being a selective hitter.

Conversely, no .213 hitter would make a productive lead-off batter, even if he collects walks like they're pennies. OBP is largely dependent on batting average, so I often use the BA shorthand to denote a player's ability to reach base safely.

RBIs are different. A bad hitter can collect 80 RBI if he plays a lot and bats in the middle of a prodigious order. It happens all the time. David Ortiz (.233/.325/.447) has 84 RBI already. Brandon Inge, who I don't believe has hit safely the entire second half of the season, is now at .235/.322/.424, but with 76 RBI. It's been a miserable year for Jimmy Rollins (.247/.291/.414), but he's knocked in 71. There are better examples from previous years, but you get the point. RBIs are a stew of hitting and opportunity, and if you gets lots of opportunities, you don't need much hitting.

A great example on the other side of the coin is Kirk Gibson's magical 1988 for the Dodgers. The league MVP that year (one of the most astute selections ever by the writers, in my opinion), Gibson hit .290/.377/.483, stole 31 of 35 bases and played a spectacular left field in a ball park that didn't give up hits without a fight. He paced his team in homers, doubles, walks, HBP, runs and of course OBP and SA. He also led the league in intentional walks, which tells you something about how other teams feared him.

And he knocked in 76 runs. Was Gibson not clutch? Did you not watch the ninth inning of Game 1 of the World Series that year, or did you just not believe what you just saw? Gibson was the acknowledged leader of the team, the hardscrabble Mr. Hustle who was unfazed by the situation or the size of the human being, or the wall, that was bearing down on him.

No, Gibson knocked in 76 runs because no one was ever on base when he came to bat. The team won with pitching, defense, and Gibson, posting a putrid team batting line of .248/.305/.352 . Most of Gibby's 25 long balls were solo shots because leadoff speedster Steve Sax and centerfielder John Shelby were busy making outs 68% of the time. We know Gibson had a great year, no thanks to RBIs.
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