...And Another Career Ended a Day Later

Add to the roster identified yesterday Josh Hamilton, the Greek tragedy of Baseball, whose Great Fall preceded a Phoenix-rise and then a fall back into ashes. At 36, Hamilton was released from his Minor League contract with the Texas Rangers after sustaining yet another knee injury.

Just to recap, Hamilton was the first pick in the 1999 draft by Tampa, a chiseled, 6'4" blue chip whose rapid ascent to the Majors was derailed by drug addiction. He fought his way back and debuted with the Reds in 2007. Following a trade to Texas for pitcher Edinson Volquez, Hamilton busted out in 2008, hitting .304 with 32 homers and a league-leading 130 RBI while staffing center field. 

Two years later, his .359/.411./.633 led the American League and won him the MVP, but the seeds of his demise were planted the year before when he missed half the season with a variety of injuries. He played 140 games just twice after that.

Cashing In
Despite all the missed time, Hamilton finished the Texas portion of his career averaging .305 with 28 homers and 101 RBI. Though he performed poorly in the playoffs and was booed by the fans, Anaheim signed him to a five-year, $125 million contract that they would regret.

Injuries and drug relapse characterized the next three years, during which Hamilton averaged .255 with 13 homers and 49 RBIs and was, because of the drug issues, far more trouble than he was worth, the massive contract aside. Anaheim essentially gave Hamilton back to Texas, where he contributed little before getting hurt again. 

Shorn of his playing value, Hamilton lost all of 2016 to knee surgery. In January, the Rangers signed him to a Minor League contract and in February he underwent left knee surgery, delaying his debut on the farm. Yesterday, the team revealed they had cut him loose after he inured his right knee while rehabbing the left one.

Turn the Lights Out: It's Over
It's hard to imagine that Josh Hamilton's career has any more legs. He has missed 367 games (and counting) over the last three-plus seasons, produced about two wins over replacement during that time, requires constant chaperoning to keep him on the wagon and will be bearing down on 40 if and when he is ready to return to baseball. There aren't many teams clamoring for an old, oft-injured slugger who can no longer play the outfield and is dragging around heavy personal baggage.

That is a fourth prominent sports career that may have effectively ended with an announcement the last two days.

Oh My Josh! The Angels Debacle

If reports about the reassignment of Josh Hamilton from the Angels to the Rangers are true, this is a capitulation of the highest -- and dumbest -- order. It is hard to imagine Anaheim brass handling this entire episode -- from signing to unsigning -- more incompetently.

The inking of Hamilton to a gargantuan contract following the 2012 season raised eyebrows in the first place. The Angels ponied up superstar money for a corner outfielder with enviable average and power but a history of injuries and drug use. They neglected to account for his age, physical and mental issues or home ballpark. Hamilton was 31 when he signed the $124 million deal and he was leaving The Hitters' Delight in Arlington.

When Hamilton stumbled in the first year of his contract, missed half of his sophomore season in Southern Cal and then admitted a drug relapse this off-season, management responded as if these developments were unimaginable. As if no one could have foreseen, or at least factored in the possibility of, a decline in performance, injury and continued fallout from addiction.

Word now is that the Angels are willing to eat $68 million of the remaining $80 million to unload Hamilton. They are sending him to their intra-division rivals who will pay their former and future left fielder just $7 million over three years after he forgoes the $6 million he'll save in income taxes by moving back to Texas. Anaheim gets bupkus in return, besides the serenity of knowing they don't have to babysit their #5 hitter anymore.

So to recap: The Angels paid Josh Hamilton $112 million for three wins against replacement, not counting the egg he laid in the playoffs or that's on the face of Anaheim brass. And the pain could be magnified if he bounces back even a little and contributes to Rangers wins against their club. For the next three years, they will be paying Josh Hamilton handsomely, perhaps to beat them.

The Angels may believe this is addition by subtraction but it comes at an incredible price. And the pain could multiply if he flourishes back in Texas. What a debacle.

It's About Alexander Hamilton, Not Josh Hamilton

Since the Anaheim Angels signed Josh Hamilton to an ill-advised five-year, $125 million contract before the 2013 season there have been several important developments:

1. He has hit for a lower TAv than Juan Francisco.
2. He flamed out in the '13 playoffs.
2. He's spent more than 80 games on the shelf due to injuries.
3. He has abused drugs again.
4. He has turned 33.
4. His payments -- $480,762.23 a week -- have continued unabated.

None of this is a shock. Hamilton has had a litany of prior issues with drugs and injuries, enough to warrant pause before committing to him. Moving away from the high-offense environment in Texas and aging into his 30s nearly guaranteed a decline in production. Despite that, the Angels dangled guaranteed money to Hamilton as if he was an MVP without warts, with a predictably bad outcome.

Most of us reacted with sympathy when Hamilton turned himself in to MLB authorities this off-season to report his cocaine relapse. He is battling demons that control his brain and we all wish him godspeed in that lifelong fight. Even if he never plays another game of pro ball, addiction will be the dominant issue of his time on Earth.

Viewed through the prism of his albatross contract, it's easy to understand why Angels brass are symapthy-challenged. The guy they thought would team with Albert Pujols, another disappointing mega-signee, to lead Anaheim to a World Championship has led instead to headaches for team management.

That would explain the graceless response from GM Jerry Dipoto when an arbitrator ruled that Hamilton technically did not violate the collective bargaining agreement and therefore can't be fined our suspended by Commissioner Rob Manfred.

You might wonder why Dipoto and the team want Hamilton benched when play begins. He hasn't delivered to his contract, but he's still an above-average hitter, right? 

Well, no, not when he's on the trainer's table. 

Hamilton is rehabbing from February shoulder surgery and won't be available for another six or eight weeks at the earliest. In other words, the ruling is all about money. It's about Alexander Hamiltons, not Josh Hamilton.

The Angels were hoping that Hamilton (Josh, not Alex) would be suspended 30-50 games, roughly coinciding with the length of his recovery. That would save the team between $3 and $4 million, a thin salve to the wound that Hamilton's contract represents. Instead, he'll continue to accrue retirement service time without contributing a thing.

Another Spin In the Projection Machine

It might be interesting to consider what's in store for players who have changed teams while the hot stove burns. Here are Bill James's projections for the performances of a handful of key players. 

Remember that these projections were assembled prior to the signings and trades that have dotted the off-season, and that projections are not predictions. And that Bill James is not God. In fact, he finished fourth in the holy trinity.

Josh Hamilton
2012 .285/.354/.577 43 HR 148 games
2013 .289/.356/.540 35 HR 147 games

This is an exceedingly generous projection considering:
1. Hamilton has moved from Arlington to Anaheim, which should punish his stats a bit.
2. The number of games Hamilton has stayed healthy for in a season looks like this: 90, 156, 89, 133, 121, 148. The logical next number is not 147.

R.A. Dickey
2012   20-8, 2.73 in 234 innings, 54 BB, 230 K
2013   16-8, 3.58 in 226 innings, 56 BB, 152 K

Projections on pitchers are difficult enough, but with a unique subject like Dickey who really has no comparables, examining other players is not necessarily helpful. Given that, this projection seems eminently reasonable. This suggests he'll still pitch very well but won't dominate. Translated to Toronto, and the AL Beast, these numbers are likely to degrade further.

Kendrys Morales
2012  .273/.320/.467, 22 HR in 134 games
2013  .284/.332/.489, 23 HR in 137 games

Morales broke out in 2009, his first full season, hitting .306 and smacking 34 homers. Off to another estimable campaign in 2010, he broke his leg jumping on the plate during a walk-off celebration. James is suggesting that last year was Kendrys's new normal, which will be normalized lower playing in Seattle's dead-ball zone. Projections also suggest that he'll want to poke his eyeballs out with hot needles after watching the likes of Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez take their hacks. Speaking of which . . .

Jason Bay
2011  .245/.329/.374, 12 HR in 123 games
2012  .165/.237/.299, eight HR in 70 games
2013  .247/.343/.413, 17 HR in 133 games

So James suggests that Bay will deliver the greatest bounceback from irrelevance as a 35-year-old in MLB history. Of course, the projection system didn't know that Bay would become part of a platoon -- with 104-year-old Raul Ibanez, no less -- making 133 games played (and therefore 17 dingers) as likely as good parenting from the platoon of Kim Kardashian and Kanye West.

Melky Cabrera
2011 with Royals - .305/.339/.470 in 155 games
2012 with Giants -- .346/.390/.516 in 113 games before his blood turned him in
2013 with Blue Jays -- .295/.348/.432 in 148 games

In other words, the projection system says that not only was 2012 a steroid-induced fluke, 2011 wasn't to be believed either. The 2013 projection isn't much better than Melky's lifetime averages, which, absent the two years in question, were below average. Good luck with that, Blue Jays.

Shane Victorino
2011 with Phils -- .279/.355/.491, 19 steals, 17 HR
2012 with Phils & Dodgers -- .255/.321/.383, 39 steals, 11 HR
2013 with Red Sox -- .269/.338/.418, 29 steals, 14 HR

Can you say, "split the difference?"

Nick Swisher
Lifetime     .256/.361/.467, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 86 R, 84 BB, 134 K
2013           .256/.362/.458, 25 HR, 86 RBI, 82 R, 86 BB, 143 K

Sheesh, I could have projected that. I guess the Indians know who they signed.

Doubtless, one of these players is headed surprisingly south with his performance (unless it's Bay, who already inhabits baseball's Antarctica, and could therefore neither go south nor disappoint) in a manner beyond the capability of the projection system to foresee. Hey, if the game were predictable, it wouldn't be fun.

Oh Yeah, It's a Baseball Blog

For the 35th straight year, I exercised my franchise today. On the national level it was a pretty desultory affair, like scoring a run in a consolation game. No matter the outcome I wouldn't feel like a winner.

On the local level, though, I had the thrilling opportunity to cast my ballot either for people running unopposed or not at all. Choice is over-rated.

I did vote for the incumbent Receiver of Taxes, despite the lack of alternative. When it comes to receiving my taxes, she receives them like nobody's business. I mean, she's the Yadier Molina of receiving taxes. Every time I've sent her my taxes, by golly, she's received them. I'm not aware of our tax backstop being charged with a single Passed Tax all year. I don't know anything about her offensive skills, nor even how that metaphor would work, but based on her receiving skills, vis-a-vis taxes, she earned my vote.

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I heard a rumor that the NHL has fiddled away its November schedule while Nome burns. (Nome is cold. I presume they like hockey.) Two more months to go. A 40-game schedule beginning in January to eliminate the frauds, posers and ne'er-do-wells before the real season begins sounds about right.

I also heard that Laker fans were apoplectic because their team hiccuped in its first two games. Of an 82-game season. Whose only purpose is to weed out the incorrigibles. So they can roll out the interminable playoff schedule. Before winnowing down to the only four teams that ever had a chance to win a championship. If you're not a fan of L.A., Miami, Chicago or Oklahoma City, might I suggest a good book?
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Right on schedule, the BCS doomsdayers are bellyaching about the calamity of shoehorning four undefeateds into a two-team championship format. Right on schedule they are ignoring all of history, which suggests that at least two of those teams will accommodate the BCS by succumbing along the way. But who needs facts when there's 24 hours-a-day of sports talk to fill?

(Addendum to this: The Notre Dame football program should be very proud of its accomplishments so far this season, but if it's one of the nation's top 10 teams, Snooki is our next president. Worried about whether Irish will be "shut out" of the title game? Don't forget to fret about the mighty undefeated Mountain Hawks of Lehigh.

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Oh yeah, it's a baseball blog. 

General managers seeking an opportunity to dispose of the GDP of Guinea Bissau for a Solyndra-type return need look no farther than Josh Hamilton and Kyle Lohse.

Hamilton is reportedly seeking seven years at $175 million. That's Lexus money for Lexus talent. Ah so, but Hamilton is a 31-year-old Lexus that breaks down like a Vega. Anyone who inks him to more than one presidential term will experience expensive buyer's remorse.

Since entering the majors in 2001, Kyle Lohse has solidified his fourth starter status with lines like 9-13, 5.34, 6-12, 4.58 and 14-11, 4.61, worth 11 wins above replacement over 11 seasons. With a .500 record on good teams, an ERA five percent higher than average and a WHIP of nearly one-and-a-half, Lohse has established his bona fides and they're more fide than bona. (Bona = good. Or the lead singer of a rock band. Fide = your dog. Unless he's Spot.)

To any GM dazzled by his anomalous age-34 season (16-3, 2.86): Call me. I have oceanfront property in Arizona to sell you. Lohse is, as popular parlance now prefers, what he is, not what he ain't, which is what he was this year. Fatten his bank account at your own considerable risk.

Forget the Infield Fly

Next time a sports pundit thinks anyone cares about his "prediction" for the playoffs, let the record reflect that:

The Braves had won Kris Medlen's previous 23 starts and were one of the best defensive teams in the Majors. Then, with Medlen on the hill, the homefield edge and the emotion of Chipper's last playoffs, they gakked up three infield gaffes and lost 6-3.

Joe Saunders was 0-6 lifetime at The Ballpark in Arlington with a 9.38 ERA before hurling nearly six innings of one-run ball en route to 5-1 Baltimore win over Texas.

In other words, anyone who offers a prediction about any of the playoff series should stop talking. Before they start. 

On a related note, Atlanta should soon be a much kinder community, because everyone at the playoff game last night should be sentenced to community service for their distasteful littering outburst following the umpires' unfortunate infield fly call. 

Irrespective of your opinion on the call, it wasn't the reason the Braves lost. Three errors and 12 runners left on base -- most of them on second and third -- were the culprits. It's easy to minimize those mistakes, but consider this: the Cardinals got an extra inning's worth of outs from Braves infielders, even more if you account for the error that came on what appeared to be a double-play ball. The largesse also added three base runners and seven total bases. That's an awful lot to overcome, especially when your team strands three runners on second and four runners on third.

The machine retains most of its parts next season, with the obvious exception of Chipper Jones, leaving Atlanta fans with hope.

It's a different vibe in Dallas, where the local nine coughed up a five game lead with nine to play, fell into the Wild Card, and then suffered a power outage at the plate in their play-in loss. And just like that, the Rangers magically converted the AL's best record into the shortest stay in baseball playoff history. 

The Texas partisans gave their Atlanta brethren a run for their money by booing Josh Hamilton after he whiffed again to end an 0-for-4 evening. Because Hamilton only delivered 43 homers and 128 RBIs for the Metroplex this year, and hasn't brought more to the table over the last five years than .306/.362/.548, 142 home runs, four All Star appearances, a couple of Gold Gloves and the franchise's only two World Series appearances, the fair denizens made sure to communicate their annoyance with him.

The Rangers' front office knows better than to sign Hamilton to a mega-millions free agent contract and the fans know that the team knows that. As noted here before, Hamilton is physically and psychologically fragile, unlikely to play many full seasons and probably now entering his baseball dotage. Unless his commitment to charity includes the billionaire owners of baseball teams, he's going to have to search beyond the Rangers for a GM dumb enough to give him the money his numbers alone suggest he's worth.

That's the only major cog coming loose from this wheel, but it's a big one. Nolan Ryan will need to replace that production, and any attempt to do so will probably come from outside the organization. At least he'll have more time to consider the possibilities than he expected.

How Many Benjamins for Hamilton?

That thudding sound you heard when Josh Hamilton deposited his third and fourth line drives into the seats last night was the sound of GM Jon Daniels smacking his forehead.

Daniels has the unenviable task of dealing with Hamilton's 2013 free agency status just as his center fielder is mashing.

What Daniels no doubt knows is that while Hamilton is a great player and a heart-warming tale of redemption, he's also a 31-year-old with an emergency room loyalty card. Despite his .313/.370/.556 stick and defensive prowess in a key position, this is not a man to whom you give a golden parachute.

A batter who hits .250 is a .250 hitter. A pitcher who fans 250 a year is a strikeout pitcher. Likewise, a player who pays rent to the disabled list is injury prone. In his first five seasons, Josh Hamilton has made five DL trips and missed 205 games due to 20 different injuries as varied as broken ribs, a strained hammy, a sore back and patellar tendinitis. That's 40 games a season during which Josh Hamilton had absolutely no value to his team whatsoever.

The fans in Dallas don't care about that. All they see are his Triple-Crown numbers so far this season, his 75 home run pace, his 2010 MVP, his Adonis profile, his devout faith, and of course, the only two AL pennants in team history. They want him back. 

So does Jon Daniels, but he recognizes that Josh Hamilton is only three-quarters of a superstar if he only plays 120 games. While players with his mad skills coax $25 million/year, Hamilton is only worth three-quarters of that --$19 million. While other superstars ink deals that guarantee their income to age 40, the Rangers would be imprudent to commit to their injury-riddled slugger beyond four or five years.

It's going to be interesting to see where this goes. My guess is that Hamilton fractures a pinkie or ruptures a spleen or contracts blue skin disorder before the season ends because, well, that's what Josh Hamilton does. And that will splash a dose of reality on the negotiations.

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And Grady and Josh Too...

In my AL MVP critique, I left off two players who belong in the discussion, one on purpose and one accidentally. I've already mentioned in a previous post that while Josh Hamilton's story is remarkable, the MVP should go to the player who's created the most value, not the most good PR, for his team.

Hamilton's .910 OPS is spectacular for a center fielder, but he's really a miscast right fielder pressed into service up the middle. His 32 homers and .307 average are less impressive when you consider the launching pad in which he plays.

Many BBWAA will be bamboozled by Hamilton's nifty RBI collection, but RBIs require RBI opportunities, something Hamilton has in spades hitting in that lineup and in that ballpark.

Grady Sizemore actually has hit one more dinger than Hamilton in a tougher home field and he's a legitimate center fielder. He has added value as a leadoff hitter; unfortunately for the Indians, he was their only hitter for much of the year. His OPS of .882 is three percent lower than Hamilton's, but he's a force on the basebpaths -- 38 steals in 43 attempts.

The verdict on Sizemore, and particularly Hamilton is that they're reasonable Top Ten MVP selections, but the hardware's still saved for Mauer or Pedroia.

A Win-Win, Except for the Loss

We may one day look back at the off-season deal that sent rookie pitcher Edinson Volquez to Cincinnati and second-year outfielder Josh Hamilton to Texas as one of the all-time blockbusters.

It may turn out, as the baseball media reports, to be a great deal for both teams. But it isn't so right now. As of two months into the '08 season, Texas GM Jon Daniels has got to be sticking needles in his eyes over this one.

Sure, Hamilton is as close to the AL MVP leader as you can get in May with his .337 batting average and .606 slugging. The former first-rounder has put his drug problems behind him and clouted 31 home runs in his first 504 MLB at bats. According to Baseball Prospectus, he's on pace to be worth nearly 10 wins against a replacement level right fielder for the Rangers. And he can play a creditable center if you need him.

That Volquez is on pace to be worth almost 12 wins for the Reds is not nearly the problem with this deal. Nor is his relative youth; at 24 he's three years younger than Hamilton. His mid-90s fastball and heart-breaking 72 mph change, his 7-1 record, league-leading 1.34 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 60 innings are all Cy Young material, but not what should keep Texas brass up at night.

Let's recast this trade: two hungry bald men swapped a comb for a chicken dinner. They're worth about the same, but that doesn't make it a fair trade. The Rangers got the comb.

With eight of their nine regulars on base at a .340 or better clip, the Rangers have the best offense in the AL West by a Big D country mile. Their pitching? Let's just say that the ninth iteration of Sidney Ponson is their #3 starter. Pitchers with ERAs of 8.56, 9.12 and 10.51 have taken the ball in 20% of their games. The pitching corps -- or is it corpse -- has been below replacement value as a unit. You think they could use a guy with a 1.34 ERA?

Trading Volquez was the equivalent of the Yankees moving Joba Chamberlain for a third baseman or the Cleveland Browns dealing a pass rusher to get a quarterback.

The result has been an up-and-down Rangers team in a weak division and the promise of more all season.

Not that the Reds have brushed off the loss of Hamilton. Though they need Volquez badly -- the only other starter with an ERA under five-and-a-half is Aaron Harang -- their outfield has dragged down a productive offense. Ryan Freel has eight extra base hits -- none of them homers -- and Ken Griffey, Jr. is hanging on for his #600 curtain call. With Hamilton, Jr. could cool his heels most nights and fourth outfielder Corey Patterson could take his .630 OPS to Louisville. The Redlegs are also below .500 and depending on the night, bringing up the rear in the NL Central.

I teach my writing students never to call something "a win-win for both sides." It's redundant: win-win implies that both sides win. The problem here is that, so far, the Volquez-Hamilton trade is a win-lose.