Not Miguel Cabrera, Mind You

Veteran righty Jason Marquis just signed a $15 million, two-year deal with the Nationals to eat 200 innings with below-average results for an up-and-coming staff. Another veteran rightly, Javier Vazquez, just fetched Melky Cabrera for the Braves in a trade with the Yankees.

What do these two statements have in common? Evidentally, nothing.

In a time when arms are worth their weight in highly-enriched uranium, the Braves parlayed an above-average starter with a below-market contract -- he's due $9 million/year -- for... Melky Cabrera? Is there any commodity more abundant in baseball than fourth outfielders? Didn't they just cut Ryan Church and trade Jeff Francoeur? What, Ryan Spillborghs wasn't available? The Royals wouldn't part with Willie Bloomquist? Gabe Kapler's demanding his own conditioning coach?

This is a miserable waste of a valuable commodity by Atlanta. Frank Wren must have had a plane to catch when he made this deal, because a #3 starter should fetch real value, not the third trombone in the nobody parade.

There were some prospects in this deal, so maybe one of them is the second coming of Joe Dimaggio. Even then, the Braves' plan was supposed to be to flip one of their surplus quality starters for a big banging outfielder who could solidify a gelatin lineup and challenge the Phillies for the division title NOW. What they got was Melky Cabrera, all .274/.336/.416 of him. (That would be the numbers from his best year -- last -- which  marked year five of the "Melky the Future Star" show.) The Braves needed a hitter, not another edition of Garret Anderson.

Here's another data point in the argument against us Yankee haters. Credit Brian Cashman yet again for conning a perfectly respectable GM into giving him a good starter -- Vazquez has been worth 13 wins over the last three years relative to a replacement level pitcher -- in exchange for a replaceable part. This deal had little to do with New York's advantages, monetary or otherwise, and everything to do with Atlanta misjudging the value of a precious commodity.

Melky Cabrera!

An Homage to Ed Wade

And so draws the curtain on the December finals-time hiatus...

The Hot Stove percolates more actively this millennium and with more onlookers. Some observations:

The Braves offered their impressive relief tandem of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez arbitration, knowing they wouldn't accept, and then reeled in Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito with reasonable one-year deals. The applecart overturned when Soriano cheated Atlanta of the draft picks by accepting arbitration. Keeping all three, while not the worst idea if you're New England's team, or Orange County's, is cost prohibitive for the Braves. But I'm surprised by the bag of chips they got in return for Soriano, especially considering how badly Atlanta needs hitting.

Chief Nakahoma barely broke a sweat last year celebrating Brave home runs, and Chipper isn't getting and more chipper as the years pile on. (Join the club, Larry.) Atlanta's usually deft GM, Frank Wren, should be able to parlay his unique pitching surplus for a couple of guys who can swing the bat pretty much anywhere but shortstop or catcher. I don't know why he didn't dangle Soriano as bait for such. Word on the street is that he's willing to part with Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe. Perhaps one of those guys for a proven slugger like Josh Hamilton or a group of positional prospects.

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Time for the yang on all the Yankee-bemoaning yin:

For all their significant advantages, the Yankees certainly haven't skimped on the brass. Brian Cashman has once again cranked the machinery on a three-way deal that brings to the Bronx something for nothing. In relinquishing prospects Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Ian Kennnedy, and middle reliever Brian Bruney, to fill their single biggest major league need -- center field -- Cashman has improved his club without sacrifice. Curtis Granderson is young, affordable (as if that matters) and valuable on both sides of the ball. The prospect status of Jackson, Coke and Kennedy had begun running out and Bruney is an inter-changeable part. Kennedy alone among that group might have delivered value to the Yankees, but unlikely the value -- tomorrow -- that Granderson will deliver.

The move has a second benefit for NY: it moves Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner into part-time, defensive replacement, pinch runner roles for which they are better-suited. It also leaves the Yankee minor league cupboard almost completely bare, but when has that been a problem?

We can whine all we like about Steinbrenner domination of MLB world, but if all it took to get Granderson were these guys and some imagination, any team could have swung the deal. Credit Cashman for getting there first.

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The Brewers should consider trading Prince Fielder.

There, I said it. Milwaukee isn't positioned to contend in the next two years, not with that pitching staff, and they won't be able to afford the portly basher when he hits the free agent market. His body type and fielding challenges suggest a rapid drop-off in his 30s, so why not package him following a gargantuan year for a couple of major league pitchers, which would be one more than they currently sport. The Beerman's two best starters in '09 were Yovani Gallardo and "ppd. rain."

They have to find someone to overvalue Fielder, i.e., someone who believes his future value is reflected in his present line of .299/.412/.602, 46 home runs. For just these situations God created people like Ed Wade, the general manager who just spent $15 million on a middle reliever, apparently unaware that his roster in Houston boasts a grand total of five, mostly overpaid, Major League position players. It is the Ed Wades of baseball on whom competent GMs like Doug Melvin feast, and it's time for a little Thanksgiving in Milwaukee.

Not that I'm suggesting that Melvin pursue a deal with Houston. Other than Wandy Rodriguez, I don't know what the Astros could offer the Brewers, and I'm not sure they would part with their only above-average, below-35 pitcher. In fact, the Astros' roster probably comprises the worst combination of ability and age in the majors, so I'm not sure they could be anyone's trading partner, though I suspect there's some wool that Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman (Tampa Bay) could pull over their eyes. Maybe Wade would like another aged star for Hunter Pence or Michael Bourne.

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You haven't heard much about the Metropolitans this off-season and the reason is clear: no one knows what they have. If their three injured superstars return good as new, the Mets are a player in the NL East, not withstanding their pitching woes. But if David Wright's mystical power outage persists, Jose Reyes loses a quarter-of-a-step and Carlos Beltran begins sliding down Father Time's greasy slope, it could be a long and painful decade in Queens.

Assuming some kind of return to normalcy, the Mets can probably win with their current lineup, even if it's not firing on all cylinders. The mound corps needs an overhaul, but it's important that the Mets don't pile more leaden contracts into a team station wagon already in need of a tune-up. The question is whether the help they need for Johan Santana comes in the form of a refurbished Pelfrey and Maine or outside assistance.

If I were Omar Minaya, I'd lay in the weeds this off-season, strategically inking some inexpensive B-level deals to bolster the staff while moving a year closer to sloughing off the more burdensome contracts. That will give the brass a season to assess their team and a better free agent landscape in which to get busy next year. If that means another poor performance in '10, at least it's not a drain on future flexibility.

That's it for now. I'll have more Hot Stove musings between semesters as things develop.

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Getting A Clue in Pittsburgh

Trades lift the veil from a baseball front office regarding its philosophy and sophistication. The recent trade between Atlanta and Pittsburgh tells us that both franchises are moving in the right direction.

Deals involving players still in the larval stage are always hard to evaluate because what's changing hands is potential. In the Nate McLouth for three minor leaguers swap, we know what McLouth is, but few of us are in any position to make pass intelligent judgment on the others.

This much is clear, however: the days of Pirates brass grasping willy-nilly at bent straws is long gone. Ding dong the witch is dead. Not that happy days are here again -- the Bucs have another couple of losing campaigns in front of them -- but at least they have a clue. Trading players whose best days aren't ahead of them in order to stockpile prospects is a proven strategy. (See Marlins, Florida.) Whether these are the right prospects, we'll have to wait and see.

First, about McLouth and Atlanta. The Braves believe that Jordan Schafer is their future in center, but he's clearly not their present. He did a half-Mendoza with more strikeouts than at-bats (no, not really) in his 50 games with the big club before they did him the favor of returning him to the mother ship. The Mets and Phils have their issues, leading Atlanta GM Frank Wren to believe that his club can win the division this year with some wise personnel management. So he traded for a guy who is pretty clearly what he is: a .270 hitter with 30-home run power who can play a presentable center field. On the Braves, that qualifies as the superstar of the outfield when you consider the other flotsam and jetsam that washes up against Turner Field's walls.

By all accounts of the cogniscenti, McLouth's Gold Glove last year was a figment of the highlight reels and the imagination of baseball writers without imagination. They say he's a corner outfielder pressed into service, which is complimenting with faint criticism. McLouth is 27 and signed for three years at a reasonable price, making him an appealing catch for whom the Pirates hoped they could capture a windfall.

Whether they did is the open question. Gorkys Hernandez is an almost-ready outfielder with Brett Butler power. Charlie Morton is a promising pitcher, but so are lots of guys you never heard of. Jeff Locke, is a heat thrower who has yet to find the plate in Single-A. It could be, in the words of the Roches, a Big Nuthin'. It could pay dividends for years, just when the Pirates are ready to shine. What they gave up is a guy who will probably begin declining just when that time arrives.

So give the Pirates credit for their patience and recognition that you build a team from the bottom up. Give the Braves credit for striking while the iron is hot. Credit them further for demonstrating that sentimentality and winning are mutually exclusive, and dumping Tom Glavine in favor of better pitchers. Glavine is a HOFer and a good guy, but he's Atlanta's sixth, or maybe seventh, best pitcher. And that is not a guy who's going to help them win.

There's a decent chance that both these teams will lose more games than they win this year. But they both seem to have front offices who have the big picture in mind.
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