A Brave New Season

You've heard of addition by subtraction, but how about addition by inaction? That's the Atlanta Braves' intriguing formula for 2012.

For one thing, the addition necessary for the Tomahawks is one game. One added win last year would have put them in the post-season -- a 163rd game against St. Louis for the Wild Card. A two-win leap would have erased the September fade.

How do you make the leap while standing still? Easy: you get better. Presto.

Signing free agents is almost guaranteed to bloat the payroll, but not necessarily the win column. So Atlanta GM Frank Wren passed on all the big names, small names, stage names and aliases. While the Phillies inked a studly new closer, the Marlins imported a roster and the Nationals hired a pitching staff, Wren sat tight and promised that last year's collapse was ancient history.

In fact, Atlanta will be without two starting players from 2011. They flipped starter Derek Lowe to the Indians for salary relief and some minor league filler. They also let shortstop Alex Gonzalez take his talents to Milwaukee. They won't miss Lowe's waning days in Major League baseball, but AGon was a slick fielder who may be tough to replace.

What that leaves manager Fredi Gonzalez is another year of admirable defense and suspect offense. The starting staff is anchored by veteran Tim Hudson (16-10, 3.22)  and now-healthy Jair Jurrjens (13-9, 2.96). Promising youngins Brandon Beachy (7-3, 3.68), Tommy Hanson (11-7, 3.60) and Mike Minor (5-3, 4.14) will be pushed by rookie sensations Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran, who enjoyed cups of coffee in the bigs last season.

The bullpen is stacked, with Peter Moylan and Eric O'Flaherty fronting the unhittable endgame duo of Jonny Venters (1.82 ERA and 96 K in 88 innings) and Craig Kimbrel (2.10 ERA and 127 K in 77 innings). Atlanta relinquished the third fewest runs in baseball last year behind the historically good staffs in Philly and San Francisco, and they promise to repeat that this year.

Team brass is banking on offensive improvement up and down the lineup in 2012, and it's not clear that check will cash. There's certainly reason to expect Jayson Heyward 3.0 will more resemble the rookie phenom of 2010 (.277/.393/.476) than the sophomore slumper of 2011 (.227/.319/.389). A full season of Michael Bourne means they have speed atop the lineup and perhaps a legitimate leadoff threat if he can repeat his .363 OBP from 105 games in Houston. And Brian McCann is Brian McCann, the NL's premier catcher.

Second sacker Dan Uggla can't possibly repeat his 2011 first half (.185/.257/.365), but he probably can't repeat his second half either (.296/.379/.569), which means his full-season results -- .233/.311/.453 -- might not be far off the mark for 2012.

The Braves are expecting improvement from first baseman Freddie Freeman, who posted a respectable rookie season (.282/.346/.448), but a high BABIP and late season decline hint at regression. The same with Chipper Jones, the centenarian cornerman whose offensive utility and ability to stay on the field can only decline. Plan B at the hot corner involves plugging in utilityman Martin Prado, whom the Braves hope will return to his .300 hitting ways after a season with a .250 BABIP that dragged his batting average down to .260.

Plan A in a woeful outfield requires better performances from Heyward, Bourne and Prado. Plan B requires that the youth movement pays off and Heyward, Jose Constanza and Jordan Schafer suddenly turn into the Alou brothers. But that's not the way to bet, so there may be more futility outfielding ahead for the Braves. It could be worse at shortstop, where they're plugging rookie Tyler Pastornicky into the starting lineup without a track record or a net. The 170-pound righty posted a punchless .314 average in the high minors last year, so good luck with that.

There are plenty of assets on the farm, but most of them are arms. It's hard to see this team improving on its 10th place NL finish in runs scored. But a couple of unexpectedly good performances, coupled with awesome pitching prospects, means the Braves are in the hunt again in 2012. Buckle up: six weeks 'til Opening Day.

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Getting A Clue in Pittsburgh

Trades lift the veil from a baseball front office regarding its philosophy and sophistication. The recent trade between Atlanta and Pittsburgh tells us that both franchises are moving in the right direction.

Deals involving players still in the larval stage are always hard to evaluate because what's changing hands is potential. In the Nate McLouth for three minor leaguers swap, we know what McLouth is, but few of us are in any position to make pass intelligent judgment on the others.

This much is clear, however: the days of Pirates brass grasping willy-nilly at bent straws is long gone. Ding dong the witch is dead. Not that happy days are here again -- the Bucs have another couple of losing campaigns in front of them -- but at least they have a clue. Trading players whose best days aren't ahead of them in order to stockpile prospects is a proven strategy. (See Marlins, Florida.) Whether these are the right prospects, we'll have to wait and see.

First, about McLouth and Atlanta. The Braves believe that Jordan Schafer is their future in center, but he's clearly not their present. He did a half-Mendoza with more strikeouts than at-bats (no, not really) in his 50 games with the big club before they did him the favor of returning him to the mother ship. The Mets and Phils have their issues, leading Atlanta GM Frank Wren to believe that his club can win the division this year with some wise personnel management. So he traded for a guy who is pretty clearly what he is: a .270 hitter with 30-home run power who can play a presentable center field. On the Braves, that qualifies as the superstar of the outfield when you consider the other flotsam and jetsam that washes up against Turner Field's walls.

By all accounts of the cogniscenti, McLouth's Gold Glove last year was a figment of the highlight reels and the imagination of baseball writers without imagination. They say he's a corner outfielder pressed into service, which is complimenting with faint criticism. McLouth is 27 and signed for three years at a reasonable price, making him an appealing catch for whom the Pirates hoped they could capture a windfall.

Whether they did is the open question. Gorkys Hernandez is an almost-ready outfielder with Brett Butler power. Charlie Morton is a promising pitcher, but so are lots of guys you never heard of. Jeff Locke, is a heat thrower who has yet to find the plate in Single-A. It could be, in the words of the Roches, a Big Nuthin'. It could pay dividends for years, just when the Pirates are ready to shine. What they gave up is a guy who will probably begin declining just when that time arrives.

So give the Pirates credit for their patience and recognition that you build a team from the bottom up. Give the Braves credit for striking while the iron is hot. Credit them further for demonstrating that sentimentality and winning are mutually exclusive, and dumping Tom Glavine in favor of better pitchers. Glavine is a HOFer and a good guy, but he's Atlanta's sixth, or maybe seventh, best pitcher. And that is not a guy who's going to help them win.

There's a decent chance that both these teams will lose more games than they win this year. But they both seem to have front offices who have the big picture in mind.
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It's Smarter to Be Lucky Than It's Lucky to Be Smart

Humans like to ascribe causes to effects. We like to connect meaning to events. We're loath to admit how much of life is simply dumb luck, and how often it is not simply "the residue of design."

That's why mis-employing statistics in baseball can really distort our perspective on actual performance.

I'm watching the Braves-Mets game in Atlanta. (Take I-26 west to Columbia for 100 miles and then west on I-20 for about 150 miles.) One out in inning two and Tim Hudson's pitch entices Carlos Delgado's left hip and right elbow to snap in opposite directions. The result is a puff ball that bubbles just to the right of second base. Shortstop Yunel Escobar gets a late jump and the ball scoots under his glove.

"Renteria would have had that," I noted to Tater, who doesn't seem to remember who played short for the '07 Braves.

Rightfielder Ryan Church follows that by grounding one under the mis-timed dive of second-baseman Martin Prado. Delgado rumbles safely to third when Chipper Jones goes to the wrong side of the runner on Jeff Francouer's throw.

"That kind of defense," I mutter to Tater, "is going to inflate Brave ERAs." She seems more focused on the ongoing petting.

Angel Pagan bats with first and third and smacks a double-play ball right at Escobar. He flips to Prado who fumbles the transfer, allowing Delgado to score and the inning to continue.

So Tim Hudson, a groundball pitcher, lures three consecutive batters into hitting groundballs, every one of which should have been an out. Instead, he's given up two hits and an earned run. Pagan, who did the only thing he had to avoid gets an RBI. Delgado, who was fooled worse than a Mugabe supporter, is credited with a hit and a run scored despite a semi-sorta-slide into third that would embarrass a Little Leaguer.

Multiply that by 162 games, and it's easy to see how much of a role luck can play in team results and personal statistics alike.