Showing posts with label Hot Stove League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hot Stove League. Show all posts

06 December 2010

Swinging Bunts


Been quite a hot stove already and they haven't even lit the pilot light at the Winter Meetings. The Nats watched Adam Dunn depart and signed Jayson Werth for too much for too long to hit much less than Dunn. On the other hand, he can run and catch, two skills missing from the Dunn collection.

After Kenny Williams inked Dunn for the Sox, he started after incumbent first baseman Paul Konerko. That would push Dunn to his natural defensive position -- DH -- and give Chicago some mid-lineup oomph. Next, they'll need some relief pitching with the departures of Bobby Jenks and Scott Linebrink.

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Jed Hoyer appears to be continuing his apprenticeship to Theo Epstein, despite his new employment as Padres GM. Epstein schooled him out of Adrian Gonzalez for a trio of minor league maybes. Boston can move Kevin Youklis to third and let Adrian Beltre convert his walk-year revival into someone else's over-payment. It's an offensive coup and a defensive wash. A-Gone makes the difficult transition to the tougher league, but leaves Petco pitcher-heaven for the Fens. In the unlikely event Gonzalez leaves town after a year, the Sox get two sandwich picks (between the first and second rounds) to replace the stash they sent San Diego.

As for the Friars, that bottled lightning of '10 won't strike again in '11. They managed not to get back a single majors-ready player for the best hitter they've had in a decade. Find them at the bottom of the NL West playing to near-empty stadiums next year.

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Shaun Marcum is 37-25, 3.85 in the brutal AL Beast with all the chocolaty wholesome goodness that accompanies that pedigree. Plus he's 28 and earns less than a million dollars. So naturally, Toronto jettisoned Marcum for ... a minor leaguer. Man, that had better be some fantastical minor leaguage. (Word is that 2B Brett Lawrie was the Brews' top prospect, and a can't-miss edition at that.)

Actually, it's more sensible than it sounds. Toronto has more good arms than the Israeli military and a black hole where its lineup should be. Milwaukee has Rickie Weeks clogging up the keystone for the foreseeable decade and could always use a reliable #2 starter to bulk up an already above-average staff. The Blue Jays get chocolate in their peanut butter; the Brews get peanut butter in their chocolate.

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Now we know where Mark Reynolds' career will go to die: Baltimore. The O's sent a pair of journeymen relief arms to Arizona for the all-or-nothing cornerman. This is the D-Backs telling Reynolds they just want to be friends. Relief pitchers are easier to find than Waldo in a snowstorm.

Reynolds comes off a year in which he achieved notoriety as the best .198 hitter in history. He smacked 32 homers, walked 83 times and scooped up everything but the infield dirt at the hot corner. Baltimore snags him at a big discount. The question is, what can they do even with him?

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Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford are the big prizes, but the most interesting signing will involve a masochist GM who despises his manager. I wouldn't sign Manny Ramirez and the film rights to his life story for two wooden nickels, but someone's going to commit the GDP of Haiti to him. ($992,657) He can't play the field or stay out of trouble, but someone's going to take a chance that he can still hit. (Answer: with his eyes closed...if he can be bothered to.)

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Baseball's Hall of Shame now includes Pat Gillick; Jesse Haines, a slightly above-average 20s-30s hurler; Johnny Evers, whose .270/.356/.334 lifetime achievement is offset by his unequaled ability to be named in a catchy poem; Phil Rizzuto's mouth; journeyman 19th century outfielder Tommy McCarthy who was worth 19 wins in 13 years over a replacement-level player; and Bowie Kuhn, who was so feckless he couldn't get elected into the Bowie Kuhn Hall of Fame.

The Hall of Shame does not include: all-time great Shoeless Joe Jackson, all-time hits leader Pete Rose; Marvin Miller, who whipped Bowie Kuhn like a rented mule uninterrupted for two decades; and home run savant Mark McGwire. It appears likely that the Hall will also fail to include Barry Bonds, the greatest player of his generation; and Roger Clemens, the greatest pitcher of several generations.

So remind me, what exactly is the purpose of this institution?
b

22 December 2009

Not Miguel Cabrera, Mind You

Veteran righty Jason Marquis just signed a $15 million, two-year deal with the Nationals to eat 200 innings with below-average results for an up-and-coming staff. Another veteran rightly, Javier Vazquez, just fetched Melky Cabrera for the Braves in a trade with the Yankees.

What do these two statements have in common? Evidentally, nothing.

In a time when arms are worth their weight in highly-enriched uranium, the Braves parlayed an above-average starter with a below-market contract -- he's due $9 million/year -- for... Melky Cabrera? Is there any commodity more abundant in baseball than fourth outfielders? Didn't they just cut Ryan Church and trade Jeff Francoeur? What, Ryan Spillborghs wasn't available? The Royals wouldn't part with Willie Bloomquist? Gabe Kapler's demanding his own conditioning coach?

This is a miserable waste of a valuable commodity by Atlanta. Frank Wren must have had a plane to catch when he made this deal, because a #3 starter should fetch real value, not the third trombone in the nobody parade.

There were some prospects in this deal, so maybe one of them is the second coming of Joe Dimaggio. Even then, the Braves' plan was supposed to be to flip one of their surplus quality starters for a big banging outfielder who could solidify a gelatin lineup and challenge the Phillies for the division title NOW. What they got was Melky Cabrera, all .274/.336/.416 of him. (That would be the numbers from his best year -- last -- which  marked year five of the "Melky the Future Star" show.) The Braves needed a hitter, not another edition of Garret Anderson.

Here's another data point in the argument against us Yankee haters. Credit Brian Cashman yet again for conning a perfectly respectable GM into giving him a good starter -- Vazquez has been worth 13 wins over the last three years relative to a replacement level pitcher -- in exchange for a replaceable part. This deal had little to do with New York's advantages, monetary or otherwise, and everything to do with Atlanta misjudging the value of a precious commodity.

Melky Cabrera!



29 November 2009

Major League Lily-Gilding

Just in case you're still munching on that old chestnut about the Yankees not being the only team with  financial advantages, here comes Exhibit Z: Roy Halladay will reportedly approve a one-way ticket to NY despite an ixnay on the adetray in his contract.

If I recall correctly, NY is not shorthand for Cincinnati. Or more pertinently, for Boston or Anaheim. The Yankees don't just flash the most Benjamins; they also offer Broadway, a market of 40 million eyeballs, outfield monuments and 27 shiny rings. It gives them advantages that even free-spending competitors will never have.

That Toronto would dump their ace on their own division just demonstrates how miserably desperate they are. NY is reportedly prepared to trade some prospects before they sign Halladay to another mega-contract, but there is no way the Blue Jays get anything like equal value. Roy Halladay is literally worth more than the entire Yankee farm system, which right now has three serious prospects, one of whom lacks a position.

There is some serious lily-gilding here, and I'm not talking about the pitching staff in the Bronx. We don't actually need any more evidence that the playing field is tilted steeply towards the Yankees. But that's what a Halladay-to-NYY transaction would be. At the rate we're going, why don't they just have the AL All-Star Team play in pinstripes. Imagine how exciting and unexpected it would be if they win the World Series.
b

01 February 2009

The First Robin League

The Hot Stove League is threatening to drag into the First Robin League as major free agents remain on the market. The economic decline has obviously played a role there, but there must be something else at work.

Three of the most notable free agents still available are Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu and Manny Ramirez. I picked these three particularly because they're all outfielders and, in the case of Manny and Dunn, possess all the grace on land of a penguin. Here are their performance from last year:

Player G R 2B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+ HBP GIDP
Ramirez 153 102 36 37 121 3 0 87 124 .332 .430 .601 164 11 17
Dunn
----158 79 23 40 100 2 1 122 164 .236 .386 .513 129 7 7
Abreu---156 100 39 20 100 22 11 73 109 .276 .371 .471 120 1 14

(OPS+ is a measure of on base percentage plus slugging average compared to league average. An OPS of 129 is 29% better than league average, which is excellent. An OPS of 164 is MVP territory.)


Manny and agent Scott Boras seem to have painted themselves into a corner, demanding five years and bailout-sized dollars. Ramirez is still a one-man offensive wrecking crew, to be sure, but he's offensive in other ways and young children should avert their eyes when he's afield. The idea of team chemistry is vastly over-rated, but front offices know that bringing him on requires buying Tylenol in bulk. And of course, he's 37 and would be 42 by the end of a five-year deal. Signing him to anything more than two years is sheer folly, and it helps to have a centerfielder who can yell loud enough to wake the leftfielder when the ball is struck his way.

The case of Adam Dunn is an enigma. Ripped by Blue Jays GM JP Ricciardi last season, he is viewed as lackadaisical and inert in the field and has generated little interest around the majors. This is a 28-year-old who has recorded 40 or more home runs and .365 OBP or higher each of the last five seasons. Six-and-a-half foot boppers like Dunn don't tend to age well, but he should continue to provide terror at the plate for the next three years, at least. Bat him after Jose Reyes and David Wright and ahead of Carlos Beltran (or the other way around) and enjoy the basepath merry-go-round.

Apparently some AL clubs would like to sign him to DH but he has rejected moving off left field. That certainly limits his appeal, but there are still plenty of teams that can swallow is defense for 40 HRs and a .386 OBP. For an interesting and spot-on Dunn reckoning, link below to MLB.com.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090120&content_id=3750928&vkey=news_ml

Bobby Abreu is neither defensive liability nor slugger, but he's still an impressive offensive asset. Because he seemed to fall off the table following the '05 Home Run Derby, it's easy to assume he's older than 34. This is a guy who batted safely more than 39% of the time for nine straight years until 2006. Whether his decline is age-related, Yankee-related or Bronx-related we'll soon find out if someone else signs him. Unlike Dunn and Manny, Abreu has a howitzer of an arm and thus has some defensive value as a right fielder. A lot of teams can use this guy.

Of course, the other side of the equation may be the sticking point. Dunn made $13 million, Abreu $16 million and Ramirez $19 million last year and they may all be looking for raises to compensate for the 35% decline in their stock portfolios. The market -- yes, even the baseball labor market -- does seem to have contracted this year, as evidenced by Andy Pettite and Jason Varitek's flashy new pay cuts. Dunn, Abreu and Ramirez may need time to accept that before they sign less lucrative deals. Donations in their behalf can be sent in care of my home address.