If you lived in Phoenix -- or Tucson or Flagstaff, for that matter -- you'd be hearing a lot of "Trade Zack Greinke" talk. It's not hard to understand: the Dbacks are unfathomably bad and Greinke is more like an actor in community theater doing a bad Zack Greinke impersonation, complete with a 4.17 ERA and a $200+ million contract.
Certainly if this sorry outfit, skidding to 95 losses, were considering a massive deal with Greinke now, you'd dismiss that as dumb on the scale of building a wall along the Mexican border. (Come to think of it, Phoenix is close to the Mexican border; maybe we can get Mexico to pay Greinke's contract.)
It's been reported that the Dodgers offered to take Greinke's contract off Arizona's hands; i.e., without sending anything back in return. The team's brain trust -- if you want to be generous to team president Tony LaRussa and general manager Dave Stewart -- scoffed at the offer.
The contract was rubbish (from the team's point of view; Mrs. Greinke, I'm sure, thinks it's genius) the day it was inked because it assumed that Greinke would continue to pitch like his 2015 career year (19-4, 1.66) rather than like the 32-year-old, 14-9, 3.40 pitcher he is.
Nonetheless, Greinke is about the only mound asset Arizona has. They are last in the league in ERA even with their ace and 42-73 without him.
And while their offense has been inconsistent, it positively pulsates with talent. A trio of stars -- first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, outfielder A.J. Pollock (who's been hurt all season) and keystoner Jean Segura -- is complemented by a passel of promising young players -- hot cornerman Jake Lamb, swingman Chris Owings, outfielder Yasmany Tomas and catcher Wellington Castillo, to name four. That's a solid core to build around for next year and beyond. (In addition, any team with a Tuffy and a Socrates has yin and yang covered.)
Relief pitching can be found, often by keeping the arms already on the roster. So starting pitching is this team's Achilles heel next year and it can't be healed on the free agent market. There won't be anything out there unless Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart want to empty the vault -- assuming that's not already it's state -- for Edinson Volquez or Andrew Cashner. No kidding, those are the top names on the 2017 free agent pitching market.
No, the Dbacks have a chance to be quite improved next season, but only if they keep the only reliable starter they have. They need to scuttle the front office experiment and get a real team president and GM. Then develop the impressive talent on board, find a couple of third starters and run Greinke out 35 times. They could be the Miami Marlins of 2017.
Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it in their own home ballpark. The Arizona Diamondbacks made the big splashes this off-season when they signed Zack Greinke to a gargantuan contract and traded the #1 draft pick for Shelby Miller. The plan hasn't panned out, at least not so far, as Arizona stands 37-47, 15 games out of first. With the trade deadline bearing down, questions about their future abound.
There is precedent for the Snakes in the very recent past.
The 2015 "Sadres"
In the winter preceding the 2015 season, the San Diego Padres bet the house on a pennant. Fledgling GM A.J. Preller scooped up the toxic contracts of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and James Shields. He flipped assets for Wil Myers, Will Middlebrooks and Derek Norris. Added to what appeared to be a strong foundation of arms, there was hope in SoCal following another 77-win season
Alas, the big names stumbled, the defense cratered and even the pitching teetered, leaving San Diego three games worse than the year before. By the time of Opening Day this year, Upton, Middlebrooks and Shields were gone. Norris and Kemp sport OBPs of .265 and .277 respectively for the 33-46 Pads. However bad the team was in 2014, it's both worse and further behind today.
The 2013 "Blooper" Jays
The 2013 Toronto Blue Jays have a similar story, though a happier ending. Frustrated by two decades of soul-crushing mediocrity, GM Alex Anthopoulos fashioned what some thought was a World Series roster, banking Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Macier Izturis and some smaller pieces. To obtain them, he sacrificed, among other things, Noah Syndergaard and Travis D'Arnaud.
Reyes and Cabrera missed a full season between them in 2015. Dickey's Cy Young mojo disappeared and Buehrle suffered the lowest WAR of his career. Johnson endured the last 81 innings of his career in 6.20 ERA misery. Izturis's .597 OPS cost his team a win. The Jays drowned in the AL East.
Toronto didn't panic though, and it was rewarded. Reyes and Cabrera played solid seasons in 2014. Dickey and Buehrle rebounded. The team jumped back over the .500 mark and set the table for a division title a year later.
Can Phoenix Rise?
Which of these teams is the Diamondbacks? The answer remains to be seen, of course, but each of the three made its move following a season of roughly 85 losses, so they're all in the same starting place.
Miller and Grienke, in addition to incumbent stars Paul Goldschmidt and AJ Pollock, aren't going anywhere in the near term and are all good bets for continued stardom. That already distinguishes them from San Diego.
Moreover, there are some solid pieces behind that quartet. Jake Lamb, 25, looks like the future at third. Keystoner Jean Segura is back to his on-base stylings. With young outfielders Yasmany Tomas and Chris Owings, this team has the capacity to field a formidable lineup.
The hill has been their Achilles heal, to the extent that a snake can have such a thing. It's going to take better seasons from Miller, Robby Ray and Patrick Corbin to catapult the Dbacks in future seasons.
Arizona needs to restock its farm and develop some talent around the four stars. They also need to be patient around the trade deadline and avoid the temptation to move product. If they succeed, and the winds of fortune blow their way, they can reprise the Blue Jays' experience.
If you lived in Phoenix -- or Tucson or Flagstaff, for that matter -- you'd be hearing a lot of "Trade Zack Greinke" talk. It's not hard to understand: the Dbacks are unfathomably bad and Greinke is more like an actor in community theater doing a bad Zack Greinke impersonation, complete with a 4.17 ERA and a $200+ million contract.
