Maybe the Snakes Are Better Than We Thought? Nah.

Entering 2017, one could be forgiven for looking kindly upon the chances of the team in Phoenix, anchored as it is by some real talent. Zack Greinke is a true rotation ace. Paul Goldschmidt is a quiet superstar -- maybe the best first baseman in the game. A.J. Pollack and Jake Lamb are stars and David Peralta is another good outfielder.

Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, the measure of a team isn't its cleanup hitter or its ace, but its  #8 hitter, its fourth starter and its set-up guy. Thanks in large part to the disastrous front office tenure of Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart, the Dbacks' cupboard is bare beyond those players named.

Coming into the season, the Dbacks were projected to field among the worst players in the game at catcher, second base, shortstop, and left field.  Add to that the worst bullpen in the Majors, and you have too much for Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb and A.J. Pollack to overcome.

Well, we're 46 games into the season and Arizona has a .587 winning percentage, "on pace" for a 95-win campaign. The reason, in its entirety, is that players at the above-mentioned positions have performed better than league average. When you're expected to be the worst team in the league at your position, and instead your 12th or 13th our of 30, that's a big improvement.

And maybe the team is better than we thought they were. Maybe the kindly lookers were right about them. But probably not.

New research by Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs shows that even though pre-season analytical projections don't have much of a track record, they are more than twice as predictive of a team's performance after Game 50 as a team's performance in the first 50 games of the season is. In other words, the first 50 games can be very deceptive and bear very little relationship to how good a team actually is.


What 's that telling us about the Diamondbacks? It's telling us to take them with a grain of salt. In fact, consider every team's start the same way. If you're a fan of the Giants, Mets and Blue Jays, that's good news. If you like the Brewers, Rockies and Twins, it's not so much.

Just remember one thing: the first 50 games do count. So if the Dbacks are 10 game over .500 and play a mere .500 the rest of the way, they will end the season at 86-76. And that could get them into the Wild Card.

Should Snakes Sell Off Greinke? Not Just No, Hell No!

If you lived in Phoenix -- or Tucson or Flagstaff, for that matter -- you'd be hearing a lot of "Trade Zack Greinke" talk. It's not hard to understand: the Dbacks are unfathomably bad and Greinke is more like an actor in community theater doing a bad Zack Greinke impersonation, complete with a 4.17 ERA and a $200+ million contract.

Certainly if this sorry outfit, skidding to 95 losses, were considering a massive deal with Greinke now, you'd dismiss that as dumb on the scale of building a wall along the Mexican border. (Come to think of it, Phoenix is close to the Mexican border; maybe we can get Mexico to pay Greinke's contract.)

It's been reported that the Dodgers offered to take Greinke's contract off Arizona's hands; i.e., without sending anything back in return. The team's brain trust -- if you want to be generous to team president Tony LaRussa and general manager Dave Stewart -- scoffed at the offer.

The contract was rubbish (from the team's point of view; Mrs. Greinke, I'm sure, thinks it's genius) the day it was inked because it assumed that Greinke would continue to pitch like his 2015 career year (19-4, 1.66) rather than like the 32-year-old, 14-9, 3.40 pitcher he is. 

Nonetheless, Greinke is about the only mound asset Arizona has. They are last in the league in ERA even with their ace and 42-73 without him.

And while their offense has been inconsistent, it positively pulsates with talent. A trio of stars  -- first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, outfielder A.J. Pollock (who's been hurt all season) and keystoner Jean Segura -- is complemented by a passel of promising young players -- hot cornerman Jake Lamb, swingman Chris Owings, outfielder Yasmany Tomas and catcher Wellington Castillo, to name four. That's a solid core to build around for next year and beyond. (In addition, any team with a Tuffy and a Socrates has yin and yang covered.)

Relief pitching can be found, often by keeping the arms already on the roster. So starting pitching is this team's Achilles heel next year and it can't be healed on the free agent market. There won't be anything out there unless Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart want to empty the vault -- assuming that's not already it's state -- for Edinson Volquez or Andrew Cashner. No kidding, those are the top names on the 2017 free agent pitching market.

No, the Dbacks have a chance to be quite improved next season, but only if they keep the only reliable starter they have. They need to scuttle the front office experiment and get a real team president and GM. Then develop the impressive talent on board, find a couple of third starters and run Greinke out 35 times. They could be the Miami Marlins of 2017.