More Answers To Questions You Didn't Ask

You may have been wondering -- or maybe you haven't. Someone in the last week has posed each of these questions and so I answer them here:

Q. Where will Jose Bautista and Mark Trumbo end up?
A. After years of slamming its finger in the same door, the market is now properly valuing aging, immobile sluggers, and it isn't pretty for their agents. I believed one of the former Blue Jays would wind up back with Toronto because they obviously have a hole to fill at that position. With the parrot carrier now poised to bash homers in Cleveland for millions less than he was seeking, I wouldn't be surprised if Joey Bats re-ups at a discount with the Jays. He isn't exactly winning Miss Congeniality votes from other teams. And Baltimore seems to be in hottest pursuit of Trumbo, but also at pennies on his expected dollar.

Q. What are the Mets going to do with their outfield situation?
A. Give Terry Collins headaches? Best guess, unless something dramatic happens: rotate Cespedes and Granderson through centerfield, giving Lagares spot starts and and shuffling him in as a defensive replacement late in games. Send the non-CF Cespedes/Grandy to right and leave Comforto in left to show he can hit. Jay Bruce is a righty bat off the bench. Lots of options if someone gets hurt or doesn't pan out.

Q. Who are your World Series favorites right now?
A. Answering this question is a fool's errand, but I'm game. The World Champion Cubs are the same team as last year, flipping Dexter Fowler for Kyle Schwarber and Aroldis Chapman for Wade Davis. In the AL, the Red Sox are poised to allow about 400 runs next year. The Cy Young winner is their #3 starter.


Q. Now that Bud Selig, who presided over the Steroid Era, is in the Hall of Fame, shouldn't we vote in guys like Bonds, Clemens and McGwire?
A. I don't really see that logic. Selig didn't cheat. That said, I've always been in favor of putting those guys in the Hall.

Here's the problem: you've got Bowie Kuhn in the Hall of Fame, a guy who had an 0-162 record fighting the players' union and who could hardly name a single accomplishment as the commissioner. You've got Gaylord Perry in the Hall, an inveterate cheater who got caught on the field altering baseballs. You've got Lloyd Waner, a thoroughly average Major Leaguer, in the Hall because he batted .316 for his career even though that was his signature skill and team batting averages topped .300 in the '30s. But you want to exclude the top player and pitcher of their era because there's evidence they took an unfair advantage during a portion of their career. It makes no sense.


Q. With the Braves signing all these old former stars, do they really think they have a chance this year?
A. Puff you're inhaler, Braves fans. These guys are just filler. They're signed to one-year deals. If they play well they'll be shipped out mid-season for more prospects.

Q. What do you make of the Diamondbacks?
A. Much like the United States of America, they hired a pair of amateur hacks to run the organization with predictable results. Now they've gotten professional management in there and find themselves with some promising young assets across the infield. Their task going forward will be to acquire some rotation pieces behind Zack Grienke or they'll never contend. Easier said than done.

Q.Not a baseball question, but what do you think of star college football players skipping their bowl games to prepare for the draft?
A. How dare they act in their own best interest! Major college football is about amateur athletics, not about some money grab, says the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl.

Q. If Mike Trout played at replacement level for five more years and then retired after the requisite 10-year career, would he get into the Hall of Fame? How about if he was average over the next five years?
A. No and no, because you need more than five stellar seasons to make the Hall of Fame. But the premise of your question is correct. Mike Trout is the greatest player in baseball history over his first five seasons. (He was also the greatest over his first one, two, three and four.) Give him three more Trout seasons and then five bad or mediocre years and he's in.

Q. What about Sandy Koufax? He was a below average pitcher who made the Hall of Fame with five great seasons.
A. Good point. Koufax got extrapolated credit for all the years he didn't pitch after retiring early. Had he pitched at replacement level for three seasons following that unbelievable run I doubt he gets in.

Q. Will the Red Sox regret trading Clay Bucholz? You can never have too much pitching right?
A. They won't regret getting $10 million closer to the luxury tax cap.

Q. Should the Mets trade Jay Bruce?
A. Okay, you're the GM of another team who could use a big bat. The Mets offer you a 30-year-old .250 hitter with 30-homer pop and mediocre defensive skills. What would you give up to get that? For now, I think the Mets should be glad that they have some hitting options to back that pitching staff.

Q. What do you see from the vantage point of San Diego?
A. The ocean.

Q. Come on, I mean what are the Padres' prospects for 2017.
A. At least they have the ocean.

Happy holidays to all!

Ten Performances No One Could Have Predicted

Every year, for grins and giggles, I post Baseball Prospectus's pre-season projections for teams and individual players. They're as accurate as long-term weather forecasts.

And to prove it, let's talk about Adam Duvall. Here's what SB Nation said in March about Duvall, a spare part in a trade that sent fourth starter Mike Leake to the Giants.

"A bench bat. Duvall plays the corner outfield and infield spots with something that couldn't quite be called aplomb. He has enough power to run a fastball here and there, and enough plate discipline to be a decent pinch-hit bat. He could be a useful bit part as the Reds reboot. That's it. You don't have to read more."

And here's what the 28-year-old Kentuckian has done: He's smacked 22 league-leading home runs in 268 at bats while posting a .587 slugging mark.

Adam Duvall is this year's Shane Spencer, the Yankee phenom who batted .373 and crushed 10 homers in the final 27 games of 1998 and ended his career mostly as a backup with a .262 average and 57 dingers. Duvall flashes iron at a variety of positions, runs like molasses going uphill and sports a .287 OBP even in his surprising breakout season. So no one is writing epic poems about the majesty of his play. Still, the experts thought he'd be a bench bat.

2. Mark Trumbo -- You forgot about Trumbo, didn't you? Once a 30-HR slugger for the Angels, he averaged 18 homers and 64 RBIs, posted a .303 OBP and averaged 0.2 WAR per season the last two years while butchering first base. A liability on the basepaths, his baseball hourglass seemed to be running out of sand, even after the Orioles picked him up this off-season from the Mariners for a relief pitcher.

Lo and behold, Trumbo leads the Majors in yard blasts and his .331 OBP has helped him earn two wins for the O's, anchoring a record-slugging Baltimore lineup. PECOTA projected him for 0.6 WAR all season.

3. Steven Wright -- He put instant coffee in the microwave and went back in time. He spilled spot remover on his dog and made it disappear. He bought some batteries but they weren't included.

No wait, that's Stephen Wright. Steven Wright is a right-handed knuckleballer for the Red Sox who bounced between the bullpen and the rotation last year, and had to compete for the last spot in the Boston rotation this spring. This year he's leading the AL in ERA, complete games and fewest home runs allowed. If you failed to pick him up in your fantasy league, where he was certainly available, the joke's on you.

4. Trevor Story -- Here's the story of a man named Trevor, who was definitely a prospect in the Rockies' farm system. In fact, he was rated their 11th best before connecting on a pair of bombs in game one against Zack Greinke. Story set April on fire and has cooled since, but his 19 homers and good defense at short have added two wins to the Colorado ledger, and it's not like anyone predicted that.

5. Danny Salazar -- It's not like Salazar came out of nowhere -- he went 14-10, 3.45 and whiffed 195 batters for Cleveland last season. But he's broken out this year -- 10-3, 2.22 with 107 Ks in 93 innings. The projection systems pegged him for 12-10, 3.56.

6. Carlos Beltran --Add 39 years, two broken-down knees, one lifeless glove and a useless 2014 and you get Carlos Beltran. The question going into the season wasn't whether he'd make the All-Star team; it was whether he'd garner playing time in the Bronx.

Well, the borderline Hall of Famer is making his case, with a .297 batting average and 19 home runs. As long as you don't look at the low walk rate, the putrid defense and the complete loss of speed, his play sure looks like more than the notch above average that it is.

7. Tyler Chatwood -- His 8-4, 3.15 is a lot more impressive when you realize he pitches in Denver, Home of the Dinger. The projections had him at 5-6, 4.30 after missing 2015 with his second Tommy John surgery. Still, he's owned in only a third of fantasy leagues, suggesting that no one can believe what they're seeing.

8. Wil Myers -- Remember when Wil Myers was the best rookie on the planet, and then the worst sophomore, then given up on by the Royals, then fading into oblivion -- all in the span of three years? This spring, Dave Cameron of Just A Bit Outside wondered, "Are Wil Myers' flaws fixable?"

Looks like it, Dave! Myers has already established career highs in homers, RBIs, runs scored and OPS in half a season in Petco, where bats go to die. He's the best player on San Diego this year, which isn't saying much, but gets you an All-Star berth.

9. Chris Tillman -- Every year, Baltimore confounds the pundits by competing in the AL East when all the number-crunching says they shouldn't. One of the key reasons is one hurler or another outperforming his expectations by several orders of magnitude. 

Tillman has done this before -- four times, in fact. But his inability to strike anyone out led to doubts about his future and a 4.99 ERA last year. This year his 91 Ks in 99 frames has him at 10-2, 3.71 as the ace of the American League East pacesetters.

10. Aledmys Diaz -- It's pronounced Uh-led-mas, which is important, because no one in the U.S. knew that three months ago. The only Aledmys in MLB history, this Cuban free agent showed promise in the Minors and was penciled in to help replace Jhonny Peralta at short for the Cards this season. 

Few people projected full-time play for him, much less a rookie performance of .316/.374/.517 and 10 home runs in his first 75 games.

Bonus! Rich Hill -- Hill was rattling around the independent leagues a year ago and hadn't started a Major League contest since 2009. In 11 starts with Oakland this year he's 8-3, 2.25, whiffing 10 hitters per nine and earning the same value as Miguel Cabrera. You can look it up!